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中共冠状病毒中觉醒后的美国国家战略应该是什么样子 【中英对照翻译】

作者:: John Poindexter, Robert McFarlane, and Richard Levine / 约翰·波德斯特,罗伯特·麦克法兰,理查德·莱文

消息来源:The FederalList / 联邦党人

翻译/简评:CharlesS

校对:Julia Win

简评

本文与今日刚发表的美国官方对华战略报告有些不同。相比之下,本文比官方的更直接,更细化。它发布在官方版本之前。

容我稍微解读一下本文内容:

首先作者提到了中共是如何发展壮大的——美国的某些人,为了这个巨大的市场利益,选择了无视中共毫无法治的本质。

然后,作者意识到长大的中共开始释放它的野心,不仅是在经济上,而且在软实力上,通过各种渗透与绑架。比如对媒体、影视和新闻行业的绑架,强行施加审查。这些都是中共软实力发展呈现出的一种具有侵略性的“锐实力”。作者在这一点上相当于意识到中共超限战的范畴之一。并且美国软实力也是曾经让美国保持优势地位的核心,中共在“锐实力”上的增加引起了作者的关注。

此外作者还关注的有知识产权盗窃、应对中共冠状病毒疫情假消息等方面的问题。

作者还对中共国的“一带一路”进行了重点关注。他认为在国家战略层面上,“一带一路”事实上是以对外基建为由,一方面转移国内压力,大量的贷款事实上是对中共国内回血;另一方面又以债务违约掠夺目标国的国家资产。基于以上分析,“一带一路”事实上是中共国的致命要害。即阻止“一带一路”,就是阻止中共吸血,阻止对外转移产能过剩矛盾。

在这此疫情的应对上,本文展示出来一种科学的策略改进建议,而不像某国的空话。整体来看,这是对美国国家应急反应框架的建议,其包含生物突发事件的7大类突发事件的处置框架。在流程层面上,建议增加一个直接反馈紧急信息至政府高层的路径,人员上还要求冗余的小队以提出有挑战性的观点,同时建立相应的术语体系,这是标准化的措施。

本文后半部分提出了美国必须做的10件事,并且说:“问题不在于中国人民,也不在于其可以追溯到几千年前的骄傲遗产。问题在于共产主义。”

这里面有与印度、英国等国加强合作的地缘政治战略;也有建立去中心化网络的建议,这也许是打击媒体寡头与邪恶勾结的有力方法。

此外作者也意识到,即使是上世纪,美国也曾经历过两次大瘟疫,但没有哪次像这次中共武汉肺炎那样,已经改变了人们的生活方式。

在目前最受关注的中共武汉肺炎问题上,作者认为必须要对中共报复、追责。并且提出,追责的理由不是因为作为病毒起源地,而是各种有意的虚假消息、不限制国际间旅行等。但在性质层面上作者所说的略有偏颇。这不是渎职,这是故意犯罪。

What U.S. National Strategy Should Look Like In The Wake Of Coronavirus

在中共冠状病毒中觉醒后的美国国家战略应该是什么样子

——If China’s actions in the coronavirus catastrophe offer any window into this communist regime, it is that the threat they represent is unlike anything America has faced.

——如果中共国在冠状病毒灾难中的行动为这个共产主义政权提供了任何窗口,这说明它们所代表的威胁不同于美国所面临的任何一种。

“Come not between the dragon and his wrath,” King Lear enjoined, but this we must do to upend the wrath that has emanated from the most powerful foe America has faced. As terrible as the coronavirus crisis is, we must imagine a world ten or 20 years from now, in which the People’s Republic of China’s nominal gross domestic product is 50 percent larger than that of the United States.

李尔王训诫道:“不要处在巨龙和他的愤怒之中。”但是,我们必须这样做,以颠覆美国面临的最强大敌人所产生的愤怒。 与中共冠状病毒危机一样可怕,我们必须想象一个从现在起的十年或二十年的世界,在这个世界上,中共国名义下国内生产总值比美国大50%。

What power would an unconstrained China wield? What force of arms would they muster to intimidate and to control?

一个不受约束的中共国将发挥什么力量? 他们会鼓动什么武力来威逼和控制?

If China’s actions in the coronavirus catastrophe offer any window into this communist regime’s machinations, deceitfulness, and debasement of human life, it is that the threat they represent is unlike anything America has faced.

如果中共国在冠状病毒灾难中的行动为共产主义政权的阴谋诡计,欺骗和破坏生命提供了任何空档,这说明它们所代表的威胁不同于美国所面临的任何一种。

The Rise of China

中共国的崛起

At the inception of World War II, many strategists conjectured that both Germany and Japan were destined to lose the war; their populations and economies were too small, and their access to raw materials too tenuous, to be able to wage a protracted war against the Allies. Later, the Soviet Union posed a great challenge.

第二次世界大战开始时,许多战略家推测德国和日本注定要输掉这场战争。他们的人口和经济规模太小,而且原材料获取渠道过于狭窄,无法支撑与盟国进行旷日持久的战争。战争之后,苏联引发了巨大的挑战。

Throughout the 1950s and early 1960s, CIA analysts predicted the Soviet economy would surpass America’s. This calculus drove many costly American decisions. Today, America’s GDP is at least 12 times Russia’s. China, however, is seemingly destined to outpace the United States in GDP during the next 20 years. Indeed, China has plausibly already overtaken the United States, if GDP is measured by Purchasing Power Parity (PPP).

在整个1950年代和1960年代初,中央情报局的分析家们预测,苏联的经济将超过美国。这种演算推动了许多昂贵的美国决策。如今,美国的GDP至少是俄罗斯的12倍。然而,在接下来的20年中,中共国似乎注定要超过美国。的确,如果以购买力平价(PPP)衡量GDP,中共国似乎已经超过美国。

It is ironic that four American actions enabled this ascent: first, American scientific aid to end famine in China; second, President Carter’s diplomatic recognition of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and his commitment that the U.S. government engage with elements of the PRC; third, President Clinton’s facilitation of the PRC’s ultimate ascension to membership in the World Trade Organization (WTO) and his expansion of Chinese access to dual-use (civilian/military) technology; fourth, President Obama’s embrace of the PRC as a non-adversarial peer state, which completed the PRC’s envelopment of America’s institutions.

具有讽刺意味的是,美国采取了四项行动来实现这种崛起:首先,美国为结束中共国的饥荒提供了科学援助;第二,卡特总统对中共国(PRC)的外交承认,以及他对美国政府与中共国各方面接触的承诺。第三,克林顿总统为中共国最终加入世界贸易组织(WTO),以及扩大中共国对军民两用技术的获取,提供了便利。第四,奥巴马总统拥抱中共国成为非对抗性的同伴国家,这完成了中共国对美国机构的包围。

On September 25, 2015, the White House released a statement on U.S.-China Economic Relations. It revealed a disastrously misguided course, for the official factsheet noted, “The U.S. side reiterated its commitment to encourage and facilitate exports of commercial high technology items to China for civilian-end users. Both sides commit to continue detailed and in-depth discussion of the export control issues of mutual interest within the U.S.-China High Technology and Strategic Trade Working Group.”

