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國際資本別做夢了,中共國經濟危若累卵! 【中英對照翻譯】

來源:ZeroHedge, Sun, 02/16/2020

作者:泰勒 杜登 Tyler Durdenl

翻譯:Xfile

Excerpted from Doug Noland’s Credit Bubble Bulletin blog,

部分節選自 度格 若蘭 信用泡沫簡報 博客

簡評:海闊天空

中共國新型冠狀病毒疫情仍在肆虐,除了讓中共不堪重負的醫療系統雪上加霜,更可能成為壓斷中國經濟的最後一根稻草。在疫情之前,中共國經濟已經危如累卵,物價飛漲、消費極度萎縮、房地產泡沫史無前例、企業債台高築。疫情徹底打擊了中共國經濟,尤其打擊了中共國賴以生存的房地產經濟。根據彭博社的報告,在2月第一周,房地產交易量驟降。招商證券股份有限公司統計的36個城市成交量的數據顯示,新屋銷售較2019年同期下降了90%。在有數據的8個城市,現房銷售下降了91%。中共國會面臨首次住房和抵押貸款泡沫的破裂!這是中國經濟和社會無法承受之重!為了強行拖動中共國經濟繼續運行,為了中共國政權的合法性,北京當局一再出台「刺激措施」,信貸大水灌滿。這些天量資金會湧入實業領域嗎?

不。這些以搶劫普通百姓財富為代價出台的信貸政策,只會進一步湧入股市或者房地產。這些措施對中共國目前的經濟狀態只能是火上澆油、飲鴆止渴。百姓已經沒錢去買房了,百姓甚至沒命去消費了!中共國病毒仍然在快速傳染的情況下,在權貴兩會推遲的情況下,仍然逼著百姓復工,逼著百姓拿命去換帶血的GDP,逼著百姓去掙美元、掙外匯。大面積復工意味著大面積傳染,大面積傳染意味著中共又添大量血債!這樣的政權難道不該推翻嗎?這樣的政權難道不該唾棄、不該被徹底清算嗎?

可嘆國際資本盲目、短視,無視中共國潛在的巨大經濟風險,無視中共國疫情全球擴散的現實,還在暢想疫情很快過去,還在暢想量化寬松政策帶來的市場機會。國際資本還在盲目樂觀之中,但很快,中共國的社會主義鐵拳也會砸到國際資本臉上,讓其疼痛,讓其清醒。

Record Highs And Raging Risks – The Mother Of All Head-Scratchers

「歷史新高」與「肆虐風險」——最頭痛的難題

Confirmed coronavirus cases almost doubled over the past week to 67,000. Part of the spike was the result of including a group diagnosed through CT imaging scans rather than with typical coronavirus testing. The ballooning number of patients with viral symptoms has overwhelmed the capacity for normal testing. Troubling news came Friday of 1,700 Chinese healthcare workers having been infected (with 25,000 deployed to Hubei Province). Also, quarantines were further tightened in Wuhan and Beijing. Returning Beijing residents are to remain isolated in their homes for 14 days. As the NYT put it, 「It was the latest sign that China‘s leaders were still struggling to set the right balance between restarting the economy and continuing to fight the coronavirus outbreak.」

由於採用了CT掃描結果作為新冠病毒檢測方法,新冠病毒確診病例達到6萬7千例。較上周確診病例數幾乎翻倍,大量的新增病例使本已不堪重負的醫療體系雪上加霜。根據週五的新聞報道,湖北省境內的2萬5千名中國醫護人員中大約有1千7百名受到了病毒感染。與此同時,武漢和北京的檢疫措施也變得更嚴格。返回北京的居民必須在自己家中單獨隔離14天。紐約時報報道所稱,「最新跡象表明中國的領導人仍然在復工與控制疫情之間搖擺不定。」

Staring at a rapidly unfolding economic and financial crisis, Beijing has made the decision to move forward with efforts to get their faltering economy up and running. This comes with significant risk. Global markets, by now fully enamored with aggressive monetary and fiscal stimulus, are predisposed to fixate on potential reward (keen to disregard risk). That future students of this era will be more than a little confounded has been a long-standing theme of my contemporaneous weekly chronicle. Booming market optimism in the face of what has been unfolding in China will ensure years and even decades of head-scratching.

