On Thursday Jacinda Ardern explained what alert level three means for the New Zealand public and business. Whilst there have been countless blogs and posts about how to communicate during the lockdown, Stanley St and PureProfile have looked into preparing us for how we should be communicating after we move out of level 4. As businesses start moving back to some semblance of normality, as a nation we need to understand the ‘new’ normal that we will be moving into. Though reported behaviour and actual behaviour can have their discrepancies, the survey coupled with historic data starts to paint a picture of what is in store for brands post lockdown.

To get an understanding of what the future might hold for retailers, it’s useful to understand which retailers New Zealanders are currently missing. Overwhelmingly it is food that’s playing on our minds. With the average New Zealand family forced to look outside their standard cooking repertoire to stave off monotony, it is unsurprising that many of us are looking forward to some of our favourite quick service restaurants opening. We also see a spike in interest in DIY as people look to do up the home they have spent so long in. It is also in line with past recessions where people focus on their home in preference of spending their disposable income going out.

Brands in categories that tend to get hit by recessions need to focus on maintaining salience, presenting quality of product and being seen as an indulgence worth investing in during hard times. Assortment is still an important part of life.

When it comes to our shopping habits many New Zealanders said that they haven’t changed much during the level 4 lockdown. Those that are comfortable shopping online continue to do so and those that aren’t, continue to (supermarket) shop in store. This is replicated for delivery and click and collect. Despite this, 36% of New Zealanders expect to do more online shopping when the lockdown lifts. This is in line with previous recessions where existing trends, in this case ecommerce, have been skyrocketed by people’s needs and trained behaviours.

eCommerce will become an even fiercer battle ground for Kiwi businesses. We will see an increase in purchases and use of relevant tech, as well as reviewing the customer experience to ensure it is frictionless. Creativity will also be important to differentiate online shopping experiences as businesses move to tech and experience parity.

Unsurprisingly what New Zealanders are missing aligns closely with what they feel they will be buying – restaurant food and DIY. However, there are some noticeable differences. Though our audience are missing fitness and sports businesses they are less likely to spend in that category once the lockdown lifts. This would give credence that some of our learnt lockdown behaviour, such as home workouts, will continue onwards after the restrictions are lifted. This could have a negative impact on gyms and fitness studios as people look to tighten their belts during the recession. The same can be said for coffee shops, restaurants and fast food chains – after the initial surge of people buying KFC family buckets – as people maintain their newly learnt culinary skills.

Those that have started to engage with a media channel during lockdown plan to maintain that engagement post lockdown. In fact, the more mainstream social platforms such as Facebook and YouTube should fair very well from the lockdown with many planning on increasing use further when the lockdown lifts. Other niche social platforms such as TikTok and Houseparty may fall be the way side as people start to return to life as normal.

Brands may find that these platforms continue to be niche opportunities and not long-term investments. Facebook, Instagram and YouTube have opened themselves and us up to a wider audience including an older generation that have previously shied away from social media.

The fast food chains top the list with KFC and McDonalds leading the pack. Interestingly a number of the department stores and homeware brands have maintained top of mind throughout the lockdown including Warehouse, Kmart, Farmers and Briscoes. In line with the interest in DIY Mitre 10 and Bunnings also feature strongly.

Those brands that are on this list have the opportunity to capitalise and build on the desire audiences have expressed. Those brands not on this list should be considering investing more in advertising to grow salience and make themselves more recession proof. The lockdown has created a number of Delta moments where people have been forced to buy brands they would normally ignore due to availability. This meant it may have generated more apathy to their old brands as the new ones do the trick. Brands need to invest in reach and frequency to continue to be on the shopping list.

We have heard a lot about how brands should communicate during the lockdown but what about after the restrictions have lifted? Our research shows there are two key areas: 'Price & Availability' and 'Hygiene and Reassurance'. New Zealanders want to know what is back on the list of items to purchase as well as the price as the levels go down. With some businesses increasing the cost of products from where they sat before the lockdown, people are going to be more price sensitive to ensure they are not being ripped off. Businesses that communicate 'business as usual' will fair best. The 'germaphobia' that has been generated due to the lock down won’t abate simply because restrictions have lifted. Brands need to communicate that they are doing all they can to keep customers and staff safe.

The emotional messaging of CSR, solidarity and values come though lower in the rankings. However, emotional levers rarely perform as well in quantitative surveys as it encourages rational thinking. Through research into previous times of crisis we know that emotional messages are incredibly effective and encourage brand preference and sales.

So what should brands be doing?

Off the back of our research with PureProfile, social media analysis and our own desk research, we have developed a three-stage approach to help brands through the lockdown, prepare for possible futures and ensure they are in a strong position for the inevitable recession.

The new three P's:

PIVOT:

What to do in the lockdown? This includes shifting to care marketing, being present, and the role of brand amongst other key actions.

PREPARE:

What to do when we move down the levels of lockdown? This involves scenario planning, changing customer needs and service as an experience.

POSITION:

What to do in the inevitable recession? How to drive excess share of voice, positioning your brand through experiences and using CRM as your secret weapon.

Survey conducted with PureProfile (https://www.pureprofile.com/). N = 251 New Zealanders