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中共銀行界也感染了武漢新型冠狀病毒 【中英對照翻譯】

作者:by Tyler Durden Tue, 02/11/2020 - 09:15

翻譯:newbief(文蟠):PR:TCC幸福堂

簡評:TCC幸福堂

中共銀行界也受到武漢病毒的衝擊,其嚴重度不亞于2008年的全球金融危機。

中共央行在去年11月份的沙盤演練中發現,如果GDP從原來的6%下降為4.15%,30家主要銀行中的17家便將面臨倒閉。 而華爾街主流金融公司等也已經預估中共今年GDP嚴重下滑,並稱, 如果新型冠狀病毒在最近幾周內無法達到控制,其今年GDP將可能出現有史以來的負成長。

近期多家銀行已經出現了倒閉,出現了被國有化或被迫接受救助的現象。 即使沒有爆發病毒疫情,也已經暴露了中共銀行體系本身的問題-不良貸款,層層剝削,被盜國賊利用為洗錢的工具。 由於與美國近兩年的貿易戰,資本不足的中國銀行業,將在即將來臨的運營和流動性緊縮中首當其衝。

此次疫情的爆發,破壞了中國最具活力的小型企業,許多企業將陷入困境,無法償還貸款。 最近全國的一項調查突顯了小型企業的困境。 有85%的受訪者表示,以他們可用的現金將無法維持運營超過三個月。 沒有這些小型企業的輸血,中國的銀行業已經面臨了創紀錄的貸款違約。

目前一致的共識是: 疫情持續的時間越長,能圓滿結束的機會就越小。 這場經濟蕭條已經席捲了中國的銀行體系。 而冠狀病毒疫情的爆發更是雪上加霜。 最糟糕的時刻還沒有到來!

正文

China's Banks Face $6 Trillion Coronavirus Cataclysm If Epidemic Is Not Contained Soon

如果疫情不盡快得到控制,中國銀行業將會因冠狀病毒而面臨6萬億美元的災難

by Tyler Durden Tue, 02/11/2020 - 09:15

In a little noticed post back in November, we reported that as part of a stress test conducted by China's central bank in the first half of 2019, 30 medium- and large-sized banks were tested; In the base-case scenario, assuming GDP growth dropped to 5.3% - nine out of 30 major banks failed and saw their capital adequacy ratio drop to 13.47% from 14.43%. In the worst-case scenario, assuming GDP growthdropped to 4.15%, some 2% below the latest official GDP print, more than half of China's banks, or 17 out of the 30 major banks failed the test. Needless to say, the implications for a Chinese financial system - whose size is roughly $41 trillion - having over $20 trillion in "problematic" bank assets, would be dire.

在11月的一則引人注目的帖子中,我們報告稱,作為中國央行在2019年上半年進行的壓力測試的一部分,對30家大中型銀行進行了測試; 在基本情況下,假設GDP增長降至5.3%,則30家大型銀行中有9家倒閉,其資本充足率從14.43%降至13.47%。 在最壞的情況下,假設GDP增長降至4.15%--這比最新官方GDP資料低約2%--則超過一半的中國銀行或 30家主要銀行中的17家便無法通過測試。 毋庸置疑,對於擁有約20萬億美元「有問題的」銀行資產的中國金融體系(其規模約為41萬億美元)的影響將是十分可怕的。

Why do we bring this up now? Because according to many Wall Street estimates, as a result of the slowdown resulting from the Coronavirus pandemic, China's economic growth is set to slow sharply, with some banks such as JPMorgan now expecting as little as 1% GDP growth in Q1 assuming the epidemic is contained in the next few weeks; if it isn't, Chinese Q1 GDP growth may print negative for the first time on record.

我們為什麼現在提這個呢? 因為根據許多的華爾街預估,隨著冠狀病毒大流行導致經濟放緩,中國的經濟增長將急劇放緩,摩根大通(JPMorgan)等一些銀行現在預沽,如果在接下來的幾周內疫情能夠得到控制的話,第一季度的中共國內生產總值增長率僅為1%; 如果不是這樣,中國第一季度GDP增長可能有史以來首次出現負增長。

This is a big problem, because as noted above if the PBOC's 2019 stress test is credible, more than half of China's banks would fail the "stress test" should GDP drop to just 4.15%; and one can only imagine what happens to China's banks if GDP prints negative.