面對迅速蔓延的經濟和金融危機,中國政府決定繼續努力,讓搖搖欲墜的經濟重新啓動和運行。這伴隨著巨大的風險。到目前為止,全球市場在強勁的貨幣和財政政策的刺激下,使得大家的注意力都集中在獲利上而忽視了風險。這是筆者在近幾周的文章中一再提及的,當下中國經濟顯現出的「真實」狀況與市場的「樂觀」情緒之間的迷思,也許在未來儅金融專業的學生在回顧這段歷史時也同樣會感到困惑不解。

China is definitely not alone in gambling with aggressive late-cycle stimulus, as it desperately tries to postpone the unavoidable dreadful downside after historic Bubble Inflations. Coming at this key juncture of end-of-cycle fragilities, it‘s a challenge to envisage more delicate timing for such an outbreak – in China and globally.

中國不是唯一的在用「刺激」政策與經濟下調週期對賭的國家,在歷史性的泡沫通脹之後,中國正在試圖推遲不可避免的經濟下調。在此關鍵時刻,中國乃至全球範圍對如何 在「力保經濟」與「疫情」之間平衡都是一個挑戰。

Clearly, when global markets hear 「stimulus」 they immediately salivate over the thought of bubbling liquidity and ever higher securities prices. Critical nuances of global Inflation Dynamics go unappreciated.

顯然,儅全球市場聽到「刺激經濟」的利好時,大家立刻垂涎所能得到的獲利而不是考慮到已經虛高的股票價格和「流動性」的泡沫,進而帶來的全球通脹的加劇也變得不被人關注。

February 9 – Bloomberg: 「China‘s consumer prices rose the fastest in more than eight years last month, with the outbreak of the coronavirus and subsequent shutdowns of transport links across the country making further gains in the coming months likely. Consumer prices rose 5.4%, with food prices jumping the most since 2008 in January. Even before the coronavirus, prices were likely to have risen sharply due to the normal spike in demand around the Lunar New Year and the effects of the African Swine Fever outbreak which has killed millions of pigs and damaged pork supplies. Pork prices gained the most on record.」

2月9日 彭博社:上月中國的物價在過去8年中上漲得最快,隨著新冠病毒的爆發和隨後而來的全國性「封城」,這一趨勢在未來幾個月估計還會繼續上漲。物價上漲5.4%,其中食品價格的漲幅是自2008年1月以來最大的。且不論新冠病毒爆發之前,由於農歷新年需求增加和非洲豬瘟造成的數百萬頭豬被銷毀,已經導致的豬肉價格創記錄的大幅增長。

China has an escalating consumer price inflation problem, one manifestation of intensifying Monetary Disorder. It‘s a fundamental Credit Bubble Analytical Postulate that inflationary fuel will gravitate to areas already demonstrating the strongest inflationary biases. As we’ve been witnessing globally, dump stimulus into a backdrop of powerful securities market inflationary psychology and the upshot will be more intense speculation, acute asset price inflation and increasingly destabilizing market Bubbles. China, facing its own particular Inflationary Dynamics, has now embarked on a course that never ends well: aggressive fiscal and monetary stimulus in an environment of rising consumer inflation and general monetary and economic instability.

中國的物價通脹問題日趨嚴重,這是貨幣政策失調加劇的一種表現。假設信貸泡沫分析的根本點是,通貨膨脹更容易在已經高通膨的地區加速通膨。正如我們在全球範圍內目睹的那樣,在強大促「通膨」心理背景下經濟刺激措施,嚴重的資產價格「虛高」以及日益不穩定的「市場泡沫」 ,使證券市場的投機行為愈演愈烈。這個中國所特有的「通貨膨脹」,目前看來已經讓中國經濟走上了一條不歸路:中國居民消費價格指數上升以及總體貨幣和經濟不穩定的環境下,實施積極的財政和貨幣刺激措施。

China‘s CPI Food Index posted a 20.6% y-o-y increase in January, the highest rate since March 2008. For many of its citizens, food purchases make up a significant percentage of monthly expenditures (some estimates as high as 30%). While the doubling of pork prices is inflating price aggregates, even vegetable prices were up a notable 17% y-o-y. And this was before the escalation of the coronavirus outbreak. Beijing has acknowledged the risk to social stability from the coronavirus.

