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新冠病毒将如何重塑美中关系? 【中英对照翻译】

新闻来源:pairagraph《对谈》;作者:Jeremy Goldkorn

翻译:TCC/Judy Anderson;简评/校对:TCC;Page:拱卒

简评:

中共病毒CCP Virus大瘟疫真的给人类带来了一记重棒、一响警钟!

虽然由郭文贵先生领导的爆料革命,在三年多前就已经不停的警告、呐喊关于中共的邪恶及其极独霸世界的野心,西方卻充耳不闻。一直到中共武汉疫情爆发后,将中共一群群可能感染的人们送到世界,引起大量人口感染及死亡(现在全球已经超过50万人死亡)后,才把这个自由世界在美梦中慢慢醒来,使自由世界真正开始认清了中共本质与威胁,开始面对这已经几乎被白蚁式侵蚀篓空的西方文化与价值观。

这是一篇访问稿,由戈德科恩访问斯伯丁将军关于新冠病毒对中美关系的影响。文中可以看出戈德科恩不是川普总统的支持者,也担心中美关系的恶化对美国人本身的伤害。但斯伯丁将军去直接了当地指明中国有两部分,党与人民。中国共产党并不代表中国人,他们是中共政权下的最大受害者。斯伯丁将军并指出现在对付中共集权的挑战,除了要从制药,财经,产业链等等多头径行来健全美国本身国家安全政策并应与盟国团结一起对抗这些挑战。最后并指出,中美脱钩是必要的,不然美国人将继续受到伤害。

原本美国天真的以为对中共开敞大门,中共会经由学习西方而改变,但对这与欧美自由分享世界基本价值观完全不同的中共是个痴人说梦。现在的美国就像一位糖尿病患者面对必须切除那已经坏疽的脚,脱钩是长痛不如短痛,必须的求生之路。

原文:

How Will COVID-19 Reshape U.S.-China Relations?

新冠病毒将如何重塑美中关系?

Genesis 创世纪

(GOLDKORN) The only single issue on which there is any bipartisan consensus in the United States right now is the need to get tough on China. U.S.-China relations were already at a low point before COVID-19. The pandemic is going to make them much worse.

(戈德科恩)目前,美国在两党之间所达成绝无仅有的共识是需要对中共国采取强硬态度。在新冠病毒大瘟疫之前,中美关系已经处于低谷。大瘟疫只会使此更加恶化。

This would be true even if the Trump administration was not trying to distract from its negligent handling of COVID-19. But the current rhetoric out of the White House (despite the president's stated affection for Xi Jinping) is leaving Trump's opponents little room to change course.

即使川普政府没有试图分散对新冠病毒的疏忽处理的注意,这说法也是正确的。但是白宫目前的言论(尽管总统表示对习近平有浓厚的感情)使川普的反对者几乎没有改变路线的余地。

Why were relations so bad, even before COVID-19? America has a number of legitimate grievances with China. To list just a few:

  • Unfair business practices and industrial policies including state subsidies and murky relationships with Chinese "champion" companies.
  • Militarization of the South China Sea.
  • Hacking and espionage.
  • Wholly nonreciprocal arrangements in a huge range of fields from investment to the treatment of journalists.
  • A hell's catalogue of human rights abuses including modern day concentration camps in Xinjiang that have interned more than a million Uyghurs, detention of lawyers, journalists, activists, and the steady destruction of civil society in China.

为什么在新冠病毒疫情之前的关系就已经如此糟糕?美国对中共国有许多合理的不满,以下仅列出一些:

  • 不公平的商业行为和产业政策,包括国家补贴和与中共国“冠军”公司的模糊关系。
  • 南中国海的军事化
  • 骇客和间谍活动。
  • 从投资到记者待遇,在各个领域都没做到互惠的安排。
  • 一张关于地狱的侵犯人权的目录,包括新疆的现代集中营,该集中营已经拘留了超过一百万的维吾尔族人,拘留了律师,记者,激进活动家,并在中国不断破坏着公民社会。

China's lack of transparency about COVID-19, and its aggressive propaganda and diplomatic efforts, have only aggravated the situation. I don't believe General Spalding would disagree with me about any of that. Where we perhaps differ is on what to do about it.

