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Arizona/Arizona State Preview By: Mark Lawson and Alec White

WHAT'S AT STAKE?

Arizona: This game is about seeding in the Pac-12 Tournament and trying to avoid being swept by the Sun Devils for the first time since 2009. With an 8-9 conference record, the Wildcats sit at ninth in the Pac-12 (as of 3/7/19) but could fall to tenth or rise as high as fifth depending on the outcome of the ASU game and the surrounding conference games.

The Wildcats also haven’t lost back-to-back games against the Sun Devils in the same season since 2009 – when Russ Pennell was the UA head coach – a year when ASU beat Arizona in both regular season games and the Pac-12 Tournament. Sean Miller is 14-5 against ASU during his time in Tucson, including 6-1 against ASU head coach Bobby Hurley.

Arizona is also looking to avoid losing its fifth game at home this season, which would be the second most under Miller since his first season in 2009-10.

ASU: The team has already secured the No. 2 seed in the Pac-12, but the more pressing matter for the Sun Devils is that they are trying to stay on the bubble for the NCAA Tournament. With 20-plus wins for the second-consecutive season, another trip to March Madness is in the cards for ASU, but a loss to the Wildcats could derail those plans.

KenPom.com ranks the Sun Devils as the No. 64 team in the country, putting them squarely on the edge of an at-large bid. A loss to No. 90 Arizona would certainly knock them a few spots, perhaps too many for the committee to let ASU back into the big dance.

It’s also of note that the Sun Devils haven’t beaten the ‘Cats in McKale since 2010 and Saturday’s game would be the best time for that streak to end. ASU pulled out a 95-88 win in overtime on Jan. 31 earlier this season behind Remy Martin’s 31 points and Zylan Cheatham’s 22 rebounds.

Brandon Randolph: 12.8 ppg

ARIZONA: NIT BOUND?

The Wildcats' season has fluctuated between good and bad about as much as Tucson weather does. A 9-4 record in the non-conference portion of their schedule saw Arizona hang tough against top-10 teams Auburn and Gonzaga and pick up a quality road win against UConn. It also saw their non-conference winning streak end at 52 as they were embarrassed on the glass against Baylor.

Conference play brought hope, as a 5-1 start put the Wildcats second in the conference, and a 14-5 record brought the potential for an at-large bid come March. The wheels then fell off, with Arizona losing seven games in a row to take any chances of making the NCAA Tournament solely on the 'Cats winning another Pac-12 Tournament title.

While Arizona was able to get guard Brandon Williams back after missing six games with knee soreness, injuries have hampered Chase Jeter as of late, with the big man playing just six minutes in the Wildcats' loss to Oregon due to a bone bruise suffered the previous game against Oregon State. His status for the ASU game is currently uncertain.

Sean Miller

Arizona State: Déjà Vu?

Bobby Hurley entered his fourth season as head coach in Tempe coming off of one of the most successful seasons in program history, reaching as high as No. 3 in the polls, before a late-season collapse left the coach with a sense of "what if?"

The Sun Devils were up 49-42 in their First Four game of the NCAA Tournament against Syracuse last season, but ended up losing 60-56. “The numbers '49-42' jump into my head a lot,” Hurley said. “I just would have loved to see what would have been next. That’s always the regret that you feel as a coach when your season ends.”

Hurley and his squad once again blazed the trail in the non-conference season this year, picking up perhaps the two best wins by Pac-12 teams all season by defeating then-No. 1 Kansas, as well as No. 15 Mississippi State. Despite these two wins, ASU once again experienced déjà vu thanks to some puzzling losses, including a defeat at home to a Princeton.

ASU has locked in the No. 2 seed for the Pac-12 Tournament with a 20-9 record overall, including 11-6 in conference. They have done so thanks to the Cheatham and Martin's, as well as the ability to pick up fouls, ranking sixth in the nation in free-throws attempted.

Bobby hurley

KEY PLAYER: Ira lee

When these teams met in Tempe during late January, the Wildcats got back the services of Chase Jeter, who had missed the previous two games due to a back injury. The big man played 31 minutes, but Miller said postgame Jeter was “about 40 or 50 percent,” finishing 1-5 from the floor with seven points and eight rebounds. With Jeter limited, Cheatham was able to dominate the glass for ASU, finishing with a career-high 22 rebounds.

With Jeter's status uncertain for the rematch on Saturday, the 'Cats will lean on Lee to carry some of Jeter’s scoring and defensive responsibility down low. The sophomore has hit a stride since the ASU game, shooting 74 percent from the floor. If Jeter is unable to play, Lee will be tasked with keeping Cheatham off the glass and ASU out of the paint, where they outscored the Wildcats by 16 in their last matchup.

IRa lee: 6.4 ppg, 4.2 rpg

KEY PLAYER: REMY MARTIN

It is no coincidence that in ASU's nine losses, the sophomore guard has shot 34 percent, compared to 43 percent in the Sun Devils' 20 wins. Martin is the catalyst for an offense that ranks second in the conference in both points per game and pace of play. He did whatever he wanted to when these two teams last met, hitting a big shot whenever the Sun Devils needed.

What makes ASU difficult to plan for is they don't get the bulk of their production from a single player. “To Arizona State’s credit, they don’t rely on one player,” Miller said after their meeting in January. “Although Remy Martin was terrific and made some big shots, he took advantage of his size, but so did some other players."

Martin will have to deal with Brandon Williams on both ends during this matchup as opposed to last game when the Arizona freshman missed due to injury. If Martin is able to control the flow of the game and score like he did the last meeting, it could be a season sweep for the Sun Devils.

remy martin: 13.0 ppg, 5.1 apg

prediction:

Alec White: It's senior day, Arizona is at home and has a chance to knock the Sun Devils off the bubble for the NCAA Tournament. All those mixed together will yield an Arizona win.

Getting Williams back at full strength will be key and even if Jeter is limited, the recent emergence of Lee and Ryan Luther has me a little less worried about the center's injury. I think Williams goes for at least 15 points and Lee and Luther combine for 25 to help the 'Cats win.

However, ASU can win the game if Cheatham gets close to his 22-rebound performance from the first meeting and the Sun Devils knock down at least 10 3s.

Score: Arizona wins 83-79

Mark Lawson: Arizona is in the midst of their worst season since the Sean Miller era began, but a down year was something everyone around Tucson expected for the most part after losing the entire starting five from last season.

While the 'Cats aren't even firmly in the NIT field at the moment, a victory over ASU combined with a win or two in the Pac-12 Tournament should be enough to get them into the field. A postseason berth combined with a split against the Sun Devils I think can be looked at as a successful season compared to expectations coming into the year, considering most of this team should be back next season, on top of the current No. 1 recruiting class in the nation.

The opportunity to play spoiler to the tournament chances of their arch-rival as well as send Luther and Justin Coleman out in style in their lone season at McKale should provide the Wildcats with added motivation. If they can keep Martin from going crazy like in the first meeting, I think the 'Cats can win and gain momentum going into Las Vegas next week.

Score: Arizona wins 74-71

JUSTIN COLEMAN: 9.0 ppg, 3.8 apg

Credit: Photos by Madeleine Viceconte

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Madeleine Viceconte

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