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中共国将出售其所持有的20%的美国国债 【中英对照翻译】

新闻来源:《零对冲》;作者:Tyler Durden;发布时间:09/04/2020

翻译/简评:云影 Julia;校对:Judy.Anderson 茱迪;审核:InAHurry;Page:拱卒

简评:

中共国近日通过【环球时报】放风出来要抛售美国国债,以此作为对美国的一个威胁。根据零对冲分析,中共抛售美债能产生的除了新闻头条效应并不能撼动美国市场。如此看来,中共国在与美国的对抗当中,已经接近黔驴技穷。等到美国真正开始出重锤时,中共国已经无力回天。中共国真实的财务状况又是如何?笔者做了如下分析:

中共国的国债储备,在2020年3月官方公布的数据是约3万亿美元左右,但在这半年的时间里,中共经济出现了跨境资本外逃,出口贸易大幅下滑,对美,日本,欧洲,香港转口贸易狂跌的情况,同时进口必需原材料、高科技芯片、石油、粮食也会导致外汇储备急降。而且中共国外债有2万亿美元左右,其中80%是美元债和20%为其它外汇债务。资产减负债等于净资产,所有者权益。故中共国美元净资产大约仅为一万亿美元左右。

与此同时,外资撤离过程中会带走7万亿美元(外资投资中共国的资本金约5万亿,而几十年来利润在中共国有近2万亿)。即使最终只有一半外资得以撤离,他们至少也会带走3.5万亿美元。如此一来,中共的外汇储备已经入不敷出。再加上借香港金管局的5000亿美元,一带一路上大撒币约7000亿美元,中共国至少有 约 4万亿美元的美元资产亏空,这个数字是近十年无锚超发M2后的GDP的近1/3。中国的巨额外汇储备是中共年年财政赤字的情况下,上演金融史上最大的偷天换日,移花接木的货币庞氏骗局!

原文翻译:

China To "Gradually" Sell 20% Of Its US Treasury Holdings, May Dump It All In Case Of "Military Conflict": State Media

中共官媒称,中共国将 "逐步 "出售其所持有的20%的美国国债,如发生 "军事冲突",可能会抛售全部

Ever since the early stages of the US-China trade/tech/virus/cold war four years ago, there were frequent rumors - which eventually gave way to increasingly legitimate chatter - that China was looking to go full "nuclear option" by selling some or all of its $1+ trillion of US Treasury securities, which incidentally has not been too far off the mark: as the chart below shows, after peaking in 2013, Chinese holdings of US debt have been steadily declining (and not so steadily in the aftermath of the Chinese devaluation), and are currently near the lowest level in 8 years.

自从四年前中美进入贸易/科技/病毒/冷战的早期阶段以来,就一直有谣言说(虽然,最终谣言已被逐步增强的合法论调所取代),中共国正在寻求使用“核武器级别的选项”,即部分或全部卖出其现有的,超过一万亿美元的美国国债。但谣言与实际情况其实并没有太大的差别。如以下图表所示,中共国持有的美国国债在2013年见顶后,其水平一直在稳步下降 (而且在人民币贬值之后,其波动幅度也有所加大),目前,中共国的美债持有水平已接近8年来的最低水平。

In any case, while Beijing has been gradually reducing its Treasury holdings it has never shocked the market with a major liquidation; and yet this ultimate threat has now found its way into China's premier state-run English language news source Global Times.

无论如何,尽管中共国政府一直在逐步减持美国国债,但从未因大规模抛售而震惊市场;然而这一终极威胁现在已经出现在了中共国主要的官方英文新闻来源《环球时报》上。

And while not official policy, the fact that GT on Thursday has made a US Treasury dump front page news, citing top "state-linked experts", is cause for concern (and certainly suggests that the Fed may soon have to step in with another massive QE to purchase whatever China has to sell).

虽然这还不是官方政策, 但是“环球时报“周四在头版发表了抛售美国国债的新闻,并援引了顶级的“官方背景的专家”。这引起了人们的担忧 (这意味着美联储可能很快将再次不得不介入并再次进行大规模的量化宽松来购买所有中共国出售的美元债)。

The Beijing-backed publication writes today that "China may gradually reduce its holdings of US Treasury bonds to about $800 billion from the current level of more than $1 trillion, as the ballooning US federal deficit increases default risks and the Trump administration continues its blistering attack on China" citing unnamed experts.

