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朝鲜走投无路拆除开城联络处 【中英对照翻译】

新闻来源:The National Interest

作者:Daniel L. Davis

翻译/简评:小王不换肩

校对:海阔天空

Page: 椰子哦耶

简评:

庆父不死,鲁难未已。朝鲜政权与中共政权一路货色,色厉内荏,擅长制造矛盾、转移时间;擅长挑动民族主义,以凝聚人心,掩饰其国内治理的失败和无能。这样一个从内到外散发着腐朽恶臭的政权,如果没有中共支持,朝鲜一天也活不下去。从三方会谈到六方会谈,从金正恩诈死到拆除开城联络处,作为中共的重要棋子,朝鲜总是会在关键时刻扮演小丑的角色来转移全世界的注意力。但是这拙劣的手法已然被越来越多的人看穿,中共的丑恶嘴脸也正在被全世界人民看清。要想真正实现朝鲜半岛无核化,只有通过灭共!

原文:

North Korea's Demolition of the Kaesong Liaison Office Is a Sign of Desperation

朝鲜走投无路 拆除开城联络处

On Tuesday, North Korea blew up an inter-Korean liaison building on its own territory to emphasize how serious they were about severing communications with Seoul. The South Korean Defense Minister vowed that if Pyongyang took any military action against the South, his forces were prepared to “strongly respond.” North Korea’s actions, however, aren’t the moves of an aggressor, but expose the reality of their fear and weakness.

本周二,朝鲜炸毁了自己领土上的朝韩联络楼,以强调他们对切断与首尔交流的严肃态度。韩国国防部长誓言,如果平壤对韩国采取任何军事行动,他的部队准备“强烈回应”。然而,朝鲜此举并不是侵略,而是暴露了他们恐惧和软弱的现实。

Washington should neither cower in fear nor engage in any talk of a “military option” in response to the North’s rhetoric–because our overwhelming conventional and nuclear superiority over Pyongyang keeps them deterred from launching unprovoked attacks.

华盛顿既不应该感到恐惧,也不应参与任何针对朝鲜言论的“军事选择”的讨论,因为我们对平壤的压倒性的常规和核优势使他们无法发动无端攻击。

North Korea has made a number of provocative threats since the beginning of June, recently severing all contact with South Korea. The reason should be clear: the sanctions continue to exert pain on North Korea and they are increasingly desperate for economic relief. South Korean President Moon Jae In, however, is aware of the overwhelming military advantage Seoul and Washington have over Kim—Moon maintains a robust readiness to deter any offensive action from the North.

自6月初以来,朝鲜已发出一系列挑衅性威胁,最近又切断了与韩国的所有接触。原因应该很清楚:制裁措施持续给朝鲜带来痛苦,并且它们越来越迫切地寻求经济救助。然而,韩国总统文在寅知道首尔和华盛顿对金正恩压倒性的军事优势足以阻止任何来自朝鲜的进攻行动。

No one is more acutely aware of this fact than Kim, and he would never risk starting a war with the ROK-U.S. alliance he knows he could never survive. But that won’t keep some pundits in Washington from raising the alarm over North Korea. It’s been America’s default policy for decades.

没有人比金正恩更敏锐地意识到这一事实,他永远也不会冒险与韩美同盟开战,他深知开战意味着自杀。但这并不能阻止华盛顿的一些专家对朝鲜发出警报。几十年来,这一直是美国的默认政策。

In Senate testimony in July 2004, James Kelly, the Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs, said the Clinton Administration’s “Agreed Framework” deal with North Korea had failed to stop Pyongyang from beginning a nuclear weapons program. The objective of Bush’s policy, Kelly firmly stated, was to obtain, “the complete, verifiable and irreversible dismantlement of the DPRK’s nuclear programs–nothing less.”

在2004年7月的参议院证词中,负责东亚和太平洋事务的助理国务卿詹姆斯·凯利(James Kelly)表示,克林顿政府与朝鲜达成的“协议框架”未能阻止平壤开始核武器计划。凯利坚定地指出,布什政策的目标是“彻底,可核查和不可逆转地拆除朝鲜的核计划,仅此而已”。

Bush’s policy failed, as North Korea tested its first nuclear weapon just two years later. In September 2016–after North Korea conducted its fifth nuclear weapons test–claimed, “The United States does not, and never will, accept North Korea as a nuclear state.” Obama’s statement predictably did not constrain Pyongyang’s behavior, as they tested their sixth and largest nuclear test just one year later.

