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央行放行壞賬,中共國經濟能否起死回生? 【中英對照翻譯】

來源:ZeroHedge, February 16, 2020

作者:Tyler Durden

翻譯:ignoreme; PR: 海闊天空

簡評:海闊天空

簡評:冠狀病毒對中國經濟的影響是致命的,中共國央行為了穩定經濟增長,大幅度地放寬貸款准入,同時「允許」金融機構提高壞賬水準,默許成千上萬的公司從一系列巨額債務中免責。 但中共國經濟最致命的問題是從18大以來系統性的國進民退策略,國家權力對民營企業的大肆掠奪。 在金融領域,金融機構對民營企業的歧視性政策對中國最具活力的中小企業造成致命傷害。 這一傷害在在冠狀病毒之前已經發生。 冠狀病毒之後,中共國為了保障經濟發展,維持其政權的合法地位,放寬了對中小企業的貸款准入。 但目前的經濟環境,特別是在疫情的背景下,國內居民收入極度萎縮、中國與美國貿易戰造成出口停滯,中小企業運營非常困難,已經很難繼續創造財富、獲得利潤。 實體企業難以為繼,雪崩似的債務違約很快到來,金融系統的山崩海嘯就要發生,中共國脆弱的經濟系統就要在眼前完結。

China Central Bank Orders Lenders To "Tolerate" Higher Bad Debt Levels To Avoid Financial Cataclysm

中國央行指示放貸方「允許」提高壞賬水準來避免金融災難

Last week we reminded readers that unless Beijing manages to contain the coronavirus epidemic, China faces a fate far wors e than just reported its first ever 0% (or negative) GDP print in history. For those who missed it, here it is again: back in November, we reported that as part of a stress test conducted by China' s central bank in the first half of 2019, 30 medium- and large-sized banks were tested; In the base-case scenario, assuming GDP growth dropped to 5.3% - nine out of 30 major banks failed and saw their capital a dequacy ratio drop to 13.47% from 14.43%. In the worst-case scenario, assuming GDP growth dropped to 4.15%, some 2% below the latest official GDP print, more than h alf of China's banks, or 17 out of the 30 major banks failed the test. Needless to say, the implications for a Chinese financial system - whose size is roughly $41 trillion - having over $20 tr illion in "problematic" bank assets, would be dire.

上周我們提示讀者,如果北京當局不能應對好冠狀病毒疫情,中共國將面臨比報導所稱的有史以來0%甚至負增長的GDP更糟的命運。給錯過的讀者我們再回顧一下:去年11月,我們報導了作為中共央行在上半年所做的壓力測試的一部分,30家中大型銀行參與測試,在基本情形下,假設GDP增長降低至5.3%,則30家銀行中有9家破產,並且資本充足率會從14.43% 降至13.47%。 在最壞的情況下,假設GDP增長降至4.15%,比官方最新公佈的資料低2%,那麼一半的中國銀行,即30家中的17家將會破產。 不用贅述,這都說明了對有41萬億美元規模的中國金融系統而言,擁有20萬億美元的問題資產是相當可怕的。

Well, with GDP set to print negative if Goldman is right (with risk clearly to the downside as China's economy remains com pletely paralyzed)...

如果高盛是對的話,那麼GDP會是負增長。 (經濟下行顯而易見的風險會使中共國經濟徹底癱瘓)

every single Chinese bank is set to fail a "hypothetical" stress test, and the immediate result is an exponential surge in bad debt. The result, as we discussed in detail last week, is that the bad loan ratio at the nation's 30 biggest banks would soar at least five-fold, and potentially far, far more, flooding the country with trillions in non-performing loans, and unleashi ng a tsunami of bank defaults.

每一個中國的銀行都沒法通過這個「假設的」壓力測試,直接結果是壞賬呈指數級增長。 像上周我們仔細討論的那樣,結果就是不良貸款率可能飆升至5倍甚至遠超5倍,從而使該國充斥上萬億美元的不良貸款並引發銀行違約海嘯。

Of course, regular readers are well aware that China's banks are already suffering record loan defaults as the economy last year expanded at the slowest pace in three decades while bankruptcies soared. As extensively covered here previously, the slump tore through the nation’s $41 trillion banking system, forcing not only the first bank seizure in two decades as Baoshang Bank was nationalized , but also bailouts at Bank of Jinzh ou, China's Heng Feng Bank, as well as two very troubling bank runs at China's Henan Yichuan Rural Commercial Bank at the start of the month, and then more recently at Yingkou Coastal Bank.

