Canada in 2050 By: Roodiya Awosanmi

Introduction

Canada in 2050 is definitely going to be much different than it has been in my lifetime so far. In this presentation, I will be making predictions about how I think Canada will look like in 2050. I will be talking about trends, immigration, birth rate, death rate and many other things. I will also be making predictions about what I think my life will look like in 2050. There are so many factors and indicators that go into determining what our countries various communities will look like, and one in particular that I have researched about is the demographics of our first nation communities over several provinces.

Immigration

More than 17 million people have immigrated to Canada over the past 140 years since confederation. Canada has always been a place where many people wanted to live and were promoted to settle in, and the only times that the immigration rates really decreased were both of the world wars.

Trends

Though, there are always a significant amount of people coming to Canada, the immigration rates also fluctuate depending on factors such as laws and worldly issues. Levels of immigration also differ when there are serious problems in other countries and people decide to take refuge in Canada. In the past 30 years the amount of immigrants landed have stayed rather high and will probably remain so because of the harsh conditions in so many places around the world. In 2011, the amount of foreign born people in Canada was 6,775,700 making up over 20% of Canada's population and it has definitely increased over the last few years due to the crisis in Syria,which has resulted in many Syrian refugees coming to Canada. Most of the immigrants that came into Canada were from European countries as well as the United States until the 1960s when the immigrant population started to become much more diverse. We started seeing an increase in the immigrant population from Asia, the middle east, Africa and even places closer like South America and the Caribbean.

This chart summarizes my findings in the paragraph above. As you can see, in the 1900s, the immigrant population spiked due to the promotion of settlers in western Canada. The immigrant population greatly dropped in the 1930s due to the great depression of the Second World War. Starting from 1990, the population started to rise again and and soon started a steady increase.

Predictions

Canada is becoming bigger in the eye of potential immigrants. Due to the wars, unrest and insecurities going on in some parts of the world, many people have been relocating to Canada. The increase shown in statistics of immigrant population and the decrease in birth and natural increase rates, there is good reason to believe that Canada will continue to have a high immigrant rate which will make up a significant portion of the whole population. Because of the unstable conditions of our world such as global warming and political changes that have been brought to view lately, many people are uneasy. Though Canada's economy might not be the greatest at the moment, people still view it as a secure place because of the diversity and reliability.

This chart sums up my predictions on migration and natural increase. This chart shows that in the future, net migration will be the major contributing factor to Canada's population. The net migration is obviously higher than the natural increase.
First Nations

More than 18 million people in Canada have reported to have an indigenous background and around 1.4 million identify as an aboriginal person. In 2010, there were 718 aboriginal communities in Canada including, first nations, Inuits and the metis. The aboriginal population only accounts for 3% of Canada's overall population.

Trends

The aboriginal communities in Canada are not very populous and they have shown patterns of growth in the early to mid 2000s, but in the past few years, they have not shown much growth in population. There has been research that estimated that the amount of aboriginal people in Canada could reach 1.7 to 2.2 million by 2031. Though this is a positive and reassuring, the reality is very different. The aboriginal people of Canada have not had the most ideal pasts. Many of their ancestors were forcefully assimilated into the "Canadian Culture" and were also taken advantage of in the early days of this country. Aboriginal communities have the highest rates of suicide in youths in Canada. Residential schools were a big part of Canada's effort to make the indigenous people "civilized". Since the effort was to take away their history and heritage, many of the people have lost track of their whole past.This is partly why so many aboriginal people fall into depression and develop addictions. if these trends continue, it is sad to think that the population might greatly decrease.

This was a census taken in 2006 of the aboriginal population differences from 2001 to 2006 in the 13 provinces and territories. This graph shows a drastic difference in the populations of aboriginal people between Atlantic provinces and western. There also shows a very low amount of people in territories like Yukon but this is very easy to explain because of the low amount of people in those places in general.

Predictions

Some research shows that the first nations population might increase more than it has been recently, but with other factors affecting the growth of the communities, that might not be true. my predictions are that the first nation communities will start to decline slowly, but will hopefully pick up again, because of the government's talks of bettering the lives of the first nations people and to increase their quality of life. Again, I do not know what will happen in the future and these are only observations based on my research. I hope that the government will realize the severity of their situations and do something to help it.

Demographics

Birth rate

The fertility rate in Canada was an average of 1.61 births per woman in 2012. Throughout the late 1920s and 1930s, the fertility rate dropped due to the great depression and the Second World War. The fertility rate in Canada peaked in the late 1950s when there was also a peak in the baby boom generation leading to an average of 3.94 births per woman. Birth rates also have to do with different factors including social changes, and after the 1960s, woman were seen more in the work force and the influence that religion had decreased, which lead to a higher use of contraceptives. After this, the age at childbirth and age at first childbirth began to rise and the average age at childbirth in 2011 was about 28.5 years old.

The graph above shows the rise in the birth rate around the time of the baby boom and then the rapid increase around the time of women coming into the workforce more. this graph also shows the decline of the birth rate in recent years. This further solidifies my predictions about the birth rate continuing on a decline.

Death rate

According to statistics Canada, the age standardized mortality rate per thousand people was 4.9 in 2012. The most recent study of 2016 showed that the death rate was 8.5 deaths per 1000 population. There has obviously been a big jump between those 4 years. The high death rate to low birth rate has been making a bit of a problem for Canada's population growth, but as i said earlier, the immigration makes a lot of it up. Canada has an aging population and this leads to a problem economically because this means that there will be less taxpayers to support them. Many people in Canada are also getting to the stage where death might be near and for the average Canadian that age is 81, this is also the life expectancy. Life expectancy has risen because of the advancing technology. Though there are aging people, the capacity of doctors to save people has gotten much better, and not many people are dying. There is also a low infant mortality rate and this also decreases the death rate.

