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中共军事实力就是笑话 【中英对照翻译】

來源:AMTI.CSIS

翻译/简评: 战鹰团Victory

PR:小明

BY LIU XIAOBO | MAY 26, 2020

作者:刘晓波,2020年5月26日

简评:

先假设以上数据信息可靠。我们单就数据判断,中美海军实力明显不在一个层次。

海军真实战力差距又远远不是以上简单数据可以说明的。中共向来都是假大空,其所谓的各种战舰是否能形成实际战斗力,非常值得怀疑。大家还记得前阵子停在港口着火的战舰吗?还记得前不久看到的在海上冒着浓烟的航母吗?与其在海面上被身经百战的美国海军当成移动标靶,还不如放进博物馆中。

前不久另一则新闻,某造船厂的领导被抓起来了。试问有多少造战舰的钱进了私人腰包。他们造的这些海上移动棺材,水下移动棺材真能打仗?

解放军将领个个脑满肠肥,夜夜笙歌,除了假擀面杖,连真枪都不一定摸过几次。这样的海军能有战斗力?

事实上,中共海军和美国海军之间的差距何止纸面上几个数字能体现的。百余年以来,美国海军历经千锤百炼,伴随工业的进步、理念的更新,它在实战中不断检验和完善其能力,因而不论从技术装备,还是从人员素质、作战经验等各个方面来讲,都对纸上谈兵的中共海军形成碾压之势。事实上,中共海军根本无力和美国海军进行一场势均力敌的较量。然而,中共党卫军虽无法与美国的军事力量相提并论,他们却可以在街头虐杀手无寸铁的香港勇士甚至妇孺,他们的导弹可能无法命中预定目标,却可以用流氓战术无差别攻击台湾岛,凭借数量优势制造人道灾难。假如中共在行将灭亡时,孤注一掷,发动战争,必将带走许多无辜的生命,这是我们不希望看到的。但愿国际社会能有效的保护香港及台湾人民。

原文:

SINO-U.S. NAVAL WARFARE CAPABILITIES AMID GREAT POWER COMPETITION

中美大国竞争中的海战能力

April 23 marked the 71st anniversary of the founding of the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN). As U.S.-China frictions continue and great power competition becomes the central focus of U.S. defense strategy, the question of just how far the PLAN has come in its development has become critical. Does the PLAN currently pose a threat to the U.S. Navy? And could it soon surpass it?

4月23日是解放军海军建军71周年。随着中美摩擦的持续,大国竞争成为美国国防战略的关注核心。而解放军海军实力的发展现状成为至关重要的问题。解放军海军目前对美国海军会造成威胁吗?有可能很快超越美军吗?

Based on commercially available intelligence and an evaluation model developed by the author, this summary attempts to evaluate the warfare capabilities of Chinese and U.S. naval forces so as to prevent strategic miscalculation on either side.

这次总结基于市场上可买到的情报和笔者构建的评估模型,试图评估中美海军的作战能力,以防止双方做出战略误判。

Service Capabilities

服务能力

In the first two decades of the twenty-first century, the PLAN has undergone significant development. In the past 20 years, the PLAN commissioned 2 conventionally-powered aircraft carriers, 13 nuclear-powered submarines, 24 destroyers, and 30 large frigates. In the same period, the U.S. Navy commissioned 3 nuclear-powered aircraft carriers, 19 nuclear-powered submarines, 39 destroyers, and 19 littoral combat ships. While its numbers are still lower overall, it would seem that the Chinese navy is catching up.

在21世纪的前20年,解放军海军经历了长足的发展,在过去20年,解放军海军有两艘常规动力航母入役,13艘核动力潜艇,24艘驱逐舰,30艘护卫舰。同一时期,美国海军有3艘核动力航母,19艘核潜艇,39艘驱逐舰,19艘濒海战斗舰。虽然总体上战舰数量仍然较少,看起来中共海军正在赶超美军。

Submarine Forces

潜艇部队

The PLAN currently operates 70 submarines, including 4 nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs), 9 nuclear-powered attack submarines (SSNs), and 57 diesel-electric submarines. The 69 submarines of the U.S. Navy, meanwhile, are all nuclear-powered and are comprised of 14 SSBNs, 4 guided missile submarines (SSGNs), and 51 SSNs. While the total number of submarines are nearly the same, the total tonnage is not: the U.S. Navy submarine fleet checks in at 730,000 tons—three times that of the PLAN. This difference reflects the gap between China and the United States in oceangoing (beyond the “first island chain” that rings China) underwater warfare capabilities. Furthermore, the warfare capability of the diesel-electric submarines that make up the bulk of China’s fleet is far behind that of nuclear-powered submarines and is only further diminished by the U.S. Navy’s operation of significant anti-submarine platforms, including 71 P-8 and 73 P-3C land-based anti-submarine aircraft as well as 269 MH-60S shipborne anti-submarine helicopters.