中共国对新冠病毒的缺乏透明度,以及其激进的宣传和外交努力,只会使局势恶化。我不相信斯伯丁将军在这方面与我持不同意见。我们对于该如何处理这是可能会有不同。

My fear is that the anti-China mood in Washington D.C., which a recent Pew survey indicates is now spreading throughout the country, is blinding us to the dangers ahead. We cannot simply decouple economically from China overnight, even if that was the best way forward. And does anyone really want a war, or even a financial war?

我担心的是,皮尤(Pew)最近的一项调查显示,华盛顿特区的反华情绪现在正在全国蔓延,这使我们忽视未来的危险。我们不能一夜之间就将经济与中共国脱钩,即使那是最好的方法。有人真的想战争发生吗?甚至是个金融战争?

I believe we need to put a lot more thought into what went wrong in the relationship and how to change it. I also think that we need to consider how our actions affect the choices the Chinese Communist Party and its leader Xi Jinping will make. There needs to be a strategy, not a shouting match. But right now, the one-note blame-China chorus is drowning out all other voices, to the detriment of our decision-making.

我相信我们需要对关系中出了什么问题以及如何改变它进行更多的思考。我还认为,我们需要考虑我们的行动如何影响中国共产党及其领导人习近平的选择。需要制定策略,而不是互喊。但是,现在,一致责备中共国的舆论淹没了所有其他意见,这不利于我们的决策。

Finally, the Trump administration is badly damaging what little shreds of credibility it had left by so vigorously promoting the "Wuhan lab" theory that American allies, including Australia and Britain, don't find tenable. This is also making the administration's claims of special knowledge of the dangers of Huawei less credible. All of this gives China the upper hand in promoting its propaganda to the world. It also makes the Chinese government even less likely to trust the U.S. government in trade — or any other kind — of negotiations in the future.

最后,川普政府如此大力推广“武汉实验室”理论,以至于包括澳大利亚和英国在内的美国盟国都站不住脚,这严重损害了它仅存的信誉。这也使得政府对华为危险性的特殊了解的主张变得不那么可信。所有这些使中共国在向世界宣传方面具有优势。这也使中国政府在未来的贸易谈判或任何其他形式的谈判中,甚至不太可能再相信美国政府。

So, in a phrase: COVID-19 is going to make U.S.-China relations much worse. And it will make it much more difficult for America to rally its friends and allies in any campaign to change China's behavior.

因此,用一句话来说:新冠病毒将使美中关系更加恶化。这将使美国在任何改变中共国行为的行动中要想集结其朋友和盟友将变得更加困难。

Response 应对措施

(SPALDING) The power of words is incredible. And using the right words is essential when talking about US-China relations. We are in a battle against the Chinese Communist Party, not China. To be fair, I know Jeremy knows this and is not against the Chinese people, and there are times when it’s simple to say China. But to me, it is essential that all understand there are two Chinas: The People and the Party. When speaking of issues like policy, propaganda, and the pandemic, it is the Party we blame.

(斯伯丁将军)文字的力量之大令人难以置信。在谈论美中关系时,使用正确的词语是至关重要。我们正在与中国共产党而不是中国作斗争。公平地说,我知道杰里米知道这一点的,并不是反对中国人民,而是有时候用“中国”一词简单点。但是对我来说,至关重要的是,所有人都应该知道有两个中国:人民和(中国共产)党。当谈到诸如政策,大外宣和大瘟疫等问题时,我们应归咎于”党”。

While I wholeheartedly agree with Jeremy’s assessment of the CCP’s lack of transparency, their moral, ethical and business violations, and their propaganda, I disagree that the “one-note blame-China chorus” of the Trump administration is having a swaying effect on the CCP. Our president and our political temperature are one bullet point in the epic-sized tome of CCP strategy.

