If one thing is inevitable in the backcountry, it is decision-making. What are the features of decisions in the backcountry that make them so challenging? In this unit, we will take a “peak under the hood” of decisions, decision makers and the decision making process.

By the end of this unit you will be able to:

• Explain why it is important to differentiate decisions, decision making and decision makers, despite the fact they are inter-related.
• Differentiate the features of decisions that are relatively “automatic” from those that require a more deliberative and systematic approach.
• Appreciate the attributes of decisions in the backcountry – complexity, uncertainty, competing alternatives, multiple objectives, and different values and perspectives may lead to different choices.
• Explain why decision-making algorithms and checklists should not be used as “stand alone” prescriptive instruments to “tell you what to do”.

Dr. Sue J. Goldie is a physician, public health analyst and decision scientist from Harvard University, who has decades of experience conducting research into how to make the best decisions possible for improving the health of entire populations. In this unit, she will share insights from the field of decision science, a discipline focused on “decision-making under uncertainty”.

Thanks Dr. Goldie! As Sue discussed above, decisions come in all varieties, from very simple and fast to highly complex. As decisions become more complex, especially when the stakes are high, we need to adopt a systematic approach to ensure we are making the best decision possible given the circumstances. Let's review what we just discussed!

Decisions.

We compared two kinds of decisions –those that are simple, fast and relatively automatic and those that are tougher and require more deliberative thought.

Simple, Fast, Automatic: Why are these decisions so seemingly straightforward and automatic?

• The consequences of your choice are trivial (e.g., what did you eat for breakfast?)
• You repeatedly face the same decision and get immediate feedback about your choice each time (e.g., what route to take to work today?)
• You are an expert and have learned to recognize a “pattern” of individual factors and repeatedly see that pattern (e.g., doctor diagnoses a rash in 2 minutes)

Even seemingly simple decisions can be vulnerable to “human errors”! (Stay tuned!)

Tough, Slow, Deliberative: What are the attributes of these tougher decisions?

• They are complex – lots of influential factors to consider!
• There are many sources of uncertainty –both the likelihood of an event and the magnitude of the consequences – as well as the uncertainty of all of the contributing factors for both!
• There are competing alternatives – including “doing nothing” – but you must select one!
• There may be multiple objectives –and these may be valued differently by different people
• Different perspectives may lead to different choices.

Fast and Slow Thinking: Sound Familiar? Daniel Khanemann's book "Thinking Fast and Slow" made this idea famoufs- see the video below (TO BE PRODUCED) for a quick explanation.

Decision-Making.

When decisions have these attributes – complexity, uncertainty, competing alternatives, multiple objectives - they benefit from a systematic approach to decision making. While such approaches vary, from decision-making algorithms and tools to simple checklists, they are all intended to provide “cognitive scaffolding” to you help manage the numerous uncertainties and factors relevant to your decision. Generally, these algorithms and tools are most useful as initial “baseline guidance”, which can then be adapted to the particular context you find yourself in.

Now that you are familiar with the attributes of complex decisions, it will be fairly intuitive to consider the architecture of a decision problem. In other words, what are the key ingredients or “elements” of a decision problem? In this next video, Dr. Goldie is going to quickly walk us through how a decision scientist would answer this question!

Let’s review! What are the main questions we might ask ourselves when faced with a decision problem?

1. What is the actual decision? What is the timing of that decision? Is it a single decision or a sequential decision?
2. What is the objective? What do you want to achieve? If there is more than one objective, which is most important?
3. What are all the alternatives? Did you include all possible choices, including the “do nothing” option?
4. What are all the “chances” or uncertainties? What is the information that you have and what new information do you need?
5. What are the potential outcomes or consequences? What is the magnitude of those consequences?
6. What are other key considerations?

• Values versus objectives: Values are the things that matter to us. Objectives are what we specifically want to achieve. Values and objectives overlap and both are influential on the decision context.
• Tradeoffs: Most complex decisions with uncertainty, multiple objectives and competing alternatives will have tradeoffs. The key is to maximize benefits and minimize negative consequences.
• Decision context: This is the setting or circumstances in which the decision occurs.
• Is this an individual decision or a group decision?
• What is the character of the decision? (e.g., immediate, delayed, sequential?)
• What are important influential factors? (e.g., time-pressure, fatigue, etc.)

Decision-Makers.

There is also the importance of understanding the “decision maker” who is engaged in “decision making”. We acknowledged there are a range of factors, referred to as “cognitive biases, heuristics, and human factors”, which we are vulnerable to when faced with uncertainty and complexity. Beyond our individual role as a decision maker, when we are skiing in avalanche terrain, we need to maintain an awareness and familiarity of our co-decision-makers! Your group's experience, values, objectives, and beliefs will all play a big part in how the decision ecosystem functions in your group.

We will return to the topic of “decision makers” in our section on Heuristics, but before we do, we are going to dive a little deeper into one of the most important attributes of our decisions in the backcountry – uncertainty!

In the next segment, we're going to visit the concept of uncertainty, and unpack what it means, and how we need to incorporate uncertainty into our decisions.