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中共国铁幕:如果中共国破产,会发生什么 【中英对照翻译】

作者:Salvatore Babones

消息来源:the national interest 《国家利益》

翻译/简评:victory

PR:Julia Win

简评:

中共无疑已经内忧外患,四面楚歌。它们的垮塌只是时间问题。我们最关心的是它需要多长时间,最终以什么方式灭亡。而我最不想看到的方式就是拉下铁幕和全世界决裂,继续把中共国百姓关起门来洗脑,奴役。那无疑对每一个中共国人都将是灾难。很多无辜的生命将会被牺牲,生活会再次回到无限黑暗之中。

不但如此,中共存在一天,就会对全世界造成极大威胁。这次给全世界投放病毒,在西方民主国家利用Antifa制造骚乱,想必后面还有大家意想不到的、更下作的方式来祸患全人类。共产党一日不除,全人类都无法安全生活。

至此,相信全球反共联盟会看到这一点,并尽快行动,彻底结束这个人类文明的毒瘤。

Fortress China: What Could Happen if Beijing Goes Bust

中共国铁幕:如果中共国破产,会发生什么

The China wave is receding fast, and what will remain is a smaller, more compact, less permeable country that neither welcomes the world in nor is eager to go abroad. Individual Chinese people, of course, will continue to be among the most mobile in the world, just as they were during the high Ming-era of the long sixteenth century. But the country will turn inward, seek to exclude foreign influences, and focus on stability overgrowth. Not for nothing is Xi Jinping called the Good Emperor: he is returning the country to its neo-Confucian, Han Chinese, Ming Dynasty roots. Welcome to Fortress China.

by Salvatore Babones

中共国风潮正在快速衰退,剩下的将是一个,相对较小,紧凑,而且难以渗透的国家,即不欢迎外人进来,也不愿意到外面去。当然,部分中国人还继续是世界上最具流动性的,就像在曾经漫长的16世纪一样。但这个国家会变得闭关自守,试图排除外来影响,专注于稳定过度增长。习近平被称为好皇帝是有原因的。他要让这个国家返璞归真,带回到新儒学,汉文化和明朝。欢迎来到铁幕中共国。

Pity Xi Jinping. Less than four years ago, he was the anti-Trump, the toast of Davos, the hero of the World Economic Forum, promising to "pursue a well-coordinated and inter-connected approach to develop a model of open and win-win cooperation" and "develop a model of fair and equitable governance in keeping with the trend of the times." WEF Chairman Klaus Schwab lauded China's "responsive and responsible leadership in providing all of us with confidence and stability."

很可惜习近平。不到4年前,他曾是那个反川普,达沃斯的红人,世界经济论坛的英雄,承诺要“ 坚持协同联动,创造开放共赢的合作模式”和“ 坚持与时俱进,打造公正合理的治理模式” 世界经济论坛主席Klaus Schwab 称赞中国为“负责任的,及时响应的领导者,为我们所有人提供信心和稳定”。

Xi is still the anti-Trump, but that hasn't given him the super-powers he needs to make China great again. Or even, as he more modestly states his goals, to make China a "moderately prosperous society" that promotes "the building of a community with a shared future for mankind." The coronavirus put paid to the first, and China's post-virus full court press foreign policy offensive has made a joke of the second.

习近平还是反川普的,但这并没有给他使中共国再次伟大的超能力。甚至,如他更谦虚的说出的目标,把中共国建设成“小康社会”推动“构建人类命运共同体“。新冠病毒让第一个目标成为泡影,而中共国后病毒时期全面施压的攻击性外交政策使得第二个目标成为笑话。

China faces an ongoing constitutional crisis in Hong Kong, airspace incidents with Taiwan, chronic tensions over its militarization of the South China Sea, a tariff war with Australia, a tense border standoff with India, an abrupt end to its post-Brexit honeymoon with the United Kingdom, a battle with Canada over the extradition of a Huawei executive to the United States, and an American election campaign in which the two sides are vying for the title of toughest on China.

中共国在香港面对着持续的宪法危机;同台湾的领空冲突事件;南中国海军事化的长期紧张关系;与澳大利亚的关税战;和印度紧张的边界对峙;与英国脱欧后的短暂蜜月期戛然而止;因华为副董事长引渡美国而与加拿大发生冲突,而在美国大选中,两党都争着表现谁对中共国强硬。

All it would take is a rupture with Russia to make Xi's annus horribilis complete, and there are signs that Trump is trying to foster just that. Trump's suggestion that he might invite Vladimir Putin's Russia back into the G7 was a strikingly unsubtle move to build a global anti-China coalition. It probably won't work -- not least because America's G7 allies won't hear of it -- but it must still ring alarm bells in Beijing. The last thing China needs is another problem.