中國1月份的CPI食品指數同比增長20.6%,為2008年3月以來的最高水平。對於大多數中國老百姓而言,食物支出佔每月支出的很大一部分(估計高達30%)。誠然豬肉價格的翻番使通膨加劇,但與此同時蔬菜價格也同比增長了17%。而且這是在冠狀病毒大規模擴散之前。北京當局已經知悉冠狀病毒擴散的危害社會穩定。

Policymakers, as well, face a challenge in trying to stimulate a faltering maladjusted economy without exacerbating the hardship inflicted upon much of its population from surging consumer prices.

決策者的挑戰,既拯救岌岌可危的經濟,同時又有效的抑制物價的快速上漲,進而減緩社會動蕩

Stimulus measures are working well for global market participants. For Chinese citizens, the jury is out.

對全球市場參與者而言,刺激措施效果良好。但對於「中國P民」或已是「劫數難逃」!

Meanwhile, China‘s Credit mechanism is in disarray. Over the past two years in particular, stimulus measures stoked China’s consumer borrowing and spending boom. This upsurge was integral in sustaining China‘s Bubble economy in the face of mounting manufacturing overcapacity and associated corporate Credit issues. It comes at a steep cost. In particular, China’s apartment Bubble went to even more precarious extremes.

與此同時,中國的信貸機制正在崩塌中。特別是在過去兩年,製造業產能過剩和企業金流問題日益嚴重,「流動性」的注入激起了中國消費者的借貸和消費熱潮。這種熱潮加速催生中國的「房產泡沫」,使本已泡沫化的中國經濟更是雪上加霜,並為之付出巨大代價。

February 10 – Bloomberg: 「Home sales in China have been dealt a huge blow by the spreading coronavirus with figures showing transactions plunged in the first week of February. New apartment sales dropped 90% from the same period of 2019, according to preliminary data on 36 cities compiled by China Merchants Securities Co. Sales of existing homes plummeted 91% in eight cities where data is available. ‘The sector is bracing for a worse impact than the 2003 SARS pandemic,’ said Bai Yanjun, an analyst at property-consulting firm China Index Holdings Ltd. ‘In 2003, the home market was on a cyclical rise. Now, it’s already reeling from an adjustment.‘」

2月10日-彭博社:「在中國,房屋銷售受到了冠狀病毒傳播的巨大打擊,有數據顯示,交易量在2月的第一周驟降。根據招商證券股份有限公司(China Merchants Securities Co.)統計的36個城市成交量的數據顯示,新屋銷售較2019年同期下降了90%。在有數據的8個城市,現房銷售下降了91%。房地產諮詢公司中國指數控股有限公司(China Index Holdings Ltd.)的分析師白彥軍說:「與2003年SARS時期相比,這次疫情對房產業影響巨大。2003年時,住宅市場處於上升週期,但這次市場正處在價格回調階段。」

The above 「apartment sales dropped 90%」 Bloomberg article was confirmation of the dramatic upheaval the coronavirus is having both on China‘s economy and Credit system. And while Beijing stimulus will surely have significant economic impact, it will not easily replace the flow of household mortgage finance that evolved into a powerful force for Chinese and global economies.

結合彭博社的消息,「公寓銷售下降90%」,證實了新型冠狀病毒讓中國經濟和信貸體系動蕩加劇。即使北京當局增加「流動性」的注入肯定會產生重大的經濟影響,但它不會輕易改變家庭房屋貸款對中國和全球經濟強大的影響力。

China‘s aged apartment Bubble was increasingly vulnerable prior to the coronavirus. At this point, it would appear there is a clear catalyst for the piercing of one of history’s greatest Bubbles. I‘ll assume easier lending terms and additional borrowings will bolster the gargantuan – and highly indebted – Chinese homebuilders. Yet sustaining China’s highly inflated apartment prices will prove a much greater challenge. Estimates have as many as 60 million unoccupied apartment units throughout China. Homes for 「living in and not speculation」? When risk aversion begins to take hold generally in Chinese housing (a break in inflationary psychology), there is potential for far-reaching economic and financial disruption.

