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中共惩罚澳大利亚,但无法停止购买铁矿石 【中英对照翻译】

作者:Huileng Tan Jun 11 2020 / 谭惠玲 2020年6月11日 /

消息来源:CNBC / 《美国有线电视新闻网》

翻译:萝卜丝小姐

PR: InAHurry

简评:

中共十分依赖从澳大利亚进口铁矿石和液态天然气,短时间内根本无法找到可替代的来源。限制牛肉和大麦进口对澳大利亚经济的影响可谓是无足轻重。在这种情况下,其实是中共更需要澳大利亚,中共不耍流氓又难受,嘴上强硬地要以牛肉和大麦等农产品来制裁澳大利亚,最后只会更加激怒澳大利亚国民和政府,真可谓是搬起石头砸自己脚!

China may punish Australia with trade curbs — but it can’t stop buying iron ore from Down Under

中共可能会通过贸易限制来惩罚澳大利亚,但它无法停止从澳大利亚购买铁矿石

KEY POINTS

  • Bilateral ties between China and Australia have hit recent lows, and came after Canberra called for an international investigation into the origins of the coronavirus.
  • Beijing suspended some beef imports, slapped hefty tariffs on barley and is reportedly considering more actions on products from wine to fruits. However, China has not targeted its biggest commodity import out of Australia — iron ore.
  • China is the world’s largest iron ore consumer. It depends heavily on Australian iron ore, which is “critical” to the Chinese economy, said Gavin Thompson, Asia Pacific vice chairman for energy at Wood Mackenzie.

新闻要点:

  • 继澳大利亚方面要求对冠状病毒的起源进行国际间调查,中澳双边关系近期达到低点。
  • 中共国方面中断了一些牛肉进口贸易,极大地增加了大麦的关税,据报道称其还在打算针对从红酒到水果等一系列产品采取更多的行动。但是,中共国还没有把铁矿石-其从澳大利亚进口最多的商品列为制裁目标。
  • 中共国是世界上最大的铁矿石消费国。伍德-麦肯兹(Wood Mackenzie)能源部亚太地区副主席Gavin Thompson说中共国非常依赖澳大利亚铁矿石,它对中共国经济来说至关重要。

Relations between China and Australia have been on a downward spiral in recent months, triggered by Canberra’s call for an international probe into the origins of the coronavirus, which was first reported in the Chinese city of Wuhan.

In what is seen as retaliation against Australia’s stance, Beijing suspended some beef imports, slapped hefty tariffs on barley and is reportedly considering more actions on products from wine to fruits.

最近几个月以来中澳关系急剧恶化,起因是澳大利亚方面要求对冠状病毒起因进行国际调查,而冠状病毒最早是在中国武汉报道的。

在被视为对澳大利亚立场的报复中,中共国暂停了一些牛肉进口贸易,极大地增加了大麦的关税,据报道称其还打算针对从红酒到水果等一系列产品采取更多的行动。

On Thursday, Australia’s prime minister said he would not be intimidated by “coercion” after the moves from Beijing. “We are an open-trading nation, mate, but I’m never going to trade our values in response to coercion from wherever it comes,” Scott Morrison told local media on Thursday, according to a Reuters report.

周四,澳大利亚总理称北京方面的制裁行动带来的压力不会威胁到他。路透社报道,Scott Morrison本周四告诉当地媒体:“我们是开放的贸易国,伙伴,但是我们永远不会为了压力去交易我们的价值观,无论压力来自何方。

The dispute is cause for concern as Australia’s export trade with China is huge, said Gavin Thompson, Asia Pacific vice chairman for energy at Wood Mackenzie, a commodities consultancy. “By value, China currently buys around a third of everything Australia exports and the ongoing diplomatic bust-up risks spilling over into trade,” he said in a note on Tuesday.

While none of Beijing’s moves against Australian agricultural commodities is welcomed, “the appetite of China’s consumers for Aussie tenderloin and Merlot is insignificant in terms of overall trade,” said Thompson.

