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在中美冲突中,日本可能是赢家 【中英对照翻译】

新闻来源:Asia Times

作者:BERTIL LINTNER

翻译/简评:Freedust

校对:Arron Hawk

简评:

日美同盟作为美国亚太安全架构重要的组成部分,在新冠疫情后,西太平洋局势日趋紧张之际,显得尤为重要。在中共国不断壮大其海军的同时,日本海上自卫队这支并不为世人瞩目的武装,其实具有与美国之外任何主权国家抗衡的战斗力。它的舰艇种类之完备,国防技术之先进,舰龄之新甚至超过美国,加之逐年日美联合演习的锤炼,在很多方面是中共国海军目前无法企及的。

日本在第二次世界大战战败被迫接受了美国为首的国际社会对其国家权利的约束,尤其是和平宪法限制日本军事扩张的权力。冷战结束后,随着日本经济地位的不断提高,日本不再甘心于此,一直在致力于使其国家正常化,尤其是松绑军事发展,这是一个无法回避的问题。安倍任日本首相后,这个进程明显加快,另外,由于中共国近年来咄咄逼人的军事扩张政策,也给了日本松绑军事发展的口实。美国为了完成对中共国的合围,客观上也有给日本松绑的需要。

显然,随着综合国力的提升,日本不会甘心一直受美国钳制,而是采用了独立灵活的外交政策,以日本国家利益优先,并无意成为与中共直接对抗的马前卒,在强化美日同盟的同时,加深了与印度在印度洋和太平洋的战略合作,加快了与东南亚诸国的合作,以期在东亚乃至世界事务上发挥更大的作用。

应该看到,日本配合美国遏制中共的军事扩张有着非常关键的作用,但与此同时,日本成为一个正常国家的诉求虽然无可厚非,但世界也要警惕,避免它重蹈覆辙,再次走上军国主义扩张的道路。

因为美日武装力量的存在,有可能于近期爆发的区域性冲突并不会演变为全球热战。在惊讶于这只久已封存的利剑所闪耀的光芒之余,我们希望,不要打破美日同盟一直致力于维护地区和平稳定的框架。

原文:

Japan could carry the day in a US-China conflict

在中美冲突中,日本可能是赢家

Japan's military rise has been stealthy but strong and is increasingly concentrated on China's perceived threat

日本的军事崛起一直是隐秘的,但势头强劲,而且越来越集中针对来自中共国的威胁。

Japanese Special Defense Forces in a file photo. Image: AFP/EPA 一个文档照片中的日本特种部队。 图片:法新社/欧新社

When Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said last month that the Covid-19 pandemic was the biggest national crisis since World War II, it was widely overlooked that just weeks earlier his government passed by far the nation’s biggest defense budget since the end of that conflict.

上个月,当日本首相安倍晋三表示新冠疫情大流行是自第二次世界大战以来最大的国家危机时,人们普遍忽略了他的政府仅在几周前才通过了自(二战)冲突结束以来日本最高的国防预算。

The Japanese Diet, or parliament, approved a whopping US$46.3 billion defense budget on March 27, replete with earmarks for new hypersonic anti-ship missiles and helicopter carrier upgrades that will allow for the carrying of Lockheed Martin F-35B stealth fighters.

日本国会于3月27日批准了高达463亿美元的国防预算,包括采购新的高超音速反舰导弹和升级直升机母舰,以便允许携带洛克希德·马丁公司的F-35B隐形战斗机。

Defense-related spending in Japan has traditionally aimed chiefly to shield against neighboring North Korea’s nuclear threat. But the new ramped up spending is more clearly pointed towards an expansionist and increasingly assertive China, according to Japanese military insiders.

在过去,日本与国防相关的支出主要旨在抵御邻国北朝鲜的核威胁。 但据日本军事内部人士称,新增加的支出更明确地针对日益自信并实行扩张主义的中共国。

“It is China, not North Korea, that is the main concern,” said a Japanese official who requested anonymity.

