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6月份中共国外汇流出达90亿美元 【中英对照翻译】

新闻来源:Zero Hedge《零对冲》;作者:Tyler Durden;发布时间:07/17/2020

翻译/简评:万人往;校对:leftgun;审核:海阔天空;Page:拱卒

简评:

在中共“严防死守”的外汇管制下,6月外汇净流出90亿美元,其中包括50亿美元的人冥币跨境支付。

中共号称有3万亿美元的外汇储备,排名世界第一,着实增加了不少粉红的民族自豪感。中共外债余额超过2万亿美元,还有超过1万亿美元的海外投资者的本金和利润,3万亿外储包含了“一贷一掳”大撒币的应收账款(实际上根本收不回来)滥竽充数,中共的外汇已经资不抵债。再加上美国持有市值超过1万亿美元的湖广铁路债券(清朝1911年发行),中共的外汇彻底破产。

人冥币的发行以外汇和债券为锚,在外汇破产,债券违约之下,人冥币崩盘必然会发生。

原文:

China Hit By $9 Billion In FX Outflows In June

6月份中共国外汇流出达90亿美元

With the US dollar now officially primed and weaponized amid growing speculation that the Trump administration is contemplating busting the Hong Kong-US Dollar peg as a means of destabilizing China's financial system as the Cold War between the US and China rolls out in earnest, attention is (or should be) again shifting to China's capital outflows (especially with Chinese banks suddenly hit by an unprecedented surge in bank runs).

正当美元现在正式被武器化,有越来越多的猜测川普政府正在考虑打破港币和美元挂钩。随着美国和中共国之间的冷战正式展开,这是作为破坏中共国金融体系稳定的一种手段。注意力要(或应该)再次转向中共国资本的外流(尤其是中共国银行突然遭受前所未有的挤兑激增)。

Addressing this issue, Goldman writes overnight that according to the bank's preffered gauge of FX flows, there was an outflow of around US$9bn in June (vs. US$19bn inflows in May), and the most since the March crisis, with seasonal investment income payout contributing to the outflows in June, while net foreign buying of Chinese equities and bonds remained strong. Still, as the chart below clearly shows, the June outflow was tiny in comparison to the massive capital flight observed in late 2015 and 2016, following China's surprise yuan devaluation.

对这问题的解读,高盛连夜写道,根据银行估计的外汇流动, 季节性投资收益支出导致6月流出约90亿美元(相应5月190亿美元流入),这是自3月份危机以来最大的流出。与此同时,外国对中共国股票和债券的净购买量保持强劲。不过,正如下图清楚显示的那样,与2015年末和2016年人民币意外贬值后出现的大规模资本外逃相比,6月份的资本外流规模很小。

图1:我们青睐的指标显示6月份净流出90亿美元 来源:中共国外汇管理局,高盛全球投资研究

Overall net FX outflows composed of US$12bn in net outflows via outright spot transactions, US$8bn in net inflow via forward transactions, and US$5bn outflows in cross-border RMB net payments from onshore to offshore.

外汇净流出总额包括120亿美元的直接现货交易净流出,80亿美元的远期交易净流入,以及50亿美元的从境内支付到境外的人民币跨境支付净流出。

Some more details from Goldman on this latest net outflow, which according to the bank's calculations based on the SAFE dataset of "onshore FX settlement", non-banks showed net FX outflows of around US$4bn in June (vs. US$18bn inflows in May). This is composed of US$12bn in net outflows via outright spot transactions, and US$8bn in net inflow via freshly entered and canceled forward transactions. Another SAFE dataset on "cross-border RMB flows" shows that on a net basis, domestic banks saw net RMB payments of US$5bn from onshore to offshore. In summary, Goldman's preferred FX flow measure therefore suggest in total US$9bn outflows in June, in comparison with the US$19bn inflows in May.

基于对中共国外汇管理局“在岸外汇结算”数据的计算,高盛公布了最新资金净流出的更多细节,非银行机构6月份外汇净流出约40亿美元(5月份为180亿美元流入)。其中包括120亿美元的直接现货交易净流出,80亿美元的新进入和取消的远期交易净流入。外管局另一份有关“跨境人民币流动”的数据显示,按净值计算,国内银行从境内向境外支付的人民币净额为50亿美元。总而言之,高盛青睐的外汇流动指标显示,6月份外汇流出总额为90亿美元,而5月份的流入为190亿美元。

Investment income payout contributed to the outflows in June. Cross-border net payments under "current account - income and transfers" rose to US$21bn in June, vs US$14bn in May (a majority of them are likely denominated in RMB) and net FX sales for "current account - income and transfers" went up to US$8bn, from US$3bn in May. Investment income payout tends to be seasonal with June being the peak season of payouts - on average in the past three years, investment income payout tends to drive US$14bn more outflows in June in comparison with May. A smaller goods trade surplus and thus smaller net FX inflows through the goods trade channel also contributed to the overall net outflows in June.

投资收益支出是6月份资金流出的原因之一。6月,“经常账户——收入和转移”的跨境净支付增至210亿美元,而5月份为140亿美元(其中大部分可能以人民币计价),“经常账户——收入和转移”的净外汇销售从5月份的30亿美元增至80亿美元。投资收益支出往往具有季节性,6月份是支出的高峰期——在过去3年里,投资收益支出通常会导致6月份流出的资金比5月份多140亿美元。商品贸易顺差的减少以及通过商品贸易渠道的净外汇流入的减少,也是6月份整体净流出的原因之一。

Foreign buying of Chinese bonds and equities continued to be strong - bond foreign inflows were US$11bn in June, vs US$16bn in May, and net northbound buying through the Stock Connect program was around US$4bn in June, vs US$1bn in May.

外国对中共国债券和股票的购买持续强劲——6月债券的外资流入为110亿美元,5月为160亿美元,6月通过“沪港通”北向资金净购买额约为40亿美元,5月为10亿美元。

SAFE data on cross-border trade receipts suggest the goods trade repatriation ratio (net foreign receipts under goods trade channel as a share of goods trade surplus) was at 37% in Q2, higher than the 30% in Q1, likely on the back of improved sentiment towards the currency later in the quarter - the CNY appreciated against USD by around 1% in June.

外管局的跨境贸易收入数据表明货物贸易回流比(商品贸易渠道下的净外汇收入占商品贸易顺差的比例)在第二季度达到37%,高于第一季度的30%,这可能是由于本季度末期对人民币的信心有所改善——6月人民币对美元升值了约1%。

Official FX reserves (released earlier in the month) stood at US$3,112bn in June, US$11bn higher than May. Based on our estimate, FX valuation effects accounted for most of the increase. After adjusting for the FX valuation effect, FX reserves increased by US$1bn in June.

6月份官方外汇储备(于本月早期公布)为31120亿美元,比5月份高出110亿美元。根据我们的估计,外汇估值的影响是外汇储备增长的主要原因。调整外汇估值效应后,6月份外汇储备增加了10亿美元。

编辑:【喜马拉雅战鹰团】Edited by:【Himalaya Hawk Squad】