此争端引人担忧的地方在于澳大利亚对中国的出口贸易体量巨大,Gavin Thompson,伍德-麦肯兹(Wood Mackenzie),矿产品咨询集团的能源部亚太地区副主席在周二的一份说明中说道,“就价值而言,中国目前大约购买澳大利亚出口总量的三分之一,不断的外交争端有可能蔓延到贸易中”。

Thompson说道,尽管(澳大利亚)并不欢迎北京方面针对澳大利亚农业产品的任何行动,“但是对于整体的贸易来说,中国客户对澳大利亚牛肉和红酒的需求是微不足道的”。

China has yet to target its biggest commodity import from Australia — iron ore. That’s because the Asian giant has very few options to source for that at the moment.

Two other major commodities — coal and liquefied natural gas (LNG) — have also been mostly spared so far.

中共国还没有把铁矿石-其从澳大利亚进口最多的商品列为制裁目标。这是因为这个亚洲巨人目前可以选择的货源非常少。

其他两大主要大宗商品 - 煤炭和液化天然气目前也大多被豁免于(报复性关税)。

In fact, Australia’s energy and natural resource exports to China have been “booming” and are “in over-drive,” noted Thompson. Mining is one of the top contributors to Australia’s economy.

According to Wood Mackenzie, Australia’s iron ore and LNG exports to China are up 8% and 9% year-to-date respectively, compared to a year ago. Chinese imports of Australia coal are also “way ahead of where they were before the pandemic.”

事实上,澳大利亚对中国的能源和自然资源出口一直是激增和超速运转的,Thompson如此评论到。采矿业是澳大利亚经济的最大贡献者之一。

根据伍德-麦肯兹(Wood Mackenzie )的报告,同去年相比,年初至今澳大利亚出口中国的铁矿石和液化天然气分别增长了8%和9%。中国对澳大利亚煤炭的进口也同样“比疫病大流行前有显著增长”。

Chinese supporters rally outside Parliament House during the Beijing 2008 Olympic torch relay through Canberra, Australia on April 24, 2008. Torsten Blackwood | AFP | Getty Images 2008年4月24日,北京2008年奥运圣火传递在澳大利亚堪培拉的国会大厦前的中国支持者集会。

Chinese state media slammed Canberra for its “ringleader” role in calling for an investigation, and warned that China could impose curbs that would hit the Australian economy hard.

While it is possible that relations between China and Australia worsen to the point where iron ore, coal and LNG shipments to the East Asian economic giant would be hit, such tactics would also hit China’s growth, said Thompson.

中共国官方媒体抨击澳大利亚是要求调查的罪魁祸首,并警告称中共国会强加(贸易)限制,而这会使澳大利亚经济遭受沉重打击。

Thompson说,尽管中澳关系可能进一步恶化到铁矿石,煤炭和液化天然气的出口也受到打击,但是此策略也会严重影响到中国的(经济)增长。

“Such a move would also come at a cost to China. Any disruption to its imports of Australian energy and iron ore would have an immediate impact on both price and China’s own supply needs,” he added.

With China’s economy battered by the coronavirus outbreak, Beijing is rolling out massive stimulus to prop up growth. This will include infrastructure spending — which would in turn require a lot of steel, iron ore and steel-making coal for building and construction.

他继续说道:“那样的行动也会给中国造成损失。任何对澳大利亚能源和铁矿石进口的干扰都会立即对价格和中共国自己的的供应需求产生影响。“

由于冠状病毒大爆发严重打击了中国的经济,北京推出了大规模刺激措施来支撑(经济)增长。其中包括了基建开支 – 这反过来需要很多钢铁,铁矿石,还有炼钢的煤炭

Placing restrictions on Australian iron ore imports would hurt domestic steel producers just as the Chinese government is directing stimulus money into construction and infrastructure. - Gavin Thompson (ASIA PACIFIC VICE CHAIRMAN FOR ENERGY AT WOOD MACKENZIE)

正当中共国政府将刺激资金导入建造业和基建之时,限制澳大利亚铁矿石进口将会损害中共国国内的钢铁制造业。 - Gavin Thompson 伍德-麦肯兹(Wood Mackenzie)能源部亚太地区副主席

China’s steel mills were already ramping up production in anticipation of stimulus-led demand, Reuters reported.

