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冠状病毒危机加剧了现金战争(一) 【中英对照翻译】

新闻来源:zerohedge《零对冲》;作者:Claudio Grass

翻译/简评:海阔天空;校对:johnwallis;Page:拱卒

简评:

中共作为人类社会里的一颗毒瘤,要统治一切、控制一切。中共不仅仅想要控制本国人民,更妄想控制世界人民,获得世界主导权。中共处心积虑的数字货币计划就是其监控本国人民、挑战美元的疯狂而且邪恶的计划。CCP在监控国民方面一贯臭名昭著,如今其推出的数字货币更想控制民众的钱包,控制每一分钱的流出与流入。CCP所推出的数字货币并非去中心化的,其所有交易都要通过一个非常集中的系统来控制。虽然CCP冠状病毒客观上催生了非接触交易或者数字货币的需求,但全球一定要警惕类似中共这样的旨在加强控制人们的数字货币系统,同时也要考虑到没有技术能力使用数字货币的少数人的基本交易需求。

原文:

The COVID Crisis Supercharged The War On Cash, Part 1

冠状病毒危机加剧了现金战争(一)

The corona crisis has already taken a very high toll and caused deep damage in our societies and our economies, the extent of which is yet to become apparent. We have seen its impact on productivity, on unemployment, on social cohesion and on political division. However, there is another very worrying trend that has been accelerated under the veil of fear and confusion that the pandemic has spread. The war on cash, that was already underway for almost a decade, has been drastically intensified over the last few months.

冠状病毒危机已经造成了很高的损失,并对我们的社会和经济造成了严重破坏,虽然冠状病毒的破坏程度有多深尚不清楚。但我们已经看到了它对生产力、失业、社会凝聚力和政治分裂的影响。然而,在大流行病蔓延的恐惧和混乱的面纱下,还有另一个非常令人担忧的趋势正在加速。这场已经进行了近十年的有关现金的战争,在过去几个月里已经急剧加剧。

The “problem”

所谓问题

Over the last years, and as the war on cash escalated, we’ve gotten used to hear certain arguments or “reasons” on why we should all abandon paper money and move en masse to an exclusively digital economy. These talking points have been repeated over and over, in most western economies and by countless institutional figures. “Cash is used by terrorists, money launderers and criminals” is arguably the most oft-repeated one, as it’s been widely employed in most debates about the digital transition. Just a couple of years ago, it was also used by Mario Draghi, to support the decision to scrap the 500 euro note. We didn’t get any specific information or data about how many terrorists were actually using this high-denomination note, but we do know a lot of law-abiding citizens were using it to save, as did small business owners for their operational liquidity needs.

在过去的几年里,随着现金战争不断升级,我们已经习惯了听到一些关于我们为什么应该抛弃纸币而大规模转向数字经济的争论或“理由”。在大多数西方经济体中,这些话题被无数机构人士反复提及。“现金被恐怖分子、洗钱者和罪犯使用”可以说是最常被重复的一个,因为它在大多数关于数字化转型的辩论中被广泛使用。就在几年前,马里奥·德拉吉(Mario Draghi)也曾用它来支持废除500欧元纸币的决定。关于究竟有多少恐怖分子在使用这种大面额纸币,我们没有得到任何具体的信息或数据,但我们知道,许多守法的公民用它来储蓄,小企业主也用它来满足他们的流动资金运作需求。

Now, however, the corona crisis has introduced a whole new direction of anti-cash rhetoric and fresh arguments in favor of a digital economy. Even in the early stages of the pandemic, when essentially nothing was concretely known about the virus itself or its transmission, the seeds of new fears were already planted by sensational media reports and fear-mongering political and institutional figures. The insidious idea that “you can catch Covid through cash” might have been prematurely spread, but it did stick in most people’s minds. This is, of course, understandable, given the extremely high levels of uncertainty and anxiety in the general public. Wanting to eliminate potential threats was a natural instinct and so was the urge to take back at least some control over our lives, after they’d been suddenly thrown into utter chaos in the wake of the global economic freeze.

