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川普总统应该采取更激进的反共姿态以赢得大选 【中英对照翻译】

新闻来源:零对冲

作者:Tyler Durden

翻译/简评:毛毛猫猫

校对: Roberts

简评:

中共国病毒蔓延全球,给世界经济造成严重冲击。虽然川普总统及早的采取了控制疫情蔓延的措施,但随着中共病毒在美国的扩散,美国经济不可避免的受到严重伤害。经济停摆,失业率上升,尤其对美国平民阶层的冲击尤为严重,这一情况如果不能得到有效控制,会严重影响以打经济牌为主导的川普总统的竞选连任。加之中共病毒对美中贸易谈判成果的不确定性,何时重新启动经济,如何应对疫情带来的美中外交危机此时显得尤为重要,对中共国采取继续激进的姿态是赢得大选的必要手段。

原文:

Why A New Diplomatic Crisis With China Is Critical For Trump If He Wants To Be Re-elected

为什么说一场与中国新的外交危机对川普的再次当选至关重要

Amid all the discussion of whether (or not) it is time to reopen the economy, and take the potential risk of a second wave of infections and deaths resulting in what could be a far more devastating second shutdown, one overlooked angle on the Corona-lockdowns as pointed out by Nordea's FX strategist Andreas Steno Larsen, is that it emphasizes the already growing barriers between the "Elite" and the "Workers."

在所有关于是否是时候重启经济的讨论中,人们把焦点都集中在是否应该承担由第二波感染和死亡所导致的更具有破坏性的二次停工的潜在风险; 但Nordea公司的外汇策略师Andreas Steno Larsen指出了一个被忽略的视角:就是这一讨论让人们更加注意到了美国的“精英阶层”和“平民阶层”之间现存的鸿沟正在变得越来越大。

In his latest FX weekly observations, Larsen writes that while "the big cities are the main epicenters (also per capita) of the Covid-19 virus, containment measures have been forced upon entire states and countries." As a result, regions with low density have been faced with the same kind of measures as more dense areas, even if these regions haven’t seen a material spread of the virus.

拉森在他最新的每周外汇观察中写道:“虽然大城市是这次Covid-19病毒爆发的主要地区(从人均上来说也是),但封锁措施是对整个州和国家实施的。其导致的结果是,一些尚未见到病毒实质性传播的,人口密度较低的区域,也要被迫接受与人口密集区域相同的管制措施。”

In other words, "One size fits all, even if density has proven to be maybe the biggest issue when trying to contain the virus spread." This means that in addition to the outsized gains to the elite as a result of the trillions in new stimulus injections which have promptly buoyed capital markets, the current virolocracy could also be seen as "both extraordinary elitist and gentrification-supportive in its nature, since a much larger part of the urban population can work from home etc."

换句话说,“即使已经证明人口密度是考虑制定遏制病毒传播措施的最关键因素”,但在措施的实施阶段也采取的是“无差别对待”。这意味着,除了因迅速注入资本市场的数万亿美元新刺激政策给精英阶层带来的巨额收益外,当前的“病毒支配管控措施”在其本质上可以被视为“非凡的精英阶层与臆想的中产阶层”的混合体,因为更大一部分的城市人口现在都可以在家中工作了。”

Expanding on this argument, Larsen notes that "workers lives matters" has seen tailwind in important swing states such as Michigan as most of the spread has been seen around Detroit, while the less dense parts of the state haven’t seen any material spread of the virus. The movement argues that the big cities are relatively better off in the lockdowns, and that less dense areas should never have been forced to close the economy anyway. And as the Nordea strategist writes, "it is KEY for The Donald to win over such “movements” if he wants to triumph in the election later this year."

拉森在扩展他这一论点时指出,一些人口密度较小的州并没有看到任何实质性的蔓延,而人口密集的底特律周边地区已经有了病毒的大爆发,所以一场名为“工人的生活很重要”的运动在像密歇根州这样的重要摇摆州开始发起。参与该运动的成员认为,在封锁期,大城市的居民拥有相对较好的生活条件,而那些人口密度较少的边缘地区的经济活动绝不应该被迫关闭。正如拉森所写的那样,“如果川普想在今年晚些时候的选举中获胜,赢得类似“工人的生活很重要”这样的“运动”的参与者的选票是关键。”

The problem is that neither Nordea, nor the Fed, think the economy will be in a good shape by then, which is why The Donald needs something else to convince his base, in particular since wage growth could be about to fall of a cliff.

