Canada In 2050 By Sahil Manjania

Canada is the world’s second-largest country (9,976,140 km2) and is made up of ten provinces and three territories. It has a diverse population of approximately 36,464,928 people as of December 28th, 2016. Since 1985, Canada's population has increased rapidly by 10,438,208 people. As the population continues to increase, this presentation will give you a brief understanding of what Canada will look like in the year 2050 based on the current trends of immigration, demography and Aboriginal peoples in Canada.

Demography

Current Demographic Trends

Currently, Canadians are having smaller families than other nationalities. Canadian women have an average of 1.54 children each, compared to other countries such as the U.K at 1.84 and Australia at 1.78. In order to maintain or grow the population, Canadian woman would need to have 2.1 children. On the other hand, in 2002 the death rate was 7.39 deaths per 1,000 people. It increased to 8.5 deaths per 1,000 people in 2016.

In 2005, the natural increase for Canada was 3.35. Then five years later, it bumped up to 3.86 in 2010. Currently the natural increase rate is at 3.64 per 1,000 people. There hasn't been a surprising change in the rate of natural increase. However, it has decreased enormously because in 1990, the natural increase rate was at 7.02 per 1,000 people.

Future Predictions.

In the past 50 years, Canada's population has almost doubled. From 1965 to 2016, the total population of Canada has increased by 16.5 million. If the population continues to grow, Canada would be a over populated country and cause a negative expressions to immigrants looking to settle in because taxes will be higher. However, this is unlikely to happen because the baby boomers (those from 1945 - 1965) will reach retirement age. That will raise the number of seniors in Canada to an estimated 23.6 percent by 2030. By 2063, the number of Canadians aged 80 years and over would reach around 5 million. Compared with 1.4 million in 2013. This is because nearly 60 million people died globally in world war 2 and that affected Canada's population, so more babies were born after world war 2. As stated in the chart above in the median age section, the median age is increasing because most of Canada's population is made up of elderly people. It's predicted that the birth rate will remain very low in 2050. This can be because only six percent of Canadian businesses provide assistance for child care and only thirty six percent offer flexible work schedules. The death rate will decrease due to an increase in life expectancy because of good health care in Canada. In fact, Canada performed best on health status, ranking second only to Switzerland. Although, as of 2012, about 21 percent of Canadians were over the age of 60. by 2030, that number is predicted to rise to about 28.5 percent, and by 2050 nearly a third of all Canadians. Canada is predicted to see a slowly increasing population by 2050. Therefore, the government would have to take action on inviting more immigrants to fill in the missing job positions and a unbalanced population.

Immigration

Current Trends Of Immigration

Canada currently draws approximately 220, 000 people a year through immigration.

Immigrants are as a group better educated than Canadians and since 1967, when the government introduced its point system, the selection process favors those with useful skills. Canada has relied on new workers from mainly China and India.

Future Predictions Of Immigration

In the upcoming years, Canada will need to attract more immigrants from other countries. The government can do this by lowering education fee and making property inexpensive because immigrants often face difficulty working in their fields after they arrive. On average, it takes 10 years for immigrants to get hired for jobs which they aim for. Also, climate can be an issue for immigrants coming from countries near the equator because those countries don't experience snowfall. Furthermore, as mentioned before, Canada relies on skilled workers from mainly China and India to settle in. However, those two countries are improving their economy themselves, causing fewer people wanting to leave their own country. Canada will need to welcome more immigrants in the upcoming years to replace the baby boomers. By doing so the population and economy will continue to grow. These immigrants are predicted to settle in lesser populated provinces because the urbanized lands such as Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver are predicted to become overpopulated. An overpopulated place means a higher crime rate, more green house gasses, need for more transportation, and expensive property. Even after skilled workers arrive to Canada, it can be a challenge to keep them because the United States is also eager to attract these types of people.

Aboriginal Peoples

Current Aboriginal Population Trends

Aboriginal children aged 14 and under made up 28.0% of the total Aboriginal population and 7.0% of all children in Canada. Non-Aboriginal children aged 14 and under represented 16.5% of the total non-Aboriginal population. Also, about 6% of the total Aboriginal population were seniors aged 65. Therefore, majority of the aboriginal population is currently young .

The birth rate for the Aboriginal population is 2.7, compared to the Non-Aboriginal population at 1.6 per 1,000 woman. This proves that the Aboriginal population is continuing to grow fast. Furthermore, the province with the highest percentage of people reporting an Aboriginal identity is Ontario, with 301,425 people or 21.5 percent of the Aboriginal population.

The Indian Act is causing many issues such as poverty, which leads to a lack of education and employment.

This graph is showing results from a 2011 census.

Future Predictions For Aboriginal Populations

Although the government wants to abolish the Indian Act and treat the First Nations community like everyone else, it's unlikely to happen by 2050 because as mentioned before, majority of this population is young and since they face poverty, they're uneducated which means they're going to have trouble being employed. The Aboriginals should be left alone with the freedom on how they choose to live but, they should be pushed further away from the metropolitan areas, such as Ottawa. However, this still means that the population is predicted to grow even more because in 2001, 3.3% of the population had an Aboriginal identity. Then in the 2011 census, 1,400,685 people had an Aboriginal identity, representing 4.3% of the total Canadian population. The Aboriginal population is also expected to increase due to a higher fertility rate. Since most of the population is young, the fertility rate can increase because the young population is going to enter their adult life by 2050, meaning they're going to have children.

In conclusion, Canada's Immigration, demography and the Aboriginal community will go through many positive and negative changes in the next 34 years. I've predicted that Canada's overall population will rise to around 50 million, and a global population of 10 billion. That means, Canada's total population will increase by roughly 15 million in 2050.

Citations

  • URL http://www.worldometers.info/world-population/canada-population/ Website Title -Canada Population (2016) Article Title- Canada Population (LIVE) Accessed on January 04, 2017
  • URL https://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-recensement/2011/dp-pd/pyramid-pyramide/his/index-acc-eng.cfm?province=1 Website Title - Historical age pyramid. Article Title - Historical age pyramids – Description. Date PublishedJanuary 08, 2016. Date AccessedJanuary 04, 2017
  • CBC News, September 14, 2014 (article from D2L)
  • George Stronumboulopoulos, CBC News, October 1, 2013 (article from D2L)
  • URLhttp://www.ctvnews.ca/canada/end-first-nations-poverty-by-ditching-indian-act-lobby-group-says-1.1115388 Website Title –CTV News. Article Title - End First Nations poverty by ditching Indian Act, lobby group says.
  • URLhttp://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.ca/en/article/aboriginal-people-demography/ Website Title - The Canadian Encyclopedia Article Title - Demography of Indigenous People.

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