這是一個非常嚴峻的問題,因為如上所述,如果中國人民銀行的2019年壓力測試是可信的,那麼如果GDP降至4.15%,中國一半以上的銀行將無法通過「壓力測試」。 人們將無法想像,如果GDP表現為負數,中國的銀行將會發生什麼。

Or, alternatively, one can read the fine print, where we find that among the immediate first order consequences of a GDP crunch is that the bad loan ratio at the nation's 30 biggest banks would rise five-fold, flooding the country with trillions in non-performing loans, and potentially unleashing a tsunami of bank defaults.

或者,人們可以讀一讀那些精細的資料包表,我們發現GDP緊縮出現的第一個直接的後果就是中共國30家最大銀行的不良貸款率將上升五倍,無數萬億美元的非金融資產貸款氾濫成災,並可能引發銀行違約海嘯。

Of course, regular readers are will aware that China's banks are already suffering record loan defaults as the economy last year expanded at the slowest pace in three decades. As extensively covered The slump tore through the nation’s $41 trillion banking system, forcing the not only the first bank seizure in two decades as Baoshang Bank was nationalized , but also bailouts at Bank of Jinzhou, China's Heng Feng Bank, as well as two very troubling bank runs at China's Henan Yichuan Rural Commercial Bank at the start of the month, and then more recently at Yingkou Coastal Bank.

當然,忠實讀者們會意識到,隨著去年經濟以三十年來最慢的速度增長,中國的銀行業已經遭受了創紀錄的貸款違約。 這場經濟蕭條席捲了中國41萬億美元的銀行體系,不僅迫使包商銀行被國有化,這是二十年來銀行第一次被沒收,也使中國恒豐銀行錦州銀行被迫接受救助,還有兩家問題纏身的銀行,一個是在本月初出現問題的中國河南宜川農村商業銀行,最近又有營口沿海銀行。

All that may be a walk in the park compared to what is coming next.

與接下來將要發生的一切相比,這些只是開胃菜而已。

"The banking industry is taking a big hit," You Chun, a Shanghai-based analyst at National Institution for Finance & Development told Bloomberg. "The outbreak has already damaged China’s most vibrant small businesses and if it prolongs, many firms will go under and be unable to repay their loans."

美國金融發展局(National Institution for Finance&Development)駐上海的分析師尤淳(音譯)對彭博社說:「銀行業正遭受重創。 」 「疫情已經破壞了中國最具活力的小型企業。 如果持續下去,許多企業將陷入困境,無法償還貸款。 」

While the market is filled with optimistic speculation that the Chinese economy will be spared the worst, we already know that China's top aluminum buyers have already voided contracts with some of the world's biggest copper produc ers citing "force majeure" provisions. We doubt they will be the only ones, or that China's banks will somehow escape unscathed millions of businesses freeze their operations, refusing to pay the coupon or debt maturities. This means that China's banks - already undercapitalized from nearly two years of trade war with the US -will bear the brunt of the coming operational and liquidity squeeze, and Beijing will be forced to chose between bailing out hundreds of banks, or letting them fail.

儘管市場上充斥著中國經濟將倖免于難的樂觀猜測,但我們已經知道,中國最大的鋁買家已經援引「不可抗力」條款,取消了與世界上一些最大的銅生產商的合約。 我們懷疑這些是唯一有問題的,否則中國的銀行必將以某種方式逃避(拒絕支付息票或到期債務)使數百萬的企業毫髮無損並凍結其業務的。 這意味著,由於與美國近兩年的貿易戰而資本不足的中國銀行業,將在即將來臨的運營和流動性緊縮中首當其衝,而北京將被迫在救濟數百家銀行或讓其倒閉之間做出選擇。

To be sure, JPMorgan is not alone in its dire GDP forecast: UBS estimates growth will slow to 3.8% in the first quarter from a 6% pace at the end of year and to 5.4% for 2020 if the virus is contained within three months. If the virus is more protracted, annual growth could dip below 5%. Goldman Sachs similarly predicts a sharp slowdown in the quarter to 4%, while still predicting full-year growth at 5.5%.

可以肯定的是,摩根大通並不是唯一一個做出如此糟糕的GDP預測的:瑞銀(UBS)估計,第一季度的增長率將從年底的6%放緩至3.8%,如果該病毒在三個月內被遏制,則將在2020年增回5.4 %。 如果病毒肆虐時間更長,那麼年增長率可能會下降到5%以下。 高盛(Goldman Sachs)同樣預測該季度將大幅放緩至4%,而仍預計全年增長為5.5%。

It gets worse.