2015年9月25日,白宫发表了关于美中(共)经济关系的声明。它揭示了一个灾难性的错误路线,官方的情况说明称,“美方重申,致力于鼓励和促进向中共国出口,面向民用终端用户的商业高科技产品的承诺。双方承诺将继续在美中(共)高科技与战略贸易工作组内对共同关心的出口管制问题进行详细而深入的讨论。”

More troubling was the Obama administration’s enshrinement of Chinese goals for industry penetration and co-option: “The United States and China commit to limit the scope of their respective national security reviews of foreign investments (for the United States, the CFIUS process) solely to issues that constitute national security concerns, and not to generalize the scope of such reviews to include other broader public interest or economic issues. . . . When an investment poses a national security risk, the United States and China are to use their respective processes to address the risk as expeditiously as possible, including through targeted mitigation rather than prohibition whenever reasonably possible.”

更为令人不安的是,奥巴马政府对中共国的行业渗透和合作选择权寄予厚望(纵容):“中(共)美承诺将各自对外国投资(对于美国,指CFIUS程序)的国家安全审查范围仅限于构成国家安全问题的问题,而不是将此类审查的范围概括为其他更广泛的公共利益或经济问题……。当一项投资构成国家安全风险时,中(共)美两国将利用各自的程序尽快解决这一风险,包括在任何、合理可能的情况下采取有针对性的缓解措施,而不是禁止措施。”

The factsheet also declared portentously, “Once an investment has completed the national security review process of either country, the investment generally should not be subject to review again if the parties close the investment as reviewed under the respective national security review process.”

情况说明书还信誓旦旦地声称:“一旦对投资完成了任何一方的国家安全审查程序,并且当事方按照各自的国家安全审查程序进行审查而关闭了投资,则通常不应再次对该投资进行审查。”

In confronting the present pandemic, fury must be displaced by actions that can alleviate the grave damage loosed on the world. A national strategy must peer into the future, to consider capabilities that must be attained, to meet threats that are unformed, but real.

在面对当前的大流行时,愤怒必须要转化为能够减轻世界上严重损失的行动。 国家战略必须展望未来,考虑必须获得的能力,以应对尚未形成但真实存在的威胁。

The Present Danger

当前的危险

It is logical to assume that after some initial point, Chinese political, military, and intelligence officials realized this outbreak of a new virus could be used to damage the economies of the West and thus facilitate Chinese hegemony. Given China’s history of pandemics, its political establishment must have had planning documents in place to serve the Communist Party of China’s interests, should such a scenario of a novel pandemic unfold. Manipulating data would be central to any such operational plan.

可以合理地假设,在最初的某个时间点上,中共国政治,军事和情报官员意识到,这种新病毒的爆发可以用来破坏西方国家的经济,从而促进中共国的霸权地位。 考虑到中共国的大流行病史,如果这种新型大流行的情况发生了,它的政治机构一定已制定了为中共国共产党利益服务的计划。 操纵数据对于任何此类计划都是至关重要的。

On May 7, the PRC recorded its dead in Hubei Provence, whose capital is Wuhan, at 4,512, out of 4,637 for the entire country. According to Chinese authorities, 125 fatalities occurred in all other provinces, which comprise 1.38 billion people.

5月7日,中共国在省会是武汉的湖北省死亡数字是4,512人,全国有4,637人。 根据中共国当局的数据,在所有其他省份13.8亿人当中发生了125例死亡。

If the virus did experience exponential growth, and doubled every day, in 28 days it should have infected 268 million people. A 1 percent mortality rate would thus result in millions of deaths, not fewer than 5,000. Even if the PRC underreported its losses by a factor of ten or twenty, these figures do not make sense.

如果该病毒确实经历了指数级增长,并且每天都在成倍增长,那么它在28天内应该感染了2.68亿人。 1%的死亡率将导致数百万的死亡,不会少于5,000。 即使中共国将损失少报了十到二十倍,现在这些官方数字也没有任何道理。

Are there scenarios that explain these numbers? One explanation would involve an accidental release from the virology lab at Wuhan that was almost immediately recognized, engendering swift and firm containment procedures within China, but denied to the rest of the world by China’s continuance of international travel from the virus’s point of origin.

有可以合理这些数字的情况吗?一种解释可能包括武汉病毒所的意外泄漏,然后这一事件几乎立即得到识别,从而在中共国境内实施了迅速而牢固的抑制措施,结束。但这种说法因中共国允许该病毒的起源地继续进行国际旅行,而被世界其他地区所否认。

The second scenario is related, but crueler. Given China’s research into biological warfare, it is conceivable that entities within China may have sought a naturally occurring virus that would be just transmissible and virulent enough to cause massive disruption in Western countries, but could be limited and mitigated, given the regime’s foreknowledge, within China. Allied intelligence must determine if either scenario took place.

第二种情况是相关的,但更残酷。鉴于中共国对生物战的研究,可以想象的是,中共国内部的实体可能正在寻找一种天然存在的病毒,这种病毒可以传播并具有足够的毒性,足以在西方国家造成大规模破坏,但是基于该政权的预见,它在中共国内是“可防可控”的。 联合情报部门必须确定发生的是哪一种情况。

The Challenge

挑战

The PRC represents a multidimensional threat that encompasses all aspects of hard and soft power. Hard power is the use of coercion, monetary enticements, and force to attain policy goals; soft power is using attraction and co-option to attain the national interest. Until this pandemic, American soft power seemed destined to remain the dominant force in world affairs even as the PRC surpassed America’s GDP.

中共国代表着多维威胁,涵盖硬实力和软实力的各个方面。硬实力是使用胁迫,金钱诱惑和武力,实现政策目标;软实力正在利用吸引力和选择权来实现国家利益。直到大流行之前,即使中共国超过了美国的GDP,美国的软实力似乎仍注定是世界事务中的主宰力量。

Along with likely future Chinese economic preeminence, America’s national debt and competing priorities will constrain U.S. military power. America’s breadth of soft power was to be the defense against these forces. To withstand Chinese economic might, coupled with near military parity, the United States was to marshal vast reservoirs of soft power, not possessed by other nations.

除了未来可能出现的中共国经济优势外,美国的国债和竞争中的优先事项还将限制美国的军事实力。美国的软实力之广是对这些力量的防御。为了承受中共国的经济实力,再加上军事上几乎力量相当,美国势必调集其他国家没有的庞大软实力库。

Through investment and by direct and indirect pressure, the PRC, in its various forms, has influenced America’s most important media companies.

