In one of the most important elections ever, Democrats seem primed to make major gains in the House but the Senate map may prove too challenging to overcome. This is because of President Trump’s low approval rating (his rating is at 40 percent, according to FiveThirtyEight), the fact that the President’s party historically loses seats during midterm elections, and because Democrats are winning the generic ballot test (the poll of who the country wants to be in the majority in congress) by nine points (FiveThirtyEight). All of these seem to be signs pointing to a Democratic “wave” election, or an election in which the minority party wins a large number of races. The last such election was in 2010 when Republicans won 63 house races in repudiation of Obama’s first two years in the white house.
Will it be a Democratic wave? Will the Republicans hold on?
House
As of right now, the Republicans have the majority in the House of Representatives, with 240 seats to the Democrats’ 195. Democrats need to pick up a net of 23 seats in order to win back the House, something that most experts see as a very real possibility. FiveThirtyEight gives Democrats an 80 percent chance at winning enough seats to take the house. Here are some races to watch to get a sense of how election night will go.
Republicans Hold: The Republicans will most likely hold on to their majority in the House if they win races like Iowa’s First Congressional District (IA-01), which has a Cook Partisan Voting Index (PVI) of D+1, this means that it is one percentage point more Democratic than the country as a whole. President Obama won this district twice with 58 percent of the vote in 2008 and 56 percent in 2012, but the district swung towards Republicans in 2016 when President Trump won it with 49 percent of the vote. However, the Cook Political Report, Inside Elections and Larry J. Sabato’s Crystal Ball (these three political rating sites will be used throughout the article referenced as “the three rating sites”) all rate this race as leaning towards the Democrats. This district, in the heart of the midwest, has been affected by Trump’s controversial tariffs, which has given the incumbent Rod Blum (R) some problems defending his seat. The average of the two polls taken of this race in September has the Democratic candidate, Abby Finkenauer, leading by 10.5 points. Because of this, Republicans have already basically given up on this race: the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) has cut spending to the district (according to bleedingheartland.com). If the Republicans somehow defy the polls and come back to win this district, that would mean that they would be in great shape across the country to hold their majority in the house, and they may even gain some seats.
Democrats Take the House: The Democrats will most likely win back the House if they win races like California’s 48th Congressional District (CA-48), which has a PVI of R+4. This district is currently represented by Dana Rohrabacher (R), who has occupied this seat since 2013. This district voted for Obama, Romney and Clinton, so it is a true swing district. Rohrabacher has been one of the most pro-Russia politicians in recent years, even becoming the butt of a joke, along with President Trump, made by Republican majority leader Kevin McCarthy, who said, “There’s [sic] two people I think Putin pays: Rohrabacher and Trump.” The polls have been very close so far; the only poll taken in September showed a tie between Rohrabacher and his opponent, Harley Rouda (D). The three rating sites all classify this race as a toss up, so it will be interesting to see whether Rohrabacher can hold on to his seat. If Democrats win this toss up and other toss ups like this one, they will most likely be on their way to the majority.
Democratic Tsunami: If the Democrats win races like Georgia’s 6th congressional district, which has a PVI of R+8, they will be favored to pick up a huge number of seats. This district’s incumbent, Karen Handel (R), already survived a wave election, beating the Democratic sensation of 2017, Jon Ossoff, in a special election. Sabato’s Crystal Ball and Inside Elections rate this race as likely Republican, while Cook rates it as lean Republican. However, the only poll taken in this race shows Handel ahead by a mere two points, and this was a poll from a Democratic polling company (which skews the data to the left). The Democratic candidate, Lucy McBath, should be given credit for keeping this race close, as she is one of the candidates Democrats are most proud of. If Democrats can win this and similar districts, they could be looking at gains in the house of more than 40 seats.
Senate
Even though Democrats only have to win two seats to take back the Senate, they are not favored to do so; FiveThirtyEight puts their chances at 30 percent. The only reason why Democrats are not favored to win the Senate, as they are the House, is because of the map. Unlike the House, where every candidate is up for election, only a third of current Senators are up for reelection (plus two special elections), and of those 33 seats, 23 are held by Democrats, compared to only nine Republican seats. Of those nine Republican seats, five of them are considered safe Republican seats, therefore Democrats have real opportunities to win only four Republican races. Also, Democrats must defend 10 seats in states where Trump won the majority of votes in 2016. Here are some races to watch to see whether Democrats can actually win the Senate:
Republicans Hold: Democrats have to be almost perfect in defending their own seats, so any number of states where President Trump won in 2016, that have a Democratic senator up for election in 2018, could have been chosen for this category, but Florida seems like a good choice here. Florida has been the truest of swing states over the past elections, voting for Trump, Obama, both H. W. Bush and W. Bush, and Clinton in the past few Presidential races. In 2018, the Senate race puts popular outgoing Governor Rick Scott (R) vs incumbent Bill Nelson (D). Recent polls have shown Scott ahead of Nelson until the week of Sept. 24, where several pro-Nelson polls have come out. As of Sept. 24, the average poll has Nelson ahead by 1.1 points, but Scott has much more money on hand, as he has already spent $20 million of his own money on the race (CNBC). This race is a toss up according to the three rating sites, so if Republicans win this race, the map becomes almost impossible for Democrats to win back the senate.
Democrats Take the Senate: Democrats will take the Senate if they win the race in Tennessee. Normally, Tennessee has no business being a toss up in any election (Trump won Tennessee by 25 points in 2016). But the Democrats nominated perhaps the best possible candidate for this election: Phil Bredesen. Bredesen is a very popular former Governor of Tennessee who was elected by 29 points in his 2006 reelection bid, a larger number than Trump’s victory in 2016. However, his opponent, Marsha Blackburn (R), is also moderately popular, and more importantly, in such a red state, a Republican. This race is a toss up according to Cook, but leans Republican according to Sabato’s Crystal Ball and Inside Elections. The polls show a tie so far, but the state’s red history makes this race a little bit harder to win for Democrats than usual toss ups. If Bredesen wins, however, Democrats should feel confident about their chances to win a majority in the Senate.
Democratic Tsunami: Speaking of red states, if Democrats win the senate race in Texas, where uber-popular U.S. Representative Beto O’Rourke (D) is making Republican incumbent Senator Ted Cruz very nervous, it most likely means that the blue tsunami has come. The new darling of the Democratic party, O’Rourke made national news and appeared on Ellen and Stephen Colbert’s shows a few weeks ago after his response to a town hall question about NFL players who knelt during the National Anthem went viral. However, O’Rourke does not have the benefit of being a very well known former Governor, as Bredesen does. O’Rourke has only led one poll so far, and the average poll has Cruz ahead by 4.5 points. This is a lean Republican state according to the three rating sites, so if Democrats win this seat, the blue wave has definitely come.