Always a hard category to predict, the stronger contenders are The Favourite, Green Book, and A Star is Born. I’m placing my bets on Green Book -- The Favourite will probably win for Best Director, and since Bradley Cooper was passed over for Best Director, I don’t have much faith in A Star is Born to win (also, I hate it). Black Panther and Vice are throwaway nominations that should’ve gone to Eighth Grade and If Beale Street Could Talk.
My pick: Green Book
Yorgos Lanthimos has been nominated for an Oscar before - best Foreign Language Film - for Dogtooth in 2009 in and it’s about time that he finally won. With The Favourite’s 10 nominations, it’s fairly likely he’ll win. An less likely possibility but a possibility nonetheless is Alfonso Cuaron for Roma.
My pick: Yorgos Lanthimos for The Favourite
Best Animated Feature
Spider-man: Into The Spiderverse and Isle of Dogs are the two strongest contenders for Best Animated Feature. Spiderverse won at the Golden Globes, but the Oscars are more elitist than the Globes, so the ever-pretentious Wes Anderson (Isle of Dogs) may take home the Oscar for this category.
My pick: Isle of Dogs
Best Lead Actress
Olivia Colman (The Favourite) is a strong contender for Best Actress, and personally I would love to see an actress win for playing a disabled mentally unstable rabbit-loving lesbian, but I think that it’ll go to either Glenn Close (who won the Golden Globe for Best Actress in The Wife) or Yalitza Aparicio (less likely, but still a possibility) for Roma.
My pick: Glenn Close in The Wife
Best Lead Actor
Bradley Cooper (A Star is Born) is a shoo-in. No contest. Since he was passed over for Best Director, he has a lot of potential to win for Best Actor. Another possibility is Rami Malek, but I really hope not (I took back any praise for Bohemian Rhapsody after rewatching it and realizing how bad the acting and editing is).
My pick: Bradley Cooper in A Star is Born