一位要求匿名的日本官员说:“主要关注的是中共国,而不是朝鲜。”

As the US ramps up Covid-19 inspired threats against China and fears of a possible armed conflict mount, many strategic analysts have speculated that the Asia-Pacific’s strategic balance may have shifted in favor of China in sight of its fast rising military might and capabilities.

随着美国因新冠疫情引发的反中威胁和对可能发生武装冲突的担忧与日俱增,许多战略分析家推测,鉴于其快速提升的军事力量和能力,亚太地区的战略平衡可能已经向对中共国有利的方向发展。

But that calculus often overlooks Japan’s stealthier military progress and the support it could provide the US in any potential conflict scenario, including through new weapons’ systems designed specifically to counter China’s new-age military assets including aircraft carriers.

但这种考量往往忽略了日本在军事上的秘密进步,以及它在任何潜在冲突情况下可能向美国提供的支持,包括用来对抗航空母舰在内的中共国新时代军事装备而专门设计的新式武器系统。

Exhibit A is Japan’s new hypersonic anti-ship missile, which is specifically designed to pose a threat to Chinese aircraft carriers in the East and South China Seas. The missile, qualified as a “game changer” by the Japanese defense establishment, can glide at high speed and follow complex patterns, making it difficult to intercept with existing anti-missile shields.

下面展示的是日本的新型高超音速反舰导弹,这种导弹是专门为在东海和南海威胁中共国航母而设计的。这种导弹被日本防卫机构称为“游戏规则改变者”,能够高速滑翔并遵循复杂的机动模式,使得现有的反导防御系统难以拦截。

Japan’s hypersonic missile is a direct response to China’s years-long campaign of maritime land-grabs and fortress-construction in the South and East China Seas. Credit: ATLA. 日本的高超音速导弹是对中共国多年来在南海和东海进行的夺取海上领土和建设军事堡垒的直接回应。来源:ATLA(Army Top Level Architecture,美军高层架构)。

When finally put into service, Japan will be the fourth country in the world after the United States, Russia and China to be armed with hypersonic gliding technology.

最终投入服役后,日本将成为世界上仅次于美国,俄罗斯和中共国之后拥有高超声速滑翔技术装备的国家。

New spending will also go towards deploying Japan’s first real aircraft carriers since World War II as well as enhancing its space security, including through research into using electronic waves to disrupt what the budget terms “enemy communication systems”, likely meaning China’s.

新国防支出还将用于部署日本自第二次世界大战以来的第一艘真正的航空母舰,并增强其太空安全性,包括研究使用电波来破坏其预算案中所说的“敌方通信系统”,这个敌方可能暗指中共国。

Japan’s bolstered naval capacities will allow it to monitor or, from its main and outlying islands, even interdict Chinese naval forces from breaking out of the Yellow Sea into the Pacific in a potential conflict scenario.

日本增强的海军能力将使其能够对中共国海军进行监视,而且在可能的冲突情况下,甚至从其主要岛屿和外围岛屿阻止中共国海军从黄海突入太平洋。

In April 2018, moreover, Japan inaugurated its first marine unit since World War II. Serving under the military’s Amphibious Rapid Deployment Brigade, it is ready for action anywhere in the immediate maritime region.

此外,2018年4月,日本成立了自第二次世界大战以来它的第一个海军陆战队,归属军方的两栖快速部署旅,随时可以在邻近海域的任何地方采取行动。

Some observers believe that the Japanese Navy is now as capable, and possibly superior, to any force in the Pacific including China.

一些观察家认为,日本海军现在与包括中共国在内的太平洋任何一支部队都不逊色,甚至可能更强。

Meanwhile, more China-oriented defense spending is on the way. Ministry of Defense forecasts show that the defense budget will increase to $48.4 billion in fiscal 2021 and rise to $56.7 billion by 2024.

同时,更多针对中共国的国防开支正在酝酿之中。国防部的预测显示,到2021财年,国防预算将增加到484亿美元,到2024年将增加到567亿美元。

That would appear to be conflict with Japan’s pacifist 1947 constitution, imposed on it by the US after its defeat in World War II to prevent a repeat of its invasions across the region.