尽管我完全地接受杰里米(Jeremy)对中共缺乏透明度,他们的道德,道德和商业违法行为以及他们的宣传的评估,但我不同意川普政府的“归究中共的一致说词”会对中共产生影响。我们的总统和我们的政治温度是对中共战略巨著的重点。

The strategy is years, if not decades, in the making. It began after Tiananmen and will continue long after whoever wins in 2020.

即使不是数十年,该(中共)策略已进行有年了,。它始于天安门之后,并将在2020年大选后持续进行。

The bottom line is the CCP regards our democracy, our Bill of Rights and our freedoms in the Constitution as a threat to their rule.

最重要的是,中共将我们的民主,我们的人权法案和我们在宪法中的自由视为对他们统治的威胁。

Document Number Nine describes this best when it states, “Promoting Western Constitutional Democracy: [Is] An attempt to undermine the current leadership and the socialism with Chinese characteristics system of governance.”

(中共)9号文件最恰当地描述了这一点:“促进西方宪政民主:[是]试图破坏当前的领导和具有中共国特色的社会主义的治理。”

Thus, it is not sufficient for the CCP to subjugate the Chinese people. It must also actively undermine constitutional democracy abroad, and prevent it infecting the Chinese people’s thoughts.

因此,中共征服中国人民是不够的。它还必须积极破坏国外的宪政民主,并防止其感染中国人民的思想。

The CCP goes on to say the Chinese people must be inoculated against this thought-virus. “Party members and governments of all levels must . . . make work in the ideological sphere a high priority in your daily agenda, routinely analyze and study new developments in the ideological sphere, react swiftly and effectively, and preemptively resolve all problems in the ideological sphere.”

中共接着说,中国人民必须接种以预防这种思想病毒。 “各级党员和政府必须。 。 。将思想领域的工作做为日程表上的重点,定期分析和研究思想领域的新发展,迅速有效地作出反应,并抢先解决思想领域中的所有问题。”

Other documents of relevance include: The CCP Constitution; The Tiananmen Papers; and The Xinjiang Papers.

其他相关文件包括:CCP宪法章程;天安门文件;和新疆文件等。

These documents allow glimpses of Chinese Communist Party intent. Scholars are left to surmise the true intentions and nature of the CCP from various interviews and anecdotes that have been leaked or discovered. The failure to tell the true story of the CCP and the Chinese people has enabled the CCP to capture and control the narrative. Those allowed to “tell China’s story well” from outside the Great Firewall, and who weigh the reward of a Mainland visa over telling the truth of the CCP are complicit as well. The better we understand the nature of the regime, the safer all democracies will be.

这些文件可以一眼看出中共的意图。学者们不得不通过各种采访和轶事的泄露或发现来推测中共的真实意图和其本性。未能讲述中共和中国人民的真实故事,使中共得以捕捉和控制说词。那些被允许在大防火墙之外“很好地”讲述中共国故事 的,并且重视大陆签证奖励重于揭发中共真相的人也是同谋。我们对政权的性质了解得越多,所有民主国家就越安全。

Penultimate 倒数第二次警告

(GOLDKORN) I agree that China and the Chinese people are not the same as the Communist Party, and that it is the Party to blame for most of the problems in U.S.-China relations.

(戈德科恩)我同意中国和中国人民与共产党不同,在美中关系中大多数问题应归咎于该党。

However, the current tensions between the two countries are already hurting people and businesses — both American and Chinese. Whether you blame the worsening relations between the two countries on the CCP, or Trump, or American companies that have worked too closely with the Chinese government, the end result will be the same.

但是,当前两国之间的紧张局势已经在伤害着美国和中国的人民和企业。无论您是将中美关系恶化的责任归咎于中共,川普,还是与中共国政府合作过紧密的美国公司,最终结果都是一样的。

"Decoupling" and a "new cold war" are two of the most common characterizations of relations between the U.S. and China, and post COVID-19, we will hear those words much more frequently in the American media and mouths of our politicians. This will mean greater pain for companies, families and the many American and Chinese non-Party member people who have deep emotional, financial, and personal relationships in and with both countries.

