作者：Gordon G. Chang
Gordon G. Chang是《中國的崩潰》作者和蓋茨通研究所傑出資深研究員
March 17, 2020 at 5:00 am
翻译：TCC
简评：TCC
PR：海阔天空
引言：中共這次真的向美國發動了致命的珍珠港事件，正在向死往之路快速奔跑。歷史告訴我們與美國挑戰者終將滅亡，正義必戰勝邪惡。這次由中共國傳開造成世界大流行的疫情，中共不但沒道歉，至少在道義上，還用大外宣對外誣指是美國釋放的病毒。真是做賊的喊捉賊，厚顏無恥。這完全不是中國人的行為。現在美國漸漸覺醒了，中共的末日也掐指而算。所以文章指出，中國的真正疾病不是冠狀病毒，而是那喪心病狂的共產黨。
China, as we now know, allowed the coronavirus to spread for six weeks in December and January before President Xi Jinping publicly acknowledged the disease. So, it is no surprise that Americans — and the Chinese people, who are now demanding fundamental political change — realize that the real disease is communism. Pictured: Communist Party "community volunteers" secure the entrance of a residential area as they take the temperature of a man on a street in Beijing, China on February 23, 2020. (Photo by Nicolas Asfouri/AFP via Getty Images)
眾所周知，在習近平主席公開承認該病之前，中共國在12月和1月允許冠狀病毒傳播六週。因此，毫不奇怪的是，美國人以及現在正在要求根本性政治變革的中國人民意識到真正的疾病是共產主義。圖為：共產黨“社區志願者”於2020年2月23日在中國北京的一條街道居民區的入口，對一名男子進行體溫測量。（照片由Nicolas Asfouri / AFP通過Getty Images攝影）
China's Real Disease: Not Coronavirus
中國的真正疾病：不是冠狀病毒
Last July, five American analysts who have been consistently wrong told us "China is not an enemy."
去年7月，五名一直犯錯的美國分析家告訴我們“中共國不是敵人”。
Actually, this time they were technically right. China's communism is not an enemy. It is the enemy.
實際上，這次他們在技術上是正確的。中國的共產主義不是一個敵人，而是唯一的敵人。
After the coronavirus pandemic subsides, Americans should not forget Beijing's malicious campaign against their country.
在冠狀病毒大流行消退之後，美國人不應該忘記北京針對自己國家的惡意行為。
For more than a month, the central government's foreign ministry and the Communist Party's Global Times have been trying to tar the Trump administration. The campaign culminated in a series of tweets from rising Beijing star Zhao Lijian, foreign ministry spokesman and deputy director general of the ministry's Information Department.
一個多月以來，中共中央政府的外交部和中共的《环球時報》一直在試圖對川普政府抹黑。這場運動在外交部發言人兼新聞部新聞司副司長新秀趙立堅發布的一系列推文下達到了高峰。
On March 12, in a tweet, he accused U.S. officials of being "immoral." Hours before, he had tweeted that "patient zero" was in the U.S. and suggested that the U.S. Army had "brought the epidemic to Wuhan" -- intimating that America was conducting germ warfare.
在3月12日，他的一條推文中指責美國官員“不道德”。在數小時前，他在推特上說“零號病人”在美國，並暗示美軍“把這種流行病帶給了武漢”，暗示美國正在進行細菌生物戰。
Also that day, foreign ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying, Zhao's boss, twisted testimony of Robert Redfield, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, to try to show that the coronavirus outbreak had started in America.
在同一天，外交部發言人趙的老闆華春瑩歪曲了疾病預防控制中心主任羅伯特·雷德菲爾德的證詞，以證明冠狀病毒的爆發已經在美國開始。
President Donald J. Trump, in his Rose Garden press conference the next day, March 13, downplayed the overtly hostile messages. He first noted his conversations with Chinese ruler Xi Jinping and then said, referring to Chinese leaders, "they know where it came from."
第二天，在3月13日川普總統在玫瑰花園舉行的新聞發布會上淡化了這些公開的敵對信息。他首先提到了與中共國統治者習的談話，然後在談到中國領導人時說：“他們知道我言下之意。”
Actually, it is worse if Chinese officials in fact knew where the coronavirus originated. In this case, these officials, by going out of their way to blame the U.S., were demonstrating once again the inherent hostility of their system to America.
