Loading

以色列与阿联酋和平,一带一路野心破灭 【中英对照翻译】

新闻来源:Breitbart《布雷特巴特》;作者:约翰海沃德 JOHN HAYWARD;发布时间:15 Aug 2020 / 2020年8月15日

翻译/简评:文晓于Lisa;校对:leftgun;审核:海阔天空;Page:拱卒

简评:

撕下面具的中共,就是恐怖组织,是全世界的威胁。中共是中东局势不稳定的背后黑手,是世界不和平不稳定最根本的原因。消灭了中共,伊朗、朝鲜、中东地区的恐怖组织就失去了金源和背后的支持者,世界才能获得真正的稳定与和平。中共自非法夺取中国政权以来,中国老百姓70年来深受其害,每一个家庭都有中共的血债。文化大革命、天安门大屠杀、撕毁协议剥夺港人自由法治,中共的罪行罄竹难书。中共一方面利用防火墙掩盖真实信息,打压觉醒的中国民众,一方面制造假新闻对国民每时每刻进行监控和洗脑。如今中共再次制造生物武器,对全世界造成巨大伤害。中共不灭,天理不容。消灭中共,是正义的需要。

原文翻译:

Israel-UAE Deal May Strike a Blow Against China’s Belt and Road Ambitions

以色列和阿联酋的协议可能会对中国的一带一路野心造成打击

Analysis of the historic peace deal between Israel and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) tends to focus on Iran and Turkey as the big losers. They were certainly the loudest complainers.

对以色列与阿拉伯联合酋长国(UAE)之间历史性和平协议的分析倾向于把重点放在伊朗和土耳其身上,认为它们是最大的输家。它们无疑是最强烈的抱怨者。

A more quietly disappointed loser could be China, which has major ambitions for the Middle East under its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

一个更默默失望的失败者可能是中共国,它的一带一路倡议(BRI)对中东有重大的野心。

The big risk for China is that the UAE could demonstrate Israel is a better business partner for infrastructure development, with few strings attached. The UAE is currently a BRI partner, with some $3.4 billion in deals under the initiative, and Israel has a piece of the action, too. China went on the record welcoming the accord with Israel as a means of increasing “regional peace and stability,” but the shifting geopolitical landscape in the Middle East could lead to reduced demand for Chinese industry, and the Chinese Communist Party leverage that comes with it.

对中共国来说,最大的风险是阿联酋可能会证明以色列是基础设施建设方面更好的商业伙伴,而且附加条件很少。阿联酋目前是一带一路(BRI)的合作伙伴,在该倡议下其交易额约为34亿美元,而以色列也从中分得一杯羹。中共国公开表示欢迎与以色列达成协议,以此作为加强 "地区和平与稳定 "的一种手段,但中东地缘政治格局的变化可能会导致对中共国工业的需求减少,以及随之而来的中共的影响力。

Beijing has some very heavy bets on the most unstable and un-peaceful actors in the Middle East. China is looking for a big piece of Syrian postwar reconstruction, it is working on a major partnership with Iran, and it is looking to pull Turkey more firmly into its orbit.

北京在中东最不稳定、最不和平的行为者身上下了很多非常大的赌注。中共国正在寻求叙利亚战后重建中的一大块,它正在努力与伊朗建立重要的伙伴关系,并希望将土耳其更坚定地拉入其轨道。

Every unhappy party listed in analyses of the Israel-UAE deal is a space on the Middle Eastern game table where China has a big stack of chips. A typical example from Thomas Friedman at the New York Times called the deal an “earthquake” and listed the “big geopolitical losers” as “Iran and all of its proxies: Hezbollah, the Iraqi militias, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, Hamas, Islamic Jihad, the Houthis in Yemen and Turkey.” That is also a fairly concise list of China’s big current and prospective Middle Eastern clients:

在对以色列和阿联酋交易的分析中,每一个被列举出来的不快的一方,都是中东游戏桌上中共国拥有大量筹码的一个空间。纽约时报的托马斯-弗里德曼Thomas Friedman的一个典型例子称该协议是一场 "地震",并将 "地缘政治的大输家 "列为 "伊朗及其所有代理人:真主党、伊拉克民兵、叙利亚总统巴沙尔-阿萨德、哈马斯、伊斯兰圣战组织、也门的胡塞武装和土耳其"。这也是一份相当简要的中共国在中东现有和潜在大客户名单:

Up to now, the U.A.E. has kept up a delicate balance between Iran and Israel, not looking to provoke Iran, and dealing with Israel covertly.

迄今为止,阿联酋一直在伊朗和以色列之间保持微妙的平衡,既不希望挑衅伊朗,并暗中与以色列打交道。

But this deal is right in Iran’s face. The tacit message is: “We now have Israel on our side, so don’t mess with us.” The vast damage Israel inflicted on Iran through apparent cyberwarfare in recent months may have even given the U.A.E. more breathing room to do this deal.

但这一协议正出现在伊朗的面前。默示的信息是:“我们现在有以色列站在我们这边,所以不要惹我们。” 最近几个月,以色列通过明显的网络战给伊朗造成的巨大损失,甚至可能给了阿联酋更多的喘息空间来做这笔交易。

But there is another message, deeper, more psychological. This was the U.A.E. telling the Iranians and all their proxies: There are really two coalitions in the region today — those who want to let the future bury the past and those who want to let the past keep burying the future. The U.A.E. is taking the helm of the first, and it is leaving Iran to be the leader of the second.

但还有另一个更深的、更心理的信息。这是阿联酋告诉伊朗人和他们所有的代理人。今天在这个地区有两个联盟:想让未来埋葬过去的联盟和想让过去继续埋葬未来的联盟。阿联酋正在领导第一种联盟,并让伊朗成为第二种联盟的领导人。

Whatever Beijing might say about its desire for stability, that is not exactly the ideal environment for growing its influence in the Middle East.

