Loading

Covid-19 大流行:自負者無知 【中英對照翻譯】

來源:ZeroHedge, February 18, 2020

作者:Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog

新聞翻譯:海闊天空;PR:Grace

評論:海闊天空

簡評:本文作者苦口婆心地勸導西方社會,要高度重視Covid-19大流行可能帶來的巨大傷害,千萬不要因為自己的自負帶來無知,給自己和家庭帶來無可輓回的傷害。對於作者來說,想要破解的是自負者的「魔法思維」和「幸運者偏差」。然而,作者不知道是否意識到中共長期以來對西方媒體的持續滲透,是否意識到西方世界那些彬彬有禮的紳士、淑女早已經被假媒體、假新聞帶偏了路?

除了爆料革命和Gnews陣地,西方世界要想一窺中國真相,真是難上又難。

爆料革命之前,你知道新疆建了集中營,有兩百萬維吾爾人被圈在集中營里嗎?

爆料革命之前,你知道中共在香港秘密執法,香港早就喪失了其半自治地位嗎?

爆料革命之前,你知道海航是中共國的情報部門嗎?海航在國際社會的瘋狂擴張,其實是中共一國之力在支持嗎?

爆料革命之前,你知道什麼是藍金黃,什麼是西方社會的沈默力量嗎?

……

中國人不知道,外國人也不知道。

中共國不惜一切代價,投入重金拿下媒體,給全世界的人民編織了一張謊言的天羅地網,所以西方社會後知後覺,面對武漢疫情這麼與自身利益休戚相關的事情,都能偏見、自大。可悲、可嘆!

Covid-19 Pandemic: The Complacent Are Clueless

Covid-19大流行:自负者无知

The eventual price of substituting magical thinking and survivorship bias for actual evidence will be far higher than the complacent realize.

那些自負的人遠遠沒有意識到,用「魔法思維」和「幸存者偏差」取代真實證據的最終代價。

Here’s a sampling of complacent assertions being made about the COVID-19 virus as if they were certitudes:

  • It’s no worse than a bad cold.
  • It’s less deadly than a normal flu.
  • You can’t catch it unless you’re in sustained close contact with a carrier.
  • Carriers are only contagious for 14 days. After that, you’re home free.
  • A vaccine is just around the corner.
  • The Chinese government has it under control.
  • Only 2,000 people have died, it's no big deal.
  • The few cases in other countries are being managed, and it will soon disappear.
  • The pandemic will fade away by April due to rising temperatures.
  • China's GDP will only take a 1% hit, and global growth will only drop 0.25%.

以下是關於COVID-19病毒的一些自鳴得意者的斷言,它們似乎是確信無疑的:

  • 這不比重感冒更嚴重。
  • 它沒有普通流感那麼致命。
  • 你不可能感染它,除非你與攜帶者持續密切接觸。
  • 攜帶者只有14天的傳染性。之後,你就自由了。
  • 一種疫苗即將問世。
  • 中國政府已經控制住了它。
  • 只有2000人死亡,這沒什麼大不了的。
  • 其他國家的少數病例正在得到控制,很快就會消失。
  • 由於氣溫上升,大流行將在4月消失。
  • 中國GDP只會受到1%的衝擊,全球經濟增長只會下降0.25%。

Interestingly, there is no large-scale, credible data to support any of these claims. But the complacent are not just falling for false claims being passed off as “facts” rather than what they really are—magical thinking—they’re making a much larger error known as Survivorship Bias.

有趣的是,沒有大規模、可信的數據支持這些說法。但那些自鳴得意的人並不僅僅是相信那些被當作「事實」而不是真相——神奇的想法——的虛假聲明,他們正在犯一個更大的錯誤,即生存偏差。

The complacent are focusing on the few who have been tested for the virus, not the millions who haven’t been tested.

自負者關注的是少數經過病毒檢測的人,而不是數百萬沒有經過檢測的人。

The complacent are focusing on the accurate tests, not the many carriers who tested negative or the healthy people incorrectly tagged by false positive tests. The complacent are overlooking the fact that multiple tests are needed to confirm and even multiple tests can fail.

自負者關注的是準確的檢測,而不是許多檢測結果為陰性的攜帶者或被假陽性檢測錯誤標記的健康人。自滿的人忽略了一個事實,即需要多個測試來確認,甚至多個測試都可能失敗。

The complacent are focusing on the few who went to the hospital to get tested and treated, not the multitudes who did not go to a doctor or hospital (for a variety of reasons).

自負者關注的是那些去醫院接受檢測和治療的少數人,而不是那些因為各種原因而不去看醫生或不去醫院的大多數人。

The complacent are focusing on the few carriers who have been forcibly hauled off by Chinese police and not the many who have wisely hidden away from prying eyes.

