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永远不要相信中共国的数据! 【中英对照翻译】

來源:The Gateway Pundit

作者 Joe Hoft 2020年6月21日7:29 出版

翻译/简评:万人往

PR:孙行者

Page:玄天生

简评:

中共的假股市、假汇率、假楼市,甚至整个金融系统都是用假“擀面杖”撑起来的,靠假来维持金融系统稳定。中共经济发展本质上是用盗国贼家族掌控枪杆子,掠夺14亿人民的劳动成果,让自己先富起来。老百姓在盗国贼“驭民五术”的统治之下有口饭吃都要感谢党恩,更不要说能够好好享受生活。中共官僚系统不创造任何价值,只有等将来有一天这个政权脆断,中国人才有机会重新选择与世界文明接轨。

一方面,新闻联播宣传在“总加速师”的领导下,2020年实现全面建成小康社会,脱贫县纷纷摘帽,有的省只有几户人家没有脱贫;另一方面,李中堂两会答记者问时透露,6亿人月收入低于1000元。中共国公布的任何数据,看似非常伟大、光荣、正确,但就是不方便看合订本。

郭先生直播说过,中共政权灭亡之前,金融系统会崩塌。现在,美国对中共的终极制裁即将到来,“八十国联军”即将对中共病毒索赔,中共金融系统崩塌的这一天,即将来临!

原文:

11 Reasons Why China’s Economy is Failing and in Terrible Shape – NEVER Trust Data Coming Out of China!

中共国经济衰退和状况糟糕的11个原因——永远不要相信来自中共国的数据!

By Joe Hoft Published June 21, 2020 at 7:29am

作者 Joe Hoft 2020年6月21日7:29 出版

China’s economy was slowing drastically last year before the coronavirus outbreak in Wuhan. There were multiple signs that China’s economy was in horrible shape. Today we provide a couple more examples.

去年,在武汉的冠状病毒爆发之前,中共国经济急剧放缓。有多种迹象表明,中共国经济状况糟糕。今天我们举几个例子。

In December 2019 we reported you can feel it in Hong Kong. The economy is sluggish. We reported for months that President Trump had the US in the position that it could only win in a trade deal with China and he did.

2019年12月,我们曾报道,你可以在香港感受到经济萧条。几个月来,我们一直在报道川普总统让美国在与中共国的贸易协议中处于只赢不输的地位,而他确实做到了。

We reported in a post in August 2019 that President Trump recognized that China is in an all out war with the US in regards to information and economics. For years Western leaders have done nothing but negotiate into weak positions, never standing up to the Communist regime. Former US Presidents treated China like they did Russia 50 years ago, as their superior always giving them what they wanted and never standing up to their abuse and criminal acts.

我们曾在2019年8月的一篇文章中报道,川普总统认识到中共国在信息和经济方面与美国处于全面战争状态。多年来,西方领导人什么也没做,只是在谈判中处于弱势地位,从未与共产主义政权对抗。美国前总统们对待中共国就像50年前对待俄罗斯一样,把他们视为上级,总是给他们想要的东西,从不反抗他们的滥用权力和犯罪行为。

We posted a presentation in August 2019 from former Trump Chief Strategist Steve Bannon regarding China. He discussed how China is in an economic war with the US. He said America was losing until President Trump. Then he added this:

我们在2019年8月发布了川普前首席策略师史蒂夫·班农关于中共国的演讲。他讨论了中共国是如何与美国展开经济战争的。他说,在川普总统到来之前,美国一直在输。接着他又说:

Well here’s the game and right now we are converging on a point and they understand this. We could take the whole thing down. We can take, the whole thing’s built on a house of sand…

游戏是这样的,现在我们汇聚在一点上,他们也明白这一点。我们可以把它拿下来。整个建筑都是建在沙子上的…

If they [China] devalue their currency they are just going to flood more out. They got $3 trillion of reserves and trust me, in a New York second that thing would flood out in a second. That’s what their own people think about their economy. We’ve allowed these guys to push us around. We’ve allowed these guys to take the South China Sea…

如果他们(中共国)让货币贬值,就会有更多资金外流。他们有3万亿美元的外汇储备,相信我,这些钱会在一秒钟内涌出来。这就是他们的人民对自己经济的看法。我们任由这些家伙摆布。我们允许这些家伙占领南海…

This trade war is going to end in victory and what you’re going to see is a reorientation of the entire supply chain out of China…

这场贸易战将以胜利告终,你将看到的是中共国整个供应链的重新定位……

Today we provide a list of 11 Reasons China’s economy is on the brink of collapse. (This is an updated list from the 10 reasons we posted in February 2020.)