但现在,冠状病毒危机带来了反对现金的言论和支持数字经济的新论点。即使在大流行的早期阶段,当人们基本上对病毒本身或它的传播没有什么具体的了解时,新的恐惧的种子已经被耸人听闻的媒体报道和散布恐惧的政治和机构的人物埋下。“你可能通过现金感染病毒”,这种阴险的想法可能已经过早地传播开来,但它确实牢牢地印在了大多数人的脑海中。这当然是可以理解的,因为公众的不确定性和焦虑程度非常高。想要消除潜在威胁是一种本能,在全球经济冻结导致我们的生活突然陷入彻底混乱之后,想要至少夺回一些对我们生活的控制权也是一种本能。

Another factor that concretely helped the shift away from physical cash was an entirely practical one. Given the lockdown measures and the new “social distancing” directives that were enforced all over the world, it became difficult to use cash, even if you really wanted to, or had no other means of transaction, as is the case for billions of people. With physical stores being forced to shut down and with more and more online shops offering contactless delivery (either as a choice or as a service requirement), the need for cash very quickly gave way to digital payments.

另一个具体帮助人们远离实物现金的因素是一个完全实际的因素。即使你真的想要,或者没有其他交易手段,考虑到封锁措施和在世界各地实施的新的“社交距离”指令,使用现金变得非常困难,数十亿人都是如此。随着实体商店被迫关闭,以及越来越多的在线商店提供非接触式递送(作为一种选择或一种服务要求),对现金的需求很快就让位于数字支付。

For most of us, who have access to online banking, cards or other digital payment services, this introduced no real inconvenience and we probably didn’t even give it a second thought. However, for many of our fellow citizens it was a serious impediment, which in some cases blocked their access to basic goods and essential supplies. Contrary to the glowing promises of the digital economy, of financial inclusion and convenience, the fact remains that there are still millions of people who simply do not have access to this brave new world. According to figures by the World Bank, globally there are 2.5 billion people with no bank account, with a high concentration in the developing world. In the West too, however, there is a very large part of the population that is unbanked and/or has no access to digital solutions, while the elderly are also to a very large extent “locked out” of the digital economy. For all these millions of people, cash is the only way to save, to transact and to cover their basic needs.

对于我们大多数可以使用网上银行、信用卡或其他数字支付服务的人来说,这并没有带来真正的不便,我们可能根本就没有多想。然而,对我们的许多同胞公民来说,这是一种严重的障碍,在某些情况下阻碍了他们获得基本物品和必需品。与数字经济、金融包容性和便捷性的美好承诺相反,事实是,仍有数百万人无法进入这个美丽的新世界。根据世界银行的数据,全球有25亿人没有银行账户,集中在发展中国家。然而,在西方也有很大一部分人口没有银行账户和/或无法获得数字解决方案,而老年人在很大程度上也被数字经济“拒之门外”。对数百万人来说,现金是储蓄、交易和满足基本需求的唯一途径。

The “solution”

“解决方案”

With cash being presented not just as a danger to society and to national security, but also as a direct health hazard due to the coronavirus, the push towards digital alternatives has been massively reinforced over the last few months. Both international organizations and individual governments have actively participated and encouraged this push, some through public guidance statements and others through the blunt enforcement of direct rules and measures that leave no real room for their citizens to make their own choices.

由于现金不仅被认为是对社会和国家安全的一种威胁,而且由于冠状病毒,它还被认为是一种直接的健康危害,在过去几个月里,对数字化替代品的推动得到了大力加强。国际组织和各国政府都积极参与和鼓励这一努力,一些通过公开指导声明,另一些通过生硬地执行直接的规则和措施,使其公民没有真正的余地作出自己的选择。

The CDC in its official guidance to retail workers recommended that they “encourage customers to use touchless payment options”, while a report by the World Bank highlighted the need to adopt cashless payments for the sake of “social protection”. The UAE Central Bank encouraged the use of online banking and digital payments “as a measure to protect the health and safety of UAE residents”, and the Bank of England has acknowledged that banknotes can hold “bacteria and viruses” and recommended that people wash their hands after handling money. In March, a report from Reuters revealed that the U.S. Federal Reserve was quarantining dollars that it repatriated from Asia and so did South Korea’s central bank, while banks in China were forced by the government to disinfect bills and keep them in a safe for up to 14 days, before putting them in circulation.