通过投资以及直接和间接的压力,中共国以各种形式影响着美国最重要的媒体公司。

Our popular culture, free press, and multinational businesses have to this point been liberalizing and democratizing forces, reflecting America’s supremacy in all major forms of soft power. Yet the stability and the endurance of this bulwark must be reconsidered, as the PRC now holds sway over Hollywood and infuses its control and propaganda into our press, businesses, and universities.

到目前为止,我们的流行文化,新闻自由和跨国企业一直是自由和民主的力量,这反映出美国在所有主要形式的软实力中都具有至高无上的地位。然而,由于中共国现在控制好莱坞,并将其控制力和宣传输入到我们的媒体,企业和大学中,因此必须重新考虑这一堡垒的稳定性和持久力。

The PRC works to transmute America’s soft power, which is made possible by appropriating America’s freedoms, laws, and politicians, who are informed by the academy. Strategic purchases of U.S. businesses and the placement of Chinese companies on American stock exchanges and indexes have also given the PRC enormous suasion over the avenues of American soft power.

中共国致力于改变美国的软实力,这是通过分拨美国的自由,法律和从学院里接受信息的政治人物来实现的。对美国企业的战略性收购以及中共国公司在美国证券交易所和指数中的排名,也使中共国对美国软实力之路有了巨大的影响力。

The U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission has reported that as of February 25, 2019 there were 156 Chinese companies listed on the three largest U.S. exchanges. These firms had a combined capitalization of $1.2 trillion. Through investment and by direct and indirect pressure, the PRC, in its various forms, has influenced America’s most important media companies. These media companies, in turn, own major news networks, services, and publishing houses.

美中(共)经济与安全审查委员会报告说,截至2019年2月25日,在美国三大交易所中有156家中共国公司上市。这些公司的总资本为1.2万亿美元。通过投资以及直接和间接的压力,中共国以各种形式影响着美国最重要的媒体公司。这些媒体公司又拥有主要的新闻网络,服务和出版社。

An example of Chinese power in Hollywood is contained in the movie sequel “Top Gun: Maverick.” In the original 1986 film, Maverick’s iconic bomber jacket displayed military patches that included both Japanese and Taiwanese flags. In the new movie, a film made possible through the co-operation of the U.S. Navy, these flags are replaced with meaningless patches rendered in similar colors to obscure what was done. Citing this example, Sen. Ted Cruz has introduced the SCRIPT Act to halt Pentagon assistance to companies whose films are so censored.

中共国在好莱坞的力量体现之一是电影续集《壮志凌云:独行侠》。 在1986年的原始电影中,独行侠的标志性炸弹夹克,展示了包括日本和台湾国旗的军事贴。这部新电影,可能是通过美国海军合作的电影,这些标志被替换为无意义的相近颜色渲染的补丁加以掩盖。 引用这个例子,参议员特德·克鲁兹(Ted Cruz)提出了《 制止审查,恢复诚信,保护电影(SCRIPT)法》,以终止五角大楼对愿意接受如此审查的电影公司的援助。

The PRC’s insertion into Hollywood has a model: until 1940, Hollywood studio films were subjected to German censorship or cancellation so the studios could retain access to the German market. This censorship also affected American films shown not just in Germany, but worldwide.

中共国对好莱坞的介入是一个典范:直到1940年,好莱坞制片厂的电影都受到德国的审查或取消,以便制片厂可以保留进入德国市场的机会。这种审查制度还包含在全球范围内放映的美国电影,而不仅仅是德国内的。

The PRC uses similar mechanisms in today’s Hollywood. Only now, the control exercised by a foreign power has far greater reach, for today’s media conglomerates that own the film and television studios also own the major news networks. To maintain access to the Chinese market for film and television, there exists, if not substantial pressure, the business context to manipulate and to bowdlerize news in America. We now face information warfare on a level never experienced.

在当今的好莱坞,中共国也采用类似的机制。只不过现在,外国势力行使的控制权有更大的影响力,因为拥有影视工作室的当今媒体集团也拥有主要的新闻网络。为了维持进入中共国影视市场的机会,即使不是很大的压力,也存在着操纵和散布美国新闻的商业环境。我们现在面临着前所未有的信息战。

We now face information warfare on a level never experienced.

我们现在面临着前所未有的信息战。

In the years leading up to WWII, strong business relationships with Germany and Japan partly prevented the free countries of the West from acting decisively to forestall German and Japanese aggression; public sentiment to avoid future wars held sway. Now, the economic and business pressures for America and its allies to foreswear meaningful action against the PRC are as great as can be imagined.

在第二次世界大战爆发前的几年中,与德国和日本的牢固商业关系部分阻止了西方自由国家采取果断行动,阻止德国和日本的侵略。 避免对未来战争的公众情绪大行其道。现在,美国及其盟国面临的,使他们不得不放弃对中共国有意义行动的经济和商业压力大到无法想象。

To limit Chinese exploitation and adventurism portends economic strife and the end of a globalist international order that has existed for 50 years. However, if U.S. intelligence services find proof that the PRC knew the virus escaped from its lab, or began in Wuhan some other way, yet locked down travel to other parts of China while permitting international travel from this city, at the time the Communist Party of China prevented essential international fact finding, this state committed what amounts to a war crime.

限制中共国的剥削和冒险主义,预示着经济冲突和已经存在了50年的全球主义国际秩序的终结。 但是,如果美国情报部门找到证据,证明中共国知道该病毒已经从实验室泄漏,或者以其他方式在武汉开始传播,当时限制了往中共国其他地区的旅行,同时却允许该城市进行国际旅行 并且中共国阻止了必要的国际事实调查,那么中共是犯下了战争罪。

If this be proved so, then inaction is an invitation for repetition or mimicry. Without a response measured to this assault, we will show weakness and undermine deterrence.

如果事实证明如此,那么无所作为会招致重复或模仿。如果没有对这种袭击作出反应,那么我们表现出的是软弱并削弱威慑力。

Recalibration of National Assets

重新校准国家资产

The present pandemic makes clear that America must adopt new initiatives to better protect against biological as well as chemical and nuclear threats, including electromagnetic pulse weapons and radiological agents. Heretofore, the U.S. government considered the consequences of a pandemic in abstract terms; we have lacked the institutional structures and vocabulary to institute needed actions, even when significant intelligence was at hand.

当前的大流行清楚表明,美国必须采取新举措,以更好地防范生物、化学和核威胁,包括电磁脉冲武器和放射性媒介。迄今为止,美国政府只是从抽象的角度考虑了大流行的后果。我们也缺乏采取必要行动的体制结构和词汇去构建必须的行动,即使手头有大量情报。

After multiple visits to the virology lab in Wuhan by a U.S. delegation, detailed Department of State cables warned of significant safety issues in 2018. These reports, however, caused no meaningful action although the potential transmissibility of the viruses, studied at the lab, had been the focus of acute concern in the scientific community.