Just last month, an executive from the China Iron and Steel Association said that while China could swap Australian for African iron ore, there would be a lag of four to five years before deposits in Africa could be tapped.

But “once such a transition is completed, Australia’s place as an iron ore supplier to China will be lost forever,” Li Xinchuang, a vice chairman of the industry association, told the Chinese Communist Party-linked Global Times.

路透社报道,中共国的钢厂因预计刺激(措施)会带动需求,已经在增加产量。

仅上个月,一位中国钢铁协会的主管说尽管中国可以用非洲铁矿石来替代澳大利亚的,但是离非洲的矿床可被采用将会有四到五年的滞后。

但是“一旦完成过渡,澳大利亚将会永久失去中国的铁矿石供应商的地位。” 李新创,该行业协会的副主席这样告诉与中共有关联的环球时报

Iron ore is ‘critical’ to China’s economy

铁矿石对中共国经济至关重要

China is the world’s biggest iron ore consumer. It depends heavily on Australian iron ore, which is “critical” to the Chinese economy, said Thompson.

Thompson说中国是世界上最大的铁矿石消费国,它严重依赖澳大利亚铁矿石,而澳大利亚铁矿石对中共国的经济至关重要。

Australia — the world’s largest iron ore producer and exporter — accounted for about 60% of the world’s total seaborne shipments in 2019, according to the World Steel Association.

Brazil was the second largest exporter, and accounted for 23% of global seaborne iron ore last year.

据全球钢铁协会的数据,澳大利亚是全球最大的铁矿石制造国和出口国-2019年占据全球海运发货量的60%。

巴西是第二大出口国,去年占了全球铁矿石海运的23%。

The country’s production has been hit by the pandemic, wet weather and the fallout from a major mining disaster in recent months. Wood Mackenzie is forecasting a 4% fall in Brazilian iron ore exports in 2020, extending from a 13% on-year decline in 2019.

That leaves China, which imports over 60% of its iron ore from Australia, with few alternatives.

疫病大流行,潮湿的天气还有近期的一次大型矿难的影响严重打击了巴西的(铁矿石)产业。伍德-麦肯锡预计巴西铁矿石2020出口额会下降4%,延续2019年13%的下降

这让从澳大利亚进口其60%所需铁矿石的中共国只剩下更少的其他选择了。

China recently changed regulations for iron ore inspections, which were initially seen by some to be targeted at Australian imports. However, Thompson said that given the constraints on Brazilian supply, the move was unlikely to be aimed only at Australian imports.

中国最近改变了其铁矿石检查标准,这最初被一些人看作是针对澳大利亚进口的措施。但是,Thompson说,鉴于巴西供应的限制,此行动不太可能仅仅针对澳大利亚进口。

“Placing restrictions on Australian iron ore imports would hurt domestic steel producers just as the Chinese government is directing stimulus money into construction and infrastructure,” said Thompson, who added there is “no disruption yet to Australia-China iron ore trade.”

In fact, Australian miners are operating at capacity and struggling to increase output due to infrastructure and capacity constraints, he said.

Thompson说“正当中共国政府在引导刺激资金进入建造业和基建之时,限制澳大利亚铁矿石进口将会损害其国内钢铁制造业 。”,他补充说”目前还没有干扰到中澳间铁矿石贸易。”

他说:事实上,澳大利亚矿工已满负荷工作,由于基础设施和生产能力的限制,很难再增加产量。

Spot iron ore prices have jumped from around $80 a metric ton at the beginning of March to breach $100 a ton now.

铁矿石价格从三月初的大约$80一公吨涨到了现在的 $100 一吨。

Possible headwinds for coal and LNG

煤炭和液态天然气可能面临的阻力

The picture for coal is more mixed as China is far more self sufficient in the fossil fuel compared to iron ore, raising the risks that China could target coal imports from Australia.

