新闻来源：Reuters《路透社》；作者：Cheng Leng, Julie Zhu, Engen Tham；发布时间：July 9, 2020 / 2020年7月9日

翻译/简评：万人往；校对：沐子璐璐；Page：拱卒

简评：

中共知道躲不过美国的制裁，于是制定紧急计划应对，包括学习伊朗银行的“先进”经验。美元兑伊朗里亚尔从上世纪的32.25一路飙升至今天的42000，这只是官方汇率，老百姓按官方汇率当然换不到美元，黑市汇率高达156000。不知道中共学习伊朗银行应对美国制裁的经验有没有包括货币恶性贬值？

美国制裁的大锤落下后，中美金融彻底脱钩，人民币、港币变成冥币在所难免。希望同胞们赶紧处理人民币、港币资产，现在还有机会换汇、囤物资，尽量减缓脱钩带来的冲击。

原文：

Exclusive: Chinese banks prepare contingency plans over threat of U.S. sanctions – sources

独家消息:中共国银行准备应急计划应对美国制裁的威胁

BEIJING/HONG KONG/SHANGHAI (Reuters) - Chinese state lenders are revamping contingency plans in anticipation of U.S. legislation that could penalise banks for serving officials who implement the new national security law for Hong Kong, sources at five state financial institutions said.

路透北京/香港/上海——五家国有金融机构的消息人士称，中共国有银行正在修订应急计划，来防范美国立法惩罚那些服务实施香港新国安法的官员们的银行。

In worst-case scenarios under consideration by the Bank of China and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC), the lenders are looking at the possibility of being cut off from U.S. dollars or losing access to U.S. dollar settlements, two sources said.

两名消息人士称，中国银行和中国工商银行估计会面对的最坏情况，是两家银行会被切断美元业务或失去美元结算渠道。

The dollar is the dominant global currency for international payments and central bank reserves.

美元是国际支付和央行储备的主要全球货币。

“We are hoping for the best, but preparing for the worst. You never know how things will turn out,” one of the sources said.

其中一名消息人士称：“我们抱有最好的希望，但做最坏的打算。你永远不知道事情会变成什么样子。”

Reflecting concern over the erosion of the former British colony’s autonomy, the U.S. House and Senate unanimously passed the bill last week. It has yet to be signed into law by President Donald Trump.

美国参众两院上周一致通过了这项法案，反映出人们对前英国殖民地香港的自治权受到侵蚀的担忧。该法案尚未由川普总统签署成为法律。

The bill calls for sanctions on Chinese officials and others who help violate Hong Kong’s autonomy and on financial institutions that do business with them. But it does not spell out what the sanctions would look like.

该法案要求制裁帮助侵犯香港自治的中共官员和其他人士，以及与他们有业务往来的金融机构，但它没有说明制裁措施的具体内容。

“There are sanctions in this bill which could be interpreted to prevent a bank from clearing some dollar transactions via U.S. institutions, but unlike other congressional sanctions bills there are not specific provisions mandating it,” said Nick Turner, a lawyer specialising in sanctions and anti-money laundering at Steptoe & Johnson in Hong Kong.

香港世强律师事务所一位专门研究制裁和反洗钱的律师Nick Turner说：“该法案的制裁可以解释为阻止银行通过美国机构清算一些美元交易,但不像其他国会制裁法案，该法案没有强制实施的具体规定。”

He said it remained to be seen whether the law would be used in such a way.

他说，这项法律是否会根据制裁规定的方式执行还有待观察。

In a milder scenario being looked at by the Agricultural Bank of China (AgBank), lenders would need to find ways to address the problem of clients blacklisted by the United States, especially those who might face a sudden loss of liquidity, a third source said.

第三位消息人士称，中国农业银行估计如果制裁不会太强硬的情况下，银行要做的是设法解决被美国列入黑名单的客户的问题，特别是那些可能面临突然失去流动性资产的客户。

The sources all declined to be named as the planning is confidential. Bank of China, ICBC and AgBank did not immediately respond to Reuters requests for comment.

由于计划保密，消息人士均拒绝透露姓名。中国银行、中国工商银行和中国农业银行没有立即回应路透社的置评请求。

LEASING FIRMS TOO

租赁公司也一样

The contingency planning has been initiated by the banks themselves, three of the sources said.

其中三位消息人士称，各家银行已经启动了应急计划。

The People’s Bank of China and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, top financial regulators overseeing country’s financial stability and the banking sector, did not immediately respond to Reuters requests for comment.

负责监督国家金融稳定和银行部门的（中共国）最高金融监管机构人民银行和银监会，都没有立即回应路透社的置评请求。

The worst-case scenario under consideration by the Bank of China also envisions what would happen in the event of a run on its branches in Hong Kong if customers feared that it would run out of U.S. currency, one of the sources said.

其中一名消息人士称，中国银行考虑的最坏情况还包括如果发生挤兑怎么办。比如若客户担心该行的美元耗尽，然后去其香港分行挤兑。

It is also looking at the experience of banks in Iran, the same person said. Iranian banks have been hit from time to time by U.S. sanctions dating back to the 1979 Islamic Revolution.

该人士还说，中国银行也在研究伊朗银行的经验。自1979年伊斯兰革命以来，伊朗银行一直受到美国制裁的打击。

Bank of China, the country’s most international lender, had the biggest exposure of the country’s big four lenders to the greenback at the end of 2019, with about $433 billion in liabilities.

在2019年底，作为中共国国际化程度最高的银行中国银行，它是中共国四大银行中美元风险敞口最大的，负债约为4330亿美元。

China’s top four banks, which also include ICBC, China Construction Bank and AgBank, had a combined 7.5 trillion yuan ($1 trillion) in U.S. dollar liabilities at the end of 2019, annual reports show.

年度报告显示，截至2019年底，中共国四大银行（中国银行，工商银行、建设银行和农业银行）的美元负债总额为人民币7.5万亿元(合1万亿美元)。

The sources also said that least three state-run leasing firms, including an ICBC unit and CSIC Leasing, are also making contingency plans. Leasing firms are often heavily reliant on dollar borrowing to fund purchases of aircraft, machinery and facilities.

消息人士还表示，至少三家国有租赁公司也在制定应急计划，其中包括工银租赁和中船租赁。租赁公司通常严重依赖美元借款来购买飞机、机械和设备。

ICBC Leasing and CSIC Leasing did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

工银租赁和中船租赁均未立即回复置评请求。

编辑：【喜马拉雅战鹰团】Edited by：【Himalaya Hawk Squad】