只要再和俄罗斯决裂,就能让习近平彻底完成这最可怕一年,而有迹象表明,川普正在促成这件事。川普暗示他可能会邀请普京的俄罗斯重返G7是个非常明显的举动,意在建立一个全球反中共国联盟。这可能行不通——不仅是因为美国的G7联盟不能接受——但这一定也已经给北京敲响警钟。现在中共国再出新的问题,就会是最后一根稻草。

Since the proclamation of the People's Republic in 1949, China has never been beleaguered by so many simultaneous domestic and foreign policy challenges. So far, Xi seems inclined to double-down: his answer to each challenge has been to open another policy front. But as each one goes horribly wrong, a day of reckoning must come. Either China will have to back down, as it did in December's Phase One trade agreement calling for a truce in the US-China trade war, or risk going bust. Increasingly, it looks like Xi has chosen the latter.

自中共国1949年宣布建政以来,它们从来没有同时被这么多内忧外患困扰。目前,习近平好像打算双倍加码:他对每个挑战的回应都是新的政策防线。但是每次都是可怕的错误,算总账的时候不远了。要么中共国必须让步,就如它们在12月份第一阶段贸易协议时呼吁停止中美贸易战,要么就等着完蛋。越来越感觉,习近平选择了后者。

What would it look like if China "goes bust"? Forget about a Gordon Chang style breakup of China, or a Paul Allison style great power war. If China goes bust, think of a Ming Dynasty style New Great Wall: China will recede into itself.

如果中共国破产会怎么样?不要指望中共国会发生Gordon Chang式的分裂,或者Paul Allison式的大国战争。如果中共国破产,想象一下明朝式的新长城:中共国会退守闭关。

China has already walled off its internet, and it is increasingly seeking to decouple its computer hardware from global production networks. Chinese internet giants like the famed Baidu, Alibaba, and Tencent (BAT) have singularly failed to break out of their home market; China's best-known internet breakout is TikTok. China has built its own credit card network (UnionPay), but it is singularly a network for Chinese cardholders. Exports make up a chronically declining proportion of China's GDP, and unlike Japanese and South Korean companies in earlier decades, Chinese firms have failed to establish a significant presence manufacturing overseas.

中共国已经为其互联网建立墙,而且正在加速和全球电脑硬件制造网脱钩。中共国互联网巨头如著名的百度,阿里巴巴,腾讯很奇怪的难以打开国际市场;中共国最知名的互联网突破海外市场案例是抖音。中共国建立了自己的信用卡网络(银联),但很特别的只是为中共国用户的支付网络。出口所占中共国GDP的比例长期下降,不像几十年前的日本和韩国公司,中共国的企业没能建立起重要的海外生产基地。

Xi Jinping's signature foreign policy doctrine, the Belt & Road Initiative (BRI), has been exposed for what it always was: a subsidy program that only bought influence as long as the subsidies kept flowing. Now that money is tight and China is reneging on its extravagant promises of generous aid, countries as different as Indonesia and Nigeria are seeking new partners for their ambitious development plans. And in the current coronavirus-influenced climate, it's unlikely that any additional first-world countries will be signing up to the BRI.

习近平的标志性外交政策,一带一路倡议也现出原形:一个只要补贴继续就能买影响力的补贴项目。 现在中共国也资金紧张,它们已经在违背慷慨援助的大方承诺。和印尼,尼日利亚一样不同的国家正在为其雄心勃勃的发展计划找新的伙伴。在当前疫情影响的大环境下,不会有任何新的第一世界国家参与一带一路。

The China wave is receding fast, and what will remain is a smaller, more compact, less permeable country that neither welcomes the world in nor is eager to go abroad. Individual Chinese people, of course, will continue to be among the most mobile in the world, just as they were during the high Ming-era of the long sixteenth century. But the country will turn inward, seek to exclude foreign influences, and focus on stability overgrowth. Not for nothing is Xi Jinping called the Good Emperor: he is returning the country to its neo-Confucian, Han Chinese, Ming Dynasty roots.

中共国风潮正在快速衰退,剩下的将是一个,相对较小,紧凑,而且难以渗透的国家,即不欢迎外人进来,也不愿意到外面去。当然,部分中共国人还继续是世界上最具流动性的,就像在曾经漫长的16世纪一样。但这个国家会变得闭关自守,试图排除外来影响,专注于稳定过度增长。习近平被称为好皇帝是有原因的。他要让这个国家返璞归真,带回到新儒学,汉文化和明朝。

Welcome to Fortress China.

欢迎来到铁幕中共国

编辑:【喜马拉雅战鹰团】Edited by:【Himalaya Hawk Squad】