布什的政策最终失败了,因为仅仅两年后朝鲜就对其第一枚核武器进行了测试。在朝鲜进行第五次核武器试验后,2016年9月美国宣称:“美国不会也永远不会接受朝鲜为核国家。”可以预见,奥巴马的声明不会限制平壤的行为,因为他们仅在一年后就进行了第六次也是最大的核试验。

In his first speech before the United Nations in 2017, Trump put just as much pressure on North Korea as Clinton, Bush, and Obama when he declared, “denuclearization is the only acceptable future” for North Korea, warning that if “forced” to, Trump would “totally destroy North Korea.” Three years after that warning, Washington is still are pursuing the same objective: the complete denuclearization of North Korea.

在2017年联合国首次演讲中,川普与克林顿,小布什和奥巴马一样,对朝鲜施加了同等的压力,他宣称,对朝鲜来讲,“无核化是唯一可以接受的未来”,并且警告说,如果“万不得已” ,川普将“彻底摧毁朝鲜”。该警告发出三年后,华盛顿仍在追求相同的目标:朝鲜完全无核化。

Trump has taken a lot of heat for his two personal summits with Kim Jong Un in Singapore and Hanoi and their mini-summit at the DMZ last summer. Trump’s overtures haven’t resulted in an improvement in U.S./North Korean relations because, like Bush and Obama before him, Trump still seeks the complete denuclearization of North Korea upfront. That policy will never be realized for one overriding reason: Pyongyang is concerned with regime survival and sees its nuclear arsenal as the single best guarantor of that outcome.

川普投入了巨大的热情来参加和金正恩在新加坡和河内举行的两次个人峰会以及他们去年夏天在非军事区的小型峰会。川普的主动姿态并未导致美国和朝鲜关系得到改善,因为和之前的布什和奥巴马一样,川普仍在谋求朝鲜完全无核化。这项政策永远不会实现,因为有一个压倒性的原因:平壤关注政权的生存,并将其核武库视为保护政权的唯一最佳保障。

America’s overriding objective, therefore, is to recognize that reality and avoid an unnecessary war, either now or in the future. We most effectively accomplish that goal by anchoring our policies on the equally certain fact of our nuclear and conventional military superiority over North Korea, knowing we can deter them indefinitely. Then we should work with Kim, over time, via a step-by-step process, and in close coordination with President Moon, to deescalate tensions.

因此,美国的首要目标是认识到这一现实,并且避免现在或将来发生不必要的战争。我们实现这一目标最有效的方法是,将我们的政策锚定在我们对朝鲜的核武和常规军事的优势上,知道我们可以无限期地阻止它们。然后,随着时间的推移,我们应该通过一步一步的进程,与金正恩密切合作,以缓解紧张局势。

By working progressively towards the establishment of peace, normalizing relations with North Korea, and fostering the development of inter-Korean economic ties, we can progressively lessen the risk of war. Eventual denuclearization of the Korean peninsula can remain a goal, but with the recognition it will be a long-term aspiration.

通过逐步致力于建立和平,与朝鲜关系正常化并促进朝韩经济联系的发展,我们可以逐步减少战争的危险。朝鲜半岛最终实现无核化仍然是一个目标,但必须承认这将是一个长期愿望。

The only way we lose is if we choose the foolish path of a badly misnamed “preventive war.” Banking on the reality that our existing military and nuclear forces will keep Kim deterred indefinitely, we can afford to take however much time is necessary to achieve peace.

我们失败的唯一途径就是选择一条被错误命名为“预防战争”的愚蠢道路。基于我们现有的军事和核力量将无限期阻止金正恩的现实,我们有能力花费很多时间来实现和平。

Daniel L. Davis is a Senior Fellow for Defense Priorities and a former Lt. Col. in the U.S. Army who retired in 2015 after 21 years, including four combat deployments. Follow him @DanielLDavis1.

丹尼尔·戴维斯(Daniel L. Davis)是国防优先事务高级研究员,曾是美国陆军中校。在21年的服役后,他在2015年退休,其中包括四次战斗部署。关注他@ DanielLDavis1。

编辑:【喜马拉雅战鹰团】