这似乎与1947年日本和平宪法相抵触,这个宪法是美国在日本第二次世界大战战败后主导制订的,以防止日本在整个地区再次发动侵略。

A Japanese naval vessel at sea. Photo: Facebook 海上的一艘日本海军战舰。 照片:脸书

Japan’s defense budget is still maintained at 1% of gross domestic product (GDP), a rule imposed in the late 1950s to prevent Japan from becoming a military superpower, an era when memories of the country’s wartime atrocities were still fresh.

日本的国防预算仍然维持在国内生产总值(GDP)的1%,这一规定是在20世纪50年代末为防止日本成为军事超级大国而制订的,当时人们对日本战时暴行记忆尤新。

But with China’s recent strong emergence as a military power, that budgetary limit looks increasingly anachronistic and could soon be lifted if defense hawks in Tokyo have their way.

但是随着中共国最近崛起为军事强国,那个预算限制似乎越来越不合时宜,如果东京的防卫鹰派胜出,它很快就会被取消。

By law, the former expansionist power’s Self-Defense Forces (SDF) are still not permitted to maintain armed forces with war potential. But since its formation in 1954, SDF has quietly grown into one of the world’s most powerful, if not understated, militaries.

根据法律,前扩张主义势力的自卫队(SDF)仍然不允许维持具有战争潜力的武装部队。 但是自1954年成立以来,自卫队已悄然成长为世界上最强大的军事力量之一,这一点毫无夸张。

Indeed, Japan now has the world’s eighth-largest military budget, trailing only the US, China, India, Russia, Saudi-Arabia, France, Germany and the United Kingdom, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, a think tank.

智库斯德哥尔摩国际和平研究所(Stockholm International Peace Research Institute)表示,日本现在确实拥有世界第八大军事预算,仅次于美国,中共国,印度,俄罗斯,沙特阿拉伯,法国,德国和英国。

The SDF now has nearly 250,000 active personnel and is equipped with the latest weaponry and technology procured mainly from the US. That includes a wide range of missiles, fighter planes and helicopters, as well as some of the world’s most technologically advanced diesel-electric submarines and indigenously built battle tanks.

自卫队现在有将近25万现役人员,并且配备了主要从美国采购的最新武器和技术,包括各种各样的导弹,战斗机和直升机,以及一些世界上技术最先进的柴电潜艇和本土建造的战斗坦克。

Japan also maintains a permanent naval base in Djibouti on the Horn of Africa, where the US and China also maintain military bases.

日本还在非洲之角的吉布提设有永久的海军基地,美国和中共国也在此设有军事基地。

Tokyo has come under pressure from US President Donald Trump to boost its budget and shoulder more financial responsibility for US-provided defense protection at Japan-situated bases, a rising point of contention between the allies.

东京受到美国川普总统的压力,要求增加预算,并对美国在日本的基地提供的国防保护承担起更多的财务责任,这是两个盟友之间逐渐突出的争执焦点。

In April last year, then defense minister Takeshi Iwaya declared that Japan is already spending 1.3% of GDP on defense when peacekeeping operations, coastguards and other security costs are tallied.

去年四月,时任日本防卫大臣的岩井刚(Takeshi Iwaya)宣布,当维持和平行动,海岸警卫队和其他安全成本都计算在内的话,日本在国防上花费了GDP的1.3%。

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe delivers a campaign speech in Fukushima on July 4, 2019. Photo: AFP / Yomiuri Shimbun 日本首相安倍晋三于2019年7月4日在福岛发表竞选演讲。照片:法新社/读卖新闻

Tokyo has increased defense spending every year under Abe. Moreover, the constitution’s Article 9, which outlaws war as a means to settle international disputes, was re-interpreted in 2014 to allow the SDF to defend its allies, including the US, if war is declared upon them.

在安倍晋三任内,东京每年都增加了国防开支。 此外,宪法第9条将战争作为解决国际争端的一种手段,该宪法第9条在2014年得到了重新解释,以允许自卫队捍卫包括美国在内的盟国,如果敌人对他们宣战的话。

That provision has enabled Japan to participate in future more actively in military operations outside its own boundaries, a trend that actually began in the early 1990s through the SDF’s participation in a UN intervention to establish peace in war-torn Cambodia.

