作者：彼得·希夫（Peter Schiff:）
新闻来源： 零对冲
Via SchiffGold.com,
转自SchiffGold.com
翻译：CharlesS
简评: CharlesS
PR：In a hurry
简评：
香港让全世界必须直视中共之面目，股市暴跌、经济崩溃才让美国有了切肤之痛！本文作者想告诉美国人，觉得经济很快能复原，那是痴心妄想。
中共武汉肺炎只是一个导火索，真正的金融危机早已埋藏在内。用最简单“外行”的话说：金融市场是基于“现实”以及“对未来的预期”，“价格围绕价值上下浮动”。然而，原本就是一个过度膨胀的金融市场，过度放债、杠杆、虚高的资产价值，瘟疫爆发前的总市值已经超过实际和预期的生产力太多！这就好比一个人的血液都被水稀释了，泡泡破掉只是谁来扎的问题。
如何度过危机？经历过2008年的人可能心有余悸，这绝不是简单牺牲点生活条件就能解决的。当中共武汉肺炎爆发，市场的恐慌使得流动性迅速恶化，血液被迅速抽干，该怎么急救？放出利好消息、印更多钱，再注更多的水到血管里，这能救人吗？那不注水行吗？这是真正的大危机，没有血液流动，造成的是通缩；不断注水，造成的又是通胀，而且过度注入也加深了民众的恐慌情绪。普通民众对突入其来的巨大刺激难免怀疑，股市的低点究竟在哪里？经济究竟有多么积重难返？
现在，中共武汉肺炎对生产力的影响，对经济活动总量的影响，对未来预期的影响，都不是短时间内能消失的。实体恢复之前，金融市场不可能恢复。即使实体经济恢复，要“牺牲”多少来还注水的债？
俗话说，冤有头，债有主。文贵先生说，“你做的恶，就是我消灭你的力量”。中共所犯下的累累罪行，给世界造成的重大伤害，都讲化为复仇的力量，灭掉中共。
Peter Schiff: COVID-19 Is Exposing The Truth About The Economy
彼得·希夫：中共武汉肺炎（COVID-19）揭示了关于经济的真相
It wasn’t long ago that all of the pundits were telling us that the economy was strong. As a result, a lot of people seem to think that once the coronavirus situation is resolved, the economy will quickly go back to normal. In his podcast Friday, Peter Schiff said that’s not going to happen. The coronavirus is actually going to reveal that the “great” economy was an illusion — a big, fat, ugly bubble that has now been popped.
不久之前，所有专家都在告诉我们经济很强劲。于是，许多人似乎认为，一旦中共冠状病毒的情况得到解决，经济将迅速恢复正常。彼得·希夫在他周五的播客中说道，这不会发生。事实上中共冠状病毒将揭示“伟大”的经济其实是一种幻觉-一个已经被戳破了的巨大的、肥胖的、丑陋的泡沫。
US stocks ended a very volatile week down again on Friday. The Dow Jones shed another 913 points and has now lost all of the gains made during the Trump presidency. On the week, the Dow dropped over 4,000 points. It was the worst week ever in terms of a drop in points. On a percentage basis, it was the worst week since the 2008 financial crisis.
截止周五，美国股市结束了巨幅动荡和再次下跌的一周。道琼斯指数再下跌913点，现在已经跌掉了川普上任以来取得的所有增长。以一周计，道指下跌超过4,000点。就指数下降而言，这是有史以来最糟糕的一周。从百分比来看，这是自2008年金融危机以来最糟糕的一周。
In his podcast Friday, Peter Schiff said this looks an awful lot like a financial crisis even though everybody keeps saying it’s not a financial crisis.
彼得·希夫在播客“周五”中说，这看起来多么像金融危机，尽管每个人还在坚持说这不是金融危机。
“The difference is this is a bigger financial crisis than the one we had in 2008.”
“不同的是，这是一场比2008年更大的金融危机。”
In fact, March is on track to be the worst percentage drop in the US stock market in one month since 1932.
实际上，3月有望成为自1932年以来来美国股市跌幅最大的一个月。
That was the depression. And you know, it’s not a coincidence that the market is behaving today the way it behaved in a depression. Because we’re entering another one. Only this is going to be much worse. It’s going to be an inflationary depression. … This is not your great-grandfather’s depression.”
那是大萧条。你知道的，今天的市场反应有如在大萧条时期之中，这并非偶然。因为我们正将步入下一个（大萧条时期）。“这次只会更糟。这将是通货膨胀的大萧条。 ……这不是您曾祖父遇到的那个大萧条。”
The conventional wisdom is that everything will be fine once we get through the coronavirus shutdown. Meanwhile, the government can keep us all afloat with bailouts.
大家一致认为，当我们度过了中共冠状病毒的隔离期，一切都会好起来的。同时，政府可以通过救助来维持我们所有人的生计。
This is so laughable and shows how little people understand basic economics.”
