The State of Las Vegas Real Estate Jan 2017
By Roy Cooke
Las Vegas is continuing to rebound slowly from the Great Recession. New companies are moving in, the casinos business is improving, and new construction is booming. All which makes the job market much better. Additionally, retirees, moving to an exciting, low cost environment, are starting to move here again in droves. And an NFL football team is likely to be coming to Entertainment City!
Las Vegas’s housing inventory is down, spurring additional new home building. But mortgage Interest rates are up and predicted to go higher. Altos Research, a Real Estate research firm currently lists Las Vegas as a seller’s advantage market.
Home pricing trends are inching upwards. That said, statistics that emphasize the median sales price as the baseline factor tend to overstate appreciation. A home’s appreciation is accurately determined by comparing similar homes, and adjusting for differing amenities and sales components. Foreclosures and short sales are still available in the marketplace, but their numbers are significantly reduced.
While still historically low, interest rates have risen to between 4-4.5%. More importantly, the Fed has indicated it wants to continue to raise rates in the next two years. While a rise in interest rates tends to soften prices, other factors still apply, and the inclusive cost of a home includes the terms of the loan as well as price (Which are likely to still increase). If you’re planning on buying a home on a mortgage in the next couple of years, sooner is likely to be MUCH better than later, particularly if you plan on living in the home for a long while. An additional concern regarding interest rates is the how the rise in rates will affect the rates for those with adjustable mortgages.
Buying investment properties can generally net you around a 4-6% cash on cash return. You’ll gain additional value should the property further appreciate. Holistically, it can be a good investment. And good investments are hard to find these days.
If you’re thinking of selling, this might be the right time before interest rates increase further and our sellers’ market loses its luster. There should be a flood of buyers trying to get into the housing market before rates increase further.
If you or any of your friends and family are thinking about buying or selling Real Estate in Las Vegas, or if you just want to chat about any Real Estate issues you are having, please call Roy and Misty Cooke at 702-376-1515 or you can reach Roy via e-mail at RoyCooke123@gmail.com
Playing the AK
By Roy Cooke
AK is a tricky hand to play in no-limit. Play it passively, and you can put yourself in some tough spots post-flop when you miss, miss out on fold equity when you would have won had you played aggressively, or lose value when it has the best of the situation.
Played aggressively, it can often have good fold equity and good value when called. But it sucks when an opponent has KK or AA and you’ve put a ton of money in. In multi-raised pots, it can be an all-in, call, or fold proposition. The right play is highly dependent on your opponent’s range, the money already in the pot, and the effective stack sizes.
AK against a range of AA, KK, AKs and AKo is about 63-37 against. Add QQ to your opponent’s range, and it only changes around 2% to 61-39. That’s because QQ and AK are close to a coin flip. Include JJ and it’s only about 60-40. But add AQ, suited and offsuit, and it goes to 50-50. Any opponent’s wider range than AQ+ and JJ+ makes AK playable for stacks. Your opponent’s range gains slight value with the addition of pairs in his range, but the increase is slight and it’s a fair assumption that if he calls with pairs he likely will call wider with non-paired hands. Plus, if your opponent is going to be calling large bets and shoves with medium pairs, you’re going to destroy him in the similarly played scenarios when you hold a bigger pair.
All that said, AK is going to be in huge trouble when your opponents’ range is AA or KK. You’re over a 4-1 underdog in those spots. With opponents with a very tight multiple-raising range (3-bets+) that ONLY includes AA, or KK, AK can be folded as long as there isn’t significant money already in the pot to overcome those odds. If you add AK to their range, you’re still about 63-37 underdog.
Generally, it takes multiple raises to determine that AK may be up against AA or KK and by that time, there is significant money in the pot. The correct play is determined by what other hands may be in your opponent’s range, what portion of that range he may fold, the effective stack size and how much money is in the pot.
Yes that’s a lot a lot to calculate and is part of what makes AK such a difficult hand to play. Each circumstance is going to have differing elements. And you need to understand the concepts and odds to formulate the correct play. It’s important because it comes up often in NL.
And if you do that correctly, you’ll get better value out of your AK.