新闻来源：Zerohedge《零对冲》；作者：Tyler Durden；发布时间：07/15/2020
翻译/简评：Victory；校对/审核：海阔天空；Page：拱卒
简评：
中共一向将台湾视为威胁，因为中共政权本来就是窃取中华民国政权，没有任何合法性，所以中华民国台湾的存在，始终让它们寝食难安。更重要的是，民主台湾的繁荣和自由，彻底击碎了无耻的中共说中国人还没准备好民主化的谎言。台湾向全世界，尤其是向中国人展示了华人群体民主国家的运作方式，人民如何真正当家作主成为自己的主人。台湾的存在无时无刻不在打脸中共，所以中共几十年来一直想攻占台湾。但美国一直是台湾的盟友，只是它们掂量一下实力，就不敢轻举妄动。
如今的中共穷途末路，垂死挣扎，看到全世界都准备来揍它，很可能破罐子破摔，绑架着中国人民殊死一搏，以求得一线生机。但如果它真敢派军入侵台湾之时，就是中共自掘坟墓、彻底完蛋之日。
原文：
Chinese Military Exercises Threaten To Invade Taiwan
中国军演威胁要入侵台湾
Authored by Lawrence Franklin via The Gatestone Institute
门石学院劳伦斯·富兰克林撰写
China's People's Liberation Army (PLA) is currently staging a military exercise across from the Taiwan Strait that looks as if it plans to culminate in an amphibious assault on an island in the South China Sea. Taiwan's military -- evidently fearing, with good reason, that the exercise may be a cover for an actual Chinese plan to seize another island in the region, Pratas (Dongsha), claimed by both the People's Republic of China (PRC) and Taiwan -- has declared a state of emergency. The PLA exercise also looks as if it is preparing China's air, naval and marine assets required for an invasion of Taiwan.
中共国人民解放军正在台湾海峡对面举行军演，看起来它们准备在南中国海的某个岛屿展开两栖登陆进攻。台湾军方显然有充分的理由担心，这一演习可能只是个幌子，而其真实计划是打算夺取该区域的另一个岛屿——普拉塔斯群岛（东沙），中共国和台湾都对该岛主张主权。台湾已经宣布进入紧急状态。中共军方此次军演似乎也在为中共的空军、海军、海军陆战队做好入侵台湾的准备。
In 1996, China initiated a similar crisis in the Taiwan Strait by staging an amphibious assault military exercise. After President Bill Clinton deployed two powerful US aircraft carrier-led battle groups, China discontinued its aggressive posture toward Taiwan. Strategic analysts judged that the Chinese decision was the fruit of a realistic assessment that it could not overcome the US ability to defend Taiwan.
1996年，中共军方也在台湾海峡发动了一场类似的两栖攻击军演危机。在克林顿总统派遣了2个强大的航母战斗群后，中共才终止了其对台的挑衅姿态。战略分析师判断，中共的决定是一种现实评估的结果，即中共国无法战胜美国保卫台湾的能力。
The Chinese Communist Party (CCP), under current Chairman Xi Jinping, appears to be threatening war in a renewed effort to bring Taiwan under Communist Chinese control. The CCP considers Taiwan to be a Chinese province, an integral part of the mainland that ultimately must rejoin it, and the only remaining part of China yet to be returned after the Communists defeated the Nationalists in 1949. For China, it is unfinished business from 70 years ago. China has isolated Taiwan by requiring that all countries who want to have normal diplomatic ties with China must have no state-to-state links with Taiwan. Although the US consents to this diplomatic requirement, it also continues to provide Taiwan with weapon systems, enabling the island to defend itself against any Chinese invasion. US President Donald J. Trump recently authorized the latest sale of US weapons -- including advanced heavy torpedoes -- to Taiwan. Trump, earlier in his tenure, also approved the sale of anti-aircraft Stinger missiles, Abrams tanks, and F-16 fighter jets.
习近平统治下的中共，似乎威胁要发动战争，尝试重新把台湾纳入共产中国统治。中共认为台湾是中国的一个省，是大陆不可分割的一部分，最终必须回归，也是中共在1949年打败国民党之后剩下的唯一未回归的土地。对中共国来说，这是其70年前的未竟事业。中共国通过要求所有和中共建交的国家不能与台湾有国与国的外交关系来孤立台湾。虽然美国同意这一外交要求，但仍然为台湾提供武器系统，使台湾对中共国的入侵有自卫能力。美国总统川普最近批准了新的对台军售—包括先进的重型鱼雷。在川普总统任职早期，还曾批准销售防空毒刺导弹、艾布拉姆斯坦克和F-16战斗机。
Many foreign specialists on China seem to discount the possibility that the Chinese are willing to risk war with the West to subdue Taiwan. Serious consideration should nevertheless be given to the Chinese Communist Party's (CCP) determination to incorporate the "secessionist" province despite the danger of a conflict, especially if China considers the US distracted by the fallout of the Wuhan coronavirus that China unleashed on the world, and American voter squeamishness before a presidential election in four months.
很多外国中共国问题专家似乎低估了中共国不惜与西方一战而入侵台湾的可能性。尽管如此，西方仍应予以认真考虑中共冒着冲突风险去统一此“分裂”省的决心。尤其是中共国认为美国被中共释放出的武汉病毒分散了注意了力，而且美国选民对四个月后的总统大选紧张情绪高涨。
The CCP views Taiwan as an existential threat to continued Communist rule in China. Taiwan's vibrant democracy is the alternate model to the CCP's totalitarian rule. Despite China's efforts to cut Taiwan off from the world, the country remains an economically successful and politically free society, less than 90 miles from the Chinese coast.
