Loading

凯尔·巴斯大手笔,以200倍杠杆赌注做空港币 【中英对照翻译】

作者:by Tyler Durden Tue, 06/09/2020 - 14:53 / 泰勒·德登 周二,2020/6/9-14:53

消息来源:zerohedge / 零对冲

翻译/简评:TCC

PR:海阔天空

简评:

身为法治基金主席的凯尔·巴斯先生一直是我们爆料革命的战友。夹着在2008年金融危机的大成功,他再次大胆的以1比200 倍的空前之举,做空港币。香港财政司司长陈茂波表示,香港在中国人民银行的背书下,已准备好捍卫港币汇率,且最近数月以来,港币依然强势。在这些看似不利的情况下,巴斯先生依然下注,这一定是对中共倒台、美国必胜、以及邪不胜正的信心。

难怪文贵先生说,香港是推翻中共的第一道大门,不但在政治上也在经济上。在香港抗议活动的周年纪念日子里,获得这个消息,意义非凡。让我们期待早日重建这中国人的”雅典娜”,还我”东方明珠”本色。

Kyle Bass Launches New Fund For 200x Levered Bet Against Hong Kong Dollar

凯尔·巴斯(Kyle Bass)推出新基金,以200倍杠杆赌注做空港币

When we first published Kyle Bass's "the Quiet Panic" back in April 2019, the investing community laughed off Bass's leveraged bet against the HKD's peg to the dollar as a novelty, and blasted Bass as a washed-up sinophobe who spends his days hanging out with Steve Bannon in an empty aircraft hangar.

当我们于2019年4月首次发布凯尔·巴斯(Kyle Bass)的《安静的恐慌》时,投资界嘲笑巴斯的港元对美元汇率的杠杆赌注前无古人,并抨击巴斯是一个过气的仇中派,他花了太多时间与史蒂夫·班农(Steve Bannon)坐在空荡荡的停机库内闲磕牙。

When unrest erupted in Hong Kong a couple of months later, talk of financial stress was, at least initially, surprisingly muted. But Beijing's clampdown appears to finally have brought HK's chickens home to roost, as its currency's peg to the dollar has come under intense strain.

几个月后,当香港爆发动荡时,至少在最初,人们对金融压力的谈论出奇地低调。北京的打压香港终于得到报应,香港的货币与美元挂钩感受到了巨大的压力。

During the interceding months, as Bass has admittedly focused more on politics and less on running his hedge fund, he has become so convinced that the peg will soon snap, that he's cranked up to leverage on his long-term derivatives bet to absurd levels, hoping to reap another windfall on par with his bet against the housing market that launched him to investing superstardom.

在这几个月里,由于巴斯承认他更多地关注政治,而不是经营他的对冲基金,他已经确信钉子很快就会折断,所以他把他的长期衍生品赌注的杠杆率调到了荒唐的水平,希望能获得与他对房市的赌注一样的另一笔意外之财,而房市的赌注将他推向了投资界的超级明星。

According to Bloomberg, Bass has raised an undisclosed amount of money for a new fund under the auspices of Hayman Capital that will use long-term options contracts to place a 200-to-1 leveraged bet against the HKD currency peg.

据彭博社报导,巴斯已经在海曼资本(Hayman Capital)的支持下筹集了一笔未公开数目的新基金,该基金将使用长期期货合约以200比1的杠杆赌注做空港币兑美元汇率。

Unfortunately for Bass, the HKD has been so strong in recent months that HK's de-facto central bank, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, has sold more than HK$40 billion ($5.2 billion) since April to prevent the currency from appreciating outside the band. Others have dismissed this recent upside pressure as the calm before the storm, as the US prepares to strip HK of its special status, threatening tens of billions of dollars in bilateral trade.

对于巴斯而言,不幸的是,港币近几个月来一直如此强劲,以至于香港实质上的中央银行的香港金管局自4月以来已售出逾400亿港元(约合52亿美元) ,以防止该货币在该区间外升值。由于美国准备剥夺香港的特殊地位,已威胁到数百亿美元的双边贸易,因此其他人则将近期的上行压力视为暴风雨前的宁静。

Hong Kong Financial Secretary Paul Chan said this month that the city is ready to defend the exchange rate and that, if necessary, the mainland would backstop the peg via swap lines with the PBOC. Other fears of financial stress in the HK banking system and housing market have also been relatively muted.

