The Euro to the Pound since 1999 By Gwendelyn J GRiffith

The Euro was created January 1st 1999 so I began tracking my data since then. I began tracking my data points using Google Spread Sheets and then after I had all my points, one for each year since 1999 up to 2017 so 19 total points, I looked at the graph and logically divided the data into three intervals; 1999-2005, 2006-2011 and 2012-2017:

Intervals Divided into Years and Corresponding Colors in Desmos

After I finished splitting, I put each interval into Desmos, a graphing calculator and it looked like this:

Data Points Split into Intervals by Color

My next step was to find the line of best fit for each interval. Basically I had to find a line or curve that best went through each interval. After playing around with sliders and different values of the line, I came up with the following:

Interval One, Two and Three

After finding each line of best fit it was time to find the calculations for the slope of each line. To do this, first I had to find the coordinates that placed the three lines. For Interval One the coordinates were (0, 0.6) (6, 0.7). For Interval Two, the coordinates were (7, 0.68) (12, 0.9). And for Interval Three the coordinates were (13, 0.8) (18, 0.8). I completed the following calculations using the coordinates:

Interval 1 Calculations
Interval 2 Calculations
Interval 3 Calculations

Next I needed to find a best-fit line that went through all three intervals, using the past lines as support. I played around with quadratic, linear and trigonometric lines and found, though not perfect, the linear was best-fit:

Highlighted Overall Line of Best-Fit

My next step was to predict the rate in fifty and ninety-five years. To do that I looked at my graph and marked what the graph suggested where it would be in those years:

Rate of Euro to Pound in Fifty and Ninety-Five Years

The coordinates of the fifty year point is (68, 1.824). This is saying that in year 2067 (coordinate reads 68 because you already count 2017 as one adding an extra value) the Euro will be worth 1.824 pounds. As for the ninety-five year point, the coordinates are (113, 2.634) meaning in year 2112 the value of the Euro to the Pound will be 2.634.

Looking at the line and the values of estimated values in 50 and 95 years, I know they can not be right. I know this for the following reasons; First is that this line is just a line and follows patterns that I inserted into it. The real rate of the Euro to the pound does not go in one strait line. It actually looks more like this:

Euro to Pound since 1999

Looking at this is just one reason. Another is Brexit. Brexit is the term used for the UK leaving the EU (Britain-Exit). When this happens in the next few years, then the pound will surly crash as it has began to do already. It has already dropped 20% since it was announced that Britain would leave the EU. Therefor, it doesn't make sense that the Pound's value will go up from here.

Sources

Desmos Calculator

Information on Euro to Pound

BBC News - Explanation of Brexit

Google Spreadsheet of Intervals

Picture of Exchange Rate

Euro Picture

Created By
Gwendelyn J Griffith
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