The fertility rate in Canada was an average of 1.61 births per woman in 2012. Throughout the late 1920s and 1930s, the fertility rate dropped due to the great depression and the Second World War. The fertility rate in Canada peaked in the late 1950s when there was also a peak in the baby boom generation leading to an average of 3.94 births per woman. Birth rates also have to do with different factors including social changes, and after the 1960s, woman were seen more in the work force and the influence that religion had decreased, which lead to a higher use of contraceptives. After this, the age at childbirth and age at first childbirth began to rise and the average age at childbirth in 2011 was about 28.5 years old.
The graph above shows the rise in the birth rate around the time of the baby boom and then the rapid increase around the time of women coming into the workforce more. this graph also shows the decline of the birth rate in recent years. This further solidifies my predictions about the birth rate continuing on a decline.
According to statistics Canada, the age standardized mortality rate per thousand people was 4.9 in 2012. The most recent study of 2016 showed that the death rate was 8.5 deaths per 1000 population. There has obviously been a big jump between those 4 years. The high death rate to low birth rate has been making a bit of a problem for Canada's population growth, but as i said earlier, the immigration makes a lot of it up. Canada has an aging population and this leads to a problem economically because this means that there will be less taxpayers to support them. Many people in Canada are also getting to the stage where death might be near and for the average Canadian that age is 81, this is also the life expectancy. Life expectancy has risen because of the advancing technology. Though there are aging people, the capacity of doctors to save people has gotten much better, and not many people are dying. There is also a low infant mortality rate and this also decreases the death rate.
Natural increase rate
The natural increase rate is the difference between the number of births and deaths. With the number of births and deaths being low, the natural increase has decreased with it. About 30 years ago, the natural increase was about 200,300, but The calculations for 2009 showed the natural increase rate to be 142,400. Natural increase dropped to an all time low of 105,000 in 2002,but soon began to pick up as the death and birth rates also did. In 2015, the natural increase rate was 3.4 per 1000 population. The expected population for Canada in 2053 is about 42 million people compared to the 36 million people there are at the moment.
This graph shows the total growth in Canada and the growth according to the migratory and natural increase rates. It also shows the predictions up until 2061. As you can see, the natural increase rate has just been decreasing and is projected to keep on that steady decline.
My predictions are that there will be much less people and all of the above indicators will continue decreasing for a long period of time until Canada starts gaining more immigrants and then start having more children. I predict that in my lifetime, these trends will not change very much and the demographics will remain very similar to the current demographics of Canada. I agree with the graph above. there might be little growths over the years leading up to it, but my prediction is that the natural increase rate will be around 0.5 to 1%.
Below is a great video that sums up my predictions of natural increase, birth and death rate differing over several provinces. It talks about the the aging population and how recently, provinces have been relying on international and provincial immigration rather that natural increase. This video also talks about the differences in population growth rates of the 13 provinces and territories.
The following is a recording of me describing what my life will look like in 2050. I will be talking about where I think I will be living, and how my life will be different from what my parents lives are currently. Though, these things will be educated guesses based on the information I have collected, there are many other factors that I have not considered that might determine what my future will hold.
In conclusion, from the above points that I have stated, Canada is going to be a similar but also very different country to the one that we know today. Canada will increase in population size just like most countries do but there will likely be a drop in the natural increase rate. Because of the issues happening in the world, Canada will probably become a place where people seek refuge and will come to live. The aging population will lead to some struggles because of the decreased amount of taxpayers and might put a dent in the economy. Overall, Canada may be faced with some obstacles, but will hopefully still remain a beautiful and prosperous country that it is today.
Population growth: Migratory increase overtakes natural increase. (2016). Retrieved December 23, 2016, from http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/11-630-x/11-630-x2014001-eng.htm
(n.d.). Statistics Canada: Canada's national statistical agency / Statistique Canada : Organisme statistique national du Canada. Canadian Demographics at a Glance: Population growth in Canada. Retrieved December 22, 2016, from http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/91-003-x/2007001/4129907-eng.htm
(n.d.). Free data & statistics, data collection, analysis, visualization and sharing - knoema.com. Canada Population Rate of natural increase, 1950-2015 - knoema.com. Retrieved December 22, 2016, from http://knoema.com/atlas/Canada/topics/Demographics/Population/Rate-of-natural-increase
(n.d.). Statistics Canada: Canada's national statistical agency / Statistique Canada : Organisme statistique national du Canada. Ninety years of change in life expectancy. Retrieved December 23, 2016, from http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/82-624-x/2014001/article/14009-eng.htm
(n.d.). Statistics Canada: Canada's national statistical agency / Statistique Canada : Organisme statistique national du Canada. Canadian Demographics at a Glance: Figure 5 Total fertility rate in Canada, 1926 to 2005. Retrieved December 22, 2016, from http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/91-003-x/2007001/figures/4129893-eng.htm
(n.d.). Affaires autochtones et du Nord Canada / Indigenous and Northern Affairs Canada. First Nations in Canada . Retrieved December 23, 2016, from http://www.aadnc-aandc.gc.ca/eng/1307460755710/1307460872523
(n.d.). The Canadian Encyclopedia. Demography of Indigenous People - The Canadian Encyclopedia. Retrieved December 23, 2016, from http://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.ca/en/article/aboriginal-people-demography/
(n.d.). Ministry of Finance / Ministère des Finances. Ontario Population Projections Update. Retrieved December 21, 2016, from http://www.fin.gov.on.ca/en/economy/demographics/projections/
(n.d.). Census Program. Figure 2 Annual number of landed immigrants in Canada, 1852 to 2010. Retrieved December 22, 2016, from http://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-recensement/2011/as-sa/98-310-x/2011003/fig/fig3_1-2-eng.cfm