情況會變得更糟。

Doing its own calculations based on China’s stress tests, Bloomberg reports that according to S&P estimates, the worst-case scenario would cause bad debt to balloon by 5.6 trillion yuan ($800 billion), for a ratio of about 6.3% , adding to the already daunting 2.4 trillion yuan of non-performing loans China’s banks are sitting on (a number which, like the details of the viral epidemic, is largely massaged lower and the real number is far hig her according to even conservative skeptics).

彭博社根據中國的壓力測試進行自己的計算,據標準普爾估計,最壞的情況將導致不良債務激增5.6萬億元人民幣(合8000億美元),比率約為6.3%, 中國銀行業坐擁2.4萬億元人民幣的不良貸款。 (這個數位,就像病毒感染的數字一樣,在很大程度上被低估了,即使持保守且懷疑的估計,其實際數位卻非常的高)。

Predictably, S&P expects that banks with operations concentrated in Hubei province and its capital city of Wuhan, the epicenter and the region worst hit by the virus, will likely see the greatest increase in problem loans. The region had 4.6 trillion yuan of outstanding loans held by 160 local and foreign banks at the end of 2018, with more than half in Wuhan. The five big state banks had 2.6 trillion yuan of exposure in the region, followed by 78 local rural lenders, according to official data.

標準普爾預計,銀行其經營業務集中在湖北省及其首都武漢-疫情的中心和受病毒打擊最嚴重的地區-將有可能出現最大的問題貸款增長。 截至2018年底,該地區擁有160家本地和外國銀行持有的4.6萬億元人民幣未償還貸款,其中一半以上在武漢。 根據官方資料,五家大型國有銀行在該地區的業務為2.6萬億元,其次是 78家當地農村銀行。

The problem is that Beijing recently "advised" the largest banks, including Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, to serve their civic duty by bailing out millions of struggling small businesses by providing more cheap loans, rolling over debt and waiving fees, steps which will only add to the total bad debt total.

問題是,北京最近「建議」包括中國工商銀行在內的最大型銀行履行其公民的職責,通過提供更多廉價貸款,結轉債務和免收手續費等方式拯救數百萬陷入困境的小型企業,,這些措施只會增加壞賬的總額。

And so, just as China has scrambled to talk down the impact of the pandemic, so too officials have sought to ease concern over the hit to the banking sector. Zhou Liang, vice chairman of the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, said on Friday that a potential increase in bad loans is "manageable" without clarifying what level of bad loans would become unmanageabl e. Chinese lenders dissolved 3 trillion yuan of bad loans last year alone, he said, adding that bad loan ratio of China’s small businesses was at 3.22%.

因此,正如中國倉惶地淡化疫情的影響一樣,官員們也試圖減輕對銀行業遭受打擊的擔憂。 中共銀行業和保險監督管理委員會副主席周亮週五表示,不良貸款的潛在增加是「可控的」,並沒有弄清何種的不良貸款將變得難以控制。 他說,僅去年一年,中國的銀行就解決了3萬億元人民幣的不良貸款,並補充說,中國小型企業的不良貸款比率為3.22%。

Highlighting the of small bushiness, most of which are indebted to China's banks, a recent nationwide survey showed that about 30% said they expect to see revenue plunge more than 50% this year because of the virus and 85% said the y are unable to maintain operations for more than three months with cash currently available. Perhaps they were exaggerating in hopes of garnering enough sympathy from Beijing for a blanket bailout; or perhaps they were just telling the truth.

最近全國的一項調查突顯了小型企業的困境,其中大部分是積欠中國銀行的。 這調查顯示,大約有30%的受訪者表示,他們預計今年由於病毒將導致收入暴跌50%以上;而有85%的受訪者表示,以他們可用的現金將無法維持運營超過 三個月。 也許他們是在誇大其詞,希望得到北京的足夠同情以進行全面的救助。 也許他們只是在說實話。

In any event, nothing short of a coronavirus cataclysm faces both China's banks and small businesses if the coronavirus isn't contained in the coming weeks.

無論如何,如果在未來幾周內不能遏制住冠狀病毒,那麼中國的銀行和小型企業就將面對此病毒所帶來的災難。

Until then, banks have no choice but to keep throwing good money after bad, adding to their plight: "Social stability is of utmost importance to the authorities in China," S&P analysts led by Tan Ming said in a recent report. "Therefore, banks have been asked to help carry the burden of this health outbreak."

