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《香港国安法》成为中共对抗全世界的矛和盾 【中英对照翻译】

新闻来源:The Diplomat《外交官》;作者:Andrei Lungu;发布时间:July 18, 2020/2020年7月18日

翻译/简评:文意;校对:海阔天空;审核:海阔天空;Page:拱卒

简评:

本文作者认为“全世界正在陷入中共国的香港陷阱”,原因是中共政府用香港国安法以最小的代价来转移内部矛盾,煽动民族主义风潮 ,绑架中共国14亿人民来一致对抗西方。因此,本文作者呼吁美国等西方国家在对中共进行制裁时要慎重考虑中共国内的舆论宣传以及中共对民众进行的民族主义洗脑,争取获得中国人民的支持,削弱中共的独裁势力。作者提出的这一点非常重要,美国政府在考虑自己的政策决策时一定要把中共与中国人民分开,把中共的少数极端分子与绝大多数党员分开,最大限度地创造支持民主和自由的力量,而不是把中国人民推到中共一边。

幸运的是郭先生引领的由亿万战友参加的爆料革命唤醒了体制内有良知的人们。越来越多的人要与中共体制切割,更多的人勇敢的站出来揭露中共血腥暴政,看清了邪恶政府的本质,嘲讽中共的愚民宣传。中共想唤醒“中国人民族主义“的愿望是不会如愿的。因为中共不等于中国,中共不等于中国人民,中共不等于中华民族。 中国人已经觉醒!中共是中华民族的败类和敌人。他不能代表中国人,更不代表中华民族。他只是在愚弄那些不知真相被洗脑的中国人民, 一旦防火墙打开, 所有有良知的中国人会站起来反抗这个黑社会,争取他们应有的自由、法制和民主!

原文翻译:

The World Is Falling for China’s Hong Kong Trap

全世界正陷入中共国的香港陷阱

With the national security law, the CCP created for itself the perfect opportunity to pit China against “foreign hostile forces.”

有了香港的国家安全法,中共为自己创造了一个绝佳的机会,对与中共作对的"外国敌对势力"进行攻击。

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The Chinese leadership’s decision to introduce national security legislation in Hong Kong has attracted global attention and condemnation. This move was unsurprising, as the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has been trying to tighten control of the autonomous city over the past years and the lack of a national security law has been a sore spot for almost two decades. Yet it was also unexpected – it came at a moment when, as the report of a well-known think tank with ties to the country’s Ministry of State Security described, China faces the most difficult geopolitical environment since 1989, with anti-China sentiment at its highest.

中共国领导人在香港实施国家安全立法的决定引起了全球的关注和谴责。此举不足为奇,因为中国共产党(CCP)多年来一直试图加强对自治城市的控制,而缺乏国家安全法近20年来一直是一个痛点。然而,这也出人意料——正如一家与国家安全部有联系的知名智囊团的报告所描述的那样,此举是在中共国面临着自1989年以来最困难的地缘政治环境下,反华情绪达到最高点时完成的。

Introducing national security legislation in Hong Kong less than a year after massive protests and a resounding electoral defeat, just four months before Legislative Council elections — all while the COVID-19 pandemic has focused the world’s attention and criticism on China, countries everywhere are rethinking their China policies and exploring how to shorten supply chains, and the United States government is hitting China in almost every way it can — makes no sense. Chinese leaders certainly understood that such a move would be bad for their country from a diplomatic, geopolitical, or economic point of view. Yet they did it anyway. Why?

中共在大规模抗议和选举惨败不到一年后,距离立法会选举只有四个月时在香港出台国家安全立法是毫无意义的——于此同时新冠病毒大流行将全世界的注意力和指责集中在中共国,各国都在重新审视其对中共政策,并探索如何缩短供应链,美国政府以各种方式打击中国。中共国领导人当然明白,从外交、地缘政治或经济角度看,此举对他们的国家是有害的。然而,他们还是这样做了。为什么?