无论北京如何评价其对稳定的渴望,这都不是其在中东地区发展影响力的理想环境。

China is also trying to make a big push into Iraq, which could be fundamentally transformed by the fading of Iranian influence and a realignment of the Sunni Muslim states toward Israel. The latest horrifying Middle East disaster, the explosion that devastated Beirut, could present opportunities for Belt and Road expansion.

中共国也在试图大举涉足伊拉克,随着伊朗影响力的消退和逊尼派穆斯林国家转向以色列,伊拉克可能会发生根本性的变化。最近一次骇人听闻的中东灾难,即摧毁贝鲁特的爆炸事件,可能为一带一路的扩张带来机遇。

The chances of those opportunities materializing for China fluctuate with the level of desperation in each client state, as David Rosenberg explained with respect to Beirut at Haaretz on Friday:

正如大卫·罗森伯格(David Rosenberg)周五在哈雷兹(Haaretz) 就贝鲁特(Beirut)一事所做的解释:对中共国来说,这些机会的实现性会随着每个客户国的绝望程度而波动。

What does Beijing hope to get out of this? In the short run, port construction provides jobs and contracts for Chinese companies. In the long run, they help China project its power across Eurasia while ensuring its exports reach markets efficiently and at low cost. They deepen the country’s presence in a strategic part of the world at the cost of the traditional hegemons of Europe and the United States. They may even one day serve the needs of the Chinese navy as the port of Djibouti in the Horn of Africa does.

北京希望从中得到什么?从短期来看,港口建设为中共国公司提供了就业机会和合同。从长远来看,它们帮助中共国在欧亚大陆投射出自己的力量,同时确保其出口产品高效、低成本地到达市场。它们取代了欧洲和美国的传统霸权来加深了中共国在这世界战略地区的存在。它们甚至有朝一日可能会像非洲之角的吉布提港一样,为中共国海军的需求服务。

[…]

Based on the experience of other countries, China will likely be more of a winner than Lebanon. China will provide cheap financing, but Lebanon will be saddled with the debt (if it insists on retaining control of the port) or loss of control of the port (if it cedes the operating contract to Chinese companies). Its economy will benefit to the extent it gets a port, but the jobs will go to Chinese laborers and the sub-contracting to Chinese companies.

根据其他国家的经验,中共国很可能比黎巴嫩更容易成为赢家。中共国将提供廉价的资金,但黎巴嫩将背负债务(如果它坚持保留对港口的控制权)或失去对港口的控制权(如果它把经营合同让给中国公司)。黎巴嫩的经济将在获得港口的程度上受益,但工作机会将由中国劳工获得,并将分包给中国公司。

What Beijing won’t demand is any annoying reforms, like an end to corruption. For Lebanon’s elite, that’s a win-win.

北京不会要求进行任何令人讨厌的改革,例如结束腐败。对于黎巴嫩的精英来说,这是双赢的。

That last, bitter point is the hardest one to argue with. Corrupt and authoritarian regimes are very receptive to China’s argument that Western support comes with human rights strings attached, whereas Beijing will never lecture its partners about throwing dissidents in dungeons or wiping inconvenient ethnic and religious groups off the map. Belt and Road projects often have dubious business plans, but they always offer patronage to the ruling elite.

最后一个症结,也是最难辩驳的一点。腐败和专制政权非常容易接受中共国的论点,即西方的支持是有人权附加条件的,而北京永远不会教训它的合作伙伴,把持不同政见者扔进地牢,或者把碍事的民族和宗教群体从地图上抹去。一带一路项目往往有可疑的商业计划,但它们总是为统治精英提供资助。

Former U.S. Ambassador to Germany Richard Grenell wrote at the Hill on Friday advising President Donald Trump to build on the UAE-Israel deal by weakening Hezbollah’s influence in Lebanon and creating “a normalization path between Beirut and Jerusalem.”

前美国驻德国大使理查德-格雷内尔( Richard Grenell )周五在《国会山》撰文建议川普总统在阿联酋-以色列协议的基础上,通过削弱真主党在黎巴嫩的影响力,在 "贝鲁特和耶路撒冷之间建立一条正常化道路"。

Current U.S. Ambassador to Israel David Friedman and SiriusXM host Alex Marlow discussed the winners and losers from the new peace deal on Friday’s edition of Breitbart News Daily. Among the losers they discussed was China,

which Marlow noted “has huge business interests in the Middle East that I think were undermined by this deal.”

现任美国驻以色列大使戴维·弗里德曼(David Friedman)和SiriusXM主持人亚历克斯·马洛(Alex Marlow)在周五的布赖特巴特新闻日报上讨论了新和平协议的赢家和输家。 在他们讨论过的输家中有中共国,马洛指出:“中共国在中东拥有巨大的商业利益,我认为这笔交易会损害它的利益。”

Whatever China might say about desiring peaceful and stable environments for its economic expansion, that is not the kind of stability it had in mind. A new Middle East where the Gulf Cooperation Council works with Israel to create a strong local competitor for everything Belt and Road has to offer will be bad news for Beijing in the long run, as will the strategic damage to some very bad regional actors that China is eager to do business with.

无论中共国如何说希望为其经济扩张提供和平稳定的环境,那都不是它心目中的稳定。一个新的中东,海湾合作委员会与以色列合作,给 "一带一路 "创造一个强大的本地竞争者,从长远来看,这对北京来说将是一个坏消息,对一些中国渴望与之做生意的非常糟糕的地区行为体的战略损害也是如此。

编辑:【喜马拉雅战鹰团】Edited by:【Himalaya Hawk Squad】