“脱钩”和“新冷战”是中美关系的两个最常见的字眼,在新冠状病毒之后,我们将在美国媒体和政界人士口中更常听到这些话。这将给在两国之间以及与两国有着深厚情感,财务和个人关系的公司,家庭以及许多美国和中国非党派民众带来更大的痛苦。

So, I feel the need to repeat my question from the "Genesis" part of this exchange. I don't believe General Spalding would disagree with me about any of that. Where we perhaps differ is on what to do about it.

因此,我觉得有必要重复我在这次交流的“开场白”部分中的问题。我不相信斯伯丁将军在

这方面会与我有异议。我们可能不同之处在于该如何处理。

I believe that the current administration's strategy is no strategy at all, but rather arbitrary acts of hostility that make no distinction between the Communist Party and Chinese people, and take no regard of the harm that is being done to American people and business.

我相信,现任政府的战略是完全零战略,只是随兴的敌对行为,这种行为是不分共产党或是中国人民的,也不考虑会对美国人民和企业造成的伤害。

Finale 结束语

(Spalding) To answer the original question, how will coronavirus reshape relations, I need to touch upon Jeremy’s comment about a lack of strategy.

(斯伯丁将军)要回答最初的问题,"冠状病毒将如何重塑美中关系",我得谈谈杰里米关于缺乏策略的评论。

In December 2017, our National Security Strategy laid out the exact way we should answer all the questions. The problem from the beginning has been the inability of the DC Establishment to understand the NSS.

2017年12月,我们的《国家安全战略》(NSS)确定了我们应回答所有问题的确切方式。问题从一开始就是华盛顿那些资深政客无法理解NSS。

The important parts in the NSS have been completely missed. Not by the federal bureaucracy since they are tasked to implement it, but by most of DC and the media. Consequently, the rest of the world has failed to appreciate the NSS’s call to action.

NSS中的重要部分已被完全忽略。不是被只负责执行的联邦官僚机构,而是被大多数的华盛顿政客和媒体所忽略。因此,世界其他地区未能理解NSS的行动号召。

The NSS is based on “American principles, a clear-eyed assessment of U.S. interests.” This meant we had to ensure that we were promoting freedom of speech and religion, rule of law and free trade. It was also a recognition that we had stopped promoting these principles abroad, and instead had left the educating and advocating to 21st century authoritarians, like the CCP.

這国家安全战略是基于“对美国利益的清晰评估的美国原则”。这意味着我们必须确保我們一直促进的言论和宗教自由,法治和自由贸易。它也承认我们已经停止向国外推广这些原则,並已将教育和提倡(这些原则)的工作交给了21世纪如中共的专制主义者。

The NSS recognizes competition is not just about bombs and bullets, but rather 1s and 0s, dollars and cents. Authoritarian states were “determined to make economies less free and less fair, to grow their militaries, and to control information and data to repress their societies and expand their influence.” Thus, economics and data are the key new domains of competition defined in the strategy.

国家安全战略意识到竞争不仅涉及炸弹和子弹,还涉及电脑科技,经济金融。威权国家“决心让经济变得不自由不公平,发展其军事力量,并控制信息和数据以压制其社会并扩大其影响力。”因此,经济和数据是该战略中所定义的竞争的关键新领域。

This meant that the US had to take a different approach to competition, because “policies based on the assumption that engagement with rivals and their inclusion in international institutions and global commerce would turn them into benign actors and trustworthy partners” – our strategy toward the CCP since 1989 – was naïve at best.

这意味着美国必须采取不同的竞争方式,因为我们自1989年以来对中共的战略极其幼稚。我们的政策“基于以下假设:与竞争对手的接触及将其纳入国际机构和全球商业中,将使他们成为良性行为者和可信赖的伙伴”。

To do so, the US “must work with like-minded allies and partners to ensure our principles prevail and the rules are enforced so that our economies prosper.” That is why after the NSS was released, the NSC and State Department began approaching allies and partners bilaterally to advocate for a new approach to authoritarian regimes like CCP-led China. And Allies are responding. More and more of America’s allies are choosing to address the challenges posed by the CCP by saying no to Huawei and examining Chinese investments. And in our post-coronavirus world, the US and her Allies, are witnessing in real time what the control of information and lack of transparency on the part of an authoritarian regime leads to—chaos.