今天,我们列出了中共国经济处于崩溃边缘的11个原因。(这是我们在2020年2月发布的10个原因的更新列表。)

1. China over built real estate at levels worse than the US in 2008.

1.中共国过度建设房地产的程度比2008年的美国还要糟糕。

We reported in May 2019 that China’s current situation is very similar to the situation in the US that caused the ‘Great Recession’ memorialized in the movie ‘The Big Short’.

我们曾在2019年5月报道过,中共国目前的状况与电影《大空头》中描述的美国“大衰退”非常相似。

The cause of the 2008 sub-prime crisis is discussed in (my book) Falling Eagle, Rising Tigers:

2008年次贷危机的原因在(我的书)《坠落的鹰,崛起的虎》中有论述:

Politicians would have you believe that the 2008 financial meltdown was related to the more recent actions of one party or the other, but the roots of the 2008 housing market crisis really began in the 1930s with the creation of the Federal Housing Administration (FHA), which guaranteed banks’ mortgage risks and the Federal National Mortgage Association (FNMA), which effectively insured mortgages by purchasing mortgages from lenders. Both shifted risks from the lenders to the US taxpayers. Then in 1977, the Community Reinvestment Act (CRA) was signed into law by President Jimmy Carter. This law was designed to promote home ownership for minorities by prohibiting banks from refusing mortgages in poor areas due to the loan’s high risk. In addition, mortgage lenders were required under the 1975 Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA) to provide data about who they lent to. Then in 1991, HMDA rules were tightened and included specific demands for racial equality in the institution’s lending.

政客们会让你相信,2008年的金融危机与某一党派的最近行动有关,但2008年房地产市场危机的根源始于30年代创建的保障银行的抵押贷款风险的联邦住宅管理局(FHA)和有效地从放贷机构购买抵押贷款担保抵押贷款的联邦国民抵押贷款协会(FNMA)。两者都将风险从放贷机构转移到了美国纳税人身上。1977年,吉米·卡特总统签署了《社区再投资法》(CRA)。这项法律旨在通过禁止银行拒绝向贫困地区发放高风险贷款来促进少数族裔拥有住房。此外,根据1975年的《住房抵押贷款披露法案》(HMDA),抵押贷款机构被要求提供有关其贷款对象的数据。然后在1991年,HMDA的规定变得更加严格,在该机构的贷款中包含了种族平等的具体要求。

Credit-worthiness was no longer relevant in the US and the volume of subprime loans exploded. The government had inserted itself in the mortgage business. Like most government initiatives, their plans were doomed. Americans lacking the ability to pay for mortgages were provided mortgages at teaser rates that when fully adjusted would never be paid. This ultimately climaxed in 2008 with the subprime crisis that sent shock waves around the world and put financial markets in a tailspin.

在美国,信誉已不再重要,次级贷款数量激增。政府涉足了抵押贷款业务。与大多数政府举措一样,他们的计划注定要失败。缺乏支付抵押贷款能力的美国人获得的抵押贷款利率是预先调整的利率,,这个利率如果调整得足够,(贷款)就永远不会被支付。这最终在2008年的次贷危机中达到顶峰,次贷危机在全球引发了冲击波,使金融市场陷入混乱。

China’s actions somewhat mirrored those in the US in 2008. As China grew, it invested in its infrastructure and in addition, it invested in large housing projects throughout the country. These efforts helped bolster China’s already fast growing economy.

中共国的措施某种程度上类似2008年的美国。随着中共国的发展,它对基础设施进行了投资,此外,它还在全国各地投资大型住房项目。这些举措帮助刺激了中共国已经快速增长的经济。

The problem is that China over invested in these random properties all over China and these properties today remain empty.

