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我们将与冠状病毒大流行一起生活到2021年 【中英对照翻译】

新闻来源:bloomberg 《布隆伯格》June 18, 2020, 5:00 (6月18日, 2020. 5:00PM)

作者:Michelle Fay Cortez / 米歇尔·费·科尔特斯

翻译/简评:文意; 校对:LEFTGUN / JohnwallisPage: 拱卒

简评:

自冠状病毒全世界绵延以来,学术界,政治界和社会上各种团体都在对它的蔓延和传播进行预测。 很多文章都是有倾向性和目的, 从这些现象我们可以清楚的看到把科学政治化的危害。是用生命来作为代价的。比如 羟基氯奎在治疗新冠病毒中,显示了非常良好的临床效果,但却没有被主流学术媒体接受反而在攻击它的效果。 在川普总统公开提出他使用羟基氯奎因时, 还有很多人攻击他。 从这一点我们清楚的看到了各种势力的斗争的结果是更多的人失去了生命。 疫苗不能很快研发成功会对抑制疫情的发展有很大的影响, 但如果羟基氯奎能普及使用的话,死亡比例也许会相对的控制住。 再加上社交上保持距离,注意清洁消毒,世界各国的经济放开有可能会相对安全。 如果长时间世界经济停摆的话, 会对世界人民的生活和安全造成极大危害。世界正处在一个非常时期, 在治理新冠病毒时, 世界各国组织,科技界,学术界和政府部门,应该多一些事实少一些政治和私心。

原文:

We Will Be Living With the Coronavirus Pandemic Well Into 2021

我们将与冠状病毒大流行一起生活到2021年

Most experts believe a vaccine won’t be ready until next year. It’s time to reset our expectations and change our behavior.

大多数专家认为疫苗要到明年才能准备好。是时候重新调整我们的期望值和改变我们的日常行为。

A family member mourns at the grave of a Covid-19 victim at the Vila Formosa cemetery in Sao Paulo, Brazil on April 29, 2020. 2020年4月29日,在巴西圣保罗的维拉福莫萨公墓,一位家庭成员在新冠病毒遇难者的墓前哀悼。

The virus is winning. That much is certain more than six months into a shape-shifting pandemic that’s killed more than 454,000 people worldwide, is gaining ground globally and has disrupted lives from Wuhan to Sao Paulo.

病毒正在获胜。可以肯定的是在过去6个多月内,一场改变现代生活方式的大流行,在全球造成超过454,000人死亡,在全球继续肆虐流行,并扰乱了从武汉到圣保罗的人民的生活。

While promising, fast-moving vaccine projects are underway in China, Europe and the U.S., only the most optimistic expect an effective shot to be ready for global distribution this year.

尽管中国、欧洲和美国正在进行有希望的、快速的疫苗项目,但只有最乐观的人才预计今年全球会有有效的疫苗推出。

If, as most experts believe, an effective vaccine won’t be ready until well into 2021, we’ll all be co-existing with the coronavirus for the next year or longer without a magic bullet. And this next phase of the crisis may require us to reset our expectations and awareness and change our behavior, according to public-health professionals.

如果像大多数专家所相信的那样,有效的疫苗要到2021年才能准备好,那么在未来一年或更长时间里,我们都将在没有灵丹妙药之下与冠状病毒共存。公共卫生专业人士表示,在危机的下一阶段中,我们可能需要重设期望值和意识和改变我们的行为。

In their view, success isn’t defined as returning to life as it was in 2019. Rather, it’s about buying time and summoning the staying power and policy flexibility to limit the destructive capacity of an expanding pandemic, which may result in global deaths of more than one million according to one estimate, until there are medical tools to effectively treat and immunize against the virus.

在他们看来,成功的定义不是回归到2019年那种生活方式。相反,它是在于争取时间,调动持久力和政策的灵活性,来遏制不断扩大的流行病的破坏能力,根据一项估计,这种破坏能力可能导致全球死亡超过100万,直到有医疗工具来有效治疗和免疫病毒。

“People are fatigued. They mistakenly feel that things were going away,” said Cameron Wolfe, an infectious-disease doctor and associate professor of medicine at Duke University. “We’re going to have to figure out a way to live with this.”

