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港币还能硬多久 【中英对照翻译】

新闻来源:BloombergOpinion《彭博观点》;作者:Mark Gilbert马克·吉尔伯特;发布时间:10 July 2020 / 2020年7月10日

翻译/简评:仙女儿-文善;校对:海阔天空;Page:拱卒

简评:

海曼资本管理有限公司首席投资官凯尔·巴斯从2020年5月份开始集结资本以200倍杠杆做空港币,为期18个月。业界有人将巴斯此次的做空类比与亿万富豪乔治·索罗斯(George Soros),认为索罗斯在在1998年亚洲金融危机期间做空港币失败,巴斯也不能成功。当年索罗斯与中共是否有幕后交易不得而知,但今天的香港与昔日的香港今非昔比。

此番凯尔·巴斯先生的做空港币,其信心是基于23年来港币在CCP的暗箱操作下被大量超发的事实,而最近中共国在香港强制实施的“宇宙第一法”国安法,更是对虚假繁荣的香港经济与伪坚挺的港币的雪上加霜。1997的中共还可以违规动用大陆储备金保港币,如今中共国经济的三架马车都已散架,CCP虚假的数字与粉饰的太平经不起任何推敲和质疑。从香港港交所宕机事件足以看出香港的虚假经济、键盘经济和电脑经济,港币的坚挺不过是中共蔑视市场规则胡作非为的结果。当一切正义力量已经开始,CCP的一切假恶丑注定灰飞烟灭。

可叹美国享有盛誉的彭博社,对巴斯的报道如此负面,不知道是彭博过于幼稚,不能识别中共彻彻底底的以假治国,看不清香港在失去法治与自治之后的经济前景,看不清美国要对中共与港共进行的雷霆制裁?还是彭博深受中共“恩宠“,在邪共快要灭亡之际又出来为中共摇旗呐喊、混淆视听、转移视线?无论如何,这些无良媒体最终都要受到正义的审判!

原文:

Kyle Bass Takes on a Widowmaker Currency Trade

凯尔·巴斯(Kyle Bass)进行寡妇制造商货币交易

Betting against the Hong Kong Dollar hasn’t worked for decades. This time doesn’t look any different.

数十年来,做空港币的做法都行不通。 这次看起来没有什么不同。

Kyle Bass, chief investment officer of Hayman Capital Management LP. 凯尔·巴斯(Kyle Bass),海曼资本管理有限公司(Hayman Capital Management LP)首席投资官。Photographer: Patrick T. Fallon/Bloomberg 摄影师:帕特里克·T·法伦(Patrick T. Fallon) /彭博社

Hong Kong has maintained a strict relationship between its currency and the U.S. dollar since 1983. The Hong Kong Monetary Authority has intervened whenever the Hong Kong dollar has threatened to breach a designated trading band, most recently set in 2005 at HK$7.75 to HK$7.85. As other fixed-currency regimes have come and gone, this one has been phenomenally successful.

自1983年以来,香港一直保持其货币与美元之间的一种严格关系。只要港币受到威胁要突破其指定的交易区间,香港金融管理局便会进行干预,最近的交易区间是2005年设定的7.75至7.85港币。 随着其他固定汇率制度的出现和消失,这一制度取得了令人惊讶的成功。

Nevertheless, hedge fund manager Kyle Bass reckons its days are numbered.

不过,对冲基金经理凯尔·巴斯(Kyle Bass)认为这种货币管理体系气数将尽。

Total Control

全面控制

The Hong Kong Monetary Authority has kept its currency in a strict trading range against the U.S. dollar for decades.

香港金融管理局数十年来一直将其货币对美元维持在一个严格的交易区间内。

A few months ago, Bass began soliciting potential investors for a new fund planned to start on June 1 that would make a winner-takes-all bet against the Hong Kong dollar. His firm, Hayman Capital Management LP, plans to leverage the wager by 200 times, using the options market. Investors stand to make 64 times their money should the Hong Kong currency decline by 40% against its U.S. counterpart. But the downside is 100%; if the peg remains intact after 18 months, they’ll lose everything.

几个月前,凯尔·巴斯(Bass)开始向潜在投资者招募计划于6月1日启动的新基金,该基金将进行“赢者通吃”、做空港币的押注。他的公司海曼资本管理有限公司(Hayman Capital Management LP)计划利用期权市场将赌注提高200倍。 如果港币兑美元贬值40%,投资者将会取得64倍的收益。 反之,输者将失去100%的投注; 如果这个汇率指标在18个月后仍然保持原位不动,他们将失去所有。

Bass isn’t the first money manager trying to make a profit from betting against the peg. Billionaire investor George Soros made a similar bet in 1998, during the Asian financial crisis. He failed. “They actually did a very good job defending the Hong Kong dollar,” he conceded in 2009.