中共把台湾看作维持其在共产中国统治的威胁。台湾充满活力的民主制度是中国极权统治的另一种替代模式。虽然中共国努力将台湾和世界孤立，但台湾依然保持了经济繁荣和政治自由，仅仅距中共国海岸90英里。
Millions of mainland Chinese have visited Taiwan, a practice which could stimulate pressure by Chinese citizens on the Communist regime for liberalizing political reforms. If China assesses that its growing military power could quickly reduce Taiwan's ability to defend itself or that the West has lost the will to defend the island, CCP Chairman Xi might direct the PLA to launch an invasion.
数百万的中共国大陆人去过台湾，这种做法可能会刺激中共国公民向中共极权施加压力，要求其实现政治改革自由化。如果中共国认为其增长的军力可以迅速削弱台湾自卫能力，或者西方国家已经失去防卫台湾的能力，中共军方主席可能让其军队发动进攻。
China also doubtless took stock of the free world's obliging passivity the past few weeks as Beijing seized Hong Kong. Not one country lifted a finger to stop them. The move was in explicit violation of China's 1997 Joint Declaration with the United Kingdom to maintain "one country, two systems" until 2047.
毫无疑问，中共国还估量了在过去几周北京对香港入侵时，自由世界的被动顺从。没有一个国家动过一个手指来阻止它们。这一举动是对1997年中英联合声明在2047年前保持“一国两制”的明显违背。
Presently, China seems to be assessing the West's resolve to defend Taiwan, while simultaneously attempting to instill fear in the administration of Taiwan's President Tsai Ing-wen. China initiated this latest aggressive posture toward Taiwan shortly after President Tsai's May 2016 election, possibly anticipating that Taiwan could declare formal independence from China. In recent months, the PLA's deployment of air and naval assets near Taiwan have been violating the island's airspace and territorial waters.
现在，中共国似乎在评估西方国家保护台湾的决心，同时试图恐吓台湾蔡英文政府。在蔡英文总统2016年5月大选后不久，中共国对台湾采取了最新的强硬姿态，可能是估计台湾会正式宣布独立。近几个月，中共解放军空军海军在台湾周边的兵力部署一直在侵犯台湾的领空和领海。
China's aggressive moves have included its deployment of Air Force H-6 bombers and SU-30 and J-11 fighter jets. China's ongoing 79-day military exercise (May 14 - July 31) opposite Taiwan is being orchestrated by the PLA's Southern Theater of Command, headquartered in Nanning, the capital city of China's Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region in the south. The exercise features the dual deployment of the Chinese Navy's two aircraft carriers, the Shandong and the Liaoning, just across the narrow Taiwan Strait in China's Bohai Sea. The exercise is utilizing air-cushioned boats, amphibious assault vehicles, landing barges, and ground attack helicopters. Reportedly, the ongoing PLA military exercise will conclude with an amphibious assault by Chinese Marines upon Woody Island (Yongxing) in the Philippine Sea, south of Taiwan. Woody Island is occupied by Chinese troops is also claimed by Taiwan and Vietnam (which calls the island Phu Lam).
中共国的激进举动包括部署空军轰6（轰炸机）和苏—30和歼11。中共军队的79天的反台湾军演（5月14日-7月31日）是由中共解放军南部战区（总部位于南宁，广西壮族自治区省会）精心策划的。此次演习的特点是，中共国海军的两艘航空母舰“山东”号和“辽宁”号同时部署在渤海狭窄的台湾海峡对面。演习使用气垫船、两栖攻击车、登陆驳船和地面攻击直升机。据报道，本次中共军演将以海军陆战队两栖攻击位于台湾南部、菲律宾海的伍迪岛（永兴岛）结束。伍迪岛被中共军队占领，但同时台湾和越南（称之为富林岛）也对其主张主权。
In response to China's threatening exercise, Major General Lin Wen-Huang, Chief of Taiwan's Joint Operations, asserted that Taiwan's military had plans and preparations in place. General Lin, perhaps fearing that the actual target of the PLA amphibious assault is the Taiwan-occupied island of Pratas (Dongsha), 548 kilometers southwest of Taiwan, reinforced the island's small Coast Guard contingent with hundreds of Taiwanese Marines from the 99th Brigade.
作为对中共军演威胁的回应，林文煌（Lin Wen-Huang音译）少将，台湾联合行动负责人，宣称台湾军方有计划和准备。林将军可能担心解放军两栖攻击的真实目标是台湾占领的普拉塔斯群岛（东沙），位于台湾西南548公里处，加强了此岛的小型海岸警卫队，有数百个台湾来自第99旅的海军陆战队员。
Taiwan's armed forces maintain close communication with the US military. In a "cross-strait" confrontation between Taiwan and China, American air and naval assets would be granted complete access to Taiwanese airfields and ports. The Trump Administration, signaling China not to assume dominance in the South and East China Seas, has conducted seven such "Freedom of Navigation" missions through the Taiwan Strait in 2020, and the US Navy has already deployed three aircraft carrier battle groups in the South China Sea.
台湾军方和美军保持密切着联系。在台湾和中共国两岸对峙中，美国空军和海军将拥有台湾机场和港口的完全使用权。川普政府警告中共不要妄想在中共国海南部和东部的主导权，2020年共进行了7次穿越台湾海峡的“自由航行”行动，同时美军已经在南中国海部署了3个航母战斗群。
China's Communist leaders should not miscalculate that the US is too immersed in domestic distractions to defend Taiwan militarily against any possible plans to threaten the island's sovereignty.
中共领导不应该地错误，美国过于专注于国内事务，无法在军事上保护台湾，抵御任何可能威胁台湾主权的计划。
编辑：【喜马拉雅战鹰团】Edited by：【Himalaya Hawk Squad】