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三分之一供应链将退出中国 【中英对照翻译】

新闻来源:《newsroom》;作者:Stamford, Conn

翻译/简评:cathy r;校对:1818; Page: 草根文人

简评:

中美贸易战增加的关税使供应链领导者的运营成本增加了10%,这是迫使他们离开中共国的首要原因,其次供应链领导者想使他们的供应链更有弹性,对消费者更友好,以面对供应链产业的新的挑战。

在此基础上,从中共国撤出的生产线短时间再想回归大概率不可能,西方资本会选择政策更友好,成本更低的代替生产地进行作业,这对中共的就业率,经济增长,及外汇储备是一记重创。在这个大家都用脚投票的年代,瘪了钱袋子的中共能顶到及时?

原文:

Gartner Survey Reveals 33% of Supply Chain Leaders Moved Business Out of China or Plan to by 2023

2023年前,有33%的供应链领导者将业务移出中共国

Tariff Costs and Resilience Concerns are Primary Reasons to Look for Alternative Locations

关税和复原能力是寻找替代地点的主要考虑因素

A Gartner, Inc. survey of 260 global supply chain leaders in February and March 2020 found that 33% had moved sourcing and manufacturing activities out of China or plan to do so in the next two to three years. Survey results show that the COVID-19 pandemic is only one of several disruptions that have put global supply chains under pressure.

加特纳公司在2020年2月份和3月份调查260家全球供应链领导者发现,其中的33%已从中共国转移或计划两到三年之内移出采购和制造业务。调查结果显示,新冠病毒疫情只是将全球供应链置于压力之下的许多破坏因素的一个。

“Global supply chains were being disrupted long before COVID-19 emerged,” said Kamala Raman, senior director analyst with the Gartner Supply Chain Practice. “Already in 2018 and 2019, the U.S.-China trade war made supply chain leaders aware of the weaknesses of their globalized supply chains and question the logic of heavily outsourced, concentrated and interdependent networks. As a result, a new focus on network resilience and the idea of more regional manufacturing emerged. But this kind of change comes with a price tag.”

“早在新冠病毒爆发前,全球供应链就已受到干扰。”卡马拉·拉曼,加特纳供应链运营公司高级经理分析师说。“在2018和2019年,中美贸易战使供应链领导者意识到其全球供应链的弱点,质疑大量外包,集中和相互依赖的网络的合理性。结果,新的关注点聚焦在网络复原力和更多区域制造上。但这种改变需要付出代价。”

Tariff Costs are the Primary Reason to Move Supply Chains

关税成本是转移供应链的主要原因

For decades, China has been the go-to destination for high-quality, low-cost manufacturing, and it has established itself as a key source of supply for almost all major industries including retail and pharmaceutical. However, Gartner research showed that the margin between those companies planning to add jobs in China versus taking them away narrowed sharply in 2019. The primary reason is the increase in tariff costs.

数十年来,中共国一直是高质量,低成本制造业的首选目的地,它已树立起作为关键供应来源地的威望,供应几乎所有行业包括零售业和制药产业。但是,加特纳研究表明,计划在中共国增加工作机会的公司比计划转移走的公司的利润差在2019急剧缩小。首要的原因是关税成本的增加。

“We have found that tariffs imposed by the U.S. and Chinese governments during the past years have increased supply chain costs by up to 10% for more than 40% of organizations. For just over one-quarter of respondents, the impact has been even higher,” Ms. Raman said. “Popular alternative locations are Vietnam, India, and Mexico. The second main reason for moving business out of China is that supply chain leaders want to make their networks more resilient.”

“我们发现,美国和中共国政府在过去几年增加的关税使多于40%的机构供应链成本增加10%。对超过1/4的受访者,其冲击甚至更大。”拉曼女士说“热门的可代替地点是越南,印度和墨西哥。把业务转移出中共国的第二个主要原因是供应链领导者想让他们的网络复原力更强。”

Balancing Efficiency and Resilience

平衡效率和复原力

Only 21% of survey respondents believe that they have a highly resilient network today – meaning that they have good visibility and the agility to shift sourcing, manufacturing and distribution activities around quickly. However, 55% expect to have a highly resilient network in the next two to three years – a reaction to disruptions such as Brexit, the trade war and COVID-19.

只有21%的调查受访者认为他们如今的网络有高度复原力—即有很好的视野,能迅速和灵活地转移采购,制造和分销。但55%期望未来两到三年有一个具有高度弹性的网络——应对英国脱欧,贸易战和新冠病毒疫情所带来的破坏。

However, resilience has a price. Fifty-eight percent of respondents agree that more resilience also results in additional structural costs to the network.