在新冠狀病毒感染爆發之前,中國社會結構老齡化使得「房產泡沫」越來越不穩定。也許這次疫情,會加速刺破這個歷史上為數不多的巨大「泡沫」。筆者先假設一下,若放寬貸款條件,更多的「資金」會讓本已負債累累的中國房地產商們得以殘喘。然而,如何維持中國「虛高」的房屋價格將會是更大的難題。據估計,整個中國有多達6000萬套空置房屋。這些房屋是用於「自住」還是「投機」?不動產本投資本是用來對抗通貨膨脹的,但也有可能造成深層次的經濟和金融動蕩。

China will inevitably face its first housing and mortgage finance bust, a painful bursting Bubble episode made much worse by Beijing repeatedly resorting to stimulus measures. It‘s difficult to overstate ramifications for China’s economy, financial system and social stability.

無可避免,中國會面臨首次住房和抵押貸款泡沫的破裂!這是中國經濟和社會無法承受之重,而北京當局一再出台「刺激措施」更是提油救火。很難預言這將對中國經濟,金融體系及社會穩定的產生何等後果。

February 9 – Bloomberg: 「Just as it looked like Beijing was starting to get a handle on its regional banking crisis, a much more severe threat is engulfing the world‘s largest banking system as a deadly new virus hits the country’s economy. The impact of the spreading coronavirus risks bringing to life the worst-case economic scenarios contained in China‘s annual banking stress tests. Last year’s exercise envisaged annual economic growth slowing to as low as 4.15% -- a scenario which showed that the bad loan ratio at the nation‘s 30 biggest banks would rise five-fold. Analysts now say that the outbreak could send first-quarter growth to as little as 3.8%. Banks are already suffering record loan defaults as the economy last year expanded at the slowest pace in three decades. The slump tore through the nation’s $41 trillion banking system, forcing the first bank seizure in two decades and bailouts of two other key lenders.」

2月9日彭博社:「就好像北京當局開始解決其區域性銀行危機時一樣,隨著致命的新型病毒襲擊該國經濟,更嚴重的威脅正在吞噬全球最大的銀行體系。新冠病毒爆發的風險使中國年度銀行業壓力測試所造成的最壞的經濟前景變得不那麼遙遠。2019年的演習預計,年經濟增長率將降至4.15%,這意味著中國30家最大銀行的不良貸款率將增長五倍。分析師最新分析顯示,疫情可能使第一季度的經濟增長率降至3.8%。2019年是三十年以來經濟增長最慢的一年,銀行貸款違約率史無前例。這場蕭條席捲整個41兆元人民幣的銀行系統,也迫使中央銀行在20年來首次接管商業銀行資產,並對另外兩家主要貸款人進行了救助。」

China‘s protracted Bubble aroused delusions of grandeur – within the communist party as well as throughout its population. It’s incredible to ponder what‘s at stake. Beijing is in no way willing to cede its global ambitions. An assertive American administration only strengthens their resolve. Communist leadership will reject any challenge to its control and dominance. Meanwhile, a bursting Bubble throws everything into disarray.

中國經濟泡沫的不斷擴張,喚起共產黨及部分中國人的宏大妄想。一邊是絕不願意放棄其控制全球野心的北京當局;一邊是一個決絕的「鷹派」美國政府;一個控制一切且不接受任何挑戰其權威「共產獨裁」政府。一個 「金融泡沫」的破裂會讓一切陷入混亂!

Beijing has declared a 「people‘s war」 against the forces of Bubble deflation. And this explains why markets so confidently operate under the assumption a bust won’t be tolerated. Extraordinary fragilities only ensure epic stimulus; Chinese and global Punchbowls Runneth Over.