2018年美国代表团多次访问武汉病毒学实验室后,详细的国务院线报警告了重大安全问题。尽管在实验室研究的病毒已经拥有潜在传播能力,并且一直是科学界极为关注的焦点,但这些报告并未导致采取有意义的行动。。

What was missing for this intelligence to have made a difference was an established pathway and bureaucracy for urgent transmission of such information to high-level government authorities. Creating such avenues for action is a complex task, for duplicating bureaucracy can be worse than no action at all. The president should engage a special taskforce to map relevant existing government structures and to recommend a new system, which would be robust, investigative, and responsive to a spectrum of future threats.

让这种情报发挥作用所缺少的是,为紧急将此类信息传递给高层级政府的设立途径和官方机构。创建这样的行动途径是一项复杂的任务,因为重复官僚主义可能比根本没有行动还要糟糕。总统应召集一个特别工作组,以描绘相关的现有政府结构,并推荐一个新的系统。该系统应当具有强大的功能,富有调查性并能应对未来一系列的威胁。

Enforced Instability

强制不稳定性

Concomitant with the PRC’s insertion into U.S. higher education, economy, media, and core businesses, China has embarked on a global strategy that constitutes a new imperialism. The PRC’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) seeks to shape alliances on a transcontinental scale, which could include 65 countries that comprise 30 percent of global GDP and 75 percent of established energy reserves.

伴随着中共国融入美国的高等教育、经济、媒体和核心业务,中共国开始了一项构成新帝国主义的全球战略。中共国的“一带一路”倡议旨在建立跨洲规模的联盟,其中可能包括65个国家,这些国家占全球GDP的30%和已建立的能源储备的75%。

China appropriates national assets worldwide in loaded energy and development deals. The pandemic will only accelerate this unless countervailing action ensues. In Djibouti, China holds 77 percent of debt. Kenya, Angola, Nigeria, and Zambia were all on the cusp of asset appropriation before the present crisis.

中共国在世界各地的能源和发展交易中占有了(对方)国家资产。除非采取反补贴行动,否则大流行只会加速这种情况。在吉布提,中共国持有77%的债务。在当下危机之前,肯尼亚、安哥拉、尼日利亚和赞比亚都处于资产被占用的风口浪尖。

China appropriates national assets worldwide in loaded energy and development deals.

中共国在世界各地的能源和发展交易中动用了国家资产。

China has lent African nations $124 billion from 2000 through 2016. The largest portion of each loan is not generally provided to the borrower, but spent in China to finance Chinese-made inputs and trained labor. The recipient country, in effect, finances jobs and manufacturing in China. The reward for targeted countries is to have their assets appropriated, due to loan non-performance.

从2000年到2016年,中共国已向非洲国家提供了1240亿美元的贷款。每笔贷款的最大部分通常不是提供给借款人,而是在中共国内用于资助中共国制造的投入和受训的劳动力。实际上,是受援助国为中共国的就业和制造业提供了资金。作为“回报”,目标国家由于贷款不履行而导致国家资产被占有。

If the West slides into steep recession, developing nations may sell whatever they can in national riches to China for cents on the dollar. The Chinese Belt and Road Initiative will thus be realized. This avarice is the PRC’s Achilles’ heel.

如果西方陷入严重的衰退,发展中国家可能以极不成比例的价格向中共国出售任何可能的本国财富。中共国“一带一路”倡议将得以实现。 这种贪婪是中共国的阿喀琉斯之踵。

America must exploit this weakness by offering African and developing nations an alternative to the BRI. Facilitating opposition to Chinese aims among these nations must be a central component of a new U.S. strategy. America must exploit China’s susceptibility to client-state erosion. We must innovatively marshal hard and soft power to unseat the PRC from its footholds in Africa and elsewhere.

美国必须通过向非洲和发展中共国家提供“一带一路”倡议的替代品来利用这一弱点。在这些国家中促进对中共致力的目标的反对,必须成为美国新战略的重要组成部分。美国必须利用中共国对附庸国侵蚀程度的敏感性。我们必须创新地调动软硬实力,使中共国从非洲和其它地方的立足点倒下。

Should America continue to be locked down for an extended period, the unintended consequences will be massive. Developing nations, deprived of revenue from the sale of their commodities and goods, will surely suffer catastrophic losses and needless death, due to inadequate income to provide for adequate nutrition and health care. Such scarcities, when coupled with impoverished sub-Saharan health systems, will catastrophically overwhelm these systems with coronavirus and other diseases.

如果美国(因疫情)继续长期封锁,那么意想不到的后果将十分巨大。发展中共国家被剥夺了商品和货物销售的收入,进而由于收入难以提供足够的营养和保健,它们肯定会遭受灾难性损失和不必要的死亡。当这种匮乏与撒哈拉以南卫生系统的贫乏相结合时,将会让这些体系被灾难性地淹没于冠状病毒和其他疾病中。

Should America continue to be locked down for an extended period, the unintended consequences will be massive.

如果美国(因疫情)继续长期封锁,那么意想不到的后果将十分巨大。

By the year 2100, 17 of the world’s most populous cities, comprising approximately 700 million people, will be in sub-Saharan Africa. If ample electricity is not available, mass migration, war, religious extremism, and new pandemics are likely to result. The cost to the world’s nations will be measured in the tens of trillions of dollars. If a pestilence as virulent as Ebola spreads globally, it may take the planet decades to recover.

到2100年,撒哈拉以南非洲地区将有17个世界上人口最多的城市,约有7亿人口。如果没有足够的电力,则可能导致大规模移民、战争、宗教极端主义和新的流行病。世界各国的损失将以数十万亿美元来衡量。如果像埃博拉病毒一样致命的瘟疫在全球蔓延,那么这颗行星可能需要数十年才能恢复。

Africa’s challenges will be replicated across the world. Densely populated urban areas must have electricity to provide clean water, precision farming, jobs, governance, and human advancement. America and its allies must offer reliable, scalable alternatives to the open burning of wood or coal in developing countries, which causes severe pollution and disease.

非洲的挑战将在世界范围内复制。人口稠密的城市地区必须有电力,以提供清洁的水、精确的耕作、工作、治理和人类进步。美国及其盟国必须提供可靠,可扩展的替代方案,以替代发展中国家露天燃烧木材或煤炭的做法,因为这会造成严重的污染和疾病。

Development projects must be proffered as the alternative to the PRC’s model of loan, build, seize. Ceding this ground to China can only ensure the continued impoverishment of nations experiencing the highest birthrates in human history. Cabinet officials from the Departments of State, Treasury, Defense, and Justice, supported by intelligence and other agencies, must convene interagency groups to develop a set of initiatives to undermine and to replace the BRI.

必须提供开发项目,以替代中共国的贷款、建造、扣押模式。向中共国放弃这一立场只能确保这些持续贫困的国家经历人类历史上最高的出生率。国务院,财政部,国防部和司法部的内阁官员必须在情报机构和其他机构的支持下召集机构间小组,制定一套旨在制止和取代“一带一路”的提议。

Intelligence

情报

Of all the forces in the world today, only weapons of mass destruction (WMDs), disease, and the PRC can meaningfully affect our nation’s course. So these three specters should dominate the efforts of America’s intelligence community. Terrorism (that does not involve potential WMDs), Russia, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, and Iran are secondary in their capacity to damage the United States.