美国疾病控制与预防中心(CDC)在其对零售员工的官方指导意见中建议,他们“鼓励客户使用非接触式支付方式”,而世界银行的一份报告强调,为了“社会保障”,有必要采用无现金支付方式。阿联酋央行(The UAE Central Bank)鼓励使用网上银行和数字支付,“以保护阿联酋居民的健康和安全”。英国央行(Bank of England)也承认纸币可能携带“细菌和病毒”,并建议人们在接触货币后洗手。今年3月,来自路透社的一份报告显示, 美联储(U.S. Federal Reserve)正在隔离从亚洲汇回的美元,韩国央行也是如此,中共国政府要求位于中共国的银行对钞票进行消毒,并将其存放在保险箱中长达14天,然后才投入流通。

A highlight, however, came in May, when the World Economic Forum published an article in its “Global Agenda” strongly supporting the mass adoption of digital payments, for the sake of public health. In it, the authors argue that “contactless digital payments at the point of sale, such as facial recognition, Quick Response (QR) codes or near-field communications (NFC), can make it less likely for the virus to spread to others through cash exchanges.” They also applauded the efforts of China in digitizing payments and appeared to hold the country and its measures as a model to be emulated: “China’s path to enabling digital payments should provide some lessons to other countries eager to follow suit.” Since a number of Western governments may indeed be “eager to follow suit”, let us take a closer look at this bright example and examine what it really entails.

然而,今年5月有一个值得一提的事件,世界经济论坛在其“全球议程”上发表了一篇文章,强烈支持为了公共健康而大规模采用数字支付。在报告中,作者认为“在销售点的非接触式数字支付,如面部识别、二维码(QR)码或近场通信(NFC),可以降低病毒通过现金交换传播给他人的可能性。”他们还称赞了中共国在数字化支付方面所做的努力,并似乎将中共国及其措施作为一个可供效仿的榜样:“中共国实现数字化支付的道路应该为其他渴望效仿的国家提供一些经验。”由于许多西方政府可能确实“渴望效仿”,让我们更仔细地看看这个鲜活的例子,看看它到底意味着什么。

Fiat money 2.0

法定货币2.0

The digitalization drive in all aspects of the Chinese state, society and economy is nothing new and it certainly predated the emergence of Covid-19. The country’s infamous “social rating system” has made headlines years ago and the government’s eagerness to use technology, the internet and all sorts of digital systems to track its citizens’ behaviors and affiliations has long attracted International criticism and widespread condemnation by human rights organizations, privacy advocates and free speech supporters. Now, however, the state has been given a reason to accelerate its efforts in the mass adoption of digital payments and the abandonment of cash.

数字化在中共国国家、社会和经济各个方面的推动已经不是什么新鲜事了,它肯定早于Covid-19的出现。中共国臭名昭著的“社会评价系统”是几年前的头条,政府急于利用科技、互联网和各种各样的数字系统跟踪其公民的行为和关系,长期以来这引起了国际社会的批评和人权组织、隐私拥护者和自由言论支持者的广泛谴责。然而,现在,政府有了一个理由来加快大规模采用数字支付和放弃现金的努力。

To a large extent, this digitization of payments task was much easier in China, as digital payments there are already very widespread in the population. More than 80% of consumers already used mobile payments in 2019, according to management consultancy Bain, a sharp contrast with the US that had adoption rates of less than 10%. So, as the population has already accepted a new way of payment, the new initiative sought to dominate the means of payment too. Thus, a new “digital yuan” was introduced. This new fiat currency, that has been in development for over 5 years, was rolled out in April in four Chinese cities with a plan for national adoption soon, so that it eventually replaces the physical legal tender.

