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香港房价会暴跌吗? 【中英对照翻译】

新闻来源:Reuters《路透社》;作者:Clare Jim;发布时间:August 7, 2020 / 2020年8月7日

翻译/简评:毛毛猫猫;校对:Julia Win;审核:海阔天空 ;Page:拱卒

简评:

香港政府违背民意,强推港版“国安法”,严重破坏中英联合声明和香港的司法体系,这将使香港失去亚洲金融中心地位的基石,会给香港经济带来灭顶之灾。

2020年7月以来,香港止赎房屋的数量大增54%,达到675个,表明大量的港人逃离,对香港的政治和经济失去信心。香港当局近日更是变本加厉,强行推迟立法会选举。近日,更是动用百名军警查封“壹传媒“,逮捕了香港民主人士黎智英先生和他的两个儿子。这一暴行已经招致全球正义之士的强烈谴责,同时也必将迫使西方国家对香港采取更为严厉的经济制裁。

原文翻译:

Steep discounts for Hong Kong foreclosed homes may portend property price slump

香港止赎房屋以大幅折扣出售可能预示着房地产价格的暴跌

HONG KONG (Reuters) - Some Hong Kong foreclosed homes have been recently sold at steep discounts, adding to signs that the world’s most expensive housing market could be heading for price declines both this year and next.

香港(路透社)—— 一些香港的止赎房屋最近在以很大的折扣出售,这一迹象表明这个世界上最昂贵的住房市场可能在今年和明年的价格都将是下跌的趋势。

FILE PHOTO: Residential flats are seen in Tung Chung on Hong Kong's Lantau Island, China September 6, 2019. REUTERS/Amr Abdallah Dalsh/File Photo 文件图片:中共国香港大屿山的东涌看到的住宅单位 2019年9月6日。路透社/ Amb Abdallah Dalsh /文件照片

With the economy hit by anti-government protests and the coronavirus pandemic, foreclosures in the Asian financial hub jumped 54% in the first seven months of the year to 675, according to property auctioneer Century 21 Surveyors.

来自房地产拍卖公司21世纪测量行(Century 21 Surveyors)的数据显示,在经济受到反政府抗议活动和冠状病毒大流行双重打击的情况下,做为亚洲金融中心的香港,止赎房屋的数量在今年前七个月猛增了54%,达到675例。

Both speculative investors and ordinary people are walking away from their mortgages, financing companies and auctioneers told Reuters. Some warn foreclosures could surge next year to their highest levels since the global financial crisis.

融资公司和拍卖行告诉路透社,投机性投资者和普通百姓都在远离房屋贷款。一些人警告称,止赎房屋的数量可能会在明年飙升至全球金融危机以来的最高水平。

Unlike Hong Kong’s commercial property market which has seen a 30% drop in building values in the past year, home prices have so far been relatively resilient due to strong demand, even edging up 1.8% in the first half of this year.

与香港的商业地产市场在过去一年中价格下跌了30%有所不同,由于需求强劲,到目前为止,香港的私人住宅地产的价格一直表现的相对坚挺,甚至在今年上半年微涨了1.8%。

But two foreclosed properties belonging to a mainland Chinese investor recently sold at discounts of 25% and 12% to their respective purchase prices of around HK$30 million ($3.9 million) and HK$20 million, according to a person with direct knowledge of the matter. The person declined to be identified discussing client matters.

但据一位直接了解此事的人士透露,属于中国大陆投资者的两处止赎物业最近分别以25%和12%的折扣出售,其购买价分别为约3,000万港元(390万美元)和2,000万港元。由于事涉客户隐私,该人士在讨论客户事务时拒绝透露其身份。

Henry Choi, a director at Century 21 Surveyors, also said his company has had three recent cases where banks put auctions on hold after deciding to go back to court to ask for a lower base price.

21世纪测量行(Century 21 Surveyors)的董事亨利·蔡(Henry Choi)也表示,他的公司最近有三起案列都是在银行决定退回法院要求降低基准价格后,暂停拍卖。

“The original valuations were too optimistic and they would be hard to sell now in this market,” he said.

他说:“最初的估值过于乐观,现在很难在这个市场上出售。”

With demand far outstripping supply, prices for Hong Kong private homes have surged more than six times since 2003. There has only been one year of annual decline in that period - a drop of 3.6% in 2016.

由于需求远远超过供应,自2003年以来,香港私人住宅的价格已上涨了六倍多。在此期间,仅有一年出现了同比下降,那就是在2016年,下降了3.6%。

Some analysts, however, expect current economic stresses will soon hit the market harder and predict a fall of roughly 5% this year to be followed by a bigger drop next year.

然而,一些分析师预计,当前的经济压力很快将对市场产生严重冲击,并预测今年的跌幅约5%,明年的跌幅还会更大。

Industry sources also note foreclosures last month were artificially low as courts have been processing cases very slowly for several weeks due to social distancing measures imposed after new outbreaks of the virus.

业内消息人士还指出,由于新冠病毒爆发采取的社交隔离措施,数周来法院处理案件的速度非常缓慢,因此上个月的止赎率被人为降低。

Choi said he expects foreclosures to spike in the April-June quarter, noting a jump is almost certain due to the end in February of pandemic relief measures introduced by Hong Kong banks that allow home owners to pay only the interest and not the principal of their loans.

蔡说,他预计止赎个案将在4月至6月当季激增,并指出激增几乎是可以肯定的,主要是因为香港很多银行在2月底推出了针对病毒大流行的救助措施,该措施允许业主仅支付贷款的利息,而无需支付贷款的本金。

He predicts there could be as many as 2,000 foreclosures for all of 2021. That, however, would be lower than the more than 3,600 seen in 2009 in the wake of the global financial crisis, with the current market gaining some relief from monetary easing and low interest rates.

他预测,到2021年全年,可能会有多达2,000宗止赎案,但这将低于2009年全球金融危机后的3600例的纪录。目前的地产市场从宽松的货币政策和低利率中得到了一些缓解。

Anticipating lower prices ahead, lenders have also become super keen to offload properties as fast as possible.

但预期未来的地产价格将走低,借贷机构也变得超级热衷于尽快脱手房产。

“Normally we’d sell through property agents because transaction prices from auctions are too low, but now we want to get rid of the mess quickly so if agents can’t sell a property in two months, we put it up for auction,” said the chairman of a finance company, also declining to be identified.

“通常我们会通过房地产经纪人出售,因为拍卖的交易价格太低,但是现在我们希望尽快摆脱困境,因此,如果经纪人不能在两个月内出售房产,我们会将其拍卖。” 一家拒绝透露身份的金融公司的董事长表示。

编辑:【喜马拉雅战鹰团】Edited by:【Himalaya Hawk Squad】