这项规定使日本能够在自己的疆界之外更积极地参与未来的军事行动。这一趋势实际上始于1990年代初,当时自卫队参加了联合国干预行动,以在饱经战祸的柬埔寨建立和平。

Although the SDF’s mission was termed “non-combatant”, it was the first time since World War II that Japanese troops were seen outside the country. That deployment was followed by participation in a range of other UN peace-keeping operations in Africa and East Timor. In 2004, Japan sent troops to Iraq to assist the US-led reconstruction of that country.

尽管自卫队的任务被称为“非作战性质”,但这是自第二次世界大战以来第一次在国外看到日本军队。该次行动之后,自卫队又参加了在非洲和东帝汶的一系列其他联合国维持和平行动。 2004年,日本向伊拉克派遣部队,以协助美国领导的对该国的重建。

That deployment was controversial even at home in Japan as it was the first time since World War II that Japan sent troops abroad except for participation in UN peace-keeping missions.

这次部署甚至在日本国内也是有争议的,因为这是自第二次世界大战以来日本首次派兵到国外,而且不是参加联合国维持和平任务。

But Tokyo has since increasingly coordinated its defense policies with the US as well as India, two countries which are equally worried about China’s growing clout in the Indo-Pacific region.

但是东京此后与美国和印度国防政策的协调行动越来越多,这两个国家同样对中共国在印度太平洋地区的影响力日益增强感到担忧。

Japan’s participation in Exercise Malabar, an annual tripartite naval exercise that involves partnership with the US and India since 2015, has demonstrated its naval prowess far from home and sent a muscular message to China, significantly at a time when Beijing extends its naval reach deeper into the Indian Ocean.

自2015年以来,日本参加了一年一度的三方海军演习“马拉巴尔演习”,该演习还包括美国和印度两国,这表明日本的海军实力声名远播,并向中共国发出了强烈的信息,这在北京将海军深入印度洋的时候尤为引人关注。

It is unclear whether Exercise Malabar will be conducted this year due to the Covid-19 crisis, but Japan’s defense relations with India have grown apace since Narendra Modi became prime minister in 2014.

目前尚不清楚今年因新冠疫情危机是否进行马拉巴尔演习,但自纳伦德拉·莫迪(Narendra Modi)于2014年出任总理以来,日本与印度的国防关系迅速发展。

Japanese, US and Indian vessels in the 2015 Exercise Malabar. Photo: AFP 2015年,日本、美国和印度的船只在马拉巴尔演习。照片:法新社

Japanese ambassador to India Kenji Hiramatsu, speaking to media after a visit to Japan by Indian Defense Minister Rajnath Singh in September last year, was clearly upbeat about the partnership, stating that the visit “is very significant to compare notes on various aspects of Japan-India defense cooperation, including some joint exercises [and] defense equipment cooperation…we are very excited to have a good discussion on opening the Pacific also. We are on the same page on various aspects of international affairs.”

日本驻印度大使平松健二去年9月在印度国防部长拉格纳特·辛格(Rajnath Singh)访日后对媒体发表讲话时,对这种伙伴关系显然持乐观态度,他表示,此次访问“非常重要,就日印防务合作的各个方面交换了意见,包括一些联合演习[和]防务装备合作,我们也很高兴就开放太平洋进行了很好的讨论。我们在国际事务的各个方面意见一致。

That cooperation involves not only Exercise Malabar but also land-based maneuevers. In October and November last year, a joint exercise called “Dharma Guardian-2019” between India and Japan was conducted at the military’s Insurgency and Jungle Warfare School at Vairangte in the northeastern Indian state of Mizoram.

这种合作不仅涉及马拉巴尔演习,还涉及陆基演习。 去年10月和11月,印度和日本在印度东北部米佐拉姆邦瓦伊伦格泰的军事叛乱和丛林战争学校进行了名为“ 达摩卫士-2019”的联合演习。

According to an official Indian statement at the time, the aim of the exercise was to carry out “joint training of troops in counter-insurgency and counter-terrorism operations in mountainous terrains.”

