新闻来源： Axios

作者：Bethany Allen-Ebrahimian

翻译/简评：Judy Anderson

校对：海阔天空

简评：

这篇文章的作者显然已经意识到了中美对抗的现实，也对中共的观点和做法持批判态度，但作者对中共邪恶本质和愚蠢狂妄的理解显然远远不够。本文开篇定调有专家反对与中共国的新冷战。虽然之后承认中共有意竞争，但还是宣扬没有哪一方真的想要新冷战。文章援引了外交关系委员会主席哈斯的观点，强调冷战思维是过时的思维定势和重大战略错误，甚至引用卢比奥议员的说法，放大为鹰派在此问题上的态度。文章承认了中共想要扩张的野心，却引用哈斯的观点将其解读为想要削弱美国影响力而进行区域性称霸。虽然文中后来提及习近平想要主导世界，也肯定了中共挑战的是世界主流价值观，但完完全全无视了中共想要利用病毒称霸世界的狼子野心。在这种全球被疫情危害到如此惨状的情况下，竟然能一笔带过地说病毒只是影响美中关系。文章最后落脚于中美之间是与冷战时期不同的竞争关系，需要制定规则规范来进行，孰不知，中美之间是正义和邪恶的较量，这场较量不是你死，就是我亡，中共与美国，绝不可能在在非冷战状态下长久共存。

原文：

The "new Cold War" started in Beijing

“新冷战”已于北京开始

A growing number of experts are warning against what they call a "new Cold War" with China. But many Chinese Communist Party elites already view the rest of the world as a staging ground for competition between China and the United States.

越来越多的专家警告反对他们称之为与中共国的“新冷战”。但是，许多中国共产党精英已经将世界其他地区视为中美竞争的舞台。

The big picture: The current U.S. debate over China policy is essentially a response to the great power rivalry that China's leaders have already fully embraced.

大方向来说：当前美国对中国政策的辩论实质上是对于中共国领导人已经完全接受的大国对抗的回应。

When people warn of a new Cold War, they are typically referring to one or more of these possible scenarios:

当人们警告新冷战时，他们通常是指以下一种或多种可能的情况：

• Division of the world into competing spheres of influence
• 将世界划分成相互竞争的势力范围
• A sweeping economic embargo
• 全面的经济禁运
• A military build-up
• 军事集结
• At home, accusations of disloyalty and secret sympathies
• 在国内，对异心和秘密同情的指控

What they're saying: Richard Haass, president of the Council on Foreign Relations, last week wrote that a new Cold War would mean "confronting China" becomes "the organizing principle of U.S. foreign policy."

这些专家们说：外交关系委员会主席理查德·哈斯（Richard Haass）上周写道，新冷战意味着“与中共国对峙”将成为“美国外交政策的组织原则”。

"This would be a major strategic error," wrote Haass. "It reflects an out-of-date mind-set that sees dealing with other major powers as America’s principal challenge."

哈斯写道：“这将是一个重大的战略错误。” “这反映了一种过时的思维定势，认为与其他大国打交道是美国的主要挑战。”

Driving the news: The coronavirus pandemic has only accelerated the downward spiral in U.S.-China relations. “Both governments are trying to profit domestically off the other's failures," Rachel Esplin Odell of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft told USA Today.

推动此新闻的是：冠状病毒大流行加速了美中关系的螺旋式下降。昆西责任治国方略研究所的雷切尔·埃斯普林·奥德尔（Rachel Esplin Odell）对“今日美国”说：“两国政府都试图从对方的失败中在本国牟利。”

First things first — no one actually wants another Cold War.

最重要的事—没有人真正想要另一场冷战。

China's leaders want to maintain the pre-Trump status quo, which for them means establishing dominance over key elements of the future global economy and society such as 5G and internet governance, and stamping out support for liberal democratic norms at home and undermining them abroad.

中共国领导人希望维持川普当选之前的状态，这对于他们来说意味着在未来全球经济和社会的关键要素（例如5G和互联网治理）上建立主导地位，并在国内根绝对自由民主规范准则的支持，并在国外削弱这些规范准则。

When Chinese government officials criticize what they explicitly call a "Cold War mentality" in the U.S., they aren't calling for an end to ideological competition or great power rivalry, but rather to U.S. attempts to stymie Beijing's plans.

当中共国政府官员批评在美国存在的他们明确称为“冷战思维”时，他们并不是在呼吁结束意识形态竞争或大国对抗，而是结束美国阻碍北京的计划。

China hawks in the U.S. aren't calling for a new Cold War either, but it's a risk they are willing to take in order to push back against an expansive authoritarian power.

