Evidence from climate simulation studies presents an alarming picture of developing country maize production in the decades to come. Higher temperatures, as well as more severe and frequent droughts, are predicted to seriously undermine national food security and rural livelihoods. For example, the results of a study using big data in refining the geospatial targeting of new drought-tolerant (DT) maize varieties in Malawi, Mozambique, Zambia, and Zimbabwe indicated that more than 1.0 million hectares (Mha) of maize in the study countries is exposed to a seasonal drought frequency exceeding 20 percent. To enhance the climate resilience of smallholder farming requires a mix of interventions, including new technologies as well as institutional innovations. Stress-tolerant maize varieties must form a central part of the mix, providing farmers with tangible insurance against crop losses.
Spatial modeling further shows that DT varieties give a yield advantage of up to 40% over the commercial check varieties across drought-prone environments. There is thus huge potential for marketing the new varieties in these countries and also wide scope for using big data analytical tools to enhance the targeting and uptake of this and other new technologies. CGIAR Research Program on Maize (MAIZE) researchers have put GIS tools to various other uses as well, such as mapping innovation and maize nursery sites (for integration into a unique digital maize atlas being developed by MAIZE) and updating climate change impact data for Mexico.
A key study estimating the impact of DT maize varieties in 13 target countries in sub-Saharan Africa, found that DT maize varieties outperformed popular commercial maize varieties grown in SSA in terms of main yields – DT maize varieties have more stable yields, which translates in a more stable income. The study comprised countries in eastern, southern and West Africa and focused on the period 2007-2016, a decade that shows the substantial investments and advances in DT maize development and uptake in target countries. Benefits were estimated to be US$395 million for producers and consumers in the aggregate target countries during the study period. The increased availability of data – including near-real-time remotely sensed drought measures and geo-referenced on-farm trial data – provides opportunities to select varieties which perform better under certain conditions leading to more robust and efficient technology adoption recommendations and targeting.
MAIZE researchers are gathering crucial evidence from adoption and ex post impact studies, which will help guide and muster support for continued development and dissemination of DT maize. Using new plot-level data from surveys of 3,700 farm households in Ethiopia, Malawi, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia, and Zimbabwe, the researchers measured DT maize adoption rates and examined key factors that influence adoption. They found considerable variation in adoption between countries – from 9 percent in Zimbabwe to 61 percent in Malawi. In 2016, 6,705,000 farmers have benefited from MAIZE-derived varieties and 2,700,000 hectares were sown with these varieties. Boosting the uptake of DT maize will require that seed companies and agro-dealers redouble their efforts to expand seed supplies in local markets, with emphasis on selling seed in affordable 1 or 2 kilogram micro-packs. Major promotional efforts are also needed to raise awareness and understanding of the benefits of the new varieties, as the new varieties have great potential to reduce food insecurity and boost incomes at the household and national levels.
MAIZE is fast-tracking the development and dissemination of stress-tolerant varieties. New maize lines and varieties are constantly being developed and are connected to farmers through public and private sector seed system investments. A strong network has been created for rapid deployment of hybrids through public-private partnerships. These partners are commercializing MAIZE-derived varieties. Building on the successes of the International Maize Improvement Consortium for Latin America (IMIC-LATAM) and the International Maize Improvement Consortium for Asia (IMIC-Asia), a Consortium for sub-Saharan Africa (IMIC-SSA) is now being initiated.
As population growth, climate change impacts, and other challenges put increasing strain on the global food system, the development of advanced tools to guide decisions about food security at all levels is becoming ever more urgent. In collaboration with the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), University of Minnesota in the USA, Wageningen University in The Netherlands, and others, MAIZE researchers are contributing importantly to this end through new approaches to foresight, ex-ante impact assessment, and targeting of improved agricultural technologies.
In response to growing interest in the use of micro-level bio-economic models, researchers moved ahead with the construction of a prototype model for ex-ante impact assessment and presented this work to the international modeling community. The tool has great potential for helping target new technologies with greater precision, taking into account conditions such as the climate, soil, market access, and others. The challenge is to make the tool sufficiently generic and modular (using open-source software) that it can be applied widely by a growing community of modellers.