Every year, disasters related to weather, water and climate extremes, such as tropical cyclones, severe storms, floods, heat waves and drought, lead to loss of life and socio-economic impacts, particularly in countries that lack resources. The extent of the losses in these regions may be attributed in part to a lack of understanding of the risk associated with these hazards, and a lack of preparedness to respond.
Many studies have indicated that Small Island Developing States (SIDS) and countries in Southeast Asia (SeA) are more likely to experience increased exposure to these extreme events due to climate change and developmental challenges.
As authoritative providers of weather and climate services, National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) play a central role in protecting lives and livelihoods. They contribute to national resilience by providing timely and accurate forecasts, advisories, and warnings of hydrometeorological hazards, and historical hydrometeorological data and information. WMO facilitates increased application of meteorological, hydrological and climatological knowledge to support decision-making processes in SIDS and SeA.
A critical challenge is to ensure that such products and services are developed based on the specific needs and requirements of decision makers and communities. This is achieved by working through the Climate Risk Early Warning Systems (CREWS) Initiative, a mechanism that funds Least Developed Countries (LDC) and SIDS.
To demonstrate its institutional support to the CREWS initiative, Environment and Climate Change Canada has funded a project entitled "Building Resilience to High-Impact Hydrometeorological Events through Strengthening Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems in Small Island Developing States and Southeast Asia". The project aims to protect lives and property through strengthening weather, climate, and water-related impact-based decision support services. This will be achieved through sponsoring WMO flagship activities in the project regions to benefit stakeholders from all socio-economic sectors and communities.
The project covers over 40 countries across three regions
Integrated Riverine Flood Forecasting in the Dominican Republic
In the Dominican Republic, an Integrated Riverine Flood Forecasting (IRFF) system is being developed. Integrated products from existing hydrological systems will be used to provide river flood impact forecasting in two pilot basins.
A detailed assessment of national capabilities in flood forecasting and warnings was conducted in 2019 as a first step. This was done using a pilot methodology introduced by the WMO Commission of Hydrology (CHy) and involved national institutions engaged in flood risk management in the country.
The findings from the assessment allowed for the establishment of an IRFF methodological approach, which was then tailored to the requests of INDRHI (National Hydrological Service) and ONAMET (National Meteorological Service) as well as the needs identified by the emergency response centre, Civil Protection and other national agencies.
The methodology for the IRFF system has four main components:
i) Inputs and initial conditions: Incorporation of products from operational systems such as Severe Weather Forecasting Program, Flash Flood Guidance System and Coastal Inundation Forecasting Initiative (CIFI).
ii) Flood forecasting: Generation of a hydrogram and simulation of the evolution of the water level in relation to initial conditions and meteorological forecasts.
iii) Flooded impact areas: Dynamic simulations based on the upstream and coastal boundary conditions obtained through CIFI.
(iv) Web platform : Visualization of IRFF products and other existing products through the GEO-STP platform which will be customized for INDRHI.
A co-designed training program on the modeling and operation of flood forecasting has also been developed for INDRHI and ONAMET. In July 2020, the first of this series of trainings was conducted virtually, introducing INDRHI and ONAMET staff to fundamental topics required for the operation and hydrological modeling of the IRFF. The training was an interactive session that covered theoretical topics and practical exercises, in which the participants carried out simulations and analyzes, and discussed the results. Further trainings will be carried out remotely throughout 2020.
Flash Flood Guidance System for Fiji (FijiFFGS) and Southeast Asia (SeAFFGS)
Flash floods are among the world's deadliest disasters. They are caused by intense rainfall during slow moving thunderstorms and tropical cyclones, often occurring quickly and with little or no warning.
In recent years, there has been an increase in the frequency and severity of flash floods in SIDS and SeA, resulting in loss of lives and damage to property.
In Southeast Asia, a Flash Flood Guidance System is under development. The system is expected to be operational by the end of 2020, and will provide data to Cambodia, Lao People's Democratic Republic, Thailand and Viet Nam.
This will be the first FFGS system to include nowcasting data, provided by the Viet Nam Meteorological and Hydrological Administration (VNMHA).
With the SeAFFGS in place, nearly 189 million people will have access to an effective early warning system to support the preparation and response to severe flash floods.
The Flash Flood Guidance System for Fiji (FijiFFGS) was developed in 2019 as a national project. FijiFFGS provides the Fiji Meteorological Service's (FMS) trained forecasters with the capacity to generate and issue flash flood forecasts and warnings up to 36 hours in advance.
Close collaboration and engagement between FMS, the National Disaster Management Office (NDMO) and other relevant stakeholders has resulted in a more advanced system.
Additional data such as demographics, vulnerability maps, evacuation facilities, infrastructure, educational and health facilities were added into the MapServer interface. With these inclusions, forecasters and disaster managers are able to better identify the possible impacts of flash floods.
The NDMO has also started to issue public advisories in three languages: English, Hindi and iTaukei.
We are now fine tuning our tools to be able to forecast these floods, and as a result of this we hope to be able to keep our people safe and save our infrastructure, save the people in this country." - Jone Usamate, Minister for National Disaster Management, Fiji
Multi-hazard Early Warning Systems - the way forward in Southeast Asia
An assessment of the current capacities, gaps and needs of national MHEWS was completed in Cambodia, Lao People's Democratic Republic, the Philippines Thailand and Viet Nam in 2019. Carried out by the Regional Integrated Multi-Hazard Early Warning System for Africa and Asia (RIMES ), the assessments looked at each NMHSs legal and institutional frameworks, current capacities and recent or ongoing projects.
This work was presented and discussed at a subregional workshop in Thailand in February 2020 that was jointly organized by WMO, the United Nations (UN) Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (UN ESCAP), and Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) . Participants reached a consensus on the development of a coordinated Southeast Asia-wide framework for strengthening the hydrometeorological disaster risk management and capacity development of NMHSs.
The workshop built a common understanding of Forecast-based Financing (FbF) / Early Warning Early Action (EWEA). These approaches enable access to humanitarian funding for early action based on in-depth forecast information and risk analysis.
Recommendations were also made for developing and pilot testing an operational methodology for multi-sectoral impact forecasting of tropical cyclones, for organizing training workshops on impact-based forecasting and warning services in Vietnam and for a CREWS Initiative follow-up project in Cambodia and the Lao People's Democratic Republic.
Credits:
Erstellt mit einem Bild von witthaya - "Aerial view of flood in Thailand."