Because, while bad for China, it makes a lot of sense politically for the CCP, Xi Jinping and the current leadership. For example, Party leaders have already been warned, sometimes publicly, by prominent Chinese international relations experts about the risks and dangers of the rising trend of aggressive diplomacy. Yet even when they saw the negative consequences unfolding before their eyes, they still didn’t abandon this aggressive style. The general view outside of China is that this policy has been adopted largely to stoke Chinese nationalism and shore up support for the party, regardless of its damage to China. Unfortunately, other Chinese actions are judged strictly from a realist foreign policy perspective, without paying enough attention to domestic pressures, party dynamics and political motivations, which are sometimes more prominent in Beijing than in other democratic capitals.

因为,虽然对中共国不好,但它在政治上对中共、习近平和现任领导人来说很有意义。例如,中共著名的国际关系专家曾警告过中共领导人,甚至于公开警告过他们侵略性外交趋势所带来的风险和危机。然而,即使他们看到负面后果在他们眼前发生,他们仍然没有放弃这种侵略性外交。中共以外的普遍看法是,采取这一政策主要是为了煽动中共国的民族主义,并巩固对党的支持,而不管它对中共国造成了什么损害。不幸的是,中共国的其他行动都是严格从现实主义外交政策的角度来判断的,没有对国内压力、政党动态和政治动机给予足够的关注,这些因素在北京比在其他民主国家首都更为突出。

三权合作,沆瀣一气

This raises the worrying possibility that introducing the national security law now (as opposed to sometime later) isn’t so much about Hong Kong, but about Beijing. If we accept that Xi and CCP leaders were aware of the blowback their Hong Kong decision would generate, then one of their main reasons for taking this decision now could have been specifically to strengthen the party’s domestic image and popularity, while generating foreign attacks on China, which will increase nationalism.

这提出了一个令人担忧的可能性,即现在(而不是以后某个时候)出台国家安全法,这并非为了香港,而是为了北京。如果我们承认习近平和中共领导人意识到他们在香港的决定会受到国际社会的打击,那么他们现在做出这一决定的主要原因之一可能是加强党在国内的形象和声望,尽管同时会引起国际社会对中共的打击,但是这将唤起强烈的民族主义。

Even though China successfully managed to deal with the COVID-19 epidemic and later contrasted this approach to the situation in western Europe and the United States, improving its domestic image in some segments of the population, there are still internal risks, especially economic ones. The impact of the shutdown in China and the possible return of the coronavirus, combined with the economic downturn in export markets and trade and economic tensions with the U.S., might spell trouble later this year.

尽管中共国声称他们成功地应对了冠状病毒的疫情,后来又对比西欧和美国的治理疫情的方法,改善了其在某些人群中的国内形象,但国内风险依然存在,特别是经济风险。中共国停产和冠状病毒可能回归的影响,加上出口市场经济的衰退,以及中美贸易和经济紧张局势的恶化,可能会在今年晚些时候带来更多麻烦。

China’s GDP already suffered a 6.8 percent contraction in the first quarter, something unprecedented in the reform and opening-up period. Unofficial figures estimated the real unemployment rate after the shutdown at almost 10 percent. Premier Li Keqiang’s candid admission that 600 million Chinese citizens still have monthly incomes under 1,000 renminbi speaks to the economic problems the government faces, as does the attempt to boost employment through the “street-stall economy.” Yet the debates and contradicting messages from different parts of the government and the CCP regarding street stalls hint at the fact that there isn’t unity within the Party leadership on how to tackle the economic issues China faces. And all these economic issues could one day translate into political issues. Aware of this fact, in June, the CCP established a task force to boost political security. Considering the economic outlook and the general political climate, combined with the difficult international environment, Xi might be feeling pressure and seeing potential risks from both the Party leadership and the wider public.

一季度,中共国国家经济生产总值GDP已经萎缩了6.8%,这是改革开放时期前所未有的。非官方数字估计关闭后的实际失业率接近10%。李克强总理坦言,6亿中共国公民的月收入仍低于1000元人民币,这说明了中共政府面临的经济问题,以及通过"地摊经济"促进就业的尝试。然而,政府和中共不同方面关于街头摊位的争论和矛盾表明,在如何解决中共国面临的经济问题上,党的领导内部存在很大分歧。所有这些经济问题有一天会转化为政治问题。意识到这一事实,中共在6月成立了一个特别工作组,来促进政治安全。考虑到经济前景和总体政治气候,加上困难的国际环境,习近平可能会感到压力,并看到来自党内领导和广大公众的潜在危机和风险。

What better way to preempt such political risks than shoring up support for the Party by portraying it as the defender and savior of China’s territorial integrity, sovereignty, and dignity? While over the two months before the Hong Kong legislation was announced, there were growing calls in China for a military takeover of Taiwan, such an action would be extremely risky and costly. Hong Kong, on the other hand, is an easier target, but no less fruitful when it comes to playing to nationalist sentiment among the Chinese public. The nationalist bent among Chinese citizens has already reached such heights that authorities had to shut down numerous social media accounts that went too far, including by claiming that some neighboring countries, such as Kazakhstan, are eager to “return” to China.