香港财政司司长陈茂波(Paul Chan)本月表示,香港准备好捍卫汇率,如果有必要,中国内地将通过与中国人民银行的掉期(美元)额度以支持港币兑美元汇率。其他则担忧对香港银行体系和房地产市场的财务压力已相对疲软了。

That could be a serious problem for Bass's investors since, as Bloomberg points out, the insane leverage ratio means that losses will be 100% if the peg isn't broken within 18 months.

对于巴斯的投资者来说,这可能是一个严重的问题,因为正如彭博社指出的那样,这疯狂的杠杆比率意味着,如果港币兑美元汇率在18个月内没有破裂,亏损将是100% 。

Kyle Bass is going for broke on a currency trade that has burned bearish speculators for more than three decades.

凯尔·巴斯(Kyle Bass)对这已经毁掉了三十多年来看跌投机者的货币(港币)上,全力做空。

The Dallas-based founder of Hayman Capital Management is starting a new fund that will make all-or-nothing wagers on a collapse in Hong Kong’s currency peg, people with knowledge of the matter said.

知情人士说,以达拉斯为据点海曼资本管理公司(Hayman Capital Management)的创始人正在发起一项新基金,该基金将全力以赴做空港币对美元汇率。

Bass, best known for his prescient bet against subprime mortgages before the 2008 financial crisis, will use option contracts to leverage the new fund’s assets by 200 times, the people said, asking not to be identified discussing private information. While the strategy is designed to generate outsized gains if Hong Kong’s currency tumbles against the dollar, investors stand to lose all their money if the peg is still intact after 18 months.

不愿透露姓名的知情人士说,巴斯以在2008年金融危机之前以对次级抵押贷款的先见之明而著称,他将利用期权合约将新基金的资产以杠杆200倍下注。虽然该策略旨在当港元兑美元汇率下跌时产生巨大收益,但如果在18个月后与美元保持联系不变,投资者将损失所有资金。

Bass's track record on HK has been impressively prescient, but still, the drawbacks to such a high leverage ratio means there's no room for error, as BBG explains.

巴斯在香港的以往成绩令人印象深刻,但是,如BBG所述,如此高的杠杆比率的弊病意味着没有错误的空间。

The trade is audacious even for Bass, who profited handsomely during the subprime crisis but has since had less success with doomsday calls on everything from Japanese government bonds to the Chinese yuan. A vocal critic of China’s Communist Party, the 50-year-old investor wrote in a Newsweek op-ed last month that Hong Kong has become “ground zero for the ideological clash between democracy and heavy-handed Chinese communism.”

甚至对巴斯来说,这笔交易也是大胆的。巴斯在次贷危机中获利颇丰,但之后的从日本国债到人民币的世界末日呼吁,却没有太多的成功。这位50岁的投资者兼中共批评家,上个月在《新闻周刊》上发表评论说,香港已到了“民主与中共国强权共产主义之间的意识形态冲突的底线” 。

And although we're tempted to question whether his politics are coloring his judgment, if Bass does prevail, he will join a rarefied club of macro managers who have attained legendary status for reaping massive profits on macro bets, like George Soros did when he "broke the back of the pound".

而且,尽管我们很想质疑他的政治是否会影响他的判断,但如果巴斯成功了,他将加入一个稀有的宏观管理者俱乐部,该组织因在宏观赌注中获得巨额利润而享有传奇般的地位,就像乔治·索罗斯(George Soros)在“打破了英镑的坚挺” (1992年9月16日英国政府因无法将英镑维持在欧洲汇率机制规定的较低汇率下限之后,被迫从ERM撤回英镑)。

Bass reportedly told prospective investors in the Hayman Hong Kong Opportunities Fund, which launched June 1, that they could expect as high as a 64-fold return if the currency declines by 40%, according to a person familiar with the matter, who asked not to be identified because it’s private. That would be even larger than the Chinese yuan deval of August 2015.

据知情但不愿透露姓名的人士透露,巴斯告知6月1日成立的海曼香港机会基金的潜在投资者,如果货币贬值40%,他们有望获得高达64倍的回报。这(报酬率)甚至比2015年8月的人民币汇率升值还要大。

Whatever happens with the fund, at least Bass will earn a decent profit on the management fees. Bass is charging a one-time fee of 2%, and 15% of profits, though presumably he is investing at least some of his own money in the fund, as he has in the past.

无论基金发生什么情况,至少巴斯都会从管理费上获得可观的利润。巴斯将收取2%的一次性费用和15%的利润,尽管他可能像往常一样将自有资金投资于该基金。

编辑:【喜马拉雅战鹰团】Edited by:【Himalaya Hawk Squad】