Natural increase rate

The natural increase rate is the difference between the number of births and deaths. With the number of births and deaths being low, the natural increase has decreased with it. About 30 years ago, the natural increase was about 200,300, but The calculations for 2009 showed the natural increase rate to be 142,400. Natural increase dropped to an all time low of 105,000 in 2002,but soon began to pick up as the death and birth rates also did. In 2015, the natural increase rate was 3.4 per 1000 population. The expected population for Canada in 2053 is about 42 million people compared to the 36 million people there are at the moment.

This graph shows the total growth in Canada and the growth according to the migratory and natural increase rates. It also shows the predictions up until 2061. As you can see, the natural increase rate has just been decreasing and is projected to keep on that steady decline.

Predictions

My predictions are that there will be much less people and all of the above indicators will continue decreasing for a long period of time until Canada starts gaining more immigrants and then start having more children. I predict that in my lifetime, these trends will not change very much and the demographics will remain very similar to the current demographics of Canada. I agree with the graph above. there might be little growths over the years leading up to it, but my prediction is that the natural increase rate will be around 0.5 to 1%.

Video

Below is a great video that sums up my predictions of natural increase, birth and death rate differing over several provinces. It talks about the the aging population and how recently, provinces have been relying on international and provincial immigration rather that natural increase. This video also talks about the differences in population growth rates of the 13 provinces and territories.

Audio

The following is a recording of me describing what my life will look like in 2050. I will be talking about where I think I will be living, and how my life will be different from what my parents lives are currently. Though, these things will be educated guesses based on the information I have collected, there are many other factors that I have not considered that might determine what my future will hold.

Conclusion

In conclusion, from the above points that I have stated, Canada is going to be a similar but also very different country to the one that we know today. Canada will increase in population size just like most countries do but there will likely be a drop in the natural increase rate. Because of the issues happening in the world, Canada will probably become a place where people seek refuge and will come to live. The aging population will lead to some struggles because of the decreased amount of taxpayers and might put a dent in the economy. Overall, Canada may be faced with some obstacles, but will hopefully still remain a beautiful and prosperous country that it is today.

Works Cited

Population growth: Migratory increase overtakes natural increase. (2016). Retrieved December 23, 2016, from http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/11-630-x/11-630-x2014001-eng.htm

(n.d.). Statistics Canada: Canada's national statistical agency / Statistique Canada : Organisme statistique national du Canada. Canadian Demographics at a Glance: Population growth in Canada. Retrieved December 22, 2016, from http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/91-003-x/2007001/4129907-eng.htm

(n.d.). Free data & statistics, data collection, analysis, visualization and sharing - knoema.com. Canada Population Rate of natural increase, 1950-2015 - knoema.com. Retrieved December 22, 2016, from http://knoema.com/atlas/Canada/topics/Demographics/Population/Rate-of-natural-increase

(n.d.). Statistics Canada: Canada's national statistical agency / Statistique Canada : Organisme statistique national du Canada. Ninety years of change in life expectancy. Retrieved December 23, 2016, from http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/82-624-x/2014001/article/14009-eng.htm

(n.d.). Statistics Canada: Canada's national statistical agency / Statistique Canada : Organisme statistique national du Canada. Canadian Demographics at a Glance: Figure 5 Total fertility rate in Canada, 1926 to 2005. Retrieved December 22, 2016, from http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/91-003-x/2007001/figures/4129893-eng.htm

(n.d.). Affaires autochtones et du Nord Canada / Indigenous and Northern Affairs Canada. First Nations in Canada . Retrieved December 23, 2016, from http://www.aadnc-aandc.gc.ca/eng/1307460755710/1307460872523

(n.d.). The Canadian Encyclopedia. Demography of Indigenous People - The Canadian Encyclopedia. Retrieved December 23, 2016, from http://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.ca/en/article/aboriginal-people-demography/

(n.d.). Ministry of Finance / Ministère des Finances. Ontario Population Projections Update. Retrieved December 21, 2016, from http://www.fin.gov.on.ca/en/economy/demographics/projections/

(n.d.). Census Program. Figure 2 Annual number of landed immigrants in Canada, 1852 to 2010. Retrieved December 22, 2016, from http://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-recensement/2011/as-sa/98-310-x/2011003/fig/fig3_1-2-eng.cfm

Credits:

Created with images by abbybatchelder - "IMG_2050" • Jim Sorbie - "20160425-DSC_2050" • francoise14 - "tipi teepee sabtuan" • Jared Wong - "Old people looking at something" • ambroochizafer - "father ramazan eid" • ElasticComputeFarm - "canadian flag canada maple" • BiblioArchives / LibraryArchives - "Wanduta (Red Arrow), from the Sioux Valley Dakota Nation, in the Oak Lake area, Manitoba, ca. 1913 / Wanduta (Flèche rouge), de la nation des Dakota de Sioux Valley, dans la région d’Oak Lake, Manitoba, vers 1913" • be creator - "Child" • ikkio - "oldnicetalking" • karenwarfel - "twins boys babies" • ferobanjo - "ice skating ice-skating skating" • Randy Le'Moine Photography - "Times Square Fisheye" • MichaelGaida - "flower meadow flowers nature" • Je suis Samuel - "The Old People and the Cenotaph" • tpsdave - "canada sunset sky"

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