还有什么比把党描绘成是中共国主权和领土完整的捍卫者和救世主来防范这种政治风险更好的方法呢?虽然在香港立法公布前的两个月里,中共国要求军事接管台湾的人越来越多,但这样的行动将极其危险和昂贵。另一方面,香港是一个更容易的目标,但在玩弄中共国公众的民族主义情绪方面,同样富有成效。中共国公民的民族主义倾向已经如此之高,当局不得不关闭许多社交媒体账户,这些账户走得太远了,包括声称一些邻国,如哈萨克斯坦,渴望"回归"中共国。

It was very predictable that the United States, the United Kingdom, and others would criticize the law and might even impose sanctions. Protests in Hong Kong, including violent ones, were also predictable. But, while costly, there is no reaction that the Party cannot manage, as it is clear there’s no appetite in Washington, London, or Brussels for a huge fight over Hong Kong, with all the inevitable economic consequences. The external criticism would only strengthen the CCP, which could depict it as foreign interference in Hong Kong, one of its main arguments for the national security legislation.

可以预见,美国、英国和其他国家会批评这项法律,甚至可能实施制裁。香港的抗议活动,包括暴力抗议活动,也是可以预见的。但是,尽管代价高昂,但没有什么反应是共产党无法应对的,因为很明显,华盛顿、伦敦或布鲁塞尔都不想就香港问题展开一场巨大的争斗,因为会给他们带来不可避免的经济后果。外界的批评只会加强中共的统治,因为中共可以把它描绘成外国对香港的干涉,而这也是香港国家安全立法的主要论据之一。

中共的目的达到了

And so things fell into place. All over the world, there has been an uproar. The U.S. secretary of state announced that Washington no longer considers Hong Kong autonomous, setting the stage for imposing economic costs. Members of the U.S. Congress have proposed bills to punish China and its leadership; one that proposes recognizing Hong Kong as a country is especially far-fetched (and short-sighted, as it plays right into the CCP’s hands, lending credence to the theory that the United States’ ultimate goal is Hong Kong independence). London criticized the “serious breach” of the Sino-British Joint Declaration and announced measures of its own. The U.S., the U.K., Canada and Australia issued a joint statement condemning the move. The G-7 followed suit. The EU issued its own statement. A U.N. Security Council meeting on Hong Kong was unsuccessfully called. The Party created for itself the perfect opportunity to pit China against “foreign hostile forces.”

事情就这样定下来了。国安法的实施造成了全世界的骚动。美国国务卿宣布,华盛顿不再认为香港是自治的,这为让中共承担经济代价奠定了基础。美国国会成员提出了惩罚中共及其领导人的法案; 有人提出承认香港独立特别牵强(而且目光短浅,因为它正重中共诡计,这会让人相信美国最终目标是令香港独立)。伦敦批评中共"严重违反"中英联合声明“,并宣布了自己的措施。美国、英国、加拿大和澳大利亚发表联合声明,谴责这一举动。七国集团也紧随其后。欧盟发表了自己的声明。中共国希望的由联合国安理会就香港问题召开会议没有成功。中共为自己创造了一个绝佳的机会,让中共国对抗"外国敌对势力"。

Even if many foreign critics are placing the blame on the Party, picturing the situation in Hong Kong as a struggle for freedom, in China, over the past year, the extensive propaganda apparatus has painted it as a struggle for China’s sovereignty against Hong Kong “rioters” and “separatists.” At home, the CCP can present its decision as perfectly legal and even a responsibility that fell on the Chinese leadership, because of Hong Kong’s failure to enact national security legislation. Meanwhile, the United States is portrayed as the “black hand” sowing chaos in Hong Kong.