问题是,中共国在全国各地对这些随机的房地产过度投资,而这些房地产如今仍然空置。

(See below pictures of real estate projects in the middle of China. Seen firsthand in Hubei Province, the epicenter of the Wuhan virus, these complexes are massive but mostly empty.)

(以下是中共国中部地区的房地产项目图片。在武汉病毒的中心湖北省,我们直接看到的这些建筑群规模庞大,但大多是空的。)

There simply are not enough people in the area where these massive complexes were built that make enough money to afford living in these communities. It appears that the Chinese communists’ misunderstanding of supply and demand economics may ultimately be their downfall.

在建造这些大型综合设施的地区,没有足够的人能赚到足够的钱来负担在这些社区的生活。看来中国共产党对供求经济学的误解可能最终导致他们垮台。

Some say, no problem, China will just move all the peasants to these massive complexes. This will be devastating. First of all China needs to feed them. Secondly, as we have learned in the US, people on the dole with no work tend to get involved in drugs and crime. The human spirit needs a purpose – idle hands are the devil’s workshop!

有人说,没有问题,中共国将把所有的农民都转移到这些庞大的综合设施中。这将是毁灭性的。首先,中共国需要养活他们。其次,正如我们从美国所了解到的,没有工作靠失业救济金生活的人容易卷入毒品和犯罪。人的精神需要一个目标——游手好闲是魔鬼的工厂!

2. Related to real estate crisis is the fact cash-to-short-term debt levels are reaching all time lows for real estate companies.

2.与房地产危机相关的事实是,房地产公司的现金-短期债务水平达到历史最低。

These many properties throughout China sit unoccupied, and there is a cost to this. Bloomberg reported in September 2018 –

中共国各地有这么多房产空置,这是有代价的。彭博社2018年9月报道。

Cash-to-short-term debt levels at more than 80 publicly traded real estate companies tracked by Bloomberg were 133 percent on average in the first half, the worst since the first six months of 2015 and down from 297 percent a year earlier. Almost a quarter of developers sport a ratio below 50 percent.

彭博社追踪的80多家上市房地产公司上半年的平均现金-短期债务水平为133%,是2015年上半年以来最糟糕的,低于去年同期的297%。几乎有四分之一的开发商的比率低于50%。

3. China long term debt is also on the rise.

3.中共国的长期债务也在增长。

In addition, Bloomberg noted:

此外,彭博社还指出:

But while business has been booming, developers have also been piling on the debt. Firms have been selling more bonds in the domestic market — and at the cheapest rates as investors shrug off default concerns. Those with dollar-denominated obligations, meanwhile, face higher borrowing costs as the U.S. Federal Reserves continues on its tightening path.

不过,在业务蓬勃发展的同时,开发商也在债台高筑。随着投资者摆脱对违约的担忧,企业一直在国内市场上以最低的利率出售更多债券。与此同时,随着美国联邦储备委员会货币政策持续收紧,那些以美元计价债务面临着更高的借贷成本。

4. The amount of debt in China is massive and the amount is unknown.

4. 中共国的债务数量巨大,数额未知。

The total amount of China debt is unknown with S&P estimating the amount not reported by local communities and banks being over $6 trillion:

中共国的债务总额尚不清楚,据标普估计,地方和银行未报告的债务总额超过6万亿美元:

China may be sitting on a hidden debt pile of as much as 40 trillion yuan ($6 trillion), concealed off-balance-sheet by the country’s local governments, according to research from S&P Global Ratings.

标准普尔全球评级公司的研究显示,中共国可能坐拥高达人民币40万亿元(6万亿美元)的隐性债务,这些债务被中共国地方政府隐藏在资产负债表外。

Many local governments in China raise debt and hold it off their balance sheet, in order to avoid lending limits imposed by central authorities. S&P says that this is a growing problem within the country, and that the amount of debt held this way has likely ballooned in recent years.

很多中共国地方政府通过发债并将其保留在资产负债表之外,以避免超过中央政府设定的放贷限制。标普表示,这是中共国一个日益严重的问题,以这种方式持有的债务数额近年来可能激增。

(Note in the US it is considered fraudulent to maintain off-balance sheet accounts – accounts for liabilities not showing in an entity’s financial statements.)