解放军海军现役潜艇有70艘,包含4艘核动力弹道导弹战略潜艇,9艘核动力攻击潜艇,以及57艘柴油电力潜艇。美国海军的69艘潜艇全是核动力,由以下舰艇组成:14艘弹道导弹战略潜艇,4艘核动力导弹潜艇,51艘核动力攻击潜艇。虽然潜艇数量基本相同,但吨位却不同。美军海军的潜艇舰队总吨位73万吨,3倍于解放军海军。这个差距显示了中美远洋(在中共第一岛链之外)水下作战能力。此外,作为中共主力战舰的柴油电力潜艇舰队的作战能力远逊于核潜艇,并且其能力因美国海军重要的反潜艇平台(包括71 P-8和73 P-3C陆基反潜艇飞机,以及269MH-60S舰载反潜艇直升机)的运行而进一步削弱。

Naval Aviation

海军航空部队

Within the first island chain the PLAN enjoys a geographical advantage and will be supported by more than 4,000 aircraft and air defense forces of the PLA Air Force. But the PLAN itself has just 441 fixed-wing aircraft and 118 helicopters, while the U.S. Navy and U.S. Marine Corps have 2,915 fixed-wing aircraft and 1,231 helicopters. If operating beyond the first island chain, the PLAN can only rely on 70 aircraft carried on two aircraft carriers, a significant gap compared with the more than 800 aircraft that can be carried on the 11 aircraft carriers of the U.S. Navy. The gap would only be exacerbated in a scenario that took place within operational range of the United States’ military facilities in Northeast Asia, the Pacific, or the Indian Ocean. And while the U.S. Navy boasts 426 intelligence, reconnaissance, and surveillance aircraft, the PLAN has only 22, which exposes a gap in informatized combat capability beyond the first island chain.

在第一岛链内,解放军海军占有地理优势,可以得到约4000架军机和解放军空军防空力量的支持。但解放军海军只有441架固定翼战机和118架直升机,而美国海军和海军陆战队有2915架固定翼战机和1231架直升机,如果在第一岛链外行动,解放军只能依赖2艘航母和舰载的70架飞机,与美国海军11艘航母和舰载的800多架飞机存在着巨大差距。而如果冲突发生在美国驻东北亚、太平洋、印度洋等地军事设施的作战半径内,这一差距将会更加显著。美军有426架情报、侦察、监视战机,而解放军海军只有22架,这显示了两军在第一岛链外信息化作战能力的差距。

Surface Combat Warships

水面战舰

Currently, the PLAN has 63 ocean-going surface combat warships over 3,000 tons, with a total tonnage of 447,000 tons. By comparison, the 120 naval surface combat ships of the U.S. Navy have a total tonnage of 2 million tons, 4.5 times that of the PLAN. In terms of oceangoing logistics support, the U.S. Navy has 31 fast combat supply ships with a total tonnage of 1.29 million tons, while the PLAN is equipped with only 12 supply ships totaling 330,000 tons. These differences reflect the enormous advantages of the U.S. Navy’s long-range endurance and sustained warfare capabilities. The number of missiles aboard warships tells a similar story: the PLAN has 1,900, only one fifth of the U.S. Navy’s 9,500 missiles (excluding shipborne short-range air defense missiles).

目前,解放军海军有63艘3000吨以上远洋水面战舰,总吨位44.7万吨。相比之下,美军有120艘水面战舰,总吨位200万吨,是解放军的4.5倍。美海军有31艘快速战斗补给舰,总排量33万吨。这些差距显现了美国海军远程持续作战能力的巨大优势。舰载导弹数量也说明相似的问题,解放军海军有1900枚,只有美军数量9500枚的1/5(不含舰载近程防空导弹)。

China has ways to make up for these deficiencies in its near seas. It has embraced an asymmetric strategy, relying on a large number of bases to make up for the weakness of its endurance and ocean support capabilities while equipping its 66 corvettes and 86 missile boats with a total of 950 anti-ship missiles. The large number of land-based anti-ship cruise missiles operated by the PLAN’s coastal defense forces also provide a certain advantage in offshore surface combat operations.

中共有办法在近海海域弥补这些短板。它们采用了不对称战略,依赖大量的基地弥补其续航和远洋支持能力的弱势,并为其66艘轻型护卫舰和86艘导弹艇装备了950枚反舰导弹。解放军海军岸防部队装备的大量陆基反舰巡航导弹也为近海水面作战提供了一定的优势。

Amphibious Forces

两栖部队

Amphibious operations are essential missions for the PLAN given the salience of coastal island combat targets such as Taiwan and disputed islands in the South and East China Seas. The ability to project a large number of troops simultaneously is key in such scenarios, and China’s amphibious forces have developed with this principle in mind. The PLAN currently has 6 amphibious dock landing ships, 40 tank landing ships and 100 small landing craft. This type of ship composition meets the strategic needs of the PLAN, which are entirely different from the U.S. Navy’s need for global force projection. The launch of the Type 075 amphibious assault ship, however, indicates that the PLAN’s amphibious forces are developing in the direction of three-dimensional delivery, which improves long-range force projection.