“这真是可笑，表明很少有人了解基本经济学。”
Peter raises the key question: where is the money going to come from to pay everybody? Of course, it will be created out of thin air. The Federal Reserve will once again monetize the debt. In the process, its balance sheet is going to explode. Once this is over, how can the central bank possibly shrink that balance sheet and say “it’s business as usual?” How are we going to let interest rates rise when there is all that debt? Keep in mind, we are already up to our eyeballs in government, corporate and personal debt thanks to the easy money policies of the Fed after the 2008 crisis.
彼得提出了一个关键问题：钱会从哪里冒来付给所有人？当然，它是凭空印制的。美联储将再次将债务货币化。在此过程中，其资产负债表将爆炸。一旦疫情结束，中央银行怎么可能缩小资产负债表并说“照常营业”？当债务累累时，我们将如何让利率上升？请记住， 2008年金融危机后，由于当时美联储采取的宽松货币政策，我们在政府、公司和个人债务方面早已焦头烂额 。
The only alternative will be to leave all of those assets on the Fed’s balance sheet. As we saw a couple of years ago, the Fed wasn’t able to normalize rates or shrink its balance sheet after the Great Recession. It certainly won’t be able to this time. In other words, the central bank will have to permanently monetize the debt. But that raises another question.
唯一的备选是将所有这些资产留在美联储的资产负债表上。正如我们几年前所看到的那样，在大衰退之后，美联储无法正常化利率或缩减资产负债表。当然，这一次也不行。换句话说，中央银行将不得不永久性地将债务货币化。但这又导致了另一个问题。
What is going to happen to the US dollar when this liquidity squeeze is over? If we can’t withdraw that liquidity, then the dollar is going to completely implode.”
“当流动性紧缩结束后，美元将发生什么？如果我们不能撤出这种流动性，那么美元将彻底崩溃。”
Peter used a WWII analogy. After the war, taxes remained high and the government was able to eventually pay off all the debt. This time, the government is trying to promise sacrifice without pain. It doesn’t work that way.
彼得用第二次世界大战作比喻。战后，税收仍然很高，靠这样政府最终还清了所有债务。这次，政府正试图承诺无痛苦的牺牲。那样行不通。
There is a difference between real credit that comes from savings and the fake credit that the Federal Reserve conjures into existence just by creating money. There’re no resources that are made available to the government. There’s just inflation. You’re just printing money. Everybody is still operating under the delusion that the money we print has real value. And they keep going back to the idea that everything is going to be fine. We just have to make the sacrifice and they don’t realize that the sacrifices we made in World War Two were completely different. It’s not a sacrifice if everybody gets bailed out. The sacrifice is when you don’t get bailed out; you have to deal with it yourself.”
来自储蓄的实际信用与美联储仅通过印制货币而变幻成的虚假信用之间确实存在区别。没有可供政府使用的资源，这就是通货膨胀。您只是在印钱。每个人仍然在我们所印的钱具有真正价值的妄想下运作。他们持续地坚持一切都会好起来的想法。人们认为只需要做出牺牲，但却没有意识到我们在第二次世界大战中所做的牺牲是完全不同的。如果每个人都得到救助，这不是牺牲。牺牲是当你没有得到任何救助时，您必须自己处理。
The key thing to understand is that even if the coronavirus is quickly controlled, everything is not going to go back to normal. Everybody thinks we had a great economy before the coronavirus started spreading around the world.
要了解的关键是，即使可以快速控制中共冠状病毒，一切也不会恢复正常。每个人都认为，在中共冠状病毒开始向全球传播之前，我们经济发展良好。
But it wasn’t. It was a bubble. And the coronavirus pricked the bubble. And that doesn’t mean that after the coronavirus problem is over the bubble just magically relates. It’s not going to happen. There’s no way to reflate this bubble. The bubble has popped. It’s because we didn’t have a viable economy before the pin pricked the bubble, that’s why we’re not going to have a recovery when the pin is gone. Once this whole house of cards comes tumbling down — it’s down.”
但事实并非如此。那已经是一个泡沫。中共冠状病毒刺破了这个泡沫。这也不意味着在中共冠状病毒问题被解决之后，泡沫就神奇地粘回来了。这不会发生。无法再吹起这个气泡。泡沫已经破灭了。这是因为在大头针刺破泡沫之前我们没有可行的经济，这就是为什么当大头针消失后我们将不会复苏的原因。一旦这整个纸牌屋倒塌了，那就倒了。”
Peter said this is going to expose the US economy for what it was – an illusion.
彼得说，这将揭露美国经济真实的面貌-一种幻觉。
The coronavirus is going to expose the truth. It’s going to be laid bare for everybody to see. So, it’s not going to be fine when this is over, even if it is over soon.”
“冠状病毒将揭露真相。它将公开展示给大家。因此当疫情过去之后不会是‘一切都还好’，即使这疫情很快结束。”
In this podcast, Peter also explains why the dollar is rising now, but why we are on the cusp of a dollar crisis.
在他的播客中，彼得还解释了为什么美元现在正在上涨，但我们处于美元危机的风口浪尖上。
编辑 【喜马拉雅战鹰团】