(注:在美国,维持资产负债表外账户-指未在实体财务报表中显示的负债,被视为欺诈行为。)

5. China’s default risk is huge.

5.中共国违约风险巨大

The government may have to take over these debts as they become insolvent –

政府可能不得不接管这些无力偿还的债务。

Not only is the level of hidden debt held by local governments in the world’s second largest economy rising, but so too is the risk of those debts being defaulted on. Much of the debt is held by so-called local government financing vehicles (LGFVs), and S&P reports that central government may be willing to let these vehicles file for bankruptcy in the future.

世界第二大经济体的地方政府不仅持有的隐性债务水平在上升,这些债务违约的风险也在上升。大部分债务由所谓的地方政府融资平台(LGFVs)持有,标准普尔报告称,中央政府可能愿意让这些平台在未来申请破产。

“Default risk of LGFVs is on the rise. China has opened up the possibility of insolvent LGFVs filing for bankruptcy, but managing the default aftermath is a formidable task for top leadership,” the report noted…

报告说,地方政府融资平台的违约风险正在上升。中共国已经开放了资不抵债的地方政府融资平台申请破产的可能性,但应对违约后果对最高领导层来说是一项艰巨的任务。

The country’s total non-financial sector debt, which includes household, corporate and government debt, will surge to almost 300% of GDP by 2022, up from 242% in 2016. Fears abound that if this debt pile continues to grow, a spectacular blow up could be imminent.

到2022年,中共国非金融部门的债务总额(包括家庭、企业和政府债务)将从2016年242%的GDP飙升至近300%。人们普遍担心,如果这些债务继续增长,一场惊人的债务爆发可能即将来临

6. Companies are leaving China in swarms.

6.企业正成群结队地离开中共国

I personally spoke with one China CEO last year who I know who said that a fellow manufacturing CEO in China said the economy in China was “terrible”. I also spoke with another head of a manufacturing company in China and he moved his operations to Thailand. He said that there was no more room in Vietnam for his company at a reasonable cost because Vietnam was full as companies from China, so he and his manufacturing plant moved to Thailand.

去年,我认识的一位中共国的CEO说,他的一位同行说中共国的经济“很糟糕”。我还和中共国一家制造公司的另一位负责人谈过,他把工厂搬到了泰国。他说,越南已经没有足够的空间以合理的成本容纳他的公司了,因为越南已经挤满了来自中共国的公司,所以他和他的制造工厂搬到了泰国。

These are only two instances but are an indication of the economic crisis in China. The problem with this scenario is it provides China no ability to recover. It can only recover with business but the business is all leaving China. They can’t just continue to build and spend.

这只是两个例子,但却是中共国经济危机的一个迹象。这种设想的问题是,中共国没有能力复苏。经济只能随着商业而恢复,但商业正在全部离开中共国。他们不能只是继续建设和消费。

7. China incurred record corporate bond defaults in 2019.

7. 2019年,中共国发生了创纪录的企业债券违约。

Corporate bond debt defaults set a record in 2019:

2019年企业债券债务违约创下纪录:

The world’s second-biggest economy ended 2019 with record corporate bond defaults, a result of the slowest growth in nearly three decades. More than 150 onshore companies reneged on debt payments totaling about $19 billion. That was up from 120 companies and $17.6 billion in 2018.

截止2019年,世界第二大经济体的企业债券违约创历史纪录,这是近30年来经济增长最慢的结果。150多家在岸公司拖欠了总计约190亿美元的债务。2018年有120家公司,违约金额为176亿美元。

8. China’s ratio of corporate debt to GDP jumped to 160% by the end of 2017.

8. 截至2017年底,中共国企业债务与国内生产总值之比跃升至160%。

China’s ratio of corporate debt to GDP is also large:

中共国的企业债务占GDP的比例也很高:

Fitch, S&P Global and other rating agencies are now warning of more to come as financing dries up for private companies, worsened by the global trade war and a decade of debt-fueled growth coming due. China’s ratio of corporate debt to gross domestic product jumped to a record 160% by the end of 2017 from 101% 10 years earlier.

