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这是中共市场狂涨的原因吗? 【中英对照翻译】

新闻来源:Zero Hedge《零对冲》;作者:Tyler Durden,07/06/2020 / 2020年7月6日

翻译/简评:万人往;校对:Julia Win;Page:拱卒

简评:

最近中共金融市场非常活跃,股市连续上涨,美元兑离岸人冥币回到7以下。中共官方的解释是疫情防控有效,经济长期向好,外资大举买入。听了新闻联播的忽悠,证券公司开户人数增加,被A股割了好几轮韭菜的老股民也迫不及待找回尘封多年的账户密码,希望能搭上这轮“牛市”的顺风车。

按照市场经济学的理论,需求增加导致价格上涨,有资金流入导致股市上涨。中共市场显然不符合市场经济学。中共玩的是流氓经济学,用“看不见的手”操纵电脑,直接改指数。这轮所谓“牛市”中,权重股上涨幅度较大,带动大盘上涨。贵州茅台股价盘中突破1700,市值超过2.1万亿人冥币,不知道官方会不会做出如下解释:全国人民紧密团结在习核心的领导下,实现全面小康,全面脱贫,可支配收入大幅增长,有钱了都不知道怎么花,只好买几千元一瓶的茅台,茅台销量激增带动股价不断创历史新高。

这轮“牛市”有个特点,无论赚钱还是亏钱,只要不换成外汇,最后都会亏本。当中共全面禁止换汇时,炒A股赚的钱,不知能否多买几袋米?

原文:

Is This The Real Reason For China's Massive Market Meltup?

这是中共国市场大规模狂涨的原因吗?

Now that Hong Kong is facing a creeping monetary boycott by the US, and more importantly, by the US financial system as a result of its de facto annexation by China, a pesky question has emerged: how will China procure those much needed dollars which are oh so critical to keep the Chinese financial system, all $40 trillion of it, functioning smoothly.

由于事实上已被中共国侵蚀,现在香港正面临着美国悄然而至的货币抵制,更重要的是,来自美国金融体系的抵制,一个麻烦的问题出现了:中共国将如何获得那些急需的、至关重要的美元来维持其40万亿美元的金融体系运作顺利。

While there has been surprisingly little discussion of this critical topic in the financial media, which looking at soaring stocks in China and the US is left with the false impression that all is well, one person who has continued to hammer this topic home has been Rabobank's Michael Every, who this morning once again raised the alert level over China's USD access:

然而,金融媒体对这个关键话题的讨论却少得惊人,看着中共国和美国飙升的股市,人们会有一种一切都很好的错觉,只有荷兰合作银行(Rabobank)的迈克尔·艾佛尔( Michael Every)一直在反复强调这个话题,他今天上午再次就中共国的美元准入问题提高了警戒级别:

Note this South China Morning Post article titled “Time for China to decouple the yuan from US Dollar, former diplomat urges”. Zhou Li, a former deputy director of the CCP’s International Liaison Department is “the latest in a series of voices in China” to warn the USD Weapon is real and “has us by the throat”, will pose an “increasingly severe threat” to Chinese development --USD oil sanctions seen as a key area of vulnerability-- and so preparations for gradual decoupling and CNY internationalisation should begin “now”. Li adds China should “give up the illusion” of friendship and instead prepare for full-fledged conflict with the US.

请注意《南华早报》一篇名为《前外交官敦促,中共国是时候让人民币与美元脱钩了》的文章。原中联部副部长周力,发出“中共国最新的一系列声音”,警告美元武器是真实的,“呃我咽喉”,这将对中共国的发展构成一个“日益严重的威胁”(美元石油制裁被视为脆弱的关键领域),因此,准备逐步脱钩、人民币国际化应从现在该开始。周力还说,中共国应该“放弃友谊的幻想”,准备与美国发生全面冲突。

His specific proposal is to increase cross-border payments and clearing, local FX settlement, and maximize CNY usage in industrial supply chains. The problems in internationalizing CNY are manifold, however, which is why the USD weapon exists. The capital account would need to be opened, precipitating a collapse in CNY as money floods out.

他具体的建议是增加跨境支付和清算、本地外汇结算,并在产业供应链中最大限度地使用人民币。然而,人民币国际化的问题是多方面的,这也是美元武器存在的原因。资本账户需要开放,随着资金大量外流,人民币将暴跌。

So with the natural gateway for more inbound dollars suddenly clogged up, China has to find other, just as effective ways to attract US dollars into its economy: by drawing foreign investors into its stock market. Here is Every again:

因此,随着更多入境美元的天然门户被突然堵塞,中共国必须找到其它同样有效的方式来吸引美元进入其经济:吸引外国投资者进入其股市。再来一遍:

To try to counter that, it’s China bubble time again – not just in property, but in stocks: the Shanghai exchange was up 4% at time of writing today, and 7% last week, as Chinese press openly talk up a new bull market --despite a flat economy-- going so far as to imply this is part of the struggle between the “world’s powers”, according to Bloomberg: with different percentages, the same dynamic is of course true in the US. Yet for both this is lethal can-kicking at best that only creates far larger problems.