煤炭的情况则更为复杂,因为对比铁矿石来说,中共国在化石燃料方面更为自给自足。这就增加了中共国可能会将澳大利亚煤炭出口列为制裁目标的风险。

There are two main types: metallurgical coal used in steel making, and thermal coal that’s widely used to generate power and electricity.

煤炭有两大类:用于制钢的冶金煤炭和广泛用于产能和电的热能煤。

If there are restrictions on metallurgical coal, it has yet to show up in the trade numbers.

In the first four months of the year, Chinese imports for metallurgical coal hit 28 million tons — that’s more than half of the 52 million tons China imported for the whole of 2019, according to Wood Mackenzie. Over 80% of China’s metallurgical coal imports are sourced from Australia.

The situation could be different in the thermal coal market, where rumors of Chinese restrictions on that category of Australian produce have surfaced.

如果对冶金煤炭有限制的话,那目前为止还没有在贸易数据中显现出来。

根据伍德-麦肯兹的数据,在今年最初的四个月里,中国冶金煤炭的进口量达到了两千八百万吨-这超过了2019年全年五千两百万吨的一半多。中国80%的冶金煤炭进口来自于澳大利亚。热能煤的情况可能会有所差别,但已经有中国对这一种类的澳大利亚产品实施限制的谣言开始流传开来了。

Diversifying away from Australia will be particularly appealing given that the country accounted for around 40.0% of China’s total mining imports in 2019. - Fitch Solutions

考虑到澳大利亚占据了2019年中共国矿业总进口量的40%, 同澳大利亚拉开距离,进行多元化发展(对中共国来说)尤其的有吸引力。- 惠誉国际

As for LNG, imports through May were up almost 9% than a year ago, in part as demand recovered after the worst of the pandemic appeared to be behind China. “Moves against Australian LNG look an unlikely prospect given the scale and contracts in place,” said Thompson.

LNG contracts are traditionally locked in for 10 to 20 years.

同去年对比,五月的液态天然气的进口增长了接近9%,部分原因是中共国度过了疫病大流行最严重的时期,需求回升。Thompson 说:“考虑到(需求)体量和已经签订的合同,预计不太可能有针对液态天然气的限制行动。,”。

一般来说液态天然气合同期限都是十到二十年的。

China may seek new sources

中共国可能寻求新的供应源

Even though China may not have much wiggle room where it can source important commodities right now, the country will likely ramp up investments to ensure it secures future supplies.

尽管中共国目前没有太多购买重要矿产品的选择余地,但是它很有可能加大投资以保证将来的供应。

China will do that by diversifying its sources and accelerating its mining investment under the mega Belt and Road infrastructure project in the next five years, Fitch Solutions said in a June report. It comes against the backdrop of more and more governments, such as the U.S. and Australia, as well as the European Union, step on the screening of Chinese investments in recent years.

慧誉国际(Fitch Solutions)在六月的报告中写道 中共国会通过多元化来源,并在未来五年内加快大型一带一路的基础设施项目下的矿业投资来实现这一目标。这是在近年来很多政府,例如美国,澳大利亚和欧盟等加紧对中共国投资的审查的背景下出现的情况。

“In particular, we expect the investment appeal of Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) to Chinese firms will increase as diplomatic relations between China and developed markets deteriorate,” Fitch analysts said.

“Diversifying away from Australia will be particularly appealing given that the country accounted for around 40.0% of China’s total mining imports in 2019,” they added.

慧誉的分析师说:“特别是,我们预计,随着中共国和发达国家的外交关系的恶化,撒哈拉以南非洲对中国公司的吸引力会增长。”

他们补充道“考虑到澳大利亚占据了2019年中国矿业总进口量的40%, 同澳大利亚拉开距离,进行多元化发展(对中共国来说)尤其的有吸引力。”

Possible sub-Saharan African markets China could intensify investments include Guinea for iron ore and South Africa for coal.

中共国可能加大投资的撒哈拉以南的非洲市场包括几内亚的铁矿石和南非的煤炭。

编辑:【喜马拉雅战鹰团】Edited by:【Himalaya Hawk Squad】