自負者關注的是少數幾名被中國警方強行帶走的攜帶者,而不是那些明智地避開窺視者視線的攜帶者。

The complacent are focusing on the few facilities with test kits, not on the multitude of clinics which do not have test kits.

自負者關注的是少數幾家有檢測包的診所,而不是大量沒有檢測包的診所。

The complacent are focusing on the few who have been identified as carriers in other nations, not the asymptomatic carriers who have not been identified because 1) they have no symptoms and thus no reason to get tested and 2) they chose not to go to a doctor or hospital despite having symptoms.

自負者專注於少數幾個在其他國家被確認為攜帶者,而不是沒有被確認的無症狀攜帶者,因為1)他們沒有症狀,因此沒有理由得到測試和2)儘管有症狀,他們選擇不去看醫生或不去醫院。

In effect, the complacent are focusing solely on the few carriers who are symptomatic and have been tested, not on the much larger number of asymptomatic carriers who have not been tested. The complacent are ignoring the highly contagious nature of COVID-19, and the impossibility of controlling a virus that can be spread by asymptomatic carriers for up to 24 days.

實際上,那些自鳴得意的人只關注少數有症狀並經過檢測的攜帶者,而不是大量沒有經過檢測的無症狀攜帶者。自負的人忽視了COVID-19的高度傳染性,也忽視了控制一種可由無症狀攜帶者傳播長達24天的病毒的可能性。

The complacent are assuming 100% of all carriers outside China have come forward and been identified as carriers via tests, when the reality is asymptomatic carriers don’t even know they are infected and contagious.

自負的人想當然地認為,中國以外的所有攜帶者都已100%通過檢測被確定為攜帶者,而實際情況是,沒有症狀的攜帶者甚至不知道自己已經感染並具有傳染性。

The complacent are assuming every healthcare facility in China has test kits in such abundance that they can test suspected carriers three times to confirm the diagnosis, when the reality is test kits are scarce and one test is not enough to make a reliable assessment. Carriers can test negative, positive and then negative.

自負的人認為,中國的每一家醫療機構都擁有充足的檢測工具,他們可以對疑似攜帶者進行三次檢測,以確認診斷結果,而現實情況是,檢測工具稀缺,一次檢測不足以做出可靠的評估。攜帶者可以檢測出陰性、陽性和陰性。

The complacent are assuming casual contact isn’t enough to catch the virus while a rising tide of cases confirm that brief, casual contact is enough to get the virus.

自負的人認為偶然接觸不足以感染病毒,而越來越多的病例證實,短暫的偶然接觸足以感染病毒。

The complacent are assuming 100% of symptomatic carriers will go to the hospital to be tested and treated, when an unknown but consequential number of symptomatic carriers are fearful of what will be done to them and their families by authorities, so they hide from prying neighbors and authorities.

自負的人認為,100%有症狀的病毒攜帶者會去醫院接受檢測和治療,而數量未知但數量可觀的有症狀的病毒攜帶者擔心當局會對他們和他們的家人採取什麼措施,所以他們會躲避窺探的鄰居和當局。

The complacent are assuming that asking people if they recently visited China or hosted a visitor from China will identify 100% of the asymptomatic carriers, when there is already proof that asymptomatic carriers have caught the virus from others: they did not visit China or have any known contact with anyone who came from China. They caught the virus from an intermediary who didn’t even know they were infected.

當已有證據表明無症狀攜帶者既沒有訪問過中國,也沒有與任何來自中國的人有過任何已知的聯繫,但已經感染了別人的病毒。他們從一個甚至不知道他們被感染的中間人那裡感染了病毒。然而自負者假設詢問人們最近是否訪問過中國或接待過來自中國的訪客,就會確定100%的無症狀攜帶者。

The complacent are looking at cases and carriers that are known, not the cases and carriers which are unknown. Since asymptomatic carriers can spread the pathogen, the majority of carriers remain unknown. Since not every symptomatic carrier chooses to go to the hospital, many cases remain unknown.

自負者關注的是已知的案例和攜帶者,而不是未知的案例和攜帶者。由於無症狀帶菌者可傳播病原體,大多數帶菌者仍不為人所知。由於並不是每個有症狀的攜帶者都選擇去醫院,許多病例仍然未知。

In sum, the complacent are clueless. The eventual price of substituting magical thinking and survivorship bias for actual evidence will be far higher than the complacent realize. Playing games with statistics and high finance will not limit the spread of the virus or limit its profound economic impact.

總之,自負者是愚蠢的。用「魔法思維」和「幸存者偏差」取代真實證據的最終代價,將遠遠高於那些沾沾自喜的人所意識到的那麼大。玩弄統計數據和高額融資的把戲不會限制病毒的傳播,也不會限制其深遠的經濟影響。

編輯:【喜馬拉雅戰鷹團】