Overview
At the Altona Flat Rock, jack and pitch pine are at their opposing range limits.
As the climate warms, it is predicted that species' range-margins will shift northward.
jack pine may become locally extinct at the Flat Rock if climatic conditions become unsuitable, possibly creating an open niche for pitch pine.
Climate may not be the only factor that limits the range-margins of species. Competition, disturbance, and dispersal may all influence the range-margins of species as well.
Background
• Altona Flat Rock sandstone pine barren is a unique ecosystem
• Understory cover at the Flat Rock: blueberry, black huckleberry, black chokeberry, sweet fern, and sheep laurel
• Separation of pitch and jack pine. pitch pine is confined to southeastern corner, while jack pine dominates the remainder of the area with slight overlap area between the two species.
Primary Objectives
- Are current climatic conditions still suitable for the growth and survival of jack pine seedlings?
- Are climatic conditions becoming more suitable for pitch pine?
- Are other factors (soil properties and competition) interacting with climate change to dictate range-shifts in the short-term?
Experimental design
Reciprocal transplant experiment.
- growth and survival in current conditions + competition
- 2 different clearing methods
- size + seedling count
- treatments
Other methods include climate change models to look at possible future climatic conditions at the Flat Rock, soil properties to look at any differences in soil quality between the pitch and jack pine dominated areas, and possible management plans if deemed necessary to help preserve the future of the Flat Rock.
Predictions
- Pitch pine will be limited by factors such as competition with jack pine as well as soil properties within the jack pine dominated area.
- If the climate is currently, or does become, unsuitable for jack pine seedling growth and survival, the current jack pine dominated area will become dominated by understory vegetation such as blueberries, sweet fern, and black huckleberry
Photos by Mark Lesser
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