试图反驳说,中共国泡沫又来了(不仅仅是房地产),而且在股市方面:上证指数在本文写作时上涨4%,上周上涨7%,中共国媒体公开谈论一个新的牛市(尽管经济不景气)甚至暗示这是“世界大国”之间斗争的一部分,据彭博社报道:虽然百分比不同,但美国当然也存在同样的情况。然而,对这两种情况来说,这充其量是致命的“踢罐子”(拖延问题),只会带来更大的问题。

There is just one problem: if Beijing relies on existing inertia it will fail miserably, because as the following Chart of the week from Goldman shows, China-dedicated equity funds saw an 11th consecutive week of net outflows.

只有一个问题:如果北京当局依赖现有的惯性,它将惨败,因为如来自高盛的下图所示,专门投资中共国的股票基金出现了连续第11周的净流出。

And as a result of the substantial outflows, Goldman believes that "underweight positioning may have contributed to the outsized gains in Chinese shares and the Yuan at the start of this week."

高盛认为,由于资本大量外流,“减持仓位可能是中共国股市和人民币在本周初大幅上涨的原因之一。

Maybe, but what is far more likely is that Beijing turned on turbo boost in the infamous National Team, aka China's Plunge Protection Team, which led to a stunning rally in Chinese equities since March, with the CSI300 surging 32% since its Q1 troughs, and 14% in the past 5 trading days, while the Shanghai Composite soared almost 6% on Monday, its biggest one day gain since the bubble of 2015.

也许吧,但更有可能的是,北京当局在臭名昭著的国家队(即中共国暴跌保护团队)上加大了“涡轮增速“力度,这导致中共国股市自3月以来惊人的上涨,沪深300指数自第一季度低谷以来飙升32%,在过去5个交易日累计上涨14%,上证综合指数周一飙升近6%,是自2015年泡沫以来上涨幅度最大的一天。

上证综合指数日线涨跌幅百分比图

So why the massive intervention and ramp of stocks by Beijing officials?

那么,为什么北京当局官员大举干预拉涨股市呢?

The answer is simple: taking a page of the Robinhood playbook, China is desperate to halt and reverse the massive equity outflows as it urgently needs the flow of US Dollars to reverse into Chinese markets, instead of away from. To do that, it needs to create an initial upward momentum in prices which halts the selling/outflows and prompts a reappraisal of Chinese asset values. Ideally, it will also capture the euphoria of US daytraders who will buy Chinese, not US stocks.

答案很简单:借鉴罗宾汉(Robinhood)的剧本,中共国迫切希望阻止和逆转大规模的资本外流,因为它迫切需要美元回流到中共国市场,而不是撤出。要做到这一点,它需要在价格上创造一种开始上涨的势头,以阻止抛售/流出,并促使人们重新评估中共国的资产价值。理想情况下,它还将捕捉到美国日内交易员的兴奋情绪,他们将购买中共国股票,而不是美国股票。

Whether China succeeds is unclear, however it simply has no option and must follow through this plan until the bitter end, even if it means blowing an even bigger stock bubble than in 2015.

中共国能否成功尚不清楚,但它别无选择,必须坚持这个计划,直到痛苦结局,即使这意味着吹出比2015年更大的股市泡沫。

And as we reported this morning, Beijing is clearly on board: realizing that the economy is far weaker than a SHCOMP print of 3,400 will support, Beijing still sent a message to the Chinese population when a front-page editorial in the state-owned China’s Securities Journal said that fostering a "healthy" bull market after the pandemic is now more important to the economy than ever.

正如我们今天早上的报道,北京当局显然参与其中:意识到经济远远弱于3400点的上证指数所支撑的,北京当局仍然给国人传递一个信号,国有的《中共国证券日报》的头版社论中说,在大瘟疫后培养一个“健康”的牛市对经济的影响比以往任何时候都要重要。

Why? Because without the "bull market" the equity outflows would continue, and soon China will run out of dollars, an outcome which would have far more catastrophic financial, monetary and geopolitical consequences for both China and the entire world than a 2nd (and 3rd and 4th) Covid wave, coupled with a Biden win and a permanently jammed Fed money printer.

为什么?因为没有“牛市”,资本仍将继续流失,很快中共国将耗尽美元,结果将对中共国和整个世界造成更大灾难性的金融、货币和地缘政治影响,比第二(以及第三、第四)波冠状病毒,加上拜登当选和永久卡住美联储印钱机还严重。

And so far it's working: the Shangai Composite is up 2% in early trading...

到目前为止,它还在发挥作用:上证综合指数早盘上涨了2%……

编辑:【喜马拉雅战鹰团】Edited by:【Himalaya Hawk Squad】