"人们感到疲劳。他们错误地觉得事情正在消失,"传染病医生、杜克大学医学副教授卡梅隆·沃尔夫说。"我们必须想办法去忍受它。”

Pedestrians walk past customers sitting outside at a bar in Tucson, Arizona on May 11, 2020. 2020年5月11日,在亚利桑那州图森的一家酒吧,行人走过坐在户外的顾客。

Complicating matters, the perceived threat varies from neighborhood to neighborhood, let alone country to country. Much depends on the severity of local outbreaks and the effectiveness of testing, contact tracing, social distancing, hospital systems and public-health messaging that is free of political shading.

使事情复杂化的是,对病毒危险的认知是因地而异,更不用说国与国之间认知的不同。 很大程度上取决于,当地疫情的严重程度以及检测的有效性、接触者的追踪、社交距离,医疗系统和不受政治影响的公共卫生信息。

Leaders such as U.S. President Donald Trump, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson or Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro have seen their poll numbers crumble at least in part because of high infection rates and deaths from Covid-19, the disease spawned by the virus. In many instances, messages from the top have seemed to conflict with the advice of experts, or drowned out the guidance of government agencies. That has created confusion and mistrust and invited people to view public-health information through a partisan lens.

美国总统唐纳德·川普、英国首相鲍里斯·约翰逊和巴西总统博尔索纳罗等领导人的民调数字崩溃部分原因是由于该病毒引起的高感染率和死亡率所致。在许多情况下,来自高层的信息似乎与专家的建议相冲突,或者淹没了政府机构的指导。这造成了混乱和不信任,使人们从党派的角度来看待公共卫生信息。

Emmanuel Macron, right, gestures towards Boris Johnson as they stand at distance to pose for photographs ahead of a meeting at number 10 Downing Street in London on June 18, 2020. 2020年6月18日,在伦敦唐宁街10号开会之前,伊曼纽尔·麦克龙(右)向鲍里斯·约翰逊(Boris Johnson)摆出手势,在远处摆姿势拍照。

Not all the news is grim. In the first half of the year, governments worldwide resorted to emergency measures like forced business closures, stay-at-home rules and bans on large gatherings. The moves slowed infection, saved lives and gave leaders time to stockpile medical equipment and supplies.

并非所有的消息都是坏消息。今年上半年,全球各国政府采取了紧急措施,如强制停止商业活动、居家令和禁止大型集会。这些举措减缓了感染速度,挽救了生命,并给了领导人时间储备医疗设备和物资。

Yet that progress came at the cost of economic contraction, soaring unemployment and trillions of dollars in fiscal and monetary stimulus measures. Governments are likely to be reluctant to resort to wholesale lockdowns again in anything short of a catastrophe.

然而,这一进展的代价是经济收缩、失业率飙升以及数万亿美元的财政和货币刺激措施。除非出现一场灾难,政府可能不愿意再次诉诸大规模封锁。

A worker gives a customer a manicure at a nail salon in Atlanta, Georgia on April 24, 2020. 2020年4月24日,佐治亚州亚特兰大的一家美甲沙龙,一名工人给顾客美甲。

Instead, the biggest economies seem intent on reopening, even if the pace varies. That, in turn, means more social mobility and more opportunities for the virus to spread. Already, scientists who track virus trends are seeing signs that re-opening is leading to a spike in cases.

相反地,众多最大的经济体似乎也有意重新开放,纵使他们的步伐有差异。这反过来又意味着更多的社会流动性和更多的机会使病毒传播。跟踪病毒趋势的科学家已经看到,有迹象显示,重新开放导致病例激增。

“I understand there is a perception of the need to balance on these economic considerations,” said Ada Adimora, an epidemiologist and professor of medicine in infectious diseases at the University Of North Carolina School Of Medicine. “But to the extent that we open up society and have people going to restaurants — you can’t wear a mask while you eat — you are not really working to control the threat of the virus.”

