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A new study from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, titled "Fertility, mortality, migration, and population scenarios for 195 countries and territories from 2017 to 2100: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study" estimates the global population in 2100, including four alternative scenarios based on progress toward two key drivers of fertility rates: women’s education, and access to reproductive health.

This new study, published in The Lancet, projects that the global population will peak in 2064 at 9.73 billion people and decline to 8.79 billion people by 2100. Population change is set to dictate major shifts in global power over the course of the 21st century, as most countries face new economic, social, environmental and geopolitical challenges arising from aging and declining populations.

“The societal, economic, and geopolitical power implications of our predictions are substantial. In particular, our findings suggest that the decline in the numbers of working-age adults alone will reduce GDP growth rates that could result in major shifts in global economic power by the century’s end. Responding to population decline is likely to become an overriding policy concern in many nations, but must not compromise efforts to enhance women’s reproductive health or progress on women’s rights," says IHME Professor Stein Emil Vollset, first author of the paper.

Use the links, images, and text below to share key messages and findings from this study on social media.

What will the global population look like in 2100? The latest tool from @IHME_UW lets you compare demographic trends and population pyramids across five scenarios projected to 2100. Check out the visualization: 📈 vizhub.healthdata.org/population-forecast

New projections from @IHME_UW show the year at which the total fertility rate will fall below the replacement rate by country. By 2100, 183 countries and territories out of 195 will have a TFR below the replacement level. 🌎»https://bit.ly/Pop2100

The latest research from @IHME_UW shows India, Nigeria, China, the USA, and Pakistan are projected to be the most populous countries in 2100. Populations will peak in India and China before 2050 and see steep declines through 2100. More in @TheLancet ➡️https://bit.ly/Pop2100

.@IHME_UW's recent work on population forecasting is an important planning tool for governments to estimate the need for schools, healthcare resources, infrastructure, and other public services through 2100. Learn more in @TheLancet #GBDstudy➡️https://bit.ly/Pop2100

.@IHME_UW estimates total fertility rate (TFR) will reach 1.66 by 2100, dropping below the replacement rate of 2.1 by 2034, in their new study on population forecasting. #GBDstudy Check out the study in @TheLancet ➡️https://bit.ly/Pop2100

New forecasts from @IHME_UW: Total fertility rate in sub-Saharan Africa is projected to reach 1.73 in 2100, dropping below the replacement rate of 2.1 in 2063. These changes are largely due to increases in female education & access to contraception. ➡️https://bit.ly/Pop2100

New research from @IHME_UW #GBDstudy on population forecasting shows that the global population is projected to peak in 2064 at 9.73 billion and decline to 8.79 billion by 2100. The study is available online in @TheLancet ➡️https://bit.ly/Pop2100

In 2100, with more adults over 80 than children under 5 (an inverted population pyramid), there will be significant societal re-structuring with major implications for the workforce, education systems, and social support systems, among other factors. https://bit.ly/Pop2100

The latest research from @IHME_UW shows India, Nigeria, China, the USA, and Pakistan are projected to be the most populous countries in 2100. Populations will peak in India and China before 2050 and see steep declines through 2100. More in @TheLancet ➡️https://bit.ly/Pop2100

Large declines in working age populations are projected for China and India. Although the US is projected to see a low total fertility rate by 2100, its workforce will be sustained by immigration. #GBDstudy More details in @TheLancet ➡️https://bit.ly/Pop2100

China is projected to have the largest economy by 2035, but will likely be surpassed by the United States in 2098 due to population decline. Several countries, including Australia and Israel, will see GDP growth by increasing immigration to sustain their workforces. Details in @TheLancet ➡️https://bit.ly/Pop2100

.@IHME_UW Director Dr. Christopher J.L. Murray explains a key factor for economic growth in the coming century. Read "Fertility, mortality, migration, and population scenarios for 195 countries and territories from 2017 to 2100" published in @TheLancet ➡️https://bit.ly/Pop2100

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About the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation

The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) is an independent global health research organization at the University of Washington School of Medicine that provides rigorous and comparable measurement of the world’s most important health problems and evaluates the strategies used to address them. IHME is committed to transparency and makes this information widely available so that policymakers have the evidence they need to make informed decisions on allocating resources to improve population health.