针对中共国问题的美国鹰派人士也没有呼吁进行新冷战，但新冷战是他们愿意为了抵制扩张的威权主义势力而冒的风险。

As Senator Marco Rubio, a leading China hawk, told me in an interview for Axios on HBO, the relationship needs rebalancing but a new Cold War is "not the outcome we desire."

正如针对中共国问题的主导鹰派议员马可·卢比奥（Marco Rubio）在接受HBO频道的Axios纪录片采访时告诉我的那样，这种关系需要重新平衡，但是一场新冷战“不是我们想要的结果”。

Background: The Chinese Communist Party has two different messages — one intended for the rest of the world, and one intended for party members who govern the country.

背景：中国共产党有两套不同的信息-一套是针对世界其他地区的，另一套是针对统治该国党员的。

"If you read speeches that Xi Jinping would give at Davos, or at the Boao Forum, it would contain a lot more language about cooperation, mutual aid, and peaceful and respectful diplomacy between China and other countries, and China and the United States," Victor Shih, an associate professor of political economy at UC San Diego, told Axios.

加州大学圣地亚哥分校政治经济学副教授Victor Shih告诉Axios：“如果您阅读习近平在达沃斯或博鳌论坛上发表的讲话，这些讲话包含更多关于中国与其他国家以及中美之间合作、互助以及和平与尊重外交的论述。

"But if you look internally on foreign policy by Chinese leaders or Chinese experts and the government, those things tend to frame things as global competition between the U.S. and China."

“但是，如果从内部看中共国领导人或中共国专家与政府的外交政策，那些往往会将中美关系描述为中美之间的全球竞争。”

That helps explain why U.S. experts who blame the U.S. for firing the opening salvos of a new Cold War have largely misread the Chinese Communist Party's intentions.

这有助于解释为什么那些责备美国发动新冷战的美国专家们，在很大程度上误解了中国共产党的意图。

"China can best be understood as a regional power that seeks to reduce U.S. influence in its backyard and to increase its influence with its neighbors," wrote Haass.

哈斯写道：“对中共国最好的理解是，它是一个区域大国，旨在削弱美国在其后院的影响力，并增强其在邻国的影响力。”

What Xi really wants: In one key speech given to party members in 2017, for example, Chinese President Xi Jinping called for China to become “a global leader in terms of composite national strength and international influence" by the year 2035, and said that China is “moving closer to the center of the world stage."

习近平真正想要的是：例如，在2017年向共产党员的重要讲话中，习近平主席呼吁中共国在2035年之前成为“在综合国力和国际影响力方面的全球领导者”，并说中共国正在“越来越靠近世界舞台的中心”。

Xi is interested in a different kind of political and economic dominance, without taking on a U.S.-style mantle of responsibility, such as serving as the world's policeman.

习近平对另一种政治和经济主导地位感兴趣，却没有承担起美国式责任，例如担当世界警察。

Xi's emphasis on creating a "community of shared future for humanity" with China at its center highlights these global ambitions. This can't happen if a powerful U.S. stands in China's way.

习近平强调建立以中共国为中心的“人类命运共同体”，凸显了这些全球野心。如果强大的美国在其中阻碍，这是实现不了的。

"The challenge Beijing represents is not to Washington’s status in Asia, but to the nature of the global order’s predominant values," Dan Tobin, a faculty member in China Studies at the National Intelligence University, wrote in congressional testimony on March 13.

美国国家情报大学中国研究系主任丹·托宾在3月13日的国会证词中写道：“北京所代表的挑战不是对华盛顿在亚洲地位的挑战，而是对全球秩序的主流价值观的本质的挑战。”

"While this rivalry differs in many respects from the Cold War, one of the most important differences is that it is a competition to define the rules and norms that will govern an integrated, deeply connected world rather than a world divided into competing camps."

“尽管这种对抗在许多方面与冷战时期不同，但最重要的差异之一是，它是一场竞争，它要制定规则和规范来管理一个整合的、紧密联系的世界，而不是一个被划分为相互竞争阵营的世界。”

The bottom line: Some U.S. experts deny China's global ambitions, while others exaggerate its threat.

底线：一些美国专家否认中共国的全球野心，而另一些专家则夸大了中共国的威胁。

My thought bubble: Neither of these approaches are an effective response to the party's true intentions.

我的想法：这两种方法都不是对共产党真实意图的有效回应。

编辑【喜马拉雅战鹰团】