Modelling change project By mathilde philippson

I investigated the aged for people that are touched by lungs and bronchus cancer. Touched by males, over years.

  1. Males
  2. From 1992 to 2013
  3. Lungs and bronchus
  4. Program used "DESMOS"
  5. Calculation of y-intercepts, slopes,...
  6. x-axes year
  7. y-axes Age-Adjusted Invasive Lung and Bronchus Cancer Incidence for Males
  8. Outliers
  9. Trends
  10. ect...
This is a graph of the the statistics, without a line of best fit
My first interval was from 1992 to 1998, though I named them 0 to 6 so it is easier to analyze and see.
The second interval had place from 1999 to 2005, this is my middle interval and it is also the one that contains my outlier because since in number 12 (2004), on the graph we can see it suddenly gets down. To be more specific, in 11 (2003) the numbers are at 82.2, it than lowers down of 6.5, after wards in 13 (2005) it goes back up of 4.5 and becomes back more "normal". After long researches I was not able to figure out the reason why this small outlier took place.
The green interval represents the 3 and last interval it lasts from the graph. There is not so much to say about it, it is decreasing, like the whole process.

PREDICTION:

I made predictions of how my graph would look like in the next 50 and 95 years. The result were pretty disappointing because it was negative which is not possible. Though I will explain it in more detail below.

Predictions for the next 50 year: At point 71 (2063) the coordinates would be -15.5 which doesn't make sense since it is not possible to be a negative number of people touched by lungs and bronchus cancer. This fact is not possible because the limited coordinate is (-,0) because we can not go lower than 0. It is possible but hardly achievable to get to 0, because it would mean that there were 0 people touched by cancer.

The predictions for the next 95 years: At point 116 so in year 2108 the coordinates would be at -88.5 is even more impossible than the predictions for the next 50 years. Since it is just like the first one so more explanation are not sesasary.

My trends and analises

My big line of best fit (0-21) is definitely decreasing, it is going down very gradualy at the beginning and more slowly at the end, which makes a lot of sense since the discoveries of how to hell cancer are getting minor because so much progress was made from 1192-2004. Thought this line is pretty constant, and decreasing. I can also analize that the decreasing trend is stabilizing through the years.

The orange trend show year 0-6, it deacreases of 5.2 which is a lot in 7 years, is this trend there is no real outlier, but when we analyze it more carefully we can see that the beggining decreasing the middle increasing a very little bit until the end where it goes back normal.

The red trend lasts from 7-15. This is the trend that shows the little outlier which I explained in details above.there is a change from 88.2-80.2 so 8 of difference. Most of it is deacreasing except after the outlier.

The blue trend is stabilizing it is only deaceasing, there is no incrasing at all, it is different than all the other lines. The blue line is the last one it is a difference of 13.4though is really decreasing a lot, more than the other trends

Credits:

Created with images by 3dman_eu - "refugees economic migrants financial equalization"

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