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无法解决的中美贸易战 【Gnews】

Unresolvable US-China trade war

无法解决的中美贸易战

By Baiye 04-12-2019

Patrick Armstrong, CIO of Plurimi Investment Managers said on Tuesday that in the long term, the Sino-U.S. trade war is “unresolvable”.

Plurimi投资管理公司的首席信息官阿姆斯特朗(Patrick Armstrong)周二说,从长期来看,中美之间的贸易逆差将会扩大。贸易战是“无法解决的”。

Markets have experienced volatility on the back of news relating to the U.S. and China’s “phase one” deal since President Donald Trump announced it was being negotiated in October. The U.S. president added fresh uncertainty to proceedings on Tuesday when he told reporters in London it might be better to wait until after the United States’ 2020 election to strike a deal with Beijing.

10月份,川普总统宣布正在进行美中“第一阶段”的谈判,新闻传出后,市场经历了波动。总统周二对伦敦记者说,最好等到2020年美国大选之后再与北京达成协议,这给会议进程增加了新的不确定性。

Despite months of anticipation from markets, however, Armstrong speculated the preliminary deal would be a “sell the news type event” with little economic impact.“I think any trade deal we get between the U.S. and China is going to be very shallow,” he explained. “It’s not the all-encompassing deal we were hoping for. I think what Trump did yesterday is a real warning”.

然而,尽管市场已经期待了几个月,阿姆斯特朗还是推测初步协议将是一个“博眼球事件”,对经济影响不大。他说:“我认为美中之间达成的任何贸易协议都将是非常肤浅的。“这不是我们希望的全面协议。我认为昨天川普发出的是一个真正的警告。”

Analysts have been weighing in on the potential economic impact of the U.S. and China’s “phase one” deal being signed for months. Many have speculated that while markets may respond positively to the prospect of a deal, its effect on the wider economy is likely to be limited.

几个月来,分析人士一直在权衡美国和中国签署的“第一阶段”协议可能带来的经济影响。许多人猜测,尽管市场可能对达成协议的前景做出积极反应,但协议对整体经济的影响可能有限。

Last week, Keyu Jin, associate professor of economics at London School of Economics, described the phase one agreement as a “face deal”,Meanwhile, Yale University professor and former Morgan Stanley Asia Chairman Stephen Roach said that the deal was “pretty hollow” but “politically expedient, especially for the U.S. president.”Others have shared Armstrong’s pessimism on the longer-term outlook for the trade war.

上周,伦敦政治经济学院的经济学副教授金刻羽将第一阶段的协议描述为“面子交易”,与此同时,耶鲁大学教授、前摩根士丹利亚洲主席Stephen Roach说,该协议“相当空洞”,但“在政治上是权宜之计,特别是对美国总统而言。”其他人也和阿姆斯特朗一样,对贸易战的长期前景感到悲观。

Source 新闻来源:

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/12/03/us-china-trade-war-is-unresolvable-strategist-says.html

【秘密翻译组】