在此之前,銀行別無選擇,只能繼續投入良好資金,這加劇了他們的困境:以譚明(音譯)為首的標準普爾分析師在最近的一份報告中表示,「社會穩定對中國當局至關重要」, 「因此,已經要求銀行説明承擔這場因疫情暴發 所導致的重擔。 」

It gets worse: at a time when banks are desperate for any inbound cash, Beijing is telling them to collect even less interest on existing loans, effectively tying their fate with the success (or failure) of eradicating the coronavi rus. As Bloomberg reports, while most state banks agreed to cut the borrowing costs of virus-stricken firms by 0.5 percentage point, the State Council now requires them to ensure that small businesses are paying no more than 1 .6% with government subsidy. And even as cheaper financing may help the broader economy, rates below 5% mean banks are barely making enough money to cover their cost of funding after accounting for default risks.

情況變得更糟:在銀行迫切需要任何流入現金的時候,北京要求它們收取更少的現有貸款利息,有效地將它們的命運與根除冠狀病毒的成功(或失敗)綁在一起。 正如彭博社報導的那樣,儘管大多數國有銀行同意將受病毒侵害的公司的借貸成本削減0.5個百分點,但國務院現在要求它們確保小型企業在政府補貼下的支付不超過1.6%。 即使廉價的融資可能有助於整個經濟,但低於5%的利率意味著銀行在考慮了違約風險後幾乎無法賺到足夠的錢來支付其融資成本。

Which brings us to yet another unpleasant comp to the SARS epidemic, or even the 2008 global financial crisis: what differentiates the current episode from 2008 or 2003 "is the lack of bank capital now to support an aggressive bank -led credit stimulus," said Grace Wu, head of Greater China Banks at Fitch Ratings in Hong Kong. "Chinese banks do not have the same capacity to replenish capital now given their profitability has trended down in recent years."

這使我們在SARS疫情、甚至2008年全球金融危機之後又要再一次發生不愉快的應對經歷:香港惠譽國際評級大中華銀行負責人Grace Wu 說,當前事件與2008年或2003年的不同之處在于「 現在缺乏銀行資本來支援銀行主導的激進信貸舉措,」「鑒於近年來中國銀行的盈利能力呈下降趨勢,它們現在不具備補充資本的能力。 」

And not even the government in Beijing can magically conjure trillions in new funds to bail out its entire banking system without catastrophic consequences across an economy which is already suffering from the highest inflation in 9 years.

即使是北京政府,也無法神奇地召集數萬億美元的新資金來紓解整個銀行系統,而不為這個已經遭受9年來最高通脹的經濟體造成災難性的後果。

None of this has escaped investors, who are turning more downbeat on Chinese banks by the day, and whose shares have underperformed the benchmark in most of the past five years. The 「big four」 state-owned lenders, which together control more than $14 trillion of assets, currently trade at an average 0.6 times their forecast book value, near a record low. This also means that in the eyes of the market, as much as $6 trillion in bank assets are currently worthless!

這些投資者是不可倖免的,他們如今對中資銀行的態度越來越悲觀,其股票在過去五年的大部分時間裡都落後于基準指數。 「四大」國有貸款人,共同控制著超過14萬億美元的資產,目前的平均交易價格是其預期帳面價值的0.6倍,接近歷史最低水準。 這也意味著在市場眼中,目前多達6萬億美元的銀行資產一文不值!

Bank stocks have responded appropriately, with Bloomberg writing that China's credit giant, ICBC with over $4 trillion in assets, is down 11% YTD while China Construction Bank Corp., the nation’s second largest, has lost 7.6% so fa r in 2020.

銀行股對此作出了對應的反應,彭博社報導稱,擁有逾4萬億美元資產的中國信貸巨頭工商銀行迄今已下跌11%,而中國第二大銀行中國建設銀行(China Construction Bank Corp. )截至2020年迄今已損失了7.6%。

The worst is yet to come however, as the unexpected coronavirus epidemic is now their greatest test, and the longer it lasts, the lower the chances of a happy ending: "The resilience of China’s banking system may be severely tested ," the S&P analysts said.

然而,最糟糕的時刻還沒有到來,因為出人預料的冠狀病毒流行現在已成為對中共最大的考驗,疫情持續的時間越長,能圓滿結束的機會就越小:標準普爾分析師說過「中國銀行體系的彈性可能會接受嚴峻考驗」。

編輯:【喜馬拉雅戰鷹團】