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人民币将被踢出美元体系! 【中英对照翻译】

新闻来源: Zerohedge《零对冲》;作者:Tyler Durden ;发表日期:06/22/2020

翻译/简评:万人往; PR:Julia Win; Page:拱卒

简评:

中共的人冥币国际化之路注定痴心妄想。按中共法律规定,理论上每人每年有5万美元的外汇兑换额度。可实际上老百姓去银行取5000美金都能被刁难,不是说没现钞就是让提供各种类似“自己是自己”的证明,想把钱汇出去也会被银行以各种理由拒绝。一个不能自由兑换的货币,不能自由流通的货币,怎么实现国际化?

银保监会主席郭树清还大言不惭地说,担心美元贬值影响中共海外资产价值。试问美元和人冥币,哪一个该贬值得更多?人冥币M2(广义货币供应量)在2018年就接近美元M2的两倍,这还只是官方数据,实际上的人冥币M2会更多。参照美国生产率标准,中共国14万亿美元的GDP,只需9万亿美元的货币发行量。中共在2018年就已经超发等值19万亿美元的人冥币。

真实的美元兑人冥币汇率早就应该是两位数,趁现在中共用“擀面杖”将汇率强拉到7.05附近,还有机会将手中的人冥币以相对优惠的汇率换成美元。到了美国对中共万箭齐发的时候,人冥币真会变成冥币,处理人冥币资产就真来不及了。

原文:

China Must Prepare To Be Cut Off From Dollar-Based Financial System, Official Warns

美国官员警告说,中共国必须做好被踢出美元金融体系的准备

Beijing has expressed intense displeasure over President Trump's decision to sign into law a bill targeting senior CCP figures involved with China's network of concentration camps, even though the White House ultimately held off on putting the sanctions into practice. Which is why it's hardly surprising that senior financial regulators in Beijing are again echoing criticisms first formulated by Russian President Vladimir Putin amid growing fears that, next time, the sanctions won't be just a "warning shot".

北京当局对川普总统决定签署的一项针对涉及中共国集中营网络的中共高官的法案表示强烈不满,尽管白宫最终推迟实施制裁。正因如此,北京的高级金融监管机构再次附和俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔•普京最初提出的批评,这也就不足为奇了。人们越来越担心,下一次的制裁将不仅仅是“鸣枪示警”。

But as President Trump threatens to leverage even more sanctions against the Chinese government as well as senior officials over transgressions like corporate espionage and illegal IP theft, one senior official has warned that it's now 'inevitable' that the US will soon apply sweeping Russia-style sanctions to China.

一名高级官员警告称,随着川普总统预示要对中共国政府和高官实施更多制裁,比如企业间谍和非法窃取知识产权,美国将很快对中共国实施类似俄罗斯式的全面制裁,这是“不可避免的”。

Such brazen punitive sanctions would likely prove unpopular among Washington's closest allies, especially at such a precarious time for the global economy. But they would certainly serve to accelerate the economic decoupling that White House China hawks like Peter Navarro and Matt Pottinger have hoped for. Which is perhaps why Fang Xinghai, a vice-chairman at the China Securities Regulatory Commission, warned on Monday that China's reliance on the international dollar-based financial system makes it vulnerable.

这种明目张胆的惩罚性制裁,很可能不受华盛顿当局最亲密盟友的欢迎,尤其是在全球经济如此不稳定的时期。但这些制裁肯定会加速经济脱钩,这正是白宫对中共鹰派彼得•纳瓦罗和博明所希望的。这或许就是中共国证监会副主席方星海在周一警告说的,中共国对以美元为基础的国际金融体系的依赖,是让它变得脆弱的原因。

Fang Xinghai, a vice-chairman at the China Securities Regulatory Commission, said that as China mainly relies on the US dollar payment system in international deals, it makes it vulnerable to possible US sanctions.

中共国证监会副主席方星海表示,由于中共国在国际贸易中主要依赖美元支付体系,这使它很容易受到美国可能实施的制裁。

"Such things have already happened to many Russian businesses and financial institutions. We have to make preparations early – real preparations, not just psychological preparations," Fang said at a forum organised by Chinese media outlet Caixin.

方星海在中共国媒体财新网组织的一个论坛上说,“这样的事情已经发生在许多俄罗斯企业和金融机构身上。我们必须尽早做好准备——真正的准备,而不仅仅是心理上的准备。”

Fang’s comment came at a time when Washington is pondering how far it should go to use the US dollar’s key role in international payment to punish Chinese individuals, companies and financial institutions for alleged involvement in issues such as Xinjiang and Hong Kong.

方星海发表上述言论之际,华盛顿当局正在考虑,应在多大程度上利用美元在国际支付中的关键作用,惩罚涉嫌参与新疆和香港等问题的中共国个人、企业和金融机构。

At the same time, Fang said the value of the US dollar is facing an uncertain future due to additional money being printed by the US Federal Reserve, which poses risks to China’s holdings of US dollar-denominated assets. With this, Fang echoed criticisms posed just days ago by Guo Shuqing, chairman of the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, who delivered a strong warning on the U.S. currency last week.

与此同时,方星海表示,由于美联储增发货币,美元未来的价值面临着不确定,这对中共国持有的以美元计价的资产带来了风险。方星海回应了几天前中共国银保监会主席郭树清提出的批评,郭树清上周就美元汇率发出了强烈警告。

China is presently the second-largest holder of American Treasuries with more than $1 trillion in Treasury bills, behind only Japan. Though the paper profits from holding these assets are certainly massive, a reversal in interest rates could saddle the PBOC with massive losses over time, especially if rates move swiftly higher in a destabilizing way.

中共国目前是美国国债的第二大持有者,持有超过1万亿美元的美国国债,仅次于日本。虽然持有这些资产的账面利润肯定是巨大的,但随着时间的推移,利率逆转可能会让中共国人民银行蒙受巨大损失,尤其是利率以一种不稳定的方式迅速上升。

The solution, in Fang's view, is to continue to expand the international use of the yuan by China's trading powers, even as Beijing's tight control of the currency remains a major obstacle to this: “Yuan internationalisation is a must to offset external financial pressure,” Fang added. “If our overseas assets were held in yuan, there won’t be such worries [over US dollar devaluation].”

方星海认为,解决办法是用中共国贸易力量继续扩大人民币在国际上的使用,尽管北京当局对人民币的严格控制仍是实现这一目标的主要障碍:“人民币国际化是抵消外部金融压力的必要条件,”方星海补充说。“如果我们的海外资产是以人民币持有,就不会有(美元贬值)这样的担忧。”

编辑:【喜马拉雅战鹰团】Edited by:【Himalaya Hawk Squad】