即使许多外国批评家把责任推到中共头上,把香港的情况描绘成争取自由的斗争,但在过去的一年里,中共国广泛的宣传机构将其描绘成一场针对香港"暴乱者"和"分裂主义分子"的中共国主权斗争。在国内,由于香港未能制定国家安全立法,中共可以将其决定视为完全合法,甚至是中共领导层的一项责任。与此同时,美国被描绘成香港制造混乱的"黑手"。

While there is no clear data from public surveys, the general impression is that there is only limited sympathy in mainland China for Hong Kong’s struggle. As calls for independence in Hong Kong are intensifying, while foreign powers are becoming more critical about Beijing’s actions, fanning nationalism in China with become ever simpler. And as long as the CCP holds tight and doesn’t appear weak in the face of foreign pressure, it can strengthen its public support.

虽然公众调查没有清楚的数据,但一般的印象是,中共国大陆对香港的同情有限。随着香港要求独立的呼吁日益高涨,外国势力对北京的行动越来越不满,煽动中共国的民族主义也越来越简单。只要中共坚持立场,面对外国压力,不显得软弱无力,就可以加强公众的支持。

Throughout the years, there have been worries that the Chinese leadership might one day adopt an aggressive foreign policy, or even start a war, just to distract from domestic problems and rally public support. Hong Kong offers an opportunity for the same positive results for the leadership, but without the risks and costs of a war.

多年来,人们一直担心,中共国领导人有一天会采取激进的外交政策,甚至发动战争,只是为了转移国内问题的注意力,争取公众的支持。香港为领导层提供了同样的正面机会,而且没有战争的风险和代价。

DIPLOMAT BRIEF 外交简报

It is difficult to say whether the Chinese leadership decided to introduce the national security law in Hong Kong now specifically to pit China against foreign critics and inflame nationalist sentiments, or whether the main driver was simply to deal with the situation in Hong Kong, with the timing being coincidental and inflamed nationalism being just a beneficial side-effect. Whatever the reason, their decision clearly illustrates how little Chinese leaders care about geopolitical or economic costs when compared to political imperatives of strengthening internal control. Thus, the hard reality is that foreign pressure on China regarding on Hong Kong will only strengthen the CCP’s domestic position, if it isn’t well thought-out.

很难说中共国领导人在香港引入国家安全法,是否是专门为了对抗外国批评、煽动民族主义情绪,或者主要驱动因素是为了处理香港局势,而时机非常巧合,煽动民族主义变成一个有益的副作用。不管什么原因,他们的决定清楚地表明,与加强内部控制的政治必要性相比,中共国领导人对地缘政治或经济成本的关心和理解少的可怜。所以真正的事实表明如果西方国家对中共国的外交政策不深思熟虑,一味的对香港施压只会强化中共在国内的地位。

What does this mean for U.S. and Western policymakers? First of all, a thorough examination of Chinese public opinion, either through surveys or social media analysis, is vital in charting the right path and should be used to generate ideas about how to engage with the Chinese public. The obsession with imposing costs and “not letting China get away with it easily” ignores the entire domestic political landscape and simply assumes that the CCP leadership is driven by a combination of ideology (regarding the desire for stronger control) and realpolitik (regarding the use of a simple cost-benefit analysis of economic and diplomatic consequences). It ignores any political motivations driving the Chinese leadership’s decisions.

这对美国西方决策者意味着什么?首先,通过调查或社交媒体分析,彻底审查中共国公众舆论,对于美国和西方规划正确的道路至关重要,以此来推理应该如何与中共国公众接触,并警醒他们。简单地痴迷于在经济成本上的惩罚和"不让中共国轻易逃脱贸易责任"忽视了整个中共国内的政治格局,只是假设中共领导层是由意识形态(关于加强控制欲)和现实政治(关于使用简单的成本回报的经济理论和外交后果的成本效益分析)相结合而驱动。它无视任何推动中共国领导层决策的国内政治动机。

中共媒体对《香港安全法》的解释

Unless the United States is willing to impose devastating costs on China or even go to war, this move cannot be undone. Meanwhile, all these measures to punish China and drive up the costs of this decision aren’t helping Hong Kong, but they are strengthening the CCP’s narrative of “foreign hostile forces” trying to split Hong Kong and create chaos in China. If U.S. policymakers are honest when they claim that the Party, not the Chinese people, is their real enemy, then strengthening its domestic position by driving the Chinese people and the CCP closer together is a huge mistake. Right now, the United States is focusing too much on measures that would punish China (or even worse, Hong Kong) and too little on how to engage Chinese citizens and win them over. Rhetoric is also important – how many statements critical of the national security legislation began by stating, “We believe Hong Kong is and must always remain a part of China.”