在当今世界所有力量中,只有大规模杀伤性武器(WMDs),疾病和中共国才能对我们国家的进程产生实质性的影响。因此,这三个幽灵应该是美国情报界努力针对的方向。恐怖主义(不涉及潜在的大规模杀伤性武器),俄罗斯,朝鲜民主主义人民共和国和伊朗在损害美国的能力方面处于次要地位。

If China did, indeed, prohibit internal travel from Wuhan while permitting international travel, such information should have been conveyed immediately to U.S. national authorities, but it remains far from certain that such transference took place. The director of national intelligence should be charged by the president to study, report, and institute a government-wide recalibration of our intelligence assets to support the reordering of our intelligence priorities and to instigate new, allied measures to counteract Chinese subterfuge and misinformation operations.

如果中共国确实在禁止从武汉进行国内旅行的同时允许国际旅行,这些信息应立即传达给美国国家主管部门。但仍无法肯定这样的信息移交会发生。总统应责令国家情报局长负责研究、报告并在政府范围内对我们的情报资产进行重新校准,以支持对我们的情报优先顺序进行重新排序,并采取新的联合措施来对付中共国的诡计和错误信息操作。

Counterintelligence must also be a priority. Chinese usurpation relies on that state’s financial power, coupled with a belligerent type of soft power referred to as sharp power. The country couples classic disinformation operations using an array of social media platforms with “or else” stratagems that relay consequences for countervailing actions to inculcate passivity.

反情报也必须是优先事项。中共国的掠夺依赖于该国的财政实力,再加上好战类型的软实力(称为“锐实力”)。该国使用一系列社交媒体平台,将经典的虚假信息操作与“或其他”策略结合在一起,被动传达与灌输采取反补贴行动的后果。

The PRC reportedly uses artificial intelligence (AI) to support decision and game theory to prioritize its intelligence efforts. These techniques were developed in the United States, but America’s most senior leaders generally do not use them for making decisions. This must change, for with AI, there is the potential to counterpunch in real time.

据报道,中共国使用人工智能(AI)来支持决策和博弈论,以优先化其情报工作。这些技术是在美国开发的,但是美国最高级的领导人通常不会将其用于决策。这必须改变,因为使用AI,这在真实世界中存在可能的反击。

Intellectual Property Theft

知识产权盗窃

Any response to China must hold trade as a central concern. An array of policies must address trade imbalances and China’s theft of intellectual property (IP). America’s 2019 trade deficit with China reached $345.6 billion, which does not include China’s IP theft.

对中共国的任何回应都必须以贸易为中心。必须采取一系列政策来应对贸易不平衡和中共国盗窃知识产权(IP)。美国2019年对华贸易逆差达到3456亿美元,其中不包括中共国的知识产权盗窃部分。

Total losses of this type to the U.S. economy far exceed $2 trillion in the last ten years alone. This sum could have made two million American families instant millionaires. Such loss estimates are conservative: IP theft does incalculable harm in reducing incentives for U.S. companies to invest in research and development, for it makes little sense to invest in something that will be stolen.

仅在过去十年中,这种类型对美国经济的总损失就远远超过2万亿美元。这笔钱相当于可以使200万美国家庭立即成为百万富翁。这样的损失估计是保守的:IP盗窃减少了美国公司投资于研发的动机,在这方面造成了无法估量的伤害,因为投资于将被盗的东西几乎没有意义。

An array of policies must address trade imbalances and China’s theft of intellectual property.

必须采取一系列政策来解决贸易不平衡和中共国盗窃知识产权(IP)的问题。

These losses to U.S. competitiveness are immense and take many forms: in 2011, 75 percent of China’s $12 billion domestic software market was satisfied by pirated software, much of it stolen from American companies. Due to this, Chinese PC business-related software spending was 7 percent of comparable U.S. software spending. This conveys massive competitive advantages to Chinese firms and entrepreneurs.

这些对美国竞争力造成的损失是巨大的,而且有多种形式:2011年,在中共国120亿美元的国内软件市场中,有75%是使用盗版软件,其中大部分是盗用美国公司的。因此,中共国个人电脑业务相关的软件支出占美国同类软件支出的7%。这为中共国企业和企业家带来了巨大的竞争优势。

Another aspect of IP theft is system compromise. The Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) antiballistic missile, along with other U.S. weapon systems, has been found to contain counterfeit parts that may reduce mission performance, if undiscovered. The Chinese have reduced emphasis on blatant, transparent thefts, governmental involvement, and insertions, but have increased in their sophistication and breadth.

IP盗窃的另一方面是系统危害。终端高空防区(THAAD)弹道导弹以及其他美国武器系统被发现含有伪造零件,如果未被发现,它们可能会降低任务性能。中共国人减少了对公然,透明的盗窃,政府介入和介入的重视,但其复杂性和广度却有所增加。

The arsenal of American policy tools must be systematically used to minimize such negative consequences. The exception for national security reasons to the presumption in favor of free trade is embodied in the WTO as well as our nation’s trade laws. We must expand the use of Section 232 findings, which require the president determine whether imports “threaten to impair the national security.” Section 232 could be employed to ensure that a specified level of the nation’s supply (net of exports) be provided by domestic or allied sources for drugs and medical products.

必须系统地使用美国政策工具库,以最大程度地减少这种负面后果。 世贸组织和我国的贸易法,都体现了出于国家安全原因而主张自由贸易的例外。我们必须扩大对第232条调查结果的使用,该调查结果要求总统确定进口是否“威胁到国家安全”。可以采用第232条的规定,以确保由药品或医疗产品的国内或相关来源提供指定水平的国家供应量(净出口)。

Ending Chinese IP theft will require a concentrated effort by the U.S. government working with American industry, and would yield enormous benefits. If allied governments joined this effort, the PRC would be impinged, and have no avenue of complaint.

结束中共国的知识产权盗窃将需要美国政府与美国工业界的共同努力,并将产生巨大的利益。如果有盟国政府加入这一努力,中共国将受到冲击,并且也不会有申诉途径。

As an initial step, the NATO countries, Australia, Japan, and South Korea should develop the means to rapidly pass intelligence about industries and companies that possess key technologies believed to be at risk or targeted by China. For counterfeited items, with particular concern for the compromise of military equipment through the unintended incorporation of Chinese-made parts, a system of etching, lithography, and secret coding by time, date, and place of manufacture may secure each part and thus inhibit Chinese compromise of our military systems.