今天这个有中共国背景的报道援引了未具名的专家称,“中共国可能会逐步减少其持有的美国国债,从目前超过1万亿美元减少到大约8000亿美元, 原因是美国联邦赤字膨胀而导致其违约风险增加,以及川普施政当局对中共国持续的猛烈抨击”。

The facts are familiar to anyone who has been following the Sino-US trade war amid the US descent into fiscal hell, which as we noted earlier this week will result in the US budget deficit hitting a record $3.3 trillion and a record 107% debt/GDP in just 2-3 years: as the Global Times reviews, in the first six months of this year alone the world's second-largest holder of US debts dumped some $106 billion worth of US Treasury bonds (annualized), and is looking to continue trimming its holdings "systematically" - the publication states.

所有在美国经陷入财政困境的时候关注中美贸易战的人都熟知这些事实。正如本周早些时候我们曾指出的那样,美国财政赤字在短短2-3年内达到创纪录的3.3万亿美元,债务与GDP之比也将达到创纪录的107%。据《环球时报》报道,仅在今年上半年,作为世界第二大美国国债持有者的中共国抛售了价值1060亿美元的美国国债(折合年化率),并打算继续“系统性地”减持美国国债。

A key reason stated for the liquidation is that China is anxious over risks associated with the surging debt level in the US, which is expected to actually exceed the size of the economy in 2021, which would be a first since the end of World War II. What's worse is that as the CBO has shown, what happens over the next 3 decades is even more insane.

抛售的一个关键原因是中共国对美国不断飙升的债务水平所带来的风险感到担忧。2021年,美国的债务水平预计将超过实际的经济规模,这将是二战结束以来的首次。更糟糕的是,正如国会预算办公室所显示的那样,未来30年将发生的事情甚至更加疯狂。

One expert cited in the GT report, professor at the Shanghai University of Finance and Economics Xi Junyang, emphasized that "China will gradually decrease its holdings of US debt to about $800 billion under normal circumstances."

He added in what appears the most interesting and "dire scenario" quote in the article (or we're perhaps meant to take it as a veiled threat under the guise of a mere aside):

环球时报报道中援引的一位专家,上海财经大学奚俊阳教授强调:“正常情况下,中共国将逐步减少所持有的美国国债至约8000亿美元。”

他的话为文章补充的正是其中最有趣和“可怕的情景”(或者我们其实应该把这些话当作一种伪装下的,隐晦的威胁):

But as we detailed previously, such a "nuclear option" may not be that nuclear after all, since the Fed has monetized three times as much debt as China holds in the past 3 months without a glitch - meanwhile, even though dumping its US paper would result in some brief dramatic headlines, not only would it not affect the US, but would prove too self-destructive for Beijing to pursue outright (which currently calibrates and fine-tunes its exchange ratio with the help of its trillions in US reserves). Still, the fact that Beijing views such as an option as an alternative if not bargaining chip, enough to mention it again in the state-owned media, suggests that the possibility of a full-blown capital war is now at hand.

但是如我们之前详细说明了的,像这样的“核武器级别的选项”可能最后不一定是核武器,原因是过去3个月内美联储已经增发相当于中共国持有的美国国债的3倍,没有任何的问题。与此同时, 尽管抛售美国国债会造成一些短暂的戏剧性头条, 但这不仅不会影响到美国,而且事实证明,这种行为对北京来说,如果公然实施将是自我毁灭(中共政府目前正借助其数万亿美元外汇储备,校准和微调其汇率)。不过,中共政府将此视为一种选择,或者谈判筹码,并足以在官方媒体上再次提及,这本身就表明一场全面资本战争的可能性已在眼前。

Should China proceed with this highly symbolic if largely innocuous escalation, one can only imagine what the US retaliation would be.

如果中共国继续这种高度象征性的(威胁)升级,尽管(这些口头威胁)基本上是无害的,但人们可以想象美国将采取何种报复行动。

编辑:【喜马拉雅战鹰团】Edited by:【Himalaya Hawk Squad】