北京當局已經打響了針對「流動性吃緊」的「人民戰爭」。這就解釋了為什麼市場能那麼「自信」地做多,這是一場共產黨不能輸的戰爭。中國經濟的異常脆弱,只能讓它實行更加「瘋狂」的經濟刺激手段。中國和全球市場已經被注入了太多「流動性」。

「Washington will never allow a U.S. housing bust.」 「The West will never allow Russia to collapse.」 There are monumental presumptions that underpin historic boom and bust cycles. 「The Beijing meritocracy has everything under control.」

「華盛頓絕不會允許美國的房地產泡沫破滅。」 「西方永遠不會讓俄羅斯崩潰」。 「我們正在經歷最好的年代。」 「一切盡在黨的掌握之中。」

February 12 – Associated Press (Joe McDonald): 「China‘s auto sales plunged in January, deepening a painful downturn in the industry’s biggest global market and adding to economic pressures as the country fights a virus outbreak. Sales of SUVs, sedans and minivans fell 20.2% from a year earlier to 1.6 million, an industry group, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, reported… ‘Enterprises are under huge pressure,’ it said…」

美聯社2月12日-喬·麥當勞(Joe McDonald):「中國的汽車銷量在1月份驟降,全球最大市場的衰退進一步加深,並在中國應對「新冠疫情」時經濟下行壓力增加。 SUV,轎車和小型貨車的銷量較上年同期下降20.2%,至160萬輛,中國汽車工業協會報告指出:「車企正在承受著巨大壓力。」

Over the past decade, China‘s domestic auto industry grew into a behemoth. It is another critical sector both from economic and financial standpoints. And while I don’t view it in the same context as the vulnerable apartment Bubble, it is another market that could suffer lingering effects.

在過去的十年,中國的國產汽車工業有了長足的發展,在經濟和金融的層面也舉足輕重。儘管筆者並不認汽車工業的衰退可以和房屋泡沫相提並論,但它也是另一個金融市場會揮之不去的陰影。

I am well aware of the market’s view that the coronavirus crisis will soon pass.

筆者完全瞭解市場的看法,認為冠狀病毒危機將很快過去。

We can expect Beijing stimulus measures to help shore up GDP figures and stock prices. At least in the near-term, it will support confidence. Hopefully the outbreak has peaked, with stimulus measures and an accommodative banking system helping China‘s economy to muddle through. Global equities markets have been content to 「look across the valley.」 Disregarded are China’s acute financial and economic fragilities, the of risk stimulus measures exacerbating Monetary Disorder and mounting risks to social stability. How quickly does the Chinese population bounce back – again eagerly taking on debt, buying apartments and autos and dreaming of a bright and prosperous future?

我們所能預期是北京的刺激措施將有助於企穩GDP增長率和股價。至少在短期內,確信無疑。但願疫情已經達到頂峰,刺激措施和寬松的銀行政策可以幫助中國經濟渡過難關。全球股市一直沈溺於「放眼中國經濟未來」,卻忽視了中國金融和經濟體系已經嚴重脆弱,「魯莽」的刺激措施更加劇了貨幣供給體系紊亂,進而增加了社會不穩定的風險。中國人口的反彈速度有多快?他們又急切地借債、買房、買車,並夢想著一個光明和繁榮的未來。

That equities can run higher in the face of mounting risks is not as confounding as it might first appear.

Credit drives the global Bubble – and Credit in the near-term is further benefiting from the outbreak. Overheated securities (speculative) Credit is really benefited. Global monetary stimulus is further assured – rate cuts and more QE. One can now add aggressive PBOC liquidity injections to the Fed and global central bank QE throwing gas on a speculative fire raging throughout global fixed-income markets.

股市可能會繼續上漲,越來越高的市場風險也不像之前那麼恐怖了。為保經濟增長,加之「疫情」爆發,全球性降息和更多量化寬松,短期內會使得金融活動再次活躍,證券市場本已過熱(投機性)。現在,隨著美聯儲和全球央行再次量化寬松並向市場注入大量的流動性資金使得債券市場上投機氣氛濃烈。

February 13 – Bloomberg (Gregor Stuart Hunter): 「Investors who poured money into bond funds last year are showing little sign of stopping in 2020… Inflow to fixed-income assets nearly doubled last year to $1 trillion, according to… Morningstar Inc. With fears about the coronavirus outbreak dimming growth prospects for the global economy and prompting a search for haven assets, bond funds are on track to exceed this haul in 2020. ‘We’re in uncharted territory,‘ Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, a JPMorgan… strategist, said… ‘Based on January flows, it’s going to be another very strong year for bond fund flows.‘」