作为第一步,北约国家、澳大利亚、日本和韩国应开发出方法,以迅速传递有关拥有被认为正处于中共国危险或攻击目标的关键技术的行业和公司的情报。对于伪造物品,尤其要担心由于意外混入了中共国制造的零件而导致的军事装备受损,一个蚀刻、光刻和按制造时间、日期和地点秘密编码的系统,可能会确保每个部分的安全,从而抑制中共国对我们军事系统的妥协。

The 2013 IP Commission Report prepared by former Director of National Intelligence Admiral Dennis Blair and Ambassador John Huntsman stated that the following measure be considered in the context of IP theft, “if the loss of IP continues at current levels” and other remedial actions fail, “Recommend that Congress and the administration impose a tariff on all Chinese-origin imports, designed to raise 150% of all U.S. losses from Chinese IP theft in the previous year, as estimated by the secretary of commerce.”

国家情报局前局长丹尼斯·布莱尔上将和约翰·亨茨曼大使撰写的《 2013年知识产权委员会报告》指出,在知识产权盗窃的背景下,应考虑采取以下措施:“如果知识产权的损失继续维持现有水平,并且其他补救措施失败,“建议国会和政府对所有原产于中共国的进口商品加征关税,这旨在增加据商务部长估计的上一年美国因中共国知识产权盗窃造成的全部损失的150%。”

U.S. imports from China in 2019 amounted to $452.2 billion, resulting in a net trade deficit of $345.6 billion. Assuming IP losses due to China of $270 billion for 2019, the imposition of the suggested tariff would yield $405 billion in revenue, wiping away the entire trade deficit. But tariffs at this level would actually reduce trade substantially, which the PRC fears.

2019年美国从中共国的进口额为4,522亿美元,净贸易逆差为3,456亿美元。假设2019年中共国造成的IP损失为2700亿美元,则征收关税将产生4050亿美元的收入,从而消除整个贸易逆差。但是,中共国担心这个水平的关税实际上会大大减少贸易,。

Offsets

弥补

Combined efforts to stem IP theft will have little long-term affect unless they are married with measures to prohibit or to take back the PRC’s ownership of key U.S. and allied businesses, which has been facilitated through proxies and front companies. The Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) is charged with the responsibility to determine if the security implications of foreign investments disqualify pending mergers or acquisitions of American companies or their operations. The Exon–Florio Amendment (50 U.S.C. app 2170) grants the president the authority to block any investment or acquisition if a “foreign interest exercising control might take action that threatens to impair the national security.”

除非采取与禁止或收回中共国对美国及相关关键企业所有权的措施相结合的措施,否则阻止知识产权盗窃的共同努力不会产生长期影响,这些公司通过代理和前端公司获取便利。美国外国投资委员会(CFIUS)负责根据外国投资的安全隐患,决定是否使美国公司或其业务的未决并购中的资格丧失。艾克森—彿若理歐修正案(Exon-Florio)(50 U.S.C. app 2170)授予总统权力,如果“行使控制权的外国利益可能采取威胁国家安全的行动,则可以阻止任何投资或收购。”

President Trump signed the Foreign Investment Risk Review Modernization Act (FIRRMA) into law in 2018. FIRRMA essentially enlarged the scope of CFIUS to include consideration of a transaction’s impact on U.S. manufacturing and the protection of transformative technologies. The transactions now assessed include not only acquisitions, but licenses, sales, real estate, minority holdings, and stakes in venture capital funds. The expanded compass of CFIUS is critical, but more must be done.

川普总统于2018年签署了《外国投资风险审查现代化法案》(FIRRMA),使之成为法律。FIRRMA实质上扩大了CFIUS的范围,其中包括考虑交易对美国制造业的影响以及对转型技术的保护。现在评估的交易不仅包括收购,还包括许可、销售、房地产、少数股权和风险投资基金的股份。CFIUS的扩展指南针至关重要,但还需要做更多。

A precedent must not be set for reparations to be determined by a disease’s initial point of origin.

不得设置因疾病的原始起源而赔偿的先例。

To chart an enhanced course for CFIUS, the world’s nations should be categorized into five tiers. Kept classified, these groupings would comprise Allied, Friendly, Non-Aligned, Adversarial, and Belligerent nations. The latter two categories should generally preclude ownership or significant minority positions in U.S. enterprises. Employing this approach, the PRC could be judged an adversarial state.

为了规划CFIUS的强化方向,世界各国应分为五个层次。保持分类状态,这些分组将包括盟国,友好国,不结盟国,对抗国和交战国。后两类正常来说应排除对美国企业的所有权或重要的少数职位。采用这种方法,中共国应判定为对抗国家。

Depending on the final U.S. government verdict on Chinese responsibility for the spread of the virus, America might demand reparations. If so, such reparations should be scaled not as a function of the ravages of the disease, but as a function of the Communist Party of China’s duplicity in their presentation of the facts concerning the genesis of the disease, its evolution, its spread, and the party’s alleged acts to hoard personal protective equipment and limit travel within China from Wuhan, while promoting international travel from the affected region.

根据美国政府对中共国对病毒传播的责任的最终判决,美国可能要求赔偿。如果是这样,赔偿金的比例应不取决于疾病的肆虐,而应取决于中共国共产党在陈述有关疾病的起源、演变、传播和传播的事实时的双重性,以及该党所谓的囤积个人防护装备,限制从武汉到中共国境内旅行,同时促进受灾地区的国际旅行。

A precedent must not be set for reparations to be determined by a disease’s initial point of origin, for viruses do occur naturally and this process can only sometimes be controlled or mitigated. Instead, compensation or private lawsuits must derive from complex, preferably multinational, assessments of state malfeasance or criminality. America’s actions in this regard must not be framed in such a manner that may call into disputation the Public Debt Clause section of the Fourteenth Amendment.

不得设置因疾病的原始起源而赔偿的先例,因为各种各样的病毒的确可以自然发生,而且有时只能控制或减轻这一过程。相反,赔偿或私人诉讼必须源自对国家不法行为或犯罪行为的复杂评估,最好是跨国评估。美国在这方面的行动不能受制于第十四修正案“公共债务条款”部分的争议。

Measures to counteract China’s coronavirus subterfuge should prevent a parallel event from occurring in the future. Key to such ability is the requirement for open, international inspections of biological laboratories in the same manner and with the same diligence as is required in the inspection of nuclear facilities. A new, multinational initiative must include all components of security and intelligence services to create a biological threat-response capability equivalent to that of our Nuclear Emergency Support Team (NEST), whose mission is to be “prepared to respond immediately to any type of radiological accident or incident anywhere in the world.”

对于中共国关于冠状病毒托词的应对措施,应防止将来发生类似事件。具备这种能力的关键是,要求以对核设施检查相同的方式和勤勉对生物实验室进行公开的国际检查。一项新的跨国倡议必须包括安全和情报服务的所有组成部分,以创建与我们的核应急支持小组(NEST)等效的生物威胁响应能力,其使命是“准备立即对世界任何地方任何类型的放射性事件或事故做出响应。”

Such teams would provide a competitive view to that generated by a particular bureaucracy.