實際上，如果中共國官員實際上知道冠狀病毒的起源，那就更糟。在這種情況下，這些官員竭盡全力責備美國，再次證明了他們的制度對美國根深蒂固的敵意。
Unfortunately, Beijing cannot be deterred. The U.S. State Department on March 13 summoned Chinese Ambassador Cui Tiankai to protest the foreign ministry's disinformation campaign. Despite the warning, the Chinese ambassador to South Africa, Lin Songtian, on March 16 continued to promote the coronavirus-not-originated-in-China theory, with a tweet.
不幸的是，北京無法阻止這事。美國國務院於3月13日召喚中共國大使崔天凱抗議外交部的虛假宣傳活動。儘管發出了警告，但中共國駐南非大使林松田於3月16日繼續通過推文宣傳冠狀病毒不起源於中國的說法。
From here, it looks as if relations are only going to deteriorate. For one thing, Beijing's official Xinhua News Agency has been threatening to cut off "medical supplies," "plunging" America into a "mighty sea of coronavirus."
從這裡看來，兩國關係似乎只會繼續惡化。一方面，北京官方的新華社一直威脅要切斷“醫療用品”，“使”美國陷入“強大的冠狀病毒之深淵”。
Beijing has, according to Trump's trade advisor Peter Navarro, already nationalized one American factory making medical masks. Moreover, Fox Business Network's Maria Bartiromo on air repeatedly said the Chinese forced at least one ship carrying masks, gloves, and other protective gear to the United States to return to China.
根據川普貿易顧問彼得·納瓦羅（Peter Navarro）的說法，北京已經將一家生產醫用口罩的美國工廠國有化。此外，福克斯商業網絡公司的瑪麗亞·巴蒂羅莫（Maria Bartiromo）反复廣播說，中共還強迫至少一艘載有運往美國口罩，手套和其他防護裝備的船隻返回中共國。
Beijing's threat to cut off supplies and harm Americans will only encourage the U.S. to cut trade with China, or, more precisely, to not allow trade to return to pre-coronavirus levels. Reducing commerce, some believe, is the only long-term solution for the U.S. as Chinese communists have tried to use their central role as a manufacturer to spread totalitarianism and advance other geopolitical goals anathema to the Western democracies.
北京威脅要切斷供應和傷害美國人，這只會導致美國削減與中共的貿易，或者更確切地說，是不允許貿易回到冠狀病毒之前的狀態了。有人認為，減少商業貿易是美國唯一的長期解決方案，因為中國共產黨試圖利用自己作為製造國的核心角色，傳播極權主義，推進西方民主國家所憎惡的其它地緣政治目標。
The cutting of links will still leave trade at high levels, at least at first. Nonetheless, the large volume of commerce, often called the "ballast" of China-U.S. ties, probably will not stabilize relations.
至少在起初，切斷聯繫仍將使貿易保持較高水平。但是，大量的商業活動通常被稱為中美的“鎮流器”，很可能再不會穩定關係了。
"Does trade increase or decrease the likelihood of conflict?" Samuel Huntington, the late Harvard political scientist, asked in The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order. "The assumption that it reduces the probability of war between nations is, at a minimum, not proven, and much evidence exists to the contrary."
哈佛大學已故政治學家塞繆爾·亨廷頓（Samuel Huntington）在《文明的衝突與世界秩序的重建》中問道， “貿易會增加還是減少發生衝突的可能性？” “它可至少降低國家間戰爭可能性的假設尚未得到證實，而且相反的證據卻不勝枚舉。”
High levels of trade did not prevent the First World War, he pointed out in that landmark book. As Huntington, building on the work of others, noted, what is important is expectation. "Economic interdependence fosters peace," he wrote, "only 'when states expect that high trade levels will continue into the foreseeable future.'" If, however, trade partners "do not expect high levels of interdependence to continue, war is likely to result."
在他那本具有里程碑意義的書中還指出，高層次的貿易並不能阻止第一次世界大戰。正如亨廷頓在其他人的研究基礎上指出的那樣，期望是重要的。他寫道：“只有'當各國期望高貿易水平將在可預見的未來繼續時，經濟上的相互依存才能促進和平。'”但是，如果貿易夥伴“不期望高水平的相互依存繼續下去，戰爭便會發生。”
Trump expects trade between the two nations to increase, saying on March 13 that China will be buying $250 billion more products pursuant to the Phase One trade deal signed January 15. Beijing in that agreement generally promised within a two-year period to increase purchases of U.S. goods and services by $200 billion over 2017 levels.