2月13日–彭博社(格雷戈·斯圖爾特·亨特(Gregor Stuart Hunter)):「固定收入資產投資量,去年幾乎翻了一番,至1萬億美元。與去年相比2020年向債券基金投資熱情有減緩的跡象。據晨星公司(Morningstar Inc.)分析,出於對冠狀病毒疫情的擔憂,加之全球經濟增長前景黯淡,促使人們尋找避險資產,對債券基金的投資有望在2020年再創新高。「前所未有」,摩根大通(JPMorgan)策略師尼古拉斯·潘尼吉爾佐格盧(Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou)表示:「根據1月份的資金流量,債券基金的資金流量將又是非常強勁的一年。」

Equities at record prices garner all the attention. Yet the manic behavior in global bond markets is more extraordinary and consequential. U.S. fixed income ETFs attracted another $7.3bn this week (ETF.com), as 「money」 keeps rolling in. The $64 TN question is how much speculative leverage continues to accumulate throughout global bond and derivatives markets. Here again, the timing of the coronavirus outbreak is of great consequence – inciting speculative excess and attendant leverage when global fixed-income was already engulfed by powerful Inflationary Biases. Added leveraging works to inject additional liquidity into already over-liquefied global markets. And the last thing overheated global risk markets – with such powerful Inflationary Biases – needed at this point was additional liquidity.

不斷新高的股票價格讓人「憂心忡忡」。然而,全球債券市場上的狂躁「操作」和後果還沒有引起注意。由於「資金」不斷湧入,美國固定收益基金本週錄得73億美元的資金進賬。問題是64兆美元全球債券和衍生品市場中,混入了多少槓桿投機資金?

I view the equities Bubble as an offshoot of the greater Bubble that continues to inflate in global debt, securities Credit and derivatives markets. On the one hand, it is extraordinary to see equities markets essentially dismiss such consequential developments in China. It does, however, present important support for the Bubble Thesis. Equities rallied to record highs just months before the LTCM/Russia collapse in 1998. Stocks rallied to record highs in 2007 even as the mortgage finance Bubble faltered.

筆者認為,股市泡沫是全球債務、證券信貸和衍生品市場持續膨脹的更大泡沫的一個分支。一方面,看到股市基本上無視中國的重大變化,這是不同尋常的。然而,它確實為泡沫理論提供了重要的支持。就在1998年長期資本管理公司/俄羅斯破產前幾個月,股市飆升至創紀錄高點。2007年,儘管抵押貸款金融泡沫破滅,股市仍創下歷史新高。

It‘s only fitting that global stocks rally to record highs as the faltering China Bubble places the global Bubble in serious jeopardy. If the coronavirus stabilizes over the coming weeks and months, attention can then shift to November U.S. elections. It’s poised to be One Extraordinary Year. A Friday CNBC headline: 「White House Considering Tax Incentive for More Americans to Buy Stocks, Sources Say.」 A strong equities market boosts optimism for a Trump reelection – bullishness that spurs further stock gains.

隨著步履蹣跚的中國經濟泡沫將全球經濟泡沫置於嚴重的危險之中,全球股市反彈至歷史高點看起來與歷史教訓很吻合。如果冠狀病毒在未來幾周和幾個月內趨於穩定,那麼人們的注意力就可以轉移到11月的美國大選上。這將是非凡的一年。美國全國廣播公司財經頻道(CNBC)週五的一則新聞標題是:消息人士稱,白宮正在考慮為更多美國人購買股票提供稅收激勵。強勁的股市增強了人們對特朗普連任的樂觀情緒,這種樂觀情緒刺激股市進一步上漲。

Yet there is potential for self-reinforcing dynamics to the downside. A break in stock prices would incite election nervousness and heightened market risk aversion. Can this game sustain for another nine months?

然而,這種自我強化的趨勢也有下行的可能。股價下跌將引發選舉緊張情緒,並加劇市場的風險厭惡情緒。這個遊戲還能持續9個月嗎?

編輯:【喜馬拉雅戰鷹團】