除非美国愿意给中共国带来经济上毁灭性的打击,甚至发动战争,否则这一举动是无法消除的。与此同时,所有这些惩罚中共国和推高这一决定成本的措施,对香港没有帮助,它们正在加强中共关于"外国敌对势力"试图分裂香港、在中国制造混乱的叙述。如果美国决策者在声称中共共产党,而不是中共国人民是他们的真正敌人时是诚实的,那么通过把中共国人民和中共拉近距离来加强中共的国内地位,是一个巨大的错误。现在,美国过于关注惩罚中共国(甚至更糟的是香港)的措施,而很少关注如何让中共国公民参与进来并赢得他们支持。修辞也很重要——有多少批评国家安全立法的言论一开始是说,"我们相信香港是并且必须永远是中国的一部分"。

Because of the Great Firewall, but also because of neglect, the Chinese public has largely been abandoned to CCP propaganda. The U.S. and its allies are thus caught between a rock and a very hard place: Do nothing and the Party leadership gets its way; attack “China” and it might drive up nationalism and strengthen support for the CCP. This dilemma pertains to more issues than simply Hong Kong. Some in China undoubtedly see beyond the propaganda and understand that Hong Kong’s struggle is about freedom, not separatism. Others might not necessarily trust the official narrative, but still worry about Chinese sovereignty over Hong Kong and how the United States might have malign intentions. Yet many who simply do not have access to fair, unbiased information have been influenced by Party propaganda, and believe that Hong Kong “separatists” and “foreign hostile forces” need to be dealt with, which the CCP is now doing. This is a reality that the United States and many other countries seem to have almost no interest in addressing. Yet simply ignoring it will not make it go away.

由于中共强大的防火墙,也因为国际社会对中共内外宣的长期忽视,美国及其盟国陷入进退两难的境地:不惩罚中共,中共的领导就会走自己的路;攻击"中共国",可能会掀起中共国的民族主义,强化公众对中共的支持。这种两难处境涉及的问题,不仅仅是香港。毫无疑问,中共国有些人在宣传之外看到,香港是为自由而战,而不是搞分裂主义。其他人可能不一定相信官方的说法,但仍担心中共国对香港的主权受到威胁,以及美国可能不怀好意。然而,许多根本无法获得公平、公正信息的人,却受到党内宣传的影响,认为需要处理香港"分裂分子"和"外国敌对势力",而中共现在正这样做。这是一个现实,美国和许多其他国家似乎没有兴趣解决这一问题。然而,仅仅忽略它并不会让它消失。

Fighting for freedom is important in this struggle for global supremacy between the United States and China, but if the Chinese people end up seeing Hong Kong through a purely nationalist lens, it will only sabotage the larger fight for freedom in China. Foreign governments, and even Hong Kong protesters, have to take all these nuances into account when deciding the next steps. They must think carefully about how to counter CCP propaganda and break its monopoly on shaping the domestic narrative. If not, the United States and the West might end up unintentionally helping Xi and the Party, while still losing Hong Kong.

在中美争夺全球霸权的斗争中,争取自由是重要的,但如果中共国人民最终从纯粹的民族主义角度看待香港,只会破坏在中国争取自由的更大斗争。外国政府,甚至香港的抗议者,在决定下一步行动时,必须考虑到所有这些细微差别。他们必须仔细考虑如何对抗中共的宣传,打破其在塑造国内新闻上的垄断。如果不是,美国和西方可能最终无意间帮助习近平和共产党,同时仍然失去香港。

Andrei Lungu is president of The Romanian Institute for the Study of the Asia-Pacific (RISAP).

安德烈·隆古是罗马尼亚亚太研究所(RISAP)的主席。

编辑:【喜马拉雅战鹰团】Edited by:【Himalaya Hawk Squad】