惠誉、标普全球和其他评级机构目前警告称,随着私营企业融资枯竭,未来还会有更多的此类事件发生。全球贸易战和10年来债务推动的经济增长将导致情况进一步恶化。截至2017年底,中共国企业债务与国内生产总值之比从10年前的101%跃升至创纪录的160%。

9. China’s GDP growth rate before the coronavirus was likely negative.

9. 冠状病毒爆发前,中共国的GDP增长率可能为负。

The BBC reported on official China figures from last month. China’s GDP growth is the lowest its been in nearly 30 years and some economists believe it may actually be negative growth.

BBC从上个月开始报道了中共国的官方数据。中共国的GDP增速是近30年来的最低水平,一些经济学家认为实际上可能是负增长。

10. The Wuhan coronavirus is a killer. It’s killing China’s economy!

10. 武汉冠状病毒是致命的。它正在扼杀中共国的经济!

Hong Kong’s world class airport handled over 71 million passengers in 2019 which is around 200,000 passengers a day. According to the Hong Kong Immigration Department it’s now down to around 7,000 passengers a day. Hong Kong is not the only major airport in China seeing this pattern. The entire country is this way with almost no international flights going to and from China for the past month.

2019年,世界级的香港机场的旅客吞吐量超过7100万人次,每天约20万人次。根据香港入境事务处的数据,现在每天的客流量已降至7000人左右。香港并不是中共国唯一看到这种格局的主要机场。整个国家都是这样,过去一个月几乎没有国际航班往来中共国。

The streets and roads in some cities are closed down. The roads are empty. This all takes its toll on the economy.

一些城市的街道和道路关闭了。路上空无一人。这一切都对经济造成了损害。

11. There are some 400 China companies based on US stock exchanges and they all have suspected fraudulent financial statements.

11. 大约有400家中共国公司在美国证券交易所上市,它们都涉嫌财务报表造假。

Investor Carson Block was on Bloomberg in late May 2020 and he said the following about China companies:

2020年5月底,投资者Carson Block在彭博上发表了以下关于中共国公司的评论:

I believe that a substantial number, more than, let’s call it a substantial majority are committing at least some level of fraud…. The reality is that in China a company that invents 30% of its revenue is considered real. I mean that’s you know if, because if you’re taking other peoples money in China, I mean, there’s an expectation that there is some level of graft and fraud. So 30% fake is real in China.

我相信有相当多的企业,我们称之为绝大多数,至少在某种程度上存在欺诈行为……事实是,在中共国,一家虚报30%的收入的公司被认为是真实的。我的意思是,你知道,如果你在中共国拿别人的钱,人们预计会有某种程度的贪污和欺诈。所以中共国企业造假30%是真的。

North of 50% is where they start to say, ‘Yeah, that’s a fraud’. 30 to 50% is kinda a grey zone. Faking profits without really faking a lot of revenue is the gold standard in China.

虚报收入超过50%时人们会开始说,‘是的,这是欺诈’。30%到50%是一个灰色地带。虚报利润,但又不真正虚报大量收入,是中共国的黄金准则。

In China the people learned to lie under the Communist regime to stay alive. Their lives mean more than their integrity at this point in time. This is why the numbers coming out of China cannot be trusted. Whether they are related to business or the coronavirus, the numbers are fraudulent.

在中共国,人们为了生存学会了在共产主义政权下说谎。在这个时候,他们的生命比诚信更重要。这就是为什么来自中共国的数据不可信。无论是商业还是冠状病毒,这些数字都是虚假的。

To think that only a couple of years ago under the Obama Administration the world was saying that China was soon to pass the US in GDP and reports were that this may have already occurred. Today the US is the world’s strongest and largest economy by far. It is now nearly twice as big as China’s and the US economy is growing while China’s economy is collapsing.

想想看,就在几年前,在奥巴马政府的领导下,全世界还在说,中共国的GDP将很快超过美国,报告显示,这可能已经发生了。如今,美国是世界上最强、最大的经济体。现在美国经济规模几乎是中共国的两倍,美国经济正在增长,而中共国经济正在崩塌。

编辑 【喜马拉雅战鹰团】