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病毒肆虐,中國人會不會吃不上飯? 【中英對照翻譯】

來源:ZeroHedge, February 9, 2020

作者:Tyler Durden

翻譯/評論:城堡

【譯者按】最早郭先生,路德,爆料革命戰友向周圍的人提到屯糧,我們曾被歲月靜好的小粉紅認為是瘋子。後來豬肉價格暴漲,部分被洗腦的牆內民眾依然覺得「我可以少吃,或者不吃豬肉吃別的肉」。在武漢疫情中我們看到,50元一顆大白菜,96元一小捆蒜苔的真實案例,就出現在我們身邊。

未來隨著2019年主要糧食產區面臨災害糧食減產成為必然,非洲蝗災即將蔓延到中國,外匯枯竭,共產黨與全世界脫鈎導致糧食進口減少,為刺激經濟貨幣放水導致的大規模通貨膨脹,時隔數十年之後中國人將重新體會到挨餓的滋味,已經不是天方夜譚。

僅2016年農業部公開承認需要進口才能滿足的糧食缺口,就達1.5億噸,佔當年糧食總消耗量20%。而根據郭先生爆料,實際缺口遠在2億噸以上。而近些年由於化肥價格一路飆升,農民種糧利潤極低甚至還要虧本。對此時的地方政府而言,與其將土地劃歸農用,遠不及蓋成商品房賣給農民來錢快。 即使在貪污掉一大部分之後,還能剩下不少資金用於在國際市場上購買糧食填補糧庫虧空。 但問題是,一旦房地產泡沫破裂,外匯存底見空,共產黨無力維持外匯牌價,人民幣匯率一瀉千里之後會發生什麼?

蘇聯解體時我們曾看到過類似的一幕,當時蘇聯尚且可以用品質有保證的軍工產品換麵包。而當這個盤踞在中國的共產極權政府風雨飄搖時,國際上又有誰會願意接手一灘外國鄉下的鋼筋水泥爛尾樓呢?

你可以不關心政治,但政治一直在關心你

China Suddenly Has Another Major "Virus" Problem, As Soaring Food Prices Put A Lid On Central Bank Intervention

中共國突然間發現另一大「病毒級」的問題,飛漲的糧價掣肘央行的干預

Soon the only food that will be affordable in China, is coronabat stew.

很快,中共國內人們唯一吃得起的食物就是冠狀病毒燉蝙蝠。

(注:譯者不認同原作者對吃蝙蝠一事的調侃,但翻譯中保留原文表述。但假如食品價格上漲情況再無好轉,只吃得起蝙蝠就可能就並非調侃了。)

With over 400 million people across dozens of Chinese cities living in lock down as a result of the Coronavirus pandemic, crippling global supply chains and grinding China's economy to a halt, it is easy to forget that China has been battling another major viral epidemic for the past two years: namely the African Swing Fever virus, aka "pig ebola" which killed off over half of China's pig population in the past year, sending pork prices soaring, and unleashing a tidal wave of inflation.

由於冠狀病毒瘟疫肆虐,中共國數十個城市的4億多人處於封閉狀態,全球供應鏈斷裂,中共國經濟停滯不前,這些很容易使人忘記,中共國在過去兩年一直在與另一種主要的病毒性流行病鬥爭:即非洲豬瘟,又稱「豬埃博拉病毒」, 該病毒在過去一年中殺死了中共國一半以上的豬,使豬肉價格飛漲,並引發了通貨膨脹的浪潮。

African Swing Fever Virus 非洲豬瘟

Well, moments ago, the world got a stark reminder of this when China reported that in January, its CPI jumped by whopping 5.4% Y/Y, the highest print in nine years...

好吧,就在沒多久之前,全世界發現一個觸目驚心的事實:中共國報道其一月份CPI同比暴漲5.4%,創下了九年來的最高記錄…

中共國CPI對比PPI。CPI為消費者物價指數,PPI為生產價格指數。

... driven by a surge in pork prices, which reversed a rare drop in December when the slid by 5.6%, rising 8.5% in just ont month, and a record 116% compared to a year ago.