在很大程度上,这种数字化的支付任务在中共国要容易得多,因为数字支付在中共国已经非常普遍。根据管理咨询公司贝恩(Bain)的数据,在2019年,超过80%的消费者已经使用了移动支付,这与美国不到10%的普及率形成了鲜明对比。因此,由于人们已经接受了一种新的支付方式,新的倡议试图主导此种支付方式。于是,一种新的“数字元”被引入。这种新的法定货币已经开发了5年多,今年4月在中国的4个城市推出,并计划很快在全国范围内采用,最终将取代实际的法定货币。

This so-called Digital Currency Electronic Payment (DCEP) will be put into circulation through China’s big four state banks and citizens will be able to receive and use it by downloading an electronic wallet application authorized by the People’s Bank of China (PBOC), which will be linked to their bank account. On the surface, it appears to work just like the old currency. It is issued and backed by the PBOC, it’s valued the same as the physical banknotes and, thanks to partnerships with Alipay and WeChat Pay, that control 80% of the country’s payment market, it will be used to get paid by anyone and to pay for anything. In fact, some public servant salaries and state subsidies are already being paid out in this new digital yuan, arriving in their intended recipients’ digital wallets.

这种所谓的数字货币电子支付(DCEP)将通过中共国四大国有银行进入流通系统,公民可以通过下载一个经中国人民银行授权的电子钱包应用程序来接收和使用,该应用程序将与公民的银行账户绑定。从表面上看,它似乎和旧货币没什么两样。它由中国人民银行发行并支持,其价值与实物钞票相同。由于它与控制中国80%支付市场的支付宝(Alipay)和微信支付(Wechat Pay)公司有合作关系,任何人都可以用它来支付,也可以用它来支付任何东西。事实上,一些公务员的工资和国家补贴已经用这种新的数字元支付了,送到了他们的目标接受者的数字钱包里。

According to China’s state media People’s Daily, the new currency is meant to simplify domestic transactions and trade, but it will also facilitate and ease cross border transactions. The implication there is clear: It is yet another attempt to challenge the global dominance of the USD, after the Belt and Road initiative failed to really move the needle as the Chinese state had hoped. The strategy of spending of huge amounts of Chinese money abroad did provide some leverage over developing countries, but it didn’t come anywhere near “dethroning” the Dollar and internationalizing the Renminbi. Perhaps, this initiative will fare better, especially as it now has the “first-mover” advantage.

据中共国官方媒体《人民日报》报道,新货币旨在简化国内交易和贸易,它也将便利和简化跨境交易。其中的含义很明显:这是在“一带一路”倡议未能如中共国政府所希望的那样真正发挥作用后,挑战美元全球主导地位的又一次尝试。中共国将大量资金投入海外的战略确实对发展中国家提供了一些杠杆作用,但它远没有“取代”美元和实现人民币国际化。也许,这一倡议会进展得更好,特别是因为它现在拥有“先发”优势。

Entering this “digital fiat” arena first is hugely important and the timing of the currency’s launch was no coincidence. The development and the rollout plan were significantly accelerated following Facebook’s announcement of the Libra, as the Chinese state wouldn’t have the private tech giant beat them to the punch. In fact, the digital yuan resembles the Libra in many ways. Most importantly, neither of them is a cryptocurrency, which is decentralized by design and allows for peer to peer transactions without the need of an intermediary or third party. In this case, the issuer is the third party and all transactions go through a very centralized system that controls and has access to all the data. In another non-coincidence just a few years back, China’s government banned initial coin offerings and placed great burdens on cryptocurrencies and crypto-investors making it very hard to operate in the country, thereby dismantling the threat of potential competition from the private sector and clearing the way for its own digital coin.

首先进入这个“数字法定货币”竞技场非常重要,这种货币发行的时机也绝非巧合。在Facebook宣布推出Libra之后,中共国开发和推进数字货币的速度大大加快,这是因为中共国政府不会让这家民营科技巨头抢先一步。事实上,数字“元”在很多方面都和Libra很像。最重要的是,它们都不是加密货币,加密货币的设计是去中心化的,允许不需要中介或第三方的点对点交易。在这种情况下,发行者是第三方,所有交易都要通过一个非常集中的系统来控制和访问所有数据。在另一个非巧合时,仅仅几年前, 中共国政府禁止发行初始代币,并给加密货币和加密投资者带来沉重负担,使他们很难在该国开展业务,从而消除了来自私营部门的潜在竞争威胁,并为自己的数字代币扫清了道路。

编辑:【喜马拉雅战鹰团】Edited by:【Himalaya Hawk Squad】