在3月13日，川普預計兩國之間的貿易會增加，且稱中共國將根據1月15日簽署的第一階段貿易協議購買2500億美元的產品。北京在該協議中普遍承諾在兩年內增加對美國商品和服務的購買。這與2017年相比，增加了2,000億美元。
Trump's optimism is not shared in Beijing, however. China, using the epidemic as an excuse, is now pushing to change the agreement by deferring its purchase obligations, the heart of the arrangement as far as the U.S. is concerned.
但是，川普的樂觀在北京並未得到支持。中共國現在以這新冠流行病為藉口，來延緩推遲其購買的義務來改變協議，這是美國應該關注安排的核心。
The Global Times notes that the pandemic inhibits Chinese demand for American goods, but that is not necessarily a good reason for relief from the terms of the deal.
《環球時報》指出，這種大流行抑制了中共國對美國商品的需求，但這並不一定是解除貿易條約的好理由。
Why not? Xi Jinping, after all, knew about the coronavirus epidemic long before he authorized the signing of the deal in the White House. In February, he said he had chaired a meeting of the Party's Politburo Standing Committee on January 7 in which he issued orders to contain the epidemic. Xi's knowledge of the outbreak on January 15 and his push for relief now, therefore, makes him look cynical. In all probability, he had no intention of honoring his side of the bargain from the beginning. Recall that Xi broke his September 2015 pledges to former President Barack Obama not to militarize China's artificial islands and not to hack America for commercial purposes.
為什麼不？畢竟，習在授權在白宮簽署交易之前就知道冠狀病毒的流行。他曾在2月份說，在1月7日的一次中共中央政治局常委會議上發布了遏制這一流行病的命令。因此，習近平對1月15日簽約時對疫情的了解以及現在對救濟的要求使他顯得更加邪惡。很可能這是他從一開始就無意兌現貿易協議的一面。回想一下，習曾違反了2015年9月對前總統巴拉克·奧巴馬（Barack Obama）的承諾，關於不再從事人工島軍事化，以及以商業目的入侵美國。
In any event, this year Sino-U.S. trade will almost certainly decline. Such a delinking would be in line with Trump's stated desire to bring manufacturing back home.
無論如何，今年中美貿易幾乎肯定會下降。這種脫節與川普宣稱要將製造業帶回國內的願望是一致的。
The president has evidently been thinking about these matters for a long time. On July 21, 2017, for instance, he issued his Executive Order on Assessing and Strengthening the Manufacturing and Defense Industrial Base and Supply Chain Resiliency of the United States. The Defense Industrial Base study, as it is known, exposed American vulnerabilities and led to actions to encourage manufacturing to return home. Trump can now use his sweeping powers granted under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act of 1977 to continue this essential process.
總統顯然已經考慮了很長得時間了。例如，2017年7月21日，他發布了《評估和加強美國製造業和國防工業基礎以及供應鏈彈性的行政命令》。眾所周知，國防工業基地的研究揭露了美國的脆弱性，並導致採取了鼓勵製造業回國的行動。川普現在可以利用根據1977年國際緊急經濟權力法授予的廣泛權力繼續這一重要政策。
Of course, war does not inevitably result when countries "delink," "decouple," or "disengage" their economies. Yet China and the U.S. are also moving apart as Americans become wary of an increasingly belligerent Chinese state, one that already has demonstrated that it has, for instance, little reluctance to injure Americans.
當然，當兩國“脫節”，“脫鉤”或“脫離”經濟時，是不可避免地會導致戰爭。然而，隨著美國人對好戰的中共國保持警惕時，中美兩國關係也正在分崩離析。例如，中共國已經證明不可能不願傷害美國人。
China, as we now know, allowed the coronavirus to spread for six weeks in December and January before Xi publicly acknowledged the disease. So, it is no surprise that Americans — and the Chinese people, who are now demanding fundamental political change — realize that the real disease is communism.
眾所周知，中共國在12月和1月允許冠狀病毒傳播了六個星期，然後習才公開承認該病。因此，毫不奇怪的是，美國人以及現在正在要求根本性政治變革的中國人民意識到真正的疾病是共產主義。
Coronavirus proves that for America and the Free World, China's communism is the enemy -- the one that really counts.
冠狀病毒證明，對於美國和自由世界而言，中國的共產主義是個敵人-一個真正的敵人。
Gordon G. Chang is the author of The Coming Collapse of China and a Gatestone Institute Distinguished Senior Fellow
編輯：【喜馬拉雅戰鷹團】