當然,老讀者都清楚,由於去年經濟增長是過去三十年的最低,銀行破產數猛增,中共國的銀行正在經受著破紀錄的貸款違約。 正如之前廣泛討論的一樣,衰退席卷了該國41萬億美元的銀行系統,不僅迫使包商銀行國有化,這是20年來銀行首次被沒收,而且也迫使錦州銀行,恒豐銀行被接管,還有兩家陷入困境的銀行, 月初的中國河南伊川農商行和最近的營口沿海銀行也被接管。

All that may be a walk in the park compared to what is coming next.

和接下來發生的相比,這可以算是在公園散步。

"The banking industry is taking a big hit," You Chun, a Shanghai-based analyst at National Institution for Finance & D evelopment told Bloomberg. "The outbreak has already damaged China’s most vibrant small businesses and if it prolongs, many firms will go under and b e unable to repay their loans."

駐上海的國家金融發展實驗室的分析師You Chun告訴Bloomberg說:「銀行業正遭受重創,疫情已經破壞了有活力的中小企業,如果持續下去,很多企業會破產導致無法償還貸款。 」

According to a recent Bloomberg report, S&P estimates that a worst-case scenario (one which however saw GDP remain wel l in positive territory) would cause bad debt to balloon by 5.6 trillion yuan ($800 billion), for an NPL ratio of about 6. 3%, adding to the already daunting 2.4 trillion yuan of non-performing loans China’s banks are sitting on (a number which, like the details of the viral epidemic, is largely massaged lower and the real number is far higher according to even con servative skeptics).

根據Bloomberg最近的報導,標准普爾估計,最壞的情況(然而有人認為GDP仍會保持積極水準)會導致新增壞賬5.6萬億人民幣(8000萬美元),不良貸款率大約6.3%,注入到中共國銀行現有2.4萬億元的不良貸款中。 (這個數位,細節同病毒疫情一樣,數位被很大程度壓低,根據保守的懷疑論者的說法,真實數位遠高於此)

S&P also expects that banks with operations concentrated in Hubei province and its capital city of Wuhan, the epicenter and the region worst hit by the virus, will likely see the greatest increase in problem loans. The region had 4.6 trillion yuan of outstanding loans held by 160 local and foreign banks at the end of 2018, with more than half in Wuhan. The five big state banks had 2.6 trillion yuan of exposure in the region, followed by 78 local rural lenders, according to official data.

標普預計,業務集中在湖北省和省會武漢這個受疫情打擊最嚴重的地區的銀行,問題貸款將會有最大程度增長。 截止到2018年底,這個地區有4.6萬億元的未償還貸款,被160家本地和外資銀行持有,一半以上位於武漢。 根據官方資料,五大國有銀行在該地區的敞口為2.6萬億元,其他的屬於78家本地農商行。

Meanwhile, exposing the plight of small business, most of which are indebted to China's banks, a recent nationwide survey showed that about 30% said they expect to see revenue plunge more than 50% this year because of the virus and 85% said the y are unable to maintain operations for more than three months with cash currently available. Perhaps they were exaggerating in hopes of garnering enough sympathy from Beijing for a blanket bailout; or perhaps they were just telling the truth.

同時,暴露的小企業困境,大部分債務歸屬中國的銀行,最近一項全國調查顯示,約30%的受訪者說,受疫情影響,他們預計今年收入暴跌50%以上;85%的受訪者說,用現有現金運行,最多維持3個月。 或許他們誇大了得到北京當局的同情和救援的希望,或者他們只是說了實話。

Finally, the market is increasingly worried that all this bad debt will have a dire impact on bank assets: consider that t he 「big four」 state-owned lenders, which together control more than $14 trillion of assets, currently trade at an average 0.6 times their forecast book value, near a record low. This also means that in the eyes of the market, as much as $6 trillion in bank assets are currently worthless.

最後,市場越來越擔心所有這些壞賬將對銀行資產產生可怕的影響:考慮到「四大」國有銀行總共控制著超過14萬億美元的資產,它們目前的平均交易價格是其預期帳面價值的0.6倍,接近歷史最低水準。 這也意味著,在市場眼中,高達6萬億美元的銀行資產目前一文不值。

All of this led us to conclude last week that "nothing short of a coronavirus cataclysm faces both China's banks and small businesses if the coronavirus isn't contained in the coming weeks."

所有這一切導致我們上周得出結論,"如果未來幾周不控制冠狀病毒,中國的銀行和小企業將面臨冠狀病毒災難。"

In retrospect, there is one thing we forgot to footnote, and that is that China could buy some extra time if the central b ank suspend financial rules and moves the goalposts once again.

回想起來,一件事忘了說明,就是如果央行暫停金融管制,改變目標會給中國贏得更多時間。

And so, just three days after our first article on China's looming bad debt catastrophe, that's precisely what the PBOC ha s opted to do, because as Reuters writes, on Saturday the PBOC said that the country's lenders will tolerate higher levels of bad loans, part of efforts to support firms hit by the coronavirus epidemic.