问题在于,无论是Nordea公司还是美联储,都不认为未来的一段时间的美国的经济状况会很好。这就是为什么川普总统需要别的理由来说服支持他的基础选民的原因,特别是在未来的某个时段,工资增长可能会跌入低谷。

Indeed, wages are another reason why workers are about to get a double whammy of corona pain: as Larsen continues, core inflation (and wage growth) are cyclical laggards, which means that first

  1. activity comes to a halt,
  2. commodity prices and headline inflation drop,
  3. workers are laid off in size,
  4. wages and prices decelerate or even decline.

拉森在他的观察中继续说道:除病毒带来的痛苦之外,工资也给工人带来打击。核心通货膨胀(和工资增长)是周期性的滞后指标,这意味着,首先

  1. 生产活动已经停止了,
  2. 商品价格和整体通胀下降,
  3. 失业人数增加,
  4. 工资和物价的增长减缓甚至下降。

Nordea believes that we are probably in between phase three and four now, and why news on prices and wages will be the next to surprise negatively during H2-2020 and in to 2021 (in Q1 and Q2 activity data has been the negative surprise).

Nordea公司认为我们现在可能处于疫情管制的第三和第四阶段之间,关于物价和工资的新闻在2020年下半年到2021年年初都将是非常负面的(2021年的第一季度和第二季度的经济活动数据也将是负面的)。

2020年下半年核心通胀率(和工资增长)将开始令人失望

So faced with record unemployment coupled with growing labor class anger, Trump's weapon of choice to win over the workers again, will be an escalation of his China-bashing strategy in combination with renewed isolationism.

因此,面对创纪录的失业率以及日益加剧的劳工阶级的愤怒,川普总统选择再次赢得工人的武器将是进一步打击中国并与将之孤立的战略相结合。

According to Nordea Trump deeming Chinese equities a "national security risk" is not really newsworthy since the EU has been talking about the same thing for a while – though, mostly with a focus on blocking potential hostile Chinese take-overs of Euro area companies, but it suddenly seemed to revive the focus on geopolitical risks on the other side of the Corona mess.

根据Nordea公司的分析,川普总统将中概股视为“国家安全风险”并不是危言耸听,因为欧盟一直在讨论同一件事已经有一段时间了(那时欧盟关注的重点是采取措施防止欧盟企业被中共国恶意收购)。但是突然之间,由于这次疫情引起的对地缘政治风险的关注甚嚣尘上。

And while the US/China trade deal has been stone-dead for months already (as it was from the outset), so that is in itself not exciting, no-one had an interest in saying so until after the US election. The corona virus - and the coming elections - have offered Trump a chance to "reveal" that the trade deal is 100% off, and to take a renewed China aggressive stance into the election instead.

尽管美中贸易协定已经从几个月前开始就已经处于停滞状态(从一开始就如此),这个信息本身并不令人兴奋,直到美国大选之后,没有人会对这个话题再感兴趣了。中共国病毒的蔓延,以及即将举行的美国大选,为川普总统提供了一个“揭示”该贸易协定已100%打了折扣了和在选举中采取更进一步的激姿态对抗中共国的机会。

This inevitable deterioration in diplomatic relations, as Larsen concludes, is bad for Asian FX (versus USD), and risk assets and equities in general, and why Rabobank earlier today said that "There Is One Key Thing To Watch Today: The Yuan."

拉森总结说,外交关系的这种不可避免的恶化,不利于亚洲货币(对美元)以及风险资产和股票,也解释了为什么荷兰合作银行在今天早些时候说“今天只有一个关键的事情要关注:那就是人民币。”

直到三月崩溃前,美元/人民币一直是全球风险的领头羊

As Larsen concludes, "Before the March melt-up in markets, USD/CNY was THE global bellwether for risk appetite, and it may very well return as such very soon. You should buy USD/CNY (and sell risk assets) on tariff threats."

正如拉森总结的那样:“在三月份市场崩溃之前,美元/人民币是全球风险偏好的领头羊,它可能很快就会回归。你应该在美中贸易战期间购买美元/人民币(并出售风险资产)。”

编辑【喜马拉雅战鹰团】