北卡罗来纳大学医学院的流行病学家、传染病医学教授阿达·阿迪莫拉说:"我明白当中需要平衡这些经济考虑的想法。"但是,就我们开放社会、让人们去餐馆——你吃饭时不能戴口罩——你就没有真正努力控制病毒的威胁。

The ability to co-exist with SARS-CoV-2, as the virus is known, will increasingly ride on how individuals assess risks and make decisions.

众所周知,与SARS-CoV-2共存的能力将越来越多地依赖于个人们如何评估风险和做出决策。

Customers, some wearing protective masks, sit outside a cafe in the Garosu-gil neighborhood of the Gangnam district of Seoul, South Korea on April 18, 2020. 2020年4月18日,在韩国首尔江南区加鲁苏吉尔(Garosu-gil)附近的一家咖啡馆外的顾客们,一些人是戴着防护面罩。

“No activity will be without the risk of coronavirus,” said Amesh Adalja, a senior scholar at Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security in Baltimore. “It’s just how much risk people think is worth assuming.”

巴尔的摩约翰霍普金斯卫生安全中心的高级学者阿梅什·阿达利亚说:"任何活动都冒着冠状病毒的风险。"“只是人们觉得该值得承担多少风险”。

Trouble is, the virus is stealthy. Countries like China and South Korea that contained their local outbreaks have seen secondary flare-ups. Beijing this week closed its school system and limited international flights after a new outbreak spread to neighboring provinces. In Germany, which has kept its death toll below that of other large European countries, new clusters of infection emerged in a slaughterhouse and a Berlin apartment block.

麻烦的是,病毒是隐秘的。像中国和韩国这样的国家已经出现了二次爆发。北京本周在新的疫情蔓延到邻近省份后,关闭了学校系统,并限制国际航班后。在德国,其死亡人数一直低于其他欧洲大国,但在一屠宰场和在柏林一公寓楼里出现了新的感染群。

Park guests wearing protective masks sit on the Hollywood Rip Ride Rockit coaster at the Universal Studios theme park in Orlando, Florida on June 5, 2020. 2020年6月5日,在佛罗里达州奥兰多环球影城主题公园,戴着防护面罩的公园宾客坐在好莱坞滑翔机上。

In the U.S., the pandemic has made inroads into Sun Belt states like Florida, Texas and Arizona after hard-won gains taming it in New York. Latin America, spared early on, is now getting walloped. Brazil, home to densely populated urban centers and rural areas with weak health-care systems, has become a new epicenter.

在美国,纽当约好不容易地成功压制疫情后,大瘟疫继而渗透到太阳带州,如佛罗里达州,得克萨斯州和亚利桑那州。拉丁美洲,在早期幸免于难,现在正在被瘟疫围堵。巴西有着众多人口稠密的城市中心和农村地区,其医疗保健系统薄弱,已成为一个新的震中。

The resurgence in cases in China and the U.S. shows what can happen when regions start to lift restrictions, according to Seth Berkley, chief executive officer of Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance. The nonprofit is part of a global effort to deploy coronavirus vaccines equitably.

疫苗联盟嘎为(Gavi)的首席执行官塞斯·伯克利(SethBerkley)表示,中国和美国病例的重新抬头表明,当地区开始解除限制时,会发生什么情况。这个非盈利组织是全球公平部署冠状病毒疫苗努力的一部分。

“Clearly it isn’t over anywhere,” Berkley said in an interview. “We need to have some humility in how we manage this thing going forward. Obviously if we were to just throw open the gates and try to go completely back to normal, we would see continued spread of the virus.”

伯克利在接受采访时说:"显然,这一切并没有结束。"我们对如何管理事情的发展时需要有所谦卑。显然,如果我们打开大门,并试图完全恢复正常状态,我们会看到病毒将继续传播。

While the virus ebbs and flows regionally, it’s on the march at the global level, where there are 8.5 million confirmed cases and the pace is accelerating. At the start of May, the daily tally of new confirmed cases was running at about 88,000; now it’s 139,000, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University. Some experts say the global death toll will top one million.