考虑到明显的沿海岛屿作战目标如台湾、南中国海和东海争议岛屿,登陆作战是解放军海军非常重要的任务。这种情况下同时投送大量部队的能力是关键问题。中共的两栖部队正是基于此原则发展的。解放军海军目前有6艘两栖登陆舰,40艘坦克登陆舰和100艘小型登陆艇。这种舰艇组合符合解放军海军的战略需求,而这和美军全球兵力投送需求完全不同。而075型两栖攻击舰的入役展示了解放军海军的两栖部队正在发展立体投送能力,这增加了其远程运兵能力。

Naval Mine Countermeasure Forces

反鱼雷部队

Naval mine warfare is an important coastal defense mission of the PLAN. Reflecting this, it has 35 mine countermeasure ships, including mine hunting ships and traditional minesweeper ships, compared to the U.S. Navy’s 11 Avenger-class mine countermeasure ships. The U.S. Navy, however, operates 29 MH-53E mine countermeasure helicopters, which can provide more flexible naval mine warfare capabilities.

应对鱼雷战是解放军海军重要的海岸防御任务。反映这一点的是,它们有35艘反鱼雷舰,其中有猎雷舰和传统扫雷舰。而美国海军拥有20架MH-53E型反鱼雷直升机,可以提供更灵活的鱼雷作战能力。

Evaluating the Results

评估结果

Index of Sino-U.S. Naval Warfare Capability

中美海战能力指数

The above chart quantifies the author’s assessment of the relative warfare capability of the U.S. and Chinese navies based on the characteristics of their existing equipment; it does not incorporate any differences in the professional qualities and training levels of military personnel.

以上图表量化了作者基于美中海军现役装备性能,对其相对作战能力的评估;而并未将海军士兵专业素养和训练水平因素考虑在内。

The strategic guidelines for the development of the PLAN are to transform its coastal defense capability into an oceangoing capability and to improve strategic deterrence and counterattack capability, maritime maneuver operations, joint operations, comprehensive defense, and integrated oceangoing support. Within the first island chain, the PLAN has certain geographical advantages. In oceangoing operations in the Western Pacific and the Indian Ocean, however, the PLAN’s disadvantages are still apparent, and there exists a considerable gap between its capabilities and those of the U.S. Navy.

解放军海军发展战略纲领是将其近海海防能力转化为远洋作战能力,增强战略威慑和反击能力,海上机动作战,联合作战,综合防守和集成远洋支持。在第一岛链内,解放军海军享有地理优势。而在西太平洋和印度洋远洋作战中,解放军海军的劣势仍然很明显,其作战能力和美军有相当的差距。

At present, China’s maritime power in the Indo-Pacific region is second only to the United States. At the rate of development in the first two decades of the twenty-first century, the gap between the navies of China and the United States will slowly narrow. But because of differences in naval strategy, it is unrealistic to predict that the PLAN aims to surpass the U.S. Navy. In the foreseeable future, while the PLAN may be able to establish temporary and local advantages within China’s near seas, the significant advantages of the U.S. Navy in dealing with long-term regional or global conflicts will still exist.

现在中共在印太地区的制海权仅次于美国。按照其在21世纪前20年的发展速度,中美海军差距将会逐渐缩小。但是由于海军战略的不同,预测解放军超过美国海军是不现实的。在可预知的将来,当解放军海军在中国近海可能建立临时的地域优势时,美国海军应对长期局部乃至全球性冲突的优势依然非常明显。

About Liu Xiaobo

关于刘晓波—本文作者

Captain Liu Xiaobo (Ret.) is an associate research fellow and director of the World Navy Research Center, National Institute for South China Sea Studies (NISCSS), in Haikou, China. His research focuses on national maritime security policy, sea power, and the Law of the Sea. Prior to joining the NISCSS, Capt. Liu served in the Chinese navy for 25 years, working as a navigation officer aboard the PLAN destroyer Harbin and later as a research associate in the Naval Research Institute.

刘晓波舰长(已退役)是副研究员和世界海军研究中心理事,以及国家南海研究所理事,该所位于中国海口。他的研究专注于国家海上安全政策,海军军力和海洋法。在加入国家南海研究所前,刘舰长在解放军海军哈尔滨号驱逐舰上作为领航官中国海军服役25年,随后在海军研究院做副研究员。

编辑:【喜马拉雅战鹰团】