凯尔·巴斯(Bass)并不是第一个试图通过做空盯住美元而获利的基金管理公司。亿万富翁投资者乔治·索罗斯(George Soros)在1998年亚洲金融危机期间也做了类似的押注。 他失败了。 他在2009年承认:“他们实际上在捍卫港币方面做得非常出色。”

London-based hedge fund manager Crispin Odey spent two years running the trade before abandoning it in mid-2018. “There are lots of good bets around,” he told my Bloomberg News colleague Nishant Kumar in August. “Hong Kong dollar is not there.” And as anti-government protests engulfed Hong Kong last year, other hedge funds began to speculate that capital would flee and undermine the currency fix.

伦敦对冲基金经理克里斯平·奥迪(Crispin Odey)花了两年的时间经营这个交易,然后于2018年年中将其放弃。他在8月告诉彭博新闻社同事Nishant Kumar,“周围有很多不错的投注选择,” “而港币不在其中。” 去年,随着反政府抗议活动席卷香港,其他对冲基金开始推测,资本将逃离并破坏其货币固定汇率。

But even as a geopolitical row escalates over China’s recent imposition of laws that restrict political criticism in the former British colony, the currency is gaining rather than declining. The HKMA sold HK$13.4 billion ($1.7 billion) on Thursday, buying U.S. dollars to prevent its own currency from strengthening, my Bloomberg News colleague Sofia Horta e Costa reported. In total, the city’s de facto central bank has spent $13.5 billion this year to stop the local currency from breaching its maximum permitted value of HK$7.75.

但就在最近中共国实施法律限制在这个前英国殖民地的政治批评之际,地缘政治争端升级,港币却在升值而不是贬值。 据彭博新闻社同事索非亚·奥尔塔·科斯塔(Sofia Horta e Costa)报道,香港金融管理局(HKMA)周四卖出了134亿港币(合17亿美元)来购买美元,以防止港币走强。 总体而言,香港的央行今年已经花费了135亿美元,以阻止港币突破其最高允许价值7.75港元。

Stronger, Not Weaker

更强,不是更弱

The Hong Kong dollar has spent the past few months bumping against its strongest permitted value against the U.S. dollar.

过去数月来,港币一直在冲击其兑美元的最高允许汇率。

That renewed test of its upper trading limit comes even after Bloomberg News reported Wednesday that advisers to President Donald Trump have argued in favor of undermining the peg to retaliate against China. The currency market seems to be concurring with the economists and traders who reckon market hostility won’t break out between the U.S. and China, arguing it would mostly hurt Hong Kong’s banks rather than China.

彭博新闻社周三报道了关于唐纳德·川普总统(Donald Trump)的顾问已经主张支持通过削弱联系汇率制度来报复中共国。在此之后,香港金管局仍然对交易上限进行了重新测试。 一些经济学家和交易员认为,市场敌对情绪不会在美国和中共国之间爆发,他们认为这将主要损害香港的银行而不是中共国的银行。

Moreover, risk reversals — the difference in volatility between calls and puts that indicates where options traders are anticipating a currency’s value will head — suggest there’s minimal speculation about the Hong Kong dollar breaking its range, and less than there was either a few months ago or last year.

此外,风险逆转-看涨期权和看跌期权之间的波动率差异表明,期权交易者要预判货币价值将往何处发展-意味着人们对港币会突破其界定区间有着极微的预期,而且远低于几个月前或是去年。

All Calm on the Currency Front

货币方面的一切平静

Options traders haven't raised their bets on the Hong Kong dollar breaking its link with the U.S. dollar.

期权交易商并未加大对港币与美元断链的赌注。

Bass, who said in January that Hong Kong faces “a full-fledged banking crisis” this year, has been betting against the currency peg since at least May 2019. So far, he isn’t faring any better than his predecessors. The widowmaking trade is striking again.

凯尔·巴斯(Bass)在今年1月份表示,香港今年将面临“全面的银行业危机”。他至少从2019年5月开始就一直在押注港币与美元脱钩。到目前为止,他的表现并没有比他的前任更好。 这次寡妇制造者交易再一次令世人震惊。

This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.

本专栏不一定反映编辑部或彭博社及其所有者的观点。

注释:在金融市场上,寡妇制造者指的是一种会导致巨大甚至是灾难性损失的交易。寡妇制造者也可以指市场反复扰乱市场共识,甚至颠覆历史模式,导致每个尝试这种交易的人都遭受损失的交易。

编辑:【喜马拉雅战鹰团】Edited by:【Himalaya Hawk Squad】