根据当时的印度官方声明,演习的目的是“对在山区的平叛和反恐行动中的部队进行联合训练。”

Why Japan would be interested in counterinsurgency operations in India was not made clear, but “the statement also said that, “Exercise Dharma Guardian-2019 will further cement the long-standing strategic ties between India and Japan.” Northeastern India is a volatile region where the border with China is still in dispute.

尚不清楚日本为何对印度的平叛行动感兴趣,但“该声明还说,“ 2019年达摩卫士演习将进一步巩固印度与日本之间的长期战略联系。” 印度东北部是一个动荡的地区,它与中共国的边界仍然存在争议。

China has been quick to respond to what it perceives as an emerging US-led, Japan-supported anti-China axis in the region. China has two combat-ready aircraft carriers, the Liaoning and the Shandong, and a third is under construction. According to the US-based International Institute for Strategic Studies, China plans to have five or six aircraft carriers by 2030.

中共国认为这是该地区由美国领导、日本支持的反华轴心的新问题,并已经迅速做出回应。中共国拥有辽宁和山东两艘随时投入战斗的航空母舰,第三艘也在建造中。根据美国国际战略研究所的数据,中共国计划到2030年拥有五到六艘航空母舰。

Hu Xijin, editor-in-chief of the Global Times, an English language newspaper under the communist party organ People’s Daily, wrote in an editorial on May 8 that China needs to expand its stockpile of nuclear warheads from 260 currently to 1,000. “Some people may call me a war monger”, Hu wrote, but “they should instead give this label to US politicians who are openly hostile to China…this is particularly true as we are facing an increasingly irrational US.”

共产党官媒人民日报旗下的英文报纸《环球时报》主编胡锡进在5月8日的社论中写道,中共国需要将其核弹头的储存量从目前的260个增加到1000个。胡写道:“有些人可能称我为战争贩子,但他们应该给那些对中共国怀有敌意的美国政客们贴上这个标签……尤其是在我们面对越来越不理性的美国的情况下。”

A Japanese Special Defense Force soldier in a drill. Photo: Flickr 一名日本特种防卫部队士兵在演习。图片:Flickr

Irrational or not, the US has stepped up its verbal attacks in China during the Covid-19 crisis with Trump even saying that the virus, which originated in China and as of May 10 had claimed 279,345 lives globally and 78,794 in the United States, is the “worst attack” ever on his country, more severe than the Japanese bombing of Pearl Harbor during World War II and the 9/11 terrorist attacks of 2001.

不论是否非理性,在新冠疫情危机期间,美国都加大了对中共国的舆论攻击,川普甚至表示,这种起源于中共国的病毒截至5月10日已在全球造成279345人死亡,在美国造成78794人死亡。 这是对他的国家“最严重的袭击”,比第二次世界大战期间日本对珍珠港的轰炸和2001年的9·11恐怖袭击更为严重。

Abe, on the other hand, has refrained from openly blaming China for the virus crisis. The Japanese government even donated medical supplies to China when it ran short of masks, gloves and other protective gear, and when the cruise ship Diamond Princess was quarantined in Yokohama, China sent testing kits to Japan while Chinese billionaire Jack Ma donated a million masks.

而安倍晋三却避免了公开指责中共国造成病毒危机。日本政府甚至在中共国缺乏口罩,手套和其他防护装备时向其捐赠了医疗用品,当游轮钻石公主号在横滨被隔离时,中共国向日本发送了测试包,而中共国亿万富翁马云捐赠了100万个口罩。

But such gestures of goodwill cannot hide the fact that new battle-lines are fast being drawn in the Indo-Pacific and that Japan will play an increasingly important role in the region’s post Covid-19 geo-strategic contests, regardless if the US becomes more or less committed to the region’s security.

但是,这种善意姿态不能掩盖这样的事实,即印度太平洋地区正在迅速划定新的战线,而且,无论美国是否会更多或更少地致力于该地区的安全,日本将在该地区的疫后地缘战略环境中发挥越来越重要的作用。

编辑【喜马拉雅战鹰团】