但是拥有复原力需要代价。58%的受访者认同增强弹性的结果是增加网络的结构成本。

“We are at a crossroads in the evaluation of global supply chains that pits just-in-time systems designed to improve operational efficiency against just-in-case plans that emphasize planning and preparing for a range of plausible scenarios,” Ms. Raman added. “To find balance, supply chain leaders must engage in risk management to assess their organization’s willingness to take risk onboard and decide how to quantify that risk against other network objectives such as cost effectiveness.”

“我们处在评估全球供应链的十字路口,对比增加运营效率的实时系统和强调为可能情况作一系列计划和准备的备用系统,究竟孰优孰劣,”拉曼女士补充道,“为了平衡,供应链领导者必须参与风险管理,以评估他们的机构是否愿意承担风险,以及决定如何根据其他网络目标(如成本效益)量化风险。”

Moving Closer to the Customer

更接近消费者

One-quarter of survey respondents stated that they have already regionalized or localized manufacturing to be closer to demand. Despite the cost of adding more players to the ecosystem and increasing the overall network complexity, regional supply chains can ease delays and shortages in times of disruption – if the model is economically viable.

1/4的调查受访者表明,他们已经将制造业区域化或本地化,以更适应需求端。虽然为生态系统增加更多人手有成本,也增加了整体网络的复杂程度,但地区供应链可以在中断时缓解延迟和短缺——如果模型经济上可行。

“Many Western organizations will have to explore new forms of automation on the factory floor to decrease the costs of near- or onshore production. Some also favor a partial option, such as manufacturing in Asia and moving only the final assembly closer to the customer,” Ms. Raman concluded.

“许多西方机构将不得不寻求工厂自动化的新方式,以节约近岸或陆上生产成本。一些人倾向部分选项,如在亚洲生产,只把最后组装线移近消费市场。”拉曼女士总结道。

Methodology

方法系统

Between February and March 2020, Gartner’s Weathering the Supply Chain Storm Survey gathered data from 260 respondents, responsible for supply chain and related functions across a broad range of industries, including high-tech, industrial and food & beverage. Respondents were located in North & South America and the EMEA and APAC regions.

在2020年2月和3月间,加特纳的《经历供应链难关报告》收集260了个反馈数据,包括高科技、工业和食品饮料在内的各种行业的供应链和相关职能。受访者来自北美,南美,欧洲,中东,非洲和亚太地区。

Gartner clients can learn more in the report “Weathering the Storm: Supply Chain Resilience in an Age of Disruption.”

加特纳客户可以在此报告中了解更多情况《经历难关:在破坏时期的供应链复原力》

About the Gartner Supply Chain Practice

关于加特纳供应链运营公司

The Gartner Supply Chain Practice brings together the most relevant analysis, peer-based best practices, metrics and data across Gartner and offers supply chain leaders a platform to make the choices that will drive their business forward. Additional information is available at https://www.gartner.com/en/supply-chain. Follow news and update from the Gartner Supply Chain Practice on Twitter and LinkedIn using #GartnerSC.

加特纳供应链运营公司给您带来最相关的分析,同行业最佳运营案例,加特纳的标准和数据。提供供应链领导者一个选择的平台,拉动企业更进一步。其他相关信息请访问https://www.gartner.com/en/supply-chain。请关注加特纳供应链运营公司的推特和领英的新闻和更新 #GartnerSC.

About Gartner

关于加特纳

Gartner, Inc. (NYSE: IT) is the world’s leading research and advisory company and a member of the S&P 500. We equip business leaders with indispensable insights, advice and tools to achieve their mission-critical priorities today and build the successful organizations of tomorrow.

加特纳公司(NYSE: IT)是世界领先的研究和咨询公司,也是标准普尔500指数成员。我们为业务领导者提供不可或缺的见解、建议和工具,以实现他们当今的任务关键优先级,并构建成功的组织。

Our unmatched combination of expert-led, practitioner-sourced and data-driven research steers clients toward the right decisions on the issues that matter most. We are a trusted advisor and an objective resource for more than 15,000 enterprises in more than 100 countries — across all major functions, in every industry and enterprise size.

我们不可超越的优势,集合专家领衔,从业者反馈和数据的研究,引导客户就最重要的问题做出正确的决策。我们是一个值得信赖的顾问和客观智库,为100多个国家15000多个企业提供服务,横跨每个行业和企业规模的所有主要职能。

编辑:【喜马拉雅战鹰团】Edited by:【Himalaya Hawk Squad】