虽然病毒在各区域起伏,但它正在全球性地传播,全球有850万确诊病例,而且速度正在加快。根据约翰霍普金斯大学汇编的数据,截至5月初,新确诊病例的日数约为88,000例; 现在已是139,000人。一些专家说,全球死亡人数将超过100万。

“We’ll go well over a million,” said Eric Topol, director of the Scripps Research Translational Institute in California. “I wouldn’t be surprised by 2022 if we go into a couple million or more, knowing that there are so many people out there who are vulnerable.”

加州斯克里普斯研究转化研究所所长埃里克·托波尔说:”我们将远超过一百万人。”到2022年,我不会感到惊讶如果我们有几百万甚至多的人死亡, 因为还有很多人是很容易受到感染的”。

People sit on the grass in circles drawn to promote social distancing at Alamo Square in San Francisco on June 11, 2020. 2020年6月11日,在旧金山阿拉莫广场,人们围坐划在草地上的圈圈以保持社交距离。

Reopening campaigns in the U.S. have prompted the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation to increase its U.S. death-toll forecast for the start of October by 18% to 200,000. As of June 16, Covid-19 has resulted in 118,000 lost American lives.

美国重新开放活动促使华盛顿大学卫生计量和评估研究所将10月初美国死亡人数预测提高18%,至20万人。截至6月16日,冠状病毒已造成11.8万美国人丧生。

“I’m not sure how you prepare for something of this magnitude and severity,” said Carissa Etienne, director of the Pan American Health Organization. “It’s almost difficult to conceptualize.”

泛美卫生组织主任卡里萨·艾蒂安说:"我不确定我们应如何应对如此规模和严重的疫情,这几乎时难以想象的”。

A reprieve from the pandemic that Trump and other experts had hoped would come with the arrival of warmer weather hasn’t yet materialized and may not ever, according to to Davidson Hamer, a professor of global health and medicine at the Boston University School of Public Health and School of Medicine. If people feel a false sense of security, they’re less likely to wear masks and avoid large gatherings.

波士顿大学公共卫生学院和医学院全球健康和医学教授戴维森·哈默(Davidson Hamer)表示,川普和其他专家曾希望随着气候变暖的到来而缓解这一大流行,但这暂时尚未实现,而且可能永远不会实现。如果人们对此有错误的安全感,他们就不太可能戴口罩和避免大型聚会。

“The real worrisome time will be this fall, when we are reopening universities and returning to work, with more people inside and cooler temperatures,” Hamer said. “It’s the perfect storm for a resurgence of disease.”

哈默说:"真正令人担忧的时间是今年秋天,当我们重新开放大学并重返工作岗位时,室内的人越来越多,气温也更低。"这是让疾病死灰复燃的完美风暴。

Social distancing markers sit on the floor of an elevator at the Unicredit SpA headquarters in Milan, Italy on June 8, 2020. 2020年6月8日,社交距离的标记被放在意大利米兰Unicredit的总部的电梯地板上。

The high number of asymptomatic infections is having a huge impact, according to Topol. “This is the worst pandemic in 100 years,'” he said. “1918 didn't have 30% of people who were infected who didn't know it. It’s the stealth infection thing that adds to the mix.''

据白杨(Topol)称,大量无症状感染正在产生巨大影响。"这是100年来最严重的大流行,"他说。"1918年没有30%的感染者不知道自己感染了。这是隐形感染的问题,增加了疫情的复杂性''。

Drug developers are racing to find effective treatments and a vaccine. This week, University of Oxford researchers reported that a low-cost, widely used anti-inflammatory drug called dexamethasone improved survival in Covid-19 patients, the first treatment to show life-saving promise months into the pandemic.

药物开发商正在竞相寻找有效的治疗方法和疫苗。本周,牛津大学的研究人员报告说,一种低成本、广泛使用的抗炎药物"地塞米松"提高了新冠病毒患者的存活率,这是首次在大流行数月内显示出挽救生命的希望。

U.S. officials and scientists have launched an accelerated program that aims to have a vaccine to prevent Covid-19 by the first half of 2021, but White House health adviser Anthony Fauci has cautioned that it could take longer.