这样的团队将提出比特定官僚机构更有竞争性的观点。

Associated with this facility must be the creation of B Teams, of the type employed to assess Soviet strategic-force capabilities during the Cold War. Such teams would provide a competitive view to that generated by a particular bureaucracy. This forces investigators to hone their analyses, providing the decision-maker with far more comprehensive information than a single source could generate.

与这种设施有关的必须是创建B队(意为备份小队),这种B队类似于评估冷战期间苏联的战略力量。这样的团队将提出比特定官僚机构更有竞争性观点。这迫使调查人员改进他们的分析,为决策者提供比单一来源所能提供的信息更为全面的信息。

Just as government uses a series of gradated codewords to classify nuclear accidents and events, the United States and its allies need to create a common vocabulary for biological incidents. These designative terms should mirror those in use as nuclear-incident descriptors. Using these new terms will permit enhanced and specific response times to biological emergencies.

正如政府使用一系列分级的码字,对核事故和核事件进行分类一样,美国及其盟国也需要为生物事件创建通用的词汇表。这些指定术语应反映用作核事件描述符的术语。使用这些新术语将使对生物紧急情况的响应时间得到延长和特定。

The United States must make common cause with its traditional allies to confront and contain China. Importantly, Islamic nations must form a barrier opposed to Chinese infringement. Indeed, only an assembly of Islamic nations can press successfully for humane treatment for China’s 25 million Uyghur Muslims.

美国必须与传统盟友共同对抗和遏制中共国。重要的是,伊斯兰国家必须成为反对中共国侵权的屏障。实际上,只有伊斯兰国家的集合才能成功地敦促对中共国2500万维吾尔族穆斯林进行人道待遇。

Needed political realignment also requires America’s close association with India. This nation ranks third in the world in GDP (PPP), and its population almost equals China’s. India is thus crucial to the containment of communist advancement.

必要的政治调整也需要美国与印度的紧密联系。这个国家的GDP(购买力平价PPP)排名世界第三,其人口几乎等于中共国。因此,印度对于遏制共产主义进步至关重要。

Islamic nations must form a barrier opposed to Chinese infringement.

伊斯兰国家必须成为反对中共国侵权的屏障。

Any manufacturing now done in China for or by American companies can be better accomplished in India, for it is the world’s largest democracy, offering a degree of openness the PRC will never match. Military co-operation between the United States and China should largely cease (except for crisis de-escalation exercises); equivalent exchanges and exercises with India must be substituted.

现在,在中共国内为了或者由美国公司完成的任何制造业都可以在印度更好地完成,因为印度是世界上最大的民主国家,提供了中共国永远无法比拟的开放度。美中(共)之间的军事合作应在很大程度上停止(除危机降级行动外), 必须与印度进行同等的交流和演习。

India operates an aircraft carrier and is completing its own design. Although large, India’s navy requires modernization. Enhanced Navy-to-Navy development, procurement, and operations must be pressed.

印度运营一艘航空母舰,并正在完成自己的设计。印度海军虽然规模很大,但需要现代化。必须加强(印、美)海军到海军的开发、采购和运营。

Another component of an enhanced relationship between the United States and India could be the inclusion of the United Kingdom and the 54-member-state Commonwealth of Nations. This association comprises 20 per cent of the world’s land and is a natural alternative for mutual development that may be substituted for China’s BRI.

美国和印度之间加强关系的另一个组成部分,可以包括英国和有54个成员国的英联邦国家。该联合占世界土地的20%,是相互发展的自然选择,可以替代中共国的“一带一路”倡议。

10 Actions the United States Must Take

十个美国必须采取的行动

The problem is not the Chinese people, nor their proud heritage that stretches back thousands of years. It is communism. We must challenge China:

问题不在于中国人民,也不在于其可以追溯到几千年前的骄傲遗产。 问题在于共产主义。 我们必须向中共国提出:

1. Return all production of our medicines, medical supplies, and equipment to the United States or to countries that are our allies;

1.将我们所有药品、医疗用品和设备的生产,退还给美国或我们的盟国;

2.Enact severe limits on Chinese graduate students in all scientific subjects; shutter all Confucius Institutes at American universities until they be stripped of their propagandistic mission;

2.在所有学科对中共国研究生设置严格的限制;关闭美国大学的所有孔子学院,直到他们不再拥有宣传使命;

3.Entrench principles and restrictions so that China can buy no more of our corporations, universities, or national assets;

3,加强原则和限制,使中共不能再购买我们的公司、大学或国家资产;

4.Help deny, across the world, the ability for China’s Huawei to deploy its 5G networks, systems, phones, and devices, as tools for espionage, industrial and otherwise, could be implanted in these systems;

4.在全球范围内帮助阻止华为部署其5G网络、系统、电话和设备的能力,因为这些系统可以植入间谍、工业和其他方面的工具;

5.Threaten to extend tariffs substantially if the PRC does not make all virus data and sites available to our scientists, so that we may understand fully the genesis and the spread of the present pandemic; the PRC must also release any COVID-19 whistleblowers and eliminate all wet markets;

5,如果中共国没有向我们的科学家提供所有病毒数据和点位,以便我们可以充分了解当前这种大流行的起源和传播,则应威胁要大幅扩大关税;中共国还必须释放任何中共武汉肺炎吹哨人,并消除所有水产市场;

6.Put into law criminal penalties for any American company or individual who shares proprietary or sensitive information with China, when such information has application to our defense, high-technology, or energy-related industrial base;

6,对任何美国公司或个人,与中共国分享专有或敏感信息的,包括适用于我们的国防、高科技或与能源相关的工业基础的信息,将被处以刑事处罚;

7.Accelerate Freedom of Navigation passages and exercises through waters that China falsely claims, with maximum U.S. naval power expressed; in this, we should include, when possible, ships of the British, the Australian, and the Japanese Navies;

7,加快在中共国错误声称的水域,进行航行自由和演习,以最大的美国海军力量表现; 在这方面,我们应尽可能包括英国、澳大利亚和日本海军的船只;

8.Undertake determined efforts to deny China’s Belt and Road Initiative, especially in Africa; extend alternative terms to key nations on the brink of asset appropriation due to China’s predatory lending practices;

8,坚定地努力制止中共国的“一带一路”倡议,特别是在非洲;将其他替代的倡议条款扩展到由于中共国的掠夺性借贷行为而即将遭受(国家)资产占用的关键国家;

9.Announce a new military package to reinforce Taiwan’s defensive capabilities. To this end, we should consider the sale of the F-35 due to the deployment of the advanced Chengdu J-20 fighter by China. This sale would either be as a replacement for the pending transfer of less-advanced F-16Vs to Taiwan or as a supplement to this force;

9.宣布一项新的军事计划,以加强台湾的防御能力。为此,由于中共国部署了先进的成都(商飞)J-20战斗机,我们应该考虑出售F-35。 此次出售将替代即将对台出售的不那么先进的F-16V,或作为这支部队的补充;

10.Radically reduce IP theft. Explicate that China’s economic expansion would have been impossible without their theft of American technology; produce and distribute lists of American technologies and products stolen or copied by China; urge other free countries to do the same, so that the world will recognize this danger.