为此,美国“必须与志同道合的盟国和伙伴合作,以确保我们的原则占上风,并执行规则,以使我们的经济繁荣。”这就是为什么在国家安全战略发布后,国家安全委员会和国务院开始与盟国和伙伴进行双边接触,以倡导对中共领导的中共国等威权政权采取新的方法。我们的盟国正在回应。越来越多的美国盟友选择应对中共提出的挑战,对华为说不,并审视中共国的投资。在我们的后冠状病毒世界中,美国及其盟国正无时无刻地目睹著独裁政权对信息的控制和缺乏透明度所导致的乱象。

Americans are hurting not because of a lack of strategy but because of reliance on a hostile dictatorship for key industries like manufacturing, pharmacy, and telecommunications. The NSS was written to counter this, and while there is more to do, after three years the policies are working.

美国人之所以受到伤害,不是因为缺乏战略,而是因为在制造业,制药业和电信业等关键行业对敌对的独裁统治太过依赖。 NSS就是为应对这一问题而编写的,尽管还有很多工作要做,但在实行三年后该政策开始生效了。

Recognition of the challenge is growing. Mothballed authorities like the Defense Production Act are being dusted off and put to use. Others like CFIUS have been revamped. The NSS “promotes policies and incentives that return key national security industries to American shores.” It seeks to grow local talent by supporting “STEM efforts, at the Federal and state levels.” It goes on to say “the United States will prioritize emerging technologies critical to economic growth and security, such as data science, encryption, autonomous technologies, gene editing, new materials, nanotechnology, advanced computing technologies, and artificial intelligence.”

(我們)在认清挑战上正不斷地增强。像《国防生产法》这样封存的权威法被除尘并投入使用。其他诸如外国投资委员会已被改头换面。 国家安全战略提供促进政策和激励措施将关键的国家安全产业带回美国本土。”它寻求通过支持“联邦和州级的科技工程数学领域的努力”来培养本地人才。它继续说:“美国将优先考虑对经济增长和安全至关重要的新兴技术,例如数据科学,加密,自主技术,基因编辑,新材料,纳米技术,先进的计算技术和人工智能。”

Therefore yes, Jeremy, there is a strategy, and it is working. Americans have been hurt because of the CCP’s incessant predatory economic aggression, resulting in millions of jobs lost. Communities flooded with drugs that have killed tens of thousands are the result of the CCP’s willingness to allow its pharmaceutical factories to produce fentanyl and ship it to the US. And of course, the global coronavirus pandemic, killing more tens of thousands, creating record unemployment and staggering hardship for millions.

因此,是的,杰里米(Jeremy),是有一个策略,而且正在奏效。由于中共不断掠夺性的经济侵略,美国人受到了伤害,导致数百万的工作机会流失。在中共允许下制药厂生产芬太尼并将其运往美国,导致大量毒品在社区泛滥,杀害成千上万人。当然,全球冠状病毒大瘟疫,造成成千上万人丧生,创造了创纪录的失业率,并为数百万人带来了巨大的艰辛。

It is important to decouple because Americans have been and continue to be hurt. There is a thoughtful strategy that seeks to offer the CCP a new path forward. They have to this point decided not to accept. They may never decide to accept, and that will be ok, because for once we have a path that restores America to what she was intended – a harbor for democracy and shelter against the authoritarian storm.

脱钩很重要,因为美国人一直受到伤害并继续受到伤害。有一个深思熟虑的策略是试图为中共提供一条新的前进道路。目前看來,他们决定不接受。他们可能永远不会决定接受,那也没问题,因为我们已经有一条路让美国恢复到她原本面貌–一個民主的港湾和抵抗专制风暴的庇护所。

编辑:【喜马拉雅战鹰团】Edited by:【Himalaya Hawk Squad】