美国官员和科学家已经启动了一个加速计划,目标是在2021年上半年建立预防新冠病毒的疫苗,但白宫卫生顾问安东尼·福奇警告说,这可能需要更长的时间。

Employees set up tables at a restaurant in Coral Gables, Florida on May 18, 2020. 2020年5月18日,员工在佛罗里达州珊瑚山墙的一家餐厅摆设桌子。

Promising candidates include shots being developed by biotechnology company Moderna Inc.; several Chinese programs; and a partnership of the University of Oxford and AstraZeneca Plc projecting a vaccine as early as September.

有希望的候选人包括正在开发疫苗的生物技术公司莫得纳(ModernaInc),几个中国项目; 和牛津大学与阿斯利康公司合作的预计最早在9月份推出的一种疫苗。

The World Health Organization hopes there will be about 2 billion doses of a handful of effective vaccines available by the end of next year, Chief Scientist Soumya Swaminathan said at a briefing this week. But that’s enough for less than one-third of the world’s population.

世界卫生组织首席科学家苏米亚·斯瓦米纳坦在本周的一次简报会上说,世界卫生组织希望到明年年底能看到有大约20亿剂几种有效疫苗面世。但这只能满足不到三分之一的世界人口。

Future vaccines that do arrive on the scene may not provide long-term immunity. If SARS-CoV-2 is like other coronaviruses, including some that cause the common cold, individuals may need annual booster shots to ward off subtle changes, Fauci said in a recent interview.

将来面世的疫苗可能无法提供长期免疫力。福西(Fauci)在最近的一次采访中说,如果SARS-CoV-2像其他冠状病毒一样,包括一些导致普通感冒的冠状病毒,人们可能需要每年注射疫苗加强剂来抵御细微的变化。

Roofing of AstraZeneca Plc's new facility at the Cambridge Biomedical Campus (CBC) in Cambridge, U.K. on June 8, 2020. 2020年6月8日,阿斯利康公司位于英国剑桥生物医学校区(CBC)的新设施屋顶

Without a vaccine in place, countries are doing the best they can to contain the virus with contact tracing and targeted quarantines. Testing is crucial, and many countries still haven’t ramped up their capability sufficiently to identify outbreaks when they’re still small enough to bottle up, said David Heymann, professor at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, who led the WHO’s response to severe acute respiratory syndrome in 2003.

在没有疫苗之前,各国正在尽其所能,通过接触追踪和有针对性的隔离来遏制病毒。伦敦卫生与热带医学学院教授大卫·海曼(David Heymann)说,检测至关重要,许多国家仍然没有提高到在疫情蔓延还能受控制之阶段,就能把它识别出来的能力。海曼曾领导世卫组织对抗2003年的SARS疫情。

“It’s all trial and error but if you know the epidemiology and where transmission is occurring you can do a more tailored response,” he said.

"这一切都在于反复试验,但如果你知道流行病学和传播发生的地方,你可以做更有针对性的反应,"他说。

As the pandemic rolls into the summer, this much is clear. The virus will not “fade away” even without a vaccine, as Trump predicted this week.

随着流感大流行进入夏季,有一点是显而易见的。即使没有疫苗,病毒也不会像川普这周预测般"消退"的。

“This was never something that would be containable or would disappear,” said Adalja at Johns Hopkins. “It spreads too efficiently between humans. That’s all it needs to do.”

约翰霍普金斯大学的阿达利亚说:"这绝不是可以遏制或消失的东西。"它在人与人之间传播得太有效。这就是它需要做的。

— With assistance by Jason Gale, Corinne Gretler, John Lauerman, and James Paton•

本文由杰森·盖尔、科琳·格雷特勒、约翰·劳曼和詹姆斯·帕顿提供协助

编辑:【喜马拉雅战鹰团】Edited by:【Himalaya Hawk Squad】