…CPI上漲由豬肉價格上漲所推動,豬肉價格在12月出人意料地反轉下跌5.6%,上個月上漲了8.5%,與去年同時期相比總體上漲創紀錄的116%。

中共國豬肉消費者物價指數

This unprecedented surge in pork CPI meant that China's food CPI rose a record 20.6% in January, also the highest on record, as China's population, now ordered to live under self-imposed quarantine, suddenly finds it can no longer afford to buy food .

豬肉物價指數如此前所未有的飆升,意味著中共國食品物價指數在一月暴漲20.6%,也是有記錄以來的最高水平,而現在被要求在自我隔離之下生活的中共國民眾,突然發現自己已經買不起食物。

中共國食品物價指數同比上漲

Needless to say, this is suddenly a major problem for China, whose central bank has in the past two weeks unleashed an unprecedented liquidity tsunami, including the biggest ever reverse repo injection...

無需多言,這突然間就成為中共國的一大問題,其央行在過去兩周釋放了前所未有的流動性海嘯,包括有史以來最大規模的逆回購資金注入…

中共國人民銀行連續四周注入/撤回流動性(在岸人民幣/萬億)

... in hopes of stabilizing the stock market. Well, oops, because some of this liquidity now appears to be making its way into the broader economy, and is making already scarce food (aside from bat stew of course) even more unaffordable, and the already depressed and dejected Chinese population even more hungry, and angry.

…寄希望借此穩住股市。好吧,但是,誒呀,由於部分這些流動性已經流通到了更廣泛的經濟循環中,且使得已經緊俏的的食物(當然不包括冠狀病毒燉蝙蝠)變得更加昂貴,已經非常低落且沮喪的中共國民眾愈發地飢餓且憤怒。

There was one silver lining in today's data: after spending half a year in deflation, China's Production Prices, a proxy for industrial profits and overall price leverage, finally printed in the positive, rising 0.1% Y/Y, and better than the expected 0.0%

而今天的數據中有一線希望:中共國的生產價格,工業利潤與整體的價格槓桿的代表,在半年的緊縮之後終於呈現成了正數,同比增長0.1%,好於預期的0.0%。

中共國生產價格指數對比工業利潤

So far so good, however, with China's economy now on indefinite lock down, expect the correlation shown in the chart above to break any moment now, with industrial profits crashing as a result of the coronavirus putting countless Chinese factories on lock down at least until the coronavirus is contained. When that happens is anyone's guess, but one thing is certain: at the rate food prices are exploding, soon the only food China's population will be able to afford will be the experimental bats used by the Wuhan Institute of Virology, one of which may or may not have been accidentally sold to the local fish market last December triggering what is now the worst viral pandemic in decades.

就目前來看狀況還好,但是,由於中共國的經濟被無限期封鎖,預計以上圖表所述相關係數,隨時都可能因冠狀病毒導致無數中共國工廠在病毒被控制前的停工,導致的工業利潤暴跌而崩潰。所有人預想的這種情況無論何時發生,有一點可以肯定:食品價格正在暴漲,很快中共國民眾就只能吃得起武漢病毒研究所的實驗用蝙蝠了, 不管是不是去年12月份意外出售給當地海鮮市場,並導致了數十年來最嚴重的病毒瘟疫的那種。

Just as concerning, if only for Beijing, is that if the surge in food prices isn't "contained" very soon the arms of the PBOC will be tied and any hopes that China will reflate its economy - and the world - to offset the economic crunch resulting from the coronavirus, will be weaponized and vaporize right through the HVAC, just like any number of manmade viruses currently being developed in Wuhan, as pretty soon China's population - starving and quarantined - will have no choice but take matters into its own hands.

就如同所擔憂的,對北京而言如果食品價格的上漲在短期內得不到及時的「遏制」,中共國人民銀行就會被束縛住手腳,且任何中共國 – 乃至全世界 – 可以抵消冠狀病毒帶來的重創,並重振經濟的希望,將會被中央空調(傳播的病毒)粉碎,並變成一把利器。就像武漢實驗室目前正在研發的所有人造病毒一樣,很快,挨餓且被隔離的中共國民眾將會毫無選擇,只能將命運掌握在自己手上。

編輯:【喜馬拉雅戰鷹團】