所以,在我們第一篇關於中國壞賬災難都文章發半天后,這正是中國人民銀行必須要做的,因為根據路透社的報導,中國人民銀行在週六說,中國領導人將允許更高的壞賬水準,部分原因是要支援企業對抗冠狀病毒疫情。

"We will support qualified firms so that they can resume work and production as soon as possible, helping maintain stable operations of the economy and minimizing the epidemic's impact," Fan Yifei, a vice governor at the People's B ank of China, told a news conference.

中國人民銀行副行長范逸飛在新聞發佈會上表示:「我們將支援符合條件的企業儘快恢復生產和工作,説明保持經濟穩定運行,將疫情影響降到最低。 」

He added that the problem will be manageable as China has a relatively low bad loan ratio.

他補充說,中國有相對低的不良貸款率,這個問題是可控的。

What the PBOC really means is that China's zombie companies are about to take zombification to a previously unseen level, as neither the central bank nor its SOE-commercial bank proxies will demand cash payments amounting to billions if not tri llions of dollars from debtors, who will plead "force majeure" as part of their debt default explanation. In other words, we may be about to see the biggest "under the table" debt jubilee in history, as thousands of companies ar e absolved from the consequences of having too much debt.

中國人民銀行的真正意思是,中國的僵屍公司會把僵屍化進行到前所未有的水準,無論是央行還是國有商業銀行代理都不會要求債務人用現金支付十億或萬億美元的債務,他們會要求將「不可抗力」作為他們債務預設說明的一部分。 換句話說,我們可能會看到有史以來最大規模的「私下債務」,因為成千上萬的公司會從一系列巨額債務中免責。

Separately, during the same briefing, Liang Tao, vice chairman of the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, said that lending for key investment projects will be sped up, while Xuan Changneng, vice head of the country' s foreign exchange regulator, said China was expected to maintain a small current account surplus and keep a basic balance in international payments. We wouldn't hold our breath for a surplus if China is indeed producing nothing as real-time indicators suggest.

此外,這次發佈會上,中國銀保監會副主席梁濤說,會加速對關鍵投資專案的貸款,而中國的外匯管理局副局長宣昌能表示,預計中國會維持小額的國際收支經常專案順差,並保持基本的國際收支平衡。 如果中國像即時指標顯示的沒有實際生產產品,我們也不會努力維持順差。

And just so the message that debt will flow no matter what is heard loud and clear, on Friday, said Liang Tao, vice-chairm an of the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission said that financial institutions in the banking sector had pro vided more than 537 billion yuan ($77 billion) in credit to fight against the novel coronavirus outbreak as of noon on Fri day.

週五,銀保監會副主席梁濤說,無論聽到什麼確定的資訊,債務都會流動,截止到週五中午,銀行業的金融機構已經提供超過5370億元(770億美元)信貸用來對抗爆發的冠狀病毒疫情。

"The regulator will soon launch more measures to give stronger credit support to various industries," said Liang at a news conference held by the State Council Information Office on Saturday. "It will continue to lead banks' efforts on increasing loans to small and micro enterprises, making loans accessible to a larger number of small businesses, and further lowering their lending costs."

週六在國務院新聞辦公室舉行的新聞發佈會上,梁濤說:「監管部門將儘快採取更多措施,為各個行業提供更有力的信貸支援,這將繼續支援銀行給小微企業增加貸款,使多數小企業得到貸款,並降低貸款成本。 」

Hilariously, Liang highlighted the importance for banks to take accurate measures to renew loans for small businesses to r educe their financial pressure. It wasn't clear just how burdening the small businesses with even more debt they will never be able to repay reduces finan cial pressure, but we can only assume that this is what is known as financial strategy with Chinese characteristics.

可笑的是,梁濤強調了銀行採取正確措施為小企業延長貸款的重要性,以減少他們的財務壓力。 目前還不清楚,讓小企業背負更多他們永遠無法償還的債務,如何能減輕財務壓力,但我們只能假設,這就是所謂的具有中國特色的金融策略。

The bottom line is simple: no matter how or when the coronavirus epidemic ends, the outcome for China - which already toils under an gargantuan 300% debt/GDP burden...

底線很簡單,無論冠狀病毒疫情何時和如何結束,對中國的後果-已經在巨大的300%的債務/GDP負擔下掙扎。

will be devastating as more companies are encumbered by even more debt which they will never be able to repay, and once ra tes jump or the Chinese economy hits another pothole - viral or otherwise - the avalanche in defaults will be a sight to b ehold.

更多的公司被永遠無法償還的甚至更多的債務所拖累,一旦利率飆升或中國經濟遇到另一個坎--病毒或別的--雪崩一樣的債務違約都是可預見的。

編輯:【喜馬拉雅戰鷹團】