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川普总统应该与俄罗斯对话以挫败中共国 【中英对照翻译】

新闻来源:《The National Interest》;作者:Christian Whiton

翻译/简评:小小妹;校对:InAHurry; Page: 椰子哦耶

简评:

在当前中共和美国之战日趋激烈的局势下,美国对俄罗斯的态度可以稍微缓解一下:因为如果美国与俄罗斯能摒弃前嫌通力合作,才可以更好的抵制中共国。现在冠状病毒在美国肆虐,中共国不断投毒,所以首要任务是集结盟友才不会腹背受敌。

原文:

Donald Trump Should Talk to Russia to Thwart China

川普总统应该与俄罗斯对话以挫败中共国

Russian President Vladimir Putin is thinking about his country’s place in the world. We in America should be thinking about that too, especially as the long-term conflict with China intensifies. This is a chance to focus more on what we might have in common.

俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京正在考虑该国在世界上的地位。我们美国也应该考虑这一点,尤其是在与中共国的长期冲突加剧之时。这是一个可以更多地关注我们之间可能有的共同点的机会。

Putin published a remarkable 9,000-word article in the National Interest ahead of this week’s delayed celebration in Moscow of the 75th anniversary of the defeat of Nazi Germany. He recounted the immense cost to the Soviet Union of that war, including the deaths of 27 million of its citizens, and defended Soviet leaders for cutting deals with Hitler to buy time to build defenses.

普京本周在莫斯科举行的,被推迟了的庆祝纳粹德国战败75周年的纪念活动之前,在《国家利益》上发表了一篇引人注目的9000字文章。他重述了那场战争给苏联带来的巨大代价,包括其2700万人丧生,并且他还为苏联领导人与希特勒达成协议以争取时间来建立防御体系而辩护。

The foreign policy elite in Europe and the United States will be angered by Putin’s defense, including his observation that Britain and other European governments also cut deals with the Nazis. His mischaracterization of the absorption of the Baltic states by the Soviet Union detracts from his other revisionist arguments, which should interest historians and World War II buffs.

普京的辩护将激怒欧洲和美国的外交政策精英,其中包括他指出英国和其他欧洲政府也与纳粹进行了交易。他对苏联吸收波罗地海国家的错误描述破坏了他对其他修正主义的论据,这应该引起历史学家和第二次世界大战爱好者的兴趣。

But whatever one thinks of Putin’s view of history, his intent is clear: to press for dialogue among the world’s great powers as a way to manage disagreements and limit conflict. The fact that he wrote such a long piece, walking readers through his thinking about the emergence of the modern world and his view of Russia’s place in that world, is helpful. The dialogue that Putin proposes suggests limited rather than expansive foreign policy objectives.

但是,不管人们如何看待普京对历史的解读,他的意图是明确的:敦促世界各大国之间进行对话,以作为解决分歧和限制冲突的一种方式。他写了这么长的文章,引导读者了解他对现代世界的兴起的思考以及对俄罗斯在这个世界中地位的看法,是有帮助的。普京提出的对话暗示了有限的而非扩张性的外交政策目标。

Unfortunately, the West has given Russia scant reason to explore cooperation and would be hard-pressed to design a better program to push Moscow into Beijing’s arms. Washington maintains a complicated patchwork of sanctions on various Russian business sectors, officials and private individuals. Restrictions on energy-related entities in particular seem designed to promote Russia’s cooperation with China, which would be pragmatic given Russia’s abundant natural resources and the ever-growing energy demands of its populous neighbor.

不幸的是,西方没有给予俄罗斯寻求合作的机会,并且很难设计出(比现在西方的对俄态度)更好的,能将莫斯科推入北京怀抱的计划。华盛顿保持着对俄罗斯各行各业,官员和个人实行的复杂的制裁措施。尤其是对能源相关实体的限制,似乎是为了促进俄罗斯与中共国的合作。鉴于俄罗斯有丰富的自然资源,同时他那人口稠密的邻国(中共国)有不断增长的能源需求,这(与中共国合作)将是现实可行的。

Washington imposed many of these penalties for Russia’s 2014 invasion of Ukraine and seizure of Crimea. It is time to consider whether they still make sense. Putin was very careful in choosing small portions of eastern Ukraine to break off in each of two regions with significant ethnic Russian populations and a majority of Russian-language speakers. His move was not the preface to reconstituting the Soviet Union with force, but likely an effort to force Ukraine to make concessions and prevent it from joining NATO. Putin’s absorption of Crimea back into Russia, to which it belonged for most of the time since 1783, was even more strategic in that his target was overwhelmingly ethnically Russian and Russian-speaking.

