Throughout this presentation I will inform you about the current first nations, immigration and demography trends and I will also cover what I think Canada will look like in the year 2050. By the end of this adobe spark I hope you will have an idea to what Canada will look like in the year 2050.
Ever since Canada became independent on July 1, 1867, individuals from all around the world have been coming to live in Canada. This is why Canada is known as a multicultural country and I believe that it will continue to grow as one.
Currently 67% of Canada’s population are immigrants which is about two thirds of Canada's population growth. Also. Canada currently has one of the highest per capita rates of immigration in the world since Canada is a very popular destination for immigrants. By the year 2011 Canada had 6,775,800 immigrants which represented 20.6% of the total population this included more than 200 ethnic origins which were reported in the 2011 National Household Survey. Over the past five years most of Canada’s immigrants have come from Asia however the amount of immigrants coming from Africa, central and South America are slightly starting to increase. Currently one out of five people in Canada is most likely born in a foreign country.
Canada's Population in 2011
In the year 2050
Within the next 33 years Canada's immigration rate is expected to greatly increase. This is because of the expected decline in the birth rate and an increase in the death rate. Canada’s natural increase rate is likely to decrease because of the following trends, in 19950 the net migration rate was 7.02 per 1000 people, in 1995 it was 6.59, in 2000, it was 4.27, in 2005 it was 3.35, in 2010 it was 3.86 and in 2015 the natural increase rate was 3.63. Based on these trends I think that the Canada’s natural increase rate will continue to decline due to many factors. Part of this is because many women are starting to getting married at a lager age and they are also having children at a later age. This will cause the population to grow very slowly and then Canada will need to rely on immigrants to increase their population. Canada will mainly be looking for highly skilled young individuals to replace the baby boomers. The immigrants will choose to come and settle in Canada because we currently have many pull factors and we will probably have even more by 2050. The immigrants might come to Canada because of how multicultural we are and the free health care alone will all with all of the benefits you get from jobs. For example, in the Unites States annual premiums had reached $18,142 in the year 2016 for an average family. For most immigrants this would be a push factory as 18 thousand dollars is a lot of money especially if you're trying to come and settle in a new country. The immigrants that will come to Canada will most likely settle in less populated areas since metropolitan cities such as Toronto or Vancouver are already over congested and trying to get in and out of Toronto is already hard enough just imagine how it would be as the population increases. When the population for these major cities increases the crime rate will also increase and the amount of jobs available in these metropolitan areas will be low. These are just some reasons why immigrants will be more likely to settle in less populated areas
Currently Canada is doing very well as a country, the birth and death rate are quite low and the fertility rate is also decreasing. In 2005 Canada’s population was 32.5 million, in 2010 it was 35.9 million and now in 2016 the population is around 36.2 million. Overall Canada’s population is increasing very slowly due to the birth and death rates and Canada’s current population growth percentage is around 0.96%. For example, in 2009 there were 380,863 births which decreased to 377,636 in 2011. On the other hand, in 2009 there were 238,418 deaths and in 2011 there were 242,074 deaths. The birth rates are slow since women are now getting marries at later ages and are focusing more on careers than having kids. The current fertility rate is around 1.6 which is quite low and the death rate is also since because of higher life expectancy rates for both men and women. Overall Canada's natural increase rate between the years 2006 and 2011 census was 5.9% and the increase was even greater when compared to the previous 5-year census which had an increase of 5.4%. This has caused a very slow natural increase rate which is causing Canada to mainly rely on immigrants to increase its population.
Canada's Fertility Rate From 1926 - 2011
Canada's Population From 1950 - 2016
In the year 2050
Between the years 1951-2001 Canada's population has nearly doubled and if the population continues to grow at these rates Canada's population in the year 2050 will be very high. However, this type of growth rate is very unlikely since the current birth rate is 1.61 children per women. As the years go by the birth rate is probably decrease because of the better health care, an improved status for women along with later marriages. Adding on to this woman are also predicted to be more focused on their career than having children because of education and job rates increasing for woman there isn't enough time to take care of many children. Aside from the both rate decreasing the death rate is also decreasing, this is due to the increase in life expectancy for Canadians because of better health care are more benefits. However, with the large amount of baby boomers that fall into the dependency load are increasing the death rate and this is expected to continue up until 2050.Currently the average life expectancy for females is 84 and it is 80 for males and by the year 2050 this could also increase as technology is always improving. Overall by the year 2050 Canada will have a very low birth and death rate resulting in a low natural increase rate and Canada will have to mainly rely on immigrants.
Population Pyramid for Canada-2011
In the year 2011, 1,409,100 people identified as First Nations which represented 60.8% of the total aboriginal population and 2.6% of the total Canadian population. In 2011 Canada was home to 859,970 First Nations, 451,795 Métis, and 59,445 Inuits. Aboriginal people accounted for 3.8% of the population in the 2006 census, 3.3% in the 2001 census and 2.8% in the 1996 census also, the population between 2006 to 2011 has increased by 232,385 which is a 20.1% increase. Moreover, the percentage of persons that are 15 years of age and over without high school diplomas has decreased significantly from 1990 when it was 37.8% to 19.1% in 2012. Out of the 1,409,100 people 22% lived in Ontario, 58% lived in the four western provinces, 10% lived in Quebec, 7% lived in the Atlantic provinces and 4% lived in the three territories.
In the year 2050
I think that in the year 2050 the first nations population is estimated to represent around 7% of the total Canadian population. in 2012 72% were high school graduates and if this trend continues It is expected that most of the First Nations that are living in Canada will have a high school diploma. Also, if the first nations receive a stronger education they will be able to get jobs and they wont have to face poverty. Moreover, as the first nations move into bigger cities and go to school I feel as they will start to loose their culture and heritage as in 2050 they probably wont teach people about the first nations culture and heritage in schools.
To conclude, I hope you have enjoyed this adobe spark presentation and now you hopefully have an idea to what Canada will look like in the year 2050 immigration, first nations and demographically wise and yes Canada will be a bit older but Canada will be the same if not better.
Legislatures, N. C. (n.d.). Health Insurance: Premiums and Increases. Retrieved December 23, 2016, from http://www.ncsl.org/research/health/health-insurance-premiums.aspx
Canada Population (LIVE). (n.d.). Retrieved December 22, 2016, from http://www.worldometers.info/world-population/canada-population/
Figure 3 Observed (1921 to 2008) and projected (2009 to 2061) number of births and deaths in Canada. (2015). Retrieved December 23, 2016, from https://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-recensement/2011/as-sa/98-310-x/2011003/fig/fig3_1-3-eng.cfm
Trovato, F., & Aylsworth, L. (n.d.). Demography of Indigenous People. Retrieved December 21, 2016, from http://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.ca/en/article/aboriginal-people-demography/
Rethinking immigration: The case for the 400,000 solution. (2013). Retrieved December 22, 2016, from http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/time-to-lead/rethinking-immigration-the-case-for-the-400000-solution/article242132
Aboriginal Peoples: Fact Sheet for Canada. (2015). Retrieved December 23, 2016, from http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/89-656-x/89-656-x2015001-eng.htm
Some of the D2L links regarding Immigration, Population and First Nations