10.大幅度减少知识产权盗窃。阐明如果不盗窃美国技术,中共国的经济扩张将是不可能的;制作和分发中共国盗窃或复制的美国技术和产品清单;敦促其他自由国家也这样做,以便世界认识到这一危险。

The Future

未来

China is on the verge of becoming a peer competitor in soft power and sharp power. This must mean burnishing American advocacy and influence by vesting our power within the connectivity and informational domains that we dominate. Such influence, however, may only be retained with a floor of allied containment of China.

中共国即将在软实力和“锐实力”上成为同水平竞争者。这必须意味着,通过在我们主导的连接性和信息领域内发挥我们的力量,来增强美国的宣传和影响力。但是,这种影响也许只能在对中共国保持遏制姿态的盟国内保留下来。

A new, decentralized World Wide Web must be pursued with vigor. Censorship on major web platforms threatens to limit personal freedom and expression. This very much supports the Communist Party of China’s aims.

必须大力发展新的去中心化的万维网。主要网络平台上的审查有可能限制个人自由和表达,它们在这点上相当帮助了中共国共产党的目标。

A new, decentralized World Wide Web must be pursued with vigor.

必须大力发展新的去中心化的万维网

Brewster Kahle, founder of the Internet Archive, has joined Sir Tim Berners-Lee, inventor of the World Wide Web, in calling for the creation of a decentralized web, more resistant to government and corporate control. Such a new web architecture would constitute a great advancement for freedom movements across the globe. Kahle says, “China can make it impossible for people there to read things, and just a few big service providers are the de facto organizers of your experience. We have the ability to change all that.”

互联网档案馆的创始人布鲁斯特·卡勒(Brewster Kahle)和万维网的发明者蒂姆·伯纳斯·李爵士(Sir Tim Berners-Lee)呼吁建立一种去中心化的网络,以更抵制政府和公司的控制。这种新的网页架构将为全球自由运动带来巨大的进步。卡勒说:“中共国让那里的人们无法阅读东西成为可能,少数的大型服务提供商是你自身体验事实上的组织者。我们有能力改变这一切。”

During the present pandemic, China’s most abhorrent exports may be fear and disinformation. Twice before this crisis, and in the living memory of many Americans, our nation has experienced pandemics. According to the CDC’s website, during the 1957 Asian Flu, “The estimated number of deaths was 1.1 million worldwide and 116,000 in the United States.”

在当前的大流行中,中共国最可恶的可能是恐惧和虚假信息的出口。 在这场危机发生前两次,仍存在于许多美国人的记忆中,我国也曾经历了大流行。根据疾病预防控制中心的网站,在1957年亚洲流感期间,“估计死亡人数在全球范围内为110万人,在美国为116,000人。”

The U.S. population in 1957 was 172 million; thus, adjusted for our present population, the Asian Flu would have killed 222,000 Americans. Of the 1968 Hong Kong Flu, the CDC has written, “The estimated number of deaths was 1 million worldwide and about 100,000 in the United States.” America’s population in 1968 was 201 million; adjusting for today, the Hong Kong Flu would have killed 164,000 Americans. Neither pandemic altered American economic life.

1957年,美国人口为1.72亿;因此,按照我们目前的人口计算,亚洲流感将杀死222,000名美国人。美国疾病预防控制中心(CDC)在1968年的香港流感中写道:“全世界估计的死亡人数为100万人,美国约为10万人。” 1968年美国的人口为2.01亿;根据今天的调整,香港流感将杀死164,000名美国人。这两次大流行都没有改变美国的经济生活。

To cower in the face of this pandemic and to not make the hard choices necessary to ensure American primacy is to be unfair to future generations.

面对这种大流行,退缩并且不做出为确保美国至上的必要艰难选择,对后代是不公平的。

While some may argue the present pandemic could be much worse than the two that preceded it, the present dread, stoked by a foreign power, has certainly ruptured America’s economy in ways inconceivable before it. To cower in the face of this pandemic and to not make the hard choices necessary to ensure American primacy is to be unfair to future generations.

尽管有些人认为当前的流行病可能比之前的严重得多,当前的恐惧,被一个外国势力煽动,无疑以其难以想象的方式破坏了美国的经济。 面对这种大流行,退缩并且不做出为确保美国至上的必要艰难选择,对后代是不公平的。

The way we have answered this pandemic is not repeatable: our array of actions cannot be mounted if another wave or pandemic strikes. This is our gravest sin: we have shown China, Russia, and Iran, as well as terrorist actors, that our nation may be brought low if faced with a new pathogen.

我们对付这种大流行的方式不能再被重复:如果再起波澜或又一个大流行来袭,我们的一系列行动将无法启动。这是我们最严重的罪过:我们向中共国、俄罗斯和伊朗以及恐怖分子表明,面对新的病原体,我们的国家可能会处于低谷。

To establish deterrence so a future malevolent actor sees our capacities both to endure and to respond, America must exact a high price from the People’s Republic of China. In this cause, we must seek the support of all the free nations of the world.

为了建立威慑力,使未来的恶意表演者看到我们的承受能力和应对能力,美国必须让中共国付出高昂的代价。为此,我们必须寻求世界所有自由国家的支持。

If America had done a tenth of what China has done to the world, even given the most charitable view of their acts, the PRC would do anything to make us pay. If we are not willing to act, and decisively, we are leaving the field to an unhindered, unremorseful, and ravenous state with a degree of relative economic power that we have not faced since the War of 1812.

如果美国对中共国所做的事情做到了中共国所做的十分之一,即使对他们的行为方式有最慈善的看法,中共国也会做任何让我们付出代价的事情。如果我们不愿意采取果断的行动,我们就是战场留给了一个不受阻碍、不后悔和贪婪的,拥有自1812年战争以来我们从未面对过的相对经济力量的国家。

This pandemic has almost certainly uncovered treachery by the PRC. It did not have to be planned. It is enough that the communists seized on it, took advantage of it, and had special knowledge of its origin. To prosper, we must reclaim America’s principles, lest we grant China victory in a great, undeclared war.

这一流行病几乎肯定揭露了中共国的背叛行为。无需计划。共产党人抓住了它,利用了它,并对它的起源有了特殊的了解,这就足够了。 为了成功,我们必须恢复美国的原则,以免我们在一场伟大的、不宣而战的战争中给中共国带来胜利。

John Poindexter is a former national security advisor. Robert McFarlane is a former national security advisor. Richard Levine is a former National Security Council director for policy development.

约翰·波德克斯特是前国家安全顾问。罗伯特·麦克法兰是前国家安全顾问。 理查德·莱文是前国家安全委员会政策制定主任。

编辑:【喜马拉雅战鹰团】Edited by:【Himalaya Hawk Squad】