华盛顿对俄罗斯施加的许多制裁是因为在2014年俄罗斯入侵了乌克兰和没收了克里米亚。现在是时候重新考虑这些制裁是否仍然有意义。普京非常谨慎地选择了乌克兰东部的一小部分地区,以在两个有大量俄罗斯人民和多数俄语使用者的地区分开。他的举动并非以武力的形式重组苏联的序幕,而可能是为迫使乌克兰做出让步并阻止其加入北约的努力。普京将克里米亚吸纳回俄罗斯(自1783年以来的大部分时间克里米亚都曾属于俄罗斯)这具有更大的战略意义,因为他的目标绝大多数是俄罗斯人和讲俄语的人。

After six years of sanctions, neither Crimea nor eastern Ukraine appear any closer to reintegration with Ukraine. Put simply, there is no chance of Russia returning these lands, since doing so would require a war that Ukraine and Europe lack the will or capability to pursue. Furthermore, the penalties Washington imposes now seem likely to harm America more than Russia, with China being the primary beneficiary. The United States should recognize this reality and move on with our relationship with Moscow, even if we still consider the territories to be disputed pending a future settlement.

经过六年的制裁,克里米亚和乌克兰东部似乎都没有与乌克兰重新融合的迹象。简而言之,俄罗斯不可能归还这些土地,因为这样做需要进行一场乌克兰和欧洲都缺乏推行的意愿或能力的战争。此外,华盛顿现在施加的惩罚似乎对美国的伤害大于对俄罗斯的伤害,而中共是主要受益者。美国应该认识到这一现实,并且推进我们与莫斯科的关系,即使我们仍然认为这些领土问题在未来得到解决之前仍存在争议。

It is worth initiating a serious dialogue with Moscow. Putin wrote that Russia is willing to discuss arms control. Even if a breakthrough is unlikely, the conversation itself would give Moscow a diplomatic outlet that doesn’t run through Beijing. Separately, we could cooperate on space exploration, reprising past collaboration, especially since we are closer to technological parity in this field than others.

与莫斯科进行认真的对话是值得的。普京写道,俄罗斯愿意讨论军备控制。即使不太可能取得突破,对话本身也会为莫斯科提供一个不通过北京的外交渠道。另外,我们可以在太空探索方面进行合作,恢复过去的合作,尤其是因为我们在这一领域比其他国家更接近技术均等。

The goal of engagement need not be a dramatic breakthrough, just a reasonable hope that Russia will have some incentive to remain neutral and not aid our adversaries. Moscow would still work with China on some issues, especially energy, but would work with us too and might support us or stay on the sidelines for issues we consider to be really important. This situation would be very attractive to Russia because from its perspective it would be in the balancing position, closer to both Washington and Beijing than we are to one another, and therefore able to get more out of us and China as we compete for their support.

接触的目地不必是一个巨大的突破,而只是一个合理的希望,即俄罗斯将有一定的动机保持中立而不是帮助我们的对手。莫斯科仍将在某些问题上与中共合作,特别是在能源方面,但也将与我们合作,并可能会支持我们或在我们认为非常重要的问题上保持沉默。这种情况对俄罗斯是非常有吸引力的,因为从俄罗斯的角度来看,他将处于平衡位置,比我们彼此更靠近华盛顿和北京,因此在我们争取他们的支持时可以从我们和中共国得到更多。

Everyone has heard of Winston Churchill’s quote that Russia is “a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma,” but there is a second part to the quote: “… but perhaps there is a key. That key is Russian national interest.” Churchill was able to check his deep animosity for the Soviet Union to cooperate in an area where he saw overlap with Moscow’s interests. His pragmatic realism was captured best by another quote: “If Hitler invaded Hell I would make at least a favorable reference to the Devil in the House of Commons.”

每个人都听说过温斯顿·丘吉尔的名句,即俄罗斯“是一个被谜团包裹的谜团”,但这句活还有第二部分:“……但也许有一把钥匙。这把钥匙就是俄罗斯的国家利益。”丘吉尔能够在他认为能与莫斯科在有利益重叠的领域进行合作时,重新审视他对苏联的深切仇恨。他的务实现实主义在另一句话里体现得淋漓尽致:“如果希特勒入侵地狱,我至少会在下议院给魔鬼一个有利的参考。”

Based on his article, Putin may grasp the utility of pragmatic cooperation in a similar manner. As America finally recognizes the magnitude of the fight it has with China, it is crucial to approach Russia with realistic expectations and outcomes that serve both of our interests.

根据他的文章,普京可能以类似的方式掌握务实合作的效用。随着美国终于意识到与中共斗争的激烈性,以符合我们双方利益的,切合实际的期望和成果与俄罗斯接洽是至关重要的。

Christian Whiton, a senior fellow at the Center for the National Interest, is the author of Smart Power: Between Diplomacy and War. He was a State Department senior advisor during the George W. Bush and Trump administrations.

克里斯蒂安·惠顿:是国家利益中心的高级研究员; 是《聪明力量:外交与战争之间》的作者。他曾是乔治W.·布什